Flagler County ended 2023 with an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent and an average unemployment rate of 3.5 percent for the year, down slightly from the average of 3.6 percent in 2022. Flagler County’s seasonally unadjusted December unemployment rate, released this morning by the state Department of Commerce, is the 12th highest in the state. While the monthly report indicates continued healthy employment, it also hints at a couple o concerning underlying trends, with a slow-down in the growth of Flagler’s workforce and a significant jump in the number of people collecting unemployment.
St. Johns County continues to be among the stronger-performing areas, with an unemployment rate o 2.6 percent, capping a year when the rate never went above 2.8 percent, and bottomed out at 2 percent last April. But for an uptick to 3.3 percent in January 2022, St. Johns’ performance this year was a mirror image of its performance in 2022.
The December rate in Volusia was 3.3 percent, and in Putnam it was 4.1 percent. The rates are calculated not based on the number of jobs in a county, but on the number of residents in that county holding jobs. So if a Flagler County resident works in Volusia, St. Johns or Putnam, as thousands do, that employment is counted in the Flagler County employment figures.
Flagler County’s labor force grew by 2.6 percent in 2023, to 52,459 by December. But that was the slowest growth rate since 2020, the year of Covid, when it shrank by 3.2 percent. It more than made up that loss the next year, growing by 4.4 percent in 2021. It grew by 3.1 percent in 2022, crossing the 50,000 threshold for the first time that March. The labor force is an indicator of working-age individuals and families. Notably, Flagler County still has a comparatively small labor force compared to its overall population of 126,700, as estimated by the Census Bureau last July. The labor force, in other words, is 41 percent of the overall population, with 16 percent under 18 and 31.4 percent over 65. Statewide, 19.3 percent are under 18 and 21.6 percent are over 65.
While the labor force grew again in Flagler in 2023, so did te number of people without jobs: from 1,648 at the beginning of the year to 1,958 by December, a substantial, if not worrisome, 18 percent jump after big reductions in 2021 and 2022, as the county and the state were recouping the jobs lost to Covid. To be recorded as holding a job, an individual need only work for an hour during the pay period analyzed: the figures don’t distinguish between part time and full time jobs, and include all kinds of jobs, including those held remotely.
As for the unemployment figure, that only reflects the people who are following through on the state’s rigorous demands that qualifies them for unemployment checks–the stingiest checks in the nation, for the briefest period. Once individuals are no longer collecting unemployment, they are no longer considered unemployed, which artificially depresses the unemployment figure. The federal government does calculate the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the labor force–discouraged workers who have stopped looking. That alternative measure of unemployment and under-employment places Florida’s rate at 5.8 percent, compared to 6.8 percent for the country.
The Florida unemployment rate in December was 3 percent, up 0.1 perce t over November, and up 0.3 percent since the beginning of the year, with 334,000 Floridians collecting unemployment. The state added 16,500 jobs in December and 140,600 jobs over the year. Month-over-month, the state added jobs in manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, transportation and professional services, and tourism, but lost jobs in construction, finance, insurance, private education and health services and waste management and state and local government.
Consumer confidence in the state went up for the third consecutive month in December, to 69.5 points, while the national consumer confidence rate surged by 8.4 percent according to the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Yet that too, masks underlying concerns.
“Though consumer sentiment among Floridians ended 2023 on a positive note, the annual average consumer confidence stands at 67.9 points for the year,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at the Bureau. “This marks the third-lowest level on record since the series began tracking consumer confidence in 1985. The lowest on record was 64.3 in 2022, while the second lowest was 65.6 points, dating back to the Great Recession in 2008.”
People who are better off are more confident, but expectations of personal finances a year from now showed the steepest decline in this month’s reading, tumbling 4.1 points from 85.7 to 81.6, the bureau reported in a release. These pessimistic views were shared by all Floridians but were particularly strong among women and people 60 and older.
“This scenario, characterized by low unemployment, moderated job gains, and easing inflation, aligns with what is referred to as a ‘soft landing,’ where inflation cools without triggering a recession. Importantly, the current economic outlook indicates that 2023 is concluding without a recession,” Sandoval said.
Papoy says
That’s because Alfin , Klufas and company want a booming residential county and have failed to bring any businesses to Palm Coast.
Shark says
Alfin has to build more storage facilities !!!
