Before Hurricanes Matthew, Irma and Dorian approached Flagler County in three of the past four years, the county scrambled to take protective measures on massive scales, as did most counties in the state, as did the Panhandle when Hurricane Michael struck the one year we didn’t have one here. The preceding warnings from local and state officials, including two governors, were dire, intended to scare people into complying with precautions, sheltering in place in most counties, evacuations in others.
The emergencies were disruptive, closing schools and businesses and altering lives, not just before the hurricanes neared, but even after they’d long passed, with power cuts lasting a week after Matthew and Irma. But even Hurricane Michael, which was extremely powerful but found the path least inhabited in the Panhandle, the expected disasters did not take place. Flagler had at various points feared a direct hit from Matthew and Dorian. A nearly imperceptible shift in Matthew’s path and a slightly more pronounced for Dorian one could have obliterated Flagler Beach. But both followed nearly the same path, wobbling just enough offshore to spare Flagler Beach and Palm Coast anything like a direct hit, even if both left enough damage as it was.
Yet for days, various models had predicted a direct hit, either here or not far from here. We had the European model, the American model, and dozens of models on top of those, creating the famous spaghetti effect, with outliers and everything in between. The American model was a synthesis of many others, producing NOAA’s famous cone of uncertainty–a modern equivalent to the oracle at Delphi.
Were the models wrong? At various points in the hurricanes’ paths, some of them proved wildly wrong, some of them not nearly so, some of them ultimately proving quite accurate as the forecast window narrowed, and one or two, such as the European model, were uncannily accurate even at several days’ remove.
Does that mean models are useless? Of course not. The models did their job. They’re never presented as dogmatic truths from some meteorological pulpit. They’re presented as probable paths, with that famous cone of uncertainty extending far and wide to account for any hurricane’s temperamental character and serve primarily as warning systems, not predictors of certainties. Officials use them to make sure we take precautions and to minimize loss of life.
The same principle applies to modeling a virus’ potential in a pandemic, though unlike hurricane forecasters, who’ve been dealing with the same set of data and variables for decades, scientists have less reliable data to go on with the novel coronavirus, and minimal historical data to gauge the effects of social distancing.
So it’s been strange to see Gov. Ron DeSantis ridicule Covid-19 models since late April, and more especially last Thursday, when he announced his otherwise cautious plan to reopen the state. His overblown rhetoric about the models, as if he were looking for an enemy or a scapegoat, did not match his commendable caution. Nor did it match his own reliance on those same models weeks earlier, when he used them to impress on Floridians the urgency of closing things down and sheltering–just as he would on the approach of what could have been the most dangerous hurricane in the state’s history.
As it is, the coronavirus emergency hasn’t been less than that. Hurricane Covid has so far caused more deaths in Florida alone–1,539 at this writing–than all hurricanes combined everywhere in the United States in at least the last 20 years, with the exception of Hurricane Katrina, which took about as many lives. That’s the official count, though the actual count is certain already to be much higher. By the time the tally is over, deaths are expected to be double or triple the current tally. That’s just for Florida.
So the governor’s triumphal show of charts and chest-thumping last week and his ridicule of what he considers unjustified fear is not only at odds with the actual death toll, but also with the alternative reality he’s re-imagining. Is he regretting following the models’ lead? Is he suggesting that Florida should not have shut down after Covid made landfall in South Florida, and accelerated through visitors from the New York region? The models he’s been picking on since last week in any case were the outliers (“The governor used some really extreme examples that I would say, wow, that wasn’t observed anywhere to that degree,” Daryl Tol, president and CEO of AdventHealth Central Florida division, said in a news conference the day after the governor’s announcement on opening)–a clever bit of intellectual dishonesty befitting DeSantis’s lawyerly skills but not the public he serves. He never acknowledged that the good models change daily, with new data. Nor did he acknowledge that he was citing models dating back to before social distancing rules were imposed–the very same rules that were intended to reduce the models’ projections, and that, in fact, did the job.
“The smartest models are updated every day or every few days,” Tol said. “The fact they shift is because they’re smart, not because they’re wrong. If they didn’t shift, there’d be a major flaw in the model. The great thing is human actions and leadership actions shift models because human actions change reality and reality changes the models…. I think you’d want us to be prepared. We’re the kind of place that isn’t going to say, well, the hurricane will turn away. We’re the kind of place that’s going to say: all right, if it hits us, will we be ready? And that’s how we’ve used models.”
