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Democrats Outpacing Republicans In Florida Registrations, But Not in Flagler

| June 19, 2012

Elusive signs in Florida these days. (Brande Jackson)


More Democrats than Republicans registered to vote in Florida in May, driven by women and Hispanics, according to state registration data released early by the Democratic Party.

Democrats said they registered 5,108 more voters in May than the Republican Party did, the fourth month in a row the party has led the GOP in new registrations.

The party released the favorable figures ahead of the state, which typically lags in its reporting of the data on its website.

In Flagler County, the numbers are reversed: Republicans, who’d relinquished their lead in July 2008, took it back in January, and have widened it since, to a full percentage point difference (36.7 to 35.7 percent), though the biggest winner–as in the rest of the state–is the independent column. The ranks of Flagler County independents grew to almost a quarter of the electorate, the highest proportion ever, and to 28 percent when minor parties are included. (See the table below.)

Republican registrations in Flagler County may be swelling in part because the Aug. 14 primary will be contested most heavily by Republicans. Many Democrats register Republican to have a voice, then cross back before the general election. In two races contested only by Republicans, independents and Democrats would have been able to cast ballots, but the presence of write-in candidates in those races have closed those primaries, perhaps encouraging further migrations to Republican ranks by voters looking to have a say in those elections.

In the rest of the state, the most recent official tally on the state’s elections website, from April, showed 4.5 million registered Democrats in the state and just under 4.1 million registered Republicans.

But when the May state data is released, the larger story is likely to continue to be that independents are outpacing both parties in recent registration statewide.

The official April state registration report, the last available from the Division of Elections, shows Democrats registered just over 7,000 new voters that month compared to about 4,000 new Republicans.

But the number of no-party voters increased by nearly 15,000 in April, according to state figures, more than double the number of new Democrats. Another 500 or so new minor party voters registered. State figures in April showed 2.3 million Florida voters registered with no party and 342,000 with minor party affiliations.

The GOP regularly dismisses registration figures as meaningless because of the large amount of cross-over voting, particularly in north Florida where many Democrats often vote for Republican candidates.

Democrats, on the other hand, say national politics have pushed women and Hispanics toward the party and also say Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s generally low popularity numbers have helped registration efforts. Democrats say the state figures for May will show their party with a 12 percent registration advantage among Hispanics and a 14 percent advantage among women.

Registration closes July 16 for voters who want to vote in the Aug. 14 primary election. Voters can continue to register until Oct. 9 to be eligible to vote in the Nov. 6 general election.

–News Service of Florida and FlaglerLive

Flagler County Voter Registration, 2003-2012

Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Minor Parties
Total
Oct. 2003
15,176
38.7%
16,259
41.5%
6,953
17.8%
780
2%
39,168
March 2004
16,215
38.9%
17,147
41.1%
17,536
18.1%
809
1.9%
41,707
March 2005
18,236
37.9%
19,535
40.6%
9,308
19.4%
998
2.1%
48,077
March 2006
19,086
37.3%
20,458
39.9%
10,337
20.3%
1,333
2.6%
51,214
March 2007
19,014
37.0%
20,080
39.1%
10,819
21.1%
1,463
2.8%
51,376
March 2008
21,096
37.5%
21,291
37.8%
12,074
21.5%
1,814
3.2%
56,275
July 2008
21,429
37.8%
21,327
37.6%
12,088
21.3%
1,869
2.8%
56,713
March 2009
23,713
38.1%
22,705
36.4%
13,750
22.1%
2,119
3.4%
62,287
March 2010
23,803
37.6%
22,817
36.0%
14,438
22.8%
2,327
3.7%
63,385
March 2011
24,023
36.9%
23,364
35.9%
15,138
23.2%
2,582
4%
65,107
Dec. 2011
23,956
36.2%
23,906
36.1%
15,644
23.6%
2,664
4.0%
66,170
Jan. 2012
24,030
36.1%
24,097
36.2%
15,716
23.6%
2,676
4.0%
66,519
March 2012
23,990
35.8%
24,514
36.6%
15,827
23.6%
2,628
3.9%
66,959
April 2012
24,021
35.6%
24,599
36.6%
16,526
24.6%
2,043
3%
67189
May 2012
24,050
35.7%
24,705
36.7%
16,587
24.6%
2,034
3%
67,376
Oct. 2012
24,330
35.3%
25,552
37.1%
17,056
24.7%
1,995
2.9%
68,933
Florida, May 2012
4,542,023
40.2%
4,095,660
36.3%
2,660,262
23.5%
(Combined with NPAs)
11,297,945
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10 Responses for “Democrats Outpacing Republicans In Florida Registrations, But Not in Flagler”

  1. question says:

    Lived in many areas coast to coast, and between:

    low wages, # of jobs
    guns
    Confederate flags
    ‘Stand your ground’ utilization
    widespread 1950’s teavangelical citizenry
    legal child abuse known as ‘discipline’
    etc, etc.

    NONE can touch Flagler County as poster child for the far right. So no, not at all surprised by our far right bona fides.

    [also, for another day, very much doubt there are wide-spread "Independents." Upon asking them to explain their reasoning...most often pure Republican]

  2. SAW says:

    Republicans only need to put Marco on the ticket and Florida will be a slam dunk regardless of the registration numbers.

    Let’s just hope not too many dead people show up to vote, and that we get a fair election.

  3. Maryjoe says:

    “Many Democrats register Republican to have a voice, then cross back before the general election.”

    And they complain about write in candidates? Gimme a break.

  4. tulip says:

    @ MARYJOE—–so they want to vote for the person they think is best and not what the party affiliation is–nothing wrong with that. Maybe that’s why an ever increasing amount of people are registering as Independents.

  5. Dorothea says:

    @SAW

    If the Ronald Reagan Club keeps up with their political dirty tricks, I seriously doubt that many Flagler County voters will change their presidential choice to support the tea party poster boy, Marco Rubio. Don’t kid yourself about Latino voters in Florida, they are not stupid and they are not monolithic; only 3% of them are Cuban-Americans.

  6. tulip says:

    @ DOROTHEA It’s also possible that people will change their party just to vote against Ericksen & Wadsworth who are the Ronald Reagan Club candidates. Those 2 races will be decided in the primary. A far as changing party to support Rubio IF he is the running mate, I think people will be smart enough to know that we’re voting for the President and the VP has little to do with running the country.

    Between a sheriff candidate being sued by his opponents manager, who probably has cost that candidate, any chance of winning and is stupidly taking the case back to court, The RR club with it’s unethical practices, campaign signs being ruined or stolen, the lying and backstabbing, I don’t feel to proud of this county right now.

  7. Dorothea says:

    @Tulip

    While I agree with your comment, I was pointing out to SAW, who seems to think that tea party backed, extreme right wing Rubio, should he become Romney’s running mate, would change any Florida voter’s presidential choice from Obama to Romney. My comment was not about changing political parties.

  8. Dorothea says:

    @Think First:

    You are correct, my stats on Cuban-American voters were nationwide. However, the rest of the Washington Post article can pretty much be summed up in its final paragraph. The article still makes SAW’s contention incorrect that Rubio would make Romney a “slam dunk” in Florida if he is Romney’s VP choice:

    From the Washington Post article:

    “In other words, Florida’s Hispanic Republican voters may give Romney a boost on Tuesday, but given Florida Latinos’ flip to the Democrats’ side — and the state’s 457,000 additional Hispanic voters who consider themselves independent of the two parties — the numbers show that this is still anyone’s race.”

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