By Tatishe Nteta, Adam Eichen and Jesse Rhodes
Following multiple defeats in the Republican presidential primary, including in her home state of South Carolina, Nikki Haley suspended her bid for the Republican presidential nomination on March 6, 2024.
Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in November’s election.
Haley’s failure to pose a more serious challenge to Trump may be puzzling to some. After all, she was a formidable candidate with notable political experience in both federal and state government. She had outlasted prominent Republican officials, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, in the GOP primary.
And Trump has serious political liabilities. Although he is wildly popular among Republican primary voters, Trump’s support is much weaker among likely general election voters. Trump’s unpopularity served as a drag on Republicans’ performance in the 2018 midterm elections, likely cost him a winnable presidential election in 2020 and contributed to Republicans’ underperformance in the 2022 midterms.
He also faces indictments on 91 state and federal charges ranging from plotting to overturn the 2020 election to withholding classified documents in his home in Florida. And observers, including Haley, have raised serious questions about his age, physical fitness and mental acuity.
Given her strengths and Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Haley’s primary campaign fall flat? Of course, part of the reason is Trump’s unique appeal with Republican primary voters. Over the past eight years, Trump has forged a distinctive bond with his voters that leads them to overlook his significant political weaknesses.
But sexism is also an important part of the explanation.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Trump’s history of sexism
Back in 2016, Trump frequently made sexist remarks directed at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. He called her a “nasty woman,” said she does not have the “presidential look” and contended that Clinton was “playing the woman card.”
Research shows that voters with more sexist attitudes were more likely to support Trump in 2016.
Eight years later, Trump employed a similar sexist playbook, questioning Haley’s qualifications, commenting on her appearance, characterizing her as “overly ambitious” and mocking her for having an absentee husband. Haley’s husband is in the South Carolina National Guard and currently deployed overseas.
We are political scientists who field and analyze public opinion surveys to better understand Americans’ attitudes. Using evidence from our recent national poll, we can examine how sexism influenced Republicans’ preferences in the 2024 Republican primary.
We first asked Republican respondents whom they would favor in the Republican presidential primary. Next, we measured sexist attitudes by asking respondents a series of questions about their prejudice, resentment and animus toward women. These attitudes are collectively known as “hostile sexism.” We also collected information about Republicans’ demographic characteristics, political attitudes and beliefs about the economy.
Familiar foe of sexism in the electorate
We find that individuals who supported Trump display much higher levels of sexism than those who favored Haley. Only 27% of Haley supporters agreed with the statement that “women seek to gain power by getting control over men,” but 38% of Trump voters agreed.
Likewise, when