To discredit models is as absurd as if DeSantis were to discredit public health agency recommendations or their army of contact tracers. Why he felt the need to do so suggests a couple of impulses are at work: he wants to ensure a safe reopening of society. That’s not in doubt, and so far he’s taking a more responsible approach than a few other, more hurried states. But his attacks on models also panders to the appealing but false logic that because the models’ predictions didn’t come true, the models were wrong. He’s been quieter this week since models have again shifted. One of the more reliable models raised the tally of expected cases and deaths in Florida to nearly 4,000 now that the state is moving, however carefully, toward reopening. The national tally is in the 130,000 range, nearly double today’s total of 74,000.
I doubt DeSantis will be ridiculing the next models come hurricane season, or the next Covid wave, should there be one, though he’s doing a good job of undermining their validity, and along the way undermining the mission of public health and emergency management workers. Unless of course he thinks that, whatever the models did or did not say, 1,539 dead Floridians is something to brag about.
Pierre Tristam is FlaglerLive’s editor. Reach him by email here. A version of this piece aired on WNZF.
LetThemEatCake says
People that ridicule the models, do not understand standard deviation and how probability works. They see the numbers shift and they second guess the validity of what science says. DeSantis is not a man of science. Most politicians are not. They trust one model–the model of public opinion, typically who they view as THEIR public and not the general population as a whole. The reason social distancing works is because you keep the virus from having the ability to find a new host. That’s what a virus wants, to live forever in host after host after host. With COVID having up to 14-days of incubation or longer, the virus can maximize it’s spread potentially undetected. It takes its time learning your specific immune system and how it differs from other’s it’s been in and learns about the host. This is how viruses mutate–they learn, they modify, they attack, in simple terms. A flattened curve is not the end of the problem, it is merely a plateau, a stabilization of the rate of infection. Any change in the practices that led to the flattening of the curve (variables), will change future models, which is why some are showing increases in deaths and rates of infection. Social distancing is such a variable, keep it in place and the curve flattens and eventually goes on a downslope. Relax that variable and the models swing the other way.
I think what they are missing about FL is the Miami Herald article about this moving through Central and North FL from Dec through Feb. This possibly infected many of us during those months when we thought it was just the flu or a upper respiratory infection or bronchitis or pneumonia, when it was COVID or COVID caused. That’s why, regardless of the efficacy of the antibody tests for immunity, it’s important to test the entirety of Flagler County that did not receive a previous positive COVID test. Immunity is a moot point. It is not permanent. This is not polio or measles where the genetic structure doesn’t change. The family this virus comes from does mutate, so any significant mutations outside of what you’re protected from, will potentially cause reinfection. There are tests out there that are good, solid tests that will give Flagler County a good idea of how many people were infected with COVID. I hope they seriously consider antibody testing. No one is safe from this forever, it will never go away because there are too many strains, and it’s too rooted in the global population. It will be like many of the other coronaviruses that cause common colds, just another potential way for you to get sick. This virus has already proved it’s smart. It will not let a vaccine stop it from existing. However, if we know how many people have antibodies here, it will help us tailor a long-term plan, and notice any flareups from people being reinfected and stop them before they get out of hand.
Opening Wary Optimist says
Perfectly stated.
Doc W says
In my view, we need the President and Governor to do far more truth telling. We can handle the truth but the country is bitterly divided due to the lack of reliable information regarding almost every aspect of Covid-19. This is a war and we have a President and a Governor who do not trust us with the facts. The lack of factual information coming from both causes cable news outlets to offer their opinions which are not facts. The suspicion, mistrust and disunity that has emerged everywhere in our country could be greatly reduced if the President and Governor would provide the genuine facts about where we are and where we are going.
The President and Governor spend most of their briefings lashing out at the media, self congratulating, and blaming. They seem to loathe the idea that the role of the media is to hold government accountable (Viet Nam, Watergate, The Pentagon Papers,) The press is not there to be government cheerleaders. The economy will recover only when workers know it is safe to go to work and customers feel safe resuming our prior routines and most polls shows the vast majority of the country does not feel ready to do either. And telling us the truth will be the key going forward.
Here are a few facts according to John Hopkins Covid 19 website. The USA has approximately 4% of the world’s population. The USA has approximately 30% of the world’s Covid-19 cases. And tragically, the USA has approximately 25% of the world’s Covid -19 deaths. This an “amazing success story” and “we have done everything right.”?
“Perfectionism is trying to get the world to believe something about you, that you don’t believe about you.” – Anon
ReplyForward
jake says
Yeah, because you believe the rest of “the world” and presume they are providing accurate data. They do not, and will not. You think China had less deaths than us, in a country of over a billion people, four times the population of the U.S., think again. China has only reported 4600 deaths, where Covid 19 orginated, and yet, you believe them, over our data.