TR says
They are talking about the entire states of Florida, not just Palm Coast. There hasn’t been any real job opportunity in Flagler County for years based on the number of workable people that live here. The only real jobs here are The hospitals and the Brunswick boat manufacturing, which use to be SeaRay boats. Which I believe was a branch boat company of Brunswick. I would venture to guess that 80% of jobs here is Flagler are stepping stone jobs. Who ever said the economy is doing great based on this news? Liars.
Tony says
You are absolutely right. Alfin is a realtor.
Ray W. says
Given that no one on this site has claimed that the local economy is doing “great” thus far, you are safe from any lying liars on this site. No one is lying about the health of the local economy. Personally, from the facts gleaned from the report issued by the state’s Department of Commerce, it is safe to say that the economy has been moving in a positive direction for several years now. In a good/better/best, bad/worse/worst world, it is truthful to argue that the local economy is good for the circumstances. Perhaps it will get better. Maybe it will get worse.
Yes, you are right to decry the lack of a broad manufacturing base. Yes, many of the available jobs can be considered steppingstone jobs. The question is why that is?
In the 1970 census, Flagler County was home to some 12 or 13 thousand people. The economy was agricultural and timber-related, with limited opportunities in the hospitality industry (restaurants and motels). Tourism was almost non-existent. Manufacturing consisted of local welders and fabricators. ICDC owned the land, but it had not yet been mapped, platted and recorded as individual lots. Roads were being paved to handle future growth in the ICDC planned communities, yet economic opportunities were really limited.
Today, with over 30% of the population over the age of 65 (an unusually high percentage), the medical sector has grown. Many of the elderly are retirees, with some living on fixed incomes. Certainly, the hospitality sector has grown. The legal community has grown by leaps and bounds. The day tripper tourist (within a 75-mile radius) often decides on the spur of the moment to visit in order to eat in the many fine restaurants and enjoy special events, but that is a sporadic market. Make no mistake, though, the primary driver of the economy over the past 50 years has been residential and commercial construction and road grading and paving. These sectors are remarkably prone to boom-and-bust cycles, often driven by national economic trends. Flagler County has come a long way, though not always for the better.
Have you, TR, ever considered the possibility that you suffer from jaundiced eye syndrome?
Expecting major manufacturing companies to relocate to Flagler County is a valid hope, but manufacturers look for an ample well-trained employee base and large economic incentives to relocate. Given the steady long-term drop in fertility rates among the young nationwide and given the large elderly population here, we simply are not adding enough young people to the overall employee pool. Right now, if it weren’t for immigration, America’s population would be dropping, however slightly, right now, with expectations of an accelerating population loss in the long term. We simply need more immigrants to supply businesses with enough young workers to grow. China has this problem right now. Japan and Korea, too. Most of the EU countries have fertility rates below the replacement level. The latest national posted job openings report lists just under 9 million unfilled job openings. Just how much better would our national economy be if we had enough workers to cater to the needs of employers? Where are the workers going to come from? Where is the economic growth triggered by young workers coming into the job market going to come from? Who is going to start the small businesses that are so necessary to our economy?
The dude says
Gosh… if only the powers that run the county and city were at all interested in bringing real jobs here, like technology and manufacturing… think of the possibilities.
Instead they want the status quo, an economy centered around olds with cush retirements and an endless stream of grifters and conmen selling handyman services, free roofs, and lawn care to a largely helpless and incapable population.
Oh and storage spaces… lots and lots of those.
FlaPharmTech says
Agreed. Add solar power sales reps knocking on doors. Hmmmmm…perhaps I should try it? Pharmacy is dead end drivel.
Tony says
If many businesses are looking for help, why is the unemployment rate not lower? People should be working and not collecting.
Dennis C Rathsam says
All I read on Flagler Live is how the good people of P/C, are fed up with Stuff Em In Alvin! aka the realator from hell. Folks, U have the hammer….use it! Its time we had a mayor that listens to the people, not someone with his own hiddin agenda. He has plenty of time fix the traffic problem, not one thing has been done. Our water & garbage bill continues to escalate, with no end in site, nor a plan! Alvin, and his merry fools on the council, need to go. Theses so called leaders, are killing seniors with all these price increases. My pension & SS dont clime like city services do. Dont they realize, we cant continue to pay these high prices for water, & garbage? Many comunities give discounts for senoirs over 65. We use less water, we make less garbage. But it looks like P/C is trying is looking to kick us out now. We cant afford all these new increace,s in services. They dont care about us, its all about money, & how to get thier greedy little hands on more of it!