By Thomas Gift
When Joe Biden took the oath of office in January 2021, many expected him to be the “placeholder president”. His mandate: heal the country’s wounds after four turbulent years of Donald Trump. Don’t try to be a transformative figure. Then hand the reins to a capable successor.
Fast forward to 2024 and there’s room for debate about the merits (and demerits) of Biden’s first-term legacy. But it’s Biden’s decision to run for re-election that’s become the major flashpoint for Democrats.
Polling collated by US political website FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a dismal sub-40% approval rating. Former president Trump, the “inevitable” Republican nominee who has all punched his ticket to the general election with primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, has jumped into the lead in a head-to-head match against Biden in almost every swing state.
Many allies privately, and publicly, worry that Biden is at risk not only of overstaying his welcome, but of passing the baton to his twice-impeached rival that Biden himself pillories as an existential threat to democracy.
Is it too late for Biden to bow out in 2024? Technically, no. Biden could, for any reason, declare that he’s no longer seeking a second term.
If he did it before March, there would still be (some) time for other Democrats to get their name on many primary ballots, although deadlines for more than 30 states (amounting to roughly two-thirds of delegates) have already passed.
If it didn’t happen by then, his successor would be determined in a high-stakes fracas at the party’s convention scheduled for late August. Unless the Democrat party changed the rules, delegates pledged to Biden would enter the convention “uncommitted,” and so would lobby, and ultimately vote, on a replacement.
Practically, however, the odds of Biden changing course now look small. The two main reasons for pressing ahead haven’t changed since Biden announced his reelection bid last April. First, Biden is the only candidate who’s proven that he can beat Trump. Second, there’s no obvious heir apparent.
The only one who can beat Trump?
Biden has said explicitly said that “[Trump] is running so I have to run”. Although he says he’s not the only one who could topple Trump, Biden clearly feels that he has a significant upper hand. For one thing, he’s already proven he can do it.
There’s a reason why Biden earned the Democrat nomination in 2020. Biden’s blue-collar roots, resonance with moderate voters, and an ability to sell himself as the most “electable” Democrat ultimately gave him a come-from-behind win in those primaries.
In that general election, Democrats’ faith in him paid off. Biden tipped key swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania — all of which had gone for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Unlike in a typical election, 2024 is likely to be more a referendum on Trump than about the incumbent in the Oval Office. Biden is betting voters will prefer the devil they know. “Don’t compare me to the Almighty,” he says. “Compare me to the alternative”.
No heir apparent
The Democrats also don’t have a deep-bench of obvious successors. Biden sees himself as sparing the party from what would otherwise be a brutal nomination fight.
Whereas Trump has cruised to a commanding lead in the Republican primaries and squashed challenger and former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, a contested Democrat primary would be punishing. The candidate who emerged would be battle-tested, but potentially too busy nursing wounds to pivot into the general election.
Four years ago, many envisioned the current vice president, Kamala Harris, as Biden’s natural heir. Few say that now. If Biden’s poll numbers have disappointed, Harris’s have been a catastrophe. Her recent approvals, at 37%, are the lowest of any first-term VP since Dan Quayle in the early 1990s.
Other familiar names who ran in 2020 — like US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg or Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar — could step in for Biden. But it’s not happenstance they lost to Biden in 2020. No one was able to unite Democrat moderates and progressives, much less win over Republicans and swing voters.
Some think California governor Gavin Newsom is already running a “shadow campaign” for the White House, while Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is also “happy to be interrogated” about a presidential bid. Yet many see Newsom as “too Hollywood,” while Whitmer hasn’t been vetted on a national stage.
New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, too, has been rumoured as a potential fill-in for Biden. But a hard, populist leftist, without the cross-over appeal of left-wing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, would almost certainly guarantee a Trump victory.
Experts have also speculated about the possibility of a “saviour” parachuting into the Democrat Convention, such as former first lady Michelle Obama or even legendary TV personality Oprah Winfrey. This seems more like the stuff of liberal fantasies.
No turning back
Biden had plenty of opportunities to gracefully ride into the sunset. He could have said that he’d accomplished everything he set out to accomplish. He could have cited his desire for a rising generation to be represented in politics.
Now, it seems, there’s no turning back. Eleven months from now, we’ll know if Biden made the strategically right decision. But if he misfires, it likely will be several years until we know the full effects of that choice.
A Trump sequel promises, at best, volatility and serious tests to US democratic norms and institutions. At worst, it promises a “revenge term” — the full-blown manifestation of the ugly underbelly that manifested itself on January 6 in the attack on the US Capitol.