Steve Robinson says
Although he surprised a lot of us by actually acknowledging that climate change is a threat to Florida, and subtly rebuked his predecessor by appointing a “state scientist,” DeSantis has subsequently followed a predictable path: He is determined to deliver Florida to Trump in November–a Cabinet post no doubt his reward–which is why this manifestly intelligent man has appeared to be as petty and simple-minded as Trump. DeSantis’s press conference last week in Jacksonville with Lenny Curry was an embarrassment, highlighted by a lengthy attack on Andrew Cuomo and others “in the Northeast” that was, well, petty and simple-minded. It is possible for the governor to defend opening the beaches without comparing the sunny sands of northern Florida to New York City’s subways. But DeSantis viewed a press conference in Jacksonville as an opportunity to insult the people of the city that is suffering the most from this pandemic. I’m sure it gladdened the heart of that former New Yorker-turned-Floridian in the White House, but to anyone with an even an ounce of decency it was truly ugly.
Susan Grine says
Touche I agree why do people keep voting in the same people year after year after year that don’t do anything for the American people but yes soon as something happens everybody’s on the bandwagon complaining about these people stop voting these people into office.
Staying home says
Would you expect anything less from Trump’s golden boy? He doesn’t even know how to wear or use PPE so he’s just as worthless.
Percy's mother says
Many in the healthcare arena ALSO do not use PPE correctly.
Comments from a lot of armchair healthcare experts.
Billy C says
Good article and excellent point. The Governor foolishly decided to spike the ball because we lost by a smaller margin than predicted. Modelling is an important tool in the tool box. If you use it well it can help save lives. DeSantis’ after-action criticism was a show he put on for the Great Science Denier in the White House. He was looking for HIS approval.
erobot says
Simplistic indeed. De Santis surely knows this whole virus debacle has a single purpose and that is failed coup attempt #3 against the results of the last presidential election. Next up is attacks by space aliens — not kidding. 😱
Richard says
More pontificating on modeling which with this pandemic has been so terribly wrong in addition to bloating the data so badly that you can’t even trust the WHO or the CDC. What a waste of editorial space.
joe says
“To discredit models is as absurd as if DeSantis were to discredit public health agency recommendations or their army of contact tracers.”
He’s just following the playbook – downplay the science. Here’s what we’re dealing with:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-admin-muzzles-cdcs-guidelines-on-reopening-state-and-local-economies
President Donald Trump’s administration shelved the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidelines advising state and local leaders on how to reopen the economy amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
“The document, titled “Guidance for Implementing the Opening Up America Again Framework,” was slated to be released on May 1. In it, the CDC reportedly lays out detailed recommendations on safely reopening churches, schools, restaurants and other establishments that hold many people at once.
But according to the Associated Press, the administration told CDC scientists that the guide “would never see the light of day.”
An unnamed source told the AP that White House officials see such guidance as a “slippery slope” given that COVID-19 does not impact every area of the U.S. equally.
The report reveals yet another example of the administration’s lack of transparency in its response to the outbreak. President Donald Trump refuses to let members of his COVID-19 task force testify in front of Congress without permission from White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.
Trump blocked Dr. Anthony Fauci, a prominent official on the task force, from attending a House hearing scheduled for last week because the Democratic-controlled chamber is made up of “a bunch of Trump haters,” according to the President.”
Grit says
The problem is not relying on models. The problem is the model itself. If it uses the wrong input, it will give the wrong output. The models were overblown on imaginary scenarios that were not in alignment with epidemiology. No epidemiologist would have constructed the models that were widely used. The models were skewed to produce a desired result.
Honest Truth says
Governor DeSantis needs to protect the citizens of Florida and that is his job and which people elected him for. He needs to stop listening to Donald Trump who is doing his best to sweep the virus under the carpet with hopes that will get him re-elected which he will be proven very wrong.
Everyone wants to get back to normal but doing it irresponsibly will not get DeSantis or Trump re-elected. And then they will both see the economy take a bigger nose dive.
How about caring about human lives for now and have compassion for a totally broken and pathetic unemployment system in this State which Rick Scott spend millions on, and if he spent millions on the system where did that money go Scott? It sure didn’t go into that system.
How about the families that haven’t gotten their unemployment checks yet and still need to put food on their families table? Lets talk about them.
