Forecast Is for ‘Somewhat Below Normal’ Hurricane Season, But Flagler EM Chief Urges Caution

Colorado State University researchers on Thursday projected a “somewhat below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.

The school’s forecast models predict 13 named storms, instead of 14 to 15 in an average year, six hurricanes instead of seven, and two reaching major storm strength instead of three.

Flagler County Emergency Management Director cautioned, however: “While seasonal hurricane forecasts help bring attention to the approaching hurricane season, it is important to note that 1) they are based on current expected conditions that can and will change over time, and 2) it only takes one storm, even in the calmest of seasons, to have a profound impact on our community.”

Every storm that has had such impacts on Flagler County, from Hurricane Matthew in 2016 to Hurricane Ian in 2017 to Hurricane Dorian in 2019 to Hurricane Milton in 2024 were tropical storms when their effects lashed the county.

“It is important for our community to make sure we are prepared for the potential of tropical storms and hurricanes,” Lord said this evening, and recognize that they may even occur before or after hurricane season.”

The storm season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The University of Colorado forecast is one of at least three major American forecasts of hurricane season. The others are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, recently, AccuWeather.

“AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms,” the forecaster reported last month, “including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States throughout the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”

NOAA will not make its forecast until mid-May.

Colorado State University research based their model on waters being slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and for currently weak La Niña conditions to likely transition to El Niño in a few months.

“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” the researchers posted online.

Vertical wind shear usually helps weaken or disrupt storms.

The model still shows sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic warmer than normal, as has been the case in recent years.

The AccuWeather forecast also included the potential development of El Niño weather phenomenon conditions, which would limit tropical activity to near or below historical average levels, especially in the second half and climatological peak of the season.

Last year, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching Category 3—winds of 111 mph to 130 mph, and storm surge of 9 feet to 12 feet above normal tide.

None of the 2025 storms, though, made a direct landfall in Florida or the U.S.

From 2022 to 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.

Flagler County’s beaches are in a precarious position after suffering significant loss of renourishment sand or dune protection sand over the last few years, and as it awaits upcoming renourishment or repairs on both sides of the Flagler Beach pier. The pier itself is under reconstruction and not scheduled to be completed until 2027. A stork before completion would not be propitious. The old pier has been demolished and removed. The pilings for the new pier have just been installed.

Lord will be appearing before civic groups and local governments to present briefings on the coming hurricane season.

–FlaglerLive and News Service of Florida