With no back-up plan for exiting, Biden’s legacy, win or lose, will invariably be tied to whether he refused to be the “placeholder president”.
Thomas Gift is Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, University College London.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
DaleL says
I have spent entirely too many hours reading the legal briefs in the Trump v. Anderson case. For those who are unfamiliar with the case, it is Mr. Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) to overturn the decision by the Colorado Supreme Court which declared that Mr. Trump was not qualified to be President, based on the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. A listing of the legal briefs is located at: https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-anderson/
I have not read all of the briefs. As I write this, there are by my count at least 88. However, I have read enough of them to be convinced, that short of some major mental gymnastics by SCOTUS, that Mr. Trump will be declared to be disqualified from holding office. The oral arguments before the court are scheduled for February 8th.
The legal brief by Mr. Trump and the amicus briefs supporting his appeal seem weak. As just one example, Mr. Trump’s brief, page 2, leads with: “The Court should reverse the Colorado decision because President Trump is not even subject to section 3, as the President is not an “officer of the United States” under the Constitution.” This completely ignores that the Presidential Oath, mandated by the Constitution, reads: “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States,…” The dictionary meaning of OFFICER, whether today or in 1868, is ONE WHO HOLDS AN OFFICE.
As for President Biden deciding not to run, a very real issue is that the Democratic Party has by apparent design made it very difficult for anyone else to run. Florida’s Democratic Party executive committee voted unanimously in late November 2023 to name Biden, and only Biden, to its list of presidential candidates to appear on the March primary ballot.
Flamingo Gary says
Yes the SITTING president held an insurrection to take over the government……..you are probably one of those clowns that think Obama wasnt a citizen even though his mother was an American citizen albeit a terrible mother to the point his grandparents had to take him in.
DMFinFlorida says
@ Flamingo Gary – I may be reading the comment above differently, but my interpretation is that DaleL is supporting the idea that Trump will be disqualified. He has studied Trump’s legal team briefs to the court, which he states, “seem weak.” In other words, he thinks that unless the SCOTUS pulls some shenanigans, there is no legal basis from the Trump side to prevail.
I’m not certain he is “one of those clowns” to which you refer. Maybe re-read? Or maybe my coffee hasn’t kicked in yet.
dave says
Pretty darn sad that in this great country of ours, these two men are what, the best the United States has to offer. All of these Congressional blowhards that talk a good game, are what! , to darned scared to change course and run for president. OH no, they would have to give up that cushy pretty much a life time job if they continue to get re-elected over and over again to stoop so low to run for President. So we end up with two old men, that have overrun their welcome, where one is trying and could get us into some type of mini war and the other that needs to be jailed, but our court system is on slow mo for that to happen and could end up with a huge slap on the wrist with some huge monetary impact and fine.. It appears these days, being President isn’t what it used to be. Darn sad these two are it.
Joe D says
Unfortunately, I see no VIABLE Democratic alternative to Joe Biden, which I would vote for.
My fear of Trump is that since it’s been VERY difficult to get charges to STICK ( the historical “Teflon Don”)…a SECOND disastrous term would find us watching TRUMP exact REVENGE on those that opposed him ( both Democratic AND Republican), and I see ( based on his most recent speeches) him getting us into a wide spread WORLD WAR, with nearly EVERYONE (except his BELOVED Russia….you can’t discount his 2 previous BEAUTIFUL Russian brides). Unfortunately his lack of diplomacy skills ( unlike the skills see in Joe Biden), could put us at odds with the UN AND the EUROPEAN UNION, at a time when joint cooperation is needed MOST. Even the POPE was reluctant to meet with him, and each photo opportunity of TRUMP and the POPE, shows the Pope’s expression of DISTAIN, which you never saw in the Pope’s meetings with other world leaders.
I’m afraid this election cycle will be even more distasteful than the last. Unfortunately, it looks like the more Moderate Nicki Haley won’t be a SERIOUS opponent for Trump….but at least Ron DeSantis didn’t pull the wool over the eyes of NATIONAL voters, as he has with many Florida voters.
DMFinFlorida says
@ Joe D – excellent analysis and how anyone with a modicum of honesty and intellect should feel. Well said. I feel exactly the same. I am so done with both parties.