Governor DeSantis needs to do more testing in the State which he claims he is doing. Don’t rush reopening because it will turn around and bite him. He needs to stop trying to please Donald Trump and start pleasing ALL the citizens of Florida young and old.
Tom says
You wrote a whole lot of words saying basically that the Governor is doing a good job BUT he is an idiot for questioning models. What is the point other than to find a way to make one of the deplorable Trump supporters look bad when he is doing a good job. Hurricane models and virus models are apples and oranges. There is much more history, data, and agreement on the modeling of hurricanes than the ones used for viruses. Many experts and physicians are questioning the models currently being used as the “accepted’ models for this pandemic. Even Nobel prize winners are questioning things (PhD from Stanford – professor of Molecular Biology) because known facts are not used – only theories. In any event everyone has the right to question things – citizens, experts and politicians alike – unless of course they don’t finally accept the PC version coming from those who know what is best for you……
Sherry says
Thanks Joe. . . an excellent point made regarding trump’s administration hiding the recent recommendations from the CDC. Trump is a master manipulator of ALL thing factual that do not fit with his warped agenda. trump has the death of thousands on his hands. He was elected in 2016, and although he was “IMPEACHED” in 2019. . . the “Buck Stops With Him”!!!
Desantis is nothing but a trump sycophant. . . looking for a powerful job in Washington.
VOTE . . . like your life depends on the outcome, because it really does!
Pam says
It’s possible I’ve read too many Facebook posts by one of our county commissioners. Since Hurricane Covid made landfall in Central Florida, I’ve been skeptical of some of the information supplied by individuals in our county and state government.
Fueled by distrust, I’ve built a database and collected COVID-19 data (from the Florida COVID-19 Dashboard) since mid-March in an attempt to determine truth. The database contains daily stats for Flagler County and the state of Florida. I wasn’t comfortable with so many variations in the data presented by unknown people with unknown agendas.
I’ve also tracked Flagler County compared with our three neighboring counties. I’ve built graphs that don’t show Flagler County in a positive light. Per capita, we are the worst performer in testing and second worst in positive cases.
I don’t want the government to tell me what I should do or what I need to know. I want enough information to determine for myself how much risk is involved if I decide to go to church… Or take my dogs to the groomer… Or go to the dentist.
Sherry says
NO STATE of EMERGENCY declared by the trump administration UNTIL March 13th. . . and even then very little leadership followed and the state governments were left to deal with everything on their own. . . A Complete and utter FAILURE at the Federal Level!
Epidemiologists Britta L. Jewell and Nicholas P. Jewell Tuesday wrote in an op-ed in The New York Times that NINETY PERCENT OF THE coronavirus DEATHS in the U.S. could have possibly been avoided if social distancing began March 2, when there were only 11 deaths recorded in the nation. If such policies would have been put in place one week earlier, on March 9, the epidemiologists say there could have been a 60 percent reduction in fatalities.
Gus Rumpf says
I don’t believe he should be forcefully slowing anything down. In fact any forced lockdown/shutdowns/operating restrictions is Deprivation Of Rights Under Color Of Law.
Governors don’t make laws, the Legislatures do.
Our Constitution is not and will not be suspended.
Judges and police are to only enforce REAL laws and protect our Constitution.
Know your constitutional rights.
https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivation-rights-under-color-law
Deprivation Of Rights Under Color Of Law
Summary:
Section 242 of Title 18 makes it a crime for a person acting under color of any law to willfully deprive a person of a right or privilege protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States.
For the purpose of Section 242, acts under “color of law” include acts not only done by federal, state, or local officials within the their lawful authority, but also acts done beyond the bounds of that official’s lawful authority, if the acts are done while the official is purporting to or pretending to act in the performance of his/her official duties. Persons acting under color of law within the meaning of this statute include police officers, prisons guards and other law enforcement officials, as well as judges, care providers in public health facilities, and others who are acting as public officials. It is not necessary that the crime be motivated by animus toward the race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status or national origin of the victim.
The offense is punishable by a range of imprisonment up to a life term, or the death penalty, depending upon the circumstances of the crime, and the resulting injury, if any.
We The People are not alone either.
Anthony Sabatini
@AnthonySabatini
The State Attorney’s Office 6th Circuit just DROPPED their case against my client Galen Wood—the first Floridian to be arrested for opening a “non-essential” business. It’s clear there is NO valid legal authority for either the state or local emergency orders.
https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1258495405765152771
Curly says
Great governor!!! Unlike New York, California, Michigan,North Carolina corrupt democrats!
William Carter says
Surely you jest.