Deborah Coffey says
Another article that will help Donald Trump be dictator. In 2022, one year after Joe Biden became president, a presidential ranking by America’s historians and political scientists had him as 19th best out of 46. America apparently has the worst informed citizens in the world. https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/presidents-ranked-worst-best/27/
And, if you don’t like that one, how about this one? https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/PDF-Ranking-FINAL-REAL.pdf
Joe D says
It’s not exactly that US Citizens are “uninformed.” It’s WHERE they GET their information. It used to be that mainstream Media presented the FACTS…sometimes having separate presentations of COMMENTARY in addition to the “NEWS” stories. Fox USED to be my FAVORITE network, growing up ( they had all the “cool” shows). But since 2015, I simply can’t watch any FOX news broadcast about ANY political issue. There is no presentation of the FACTS, the commentary and slanting of the news is so OBVIOUS, that while traveling other areas, and flipping through random local TV news stations, I frequently have to ask myself…based on the way the “news” is being presented: WHAT NETWORK am I WATCHING!?! 100% of the time, recently it’s been a FOX news subsidiary!
Don’t get me started about those that get their “information” from online social media outlets…as someone said in a comment about a prior topic: “Any IDIOT can start writing a BLOG!”
Free Speech is a given right under our CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY….however, it’s every citizen’s responsibility to question and do their own background research as to the FACTS of a situation, and not just be gullible, and accept what’s being said at FACE VALUE from EITHER SIDE!
People have been too ready to accept other people’s SOUND BITES as REALITY!
Ray W. says
It’s been a little over three years since a Flagler County commissioner took to the radio airwaves to ask when it would be time to start beheading liberals. Others over the ensuing months have called for the murder of Democrats, including catcalls by attendees at various Trump rallies. Our governor stated that, if elected president, he would begin his term by slitting throats on day one. Vermin need to be crushed; another Republican candidate intones. Indeed, the Flagler County commissioner cobbled together a depiction of Mr. Tristam’s head affixed to the body of a cockroach.
Earlier this week, a youngish Pennsylvania man posted a 14-minute video to YouTube, titled “Mohn’s Militia – A Call to Arms for American Patriots.” In the video, he eventually displays the severed head of his 68-year-old father, who worked for 20 years as a federal employee. During a rant about Biden’s failed America, antifa, Black Lives Matter, the LGBTQ+ community, the son commented that every federal employee needs to be murdered.
Words matter. People matter. If one call for murder is too many, then far too many among us are all too ready to kill political opponents, in some cases our own family members, over words and phrases repeatedly issued by our politicians. Falsehoods gain momentum. Intentional distortions run rampant. And a father is dead, purportedly because a disaffected child bought into political distortions and lies.
Once again, I seldom commented on this site before the article about the radio forum beheading question. We are in the early phases of a long and violent political rising by the disaffected among us, fostered in part by politicians who do not swear an oath to tell the truth when they take office. We, as partisans, are far too easily fooled by those who intend to gain advantage by our collective gullibility.
Atwp says
Run Biden run. I am behind you. You have my vote.
Brian says
“Run Biden run.” That’s hilarious – he can barely stand up.
JOE D says
President Roosevelt ran his presidency from a WHEELCHAIR!!!
Joe D says
I’m voting for Biden too…at least he has some intentions of trying to work with BOTH political parties THROUGHOUT his career ( he has ALWAYS been a keen negotiator).
Unfortunately his LIKELY opponent, has promised to bring HOLY REVENGE on all that OPPOSED him ( from BOTH sides of the “aisle”)…God help this country if we have to try and survive another 4 years of a DICTATOR TRUMP!
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
I see a lot of hemming and hawing about Biden and Trump in the replies here, and I’m stuck wondering exactly why. The reality of the situation is that under Biden, things haven’t changed. Sure, people can kumbaya around the fact that he’s not Trump, however, Biden told you exactly what you were going to get when you voted for him: nothing would fundamentally change. See https://www.salon.com/2019/06/19/joe-biden-to-rich-donors-nothing-would-fundamentally-change-if-hes-elected/.
He’s absolutely kept to his word. I honestly don’t know why people are complaining. He’s perfect for liberals and conservatives – he’s a huge fan of Strom Thurmond but doesn’t wear his hood in public, he says he’ll protect roe but he didn’t when push came to shove, he’s pro war in the middle east to the point that he’s throwing billions at them, he’s a huge fan of apartheid and zionism, he made words about supporting science but just let the pandemic run wild. He’s *doing* everything that conservatives want, he’s just not expressing things in the in-your-face, crude way that Trump did.
James says
Has anyone asked Trump to “stand down.” His family, his friends… those closest to him?
No.
Perhaps it’s time for both to stand down… but you can’t ask this of Biden if don’t also ask this of Trump.
Just an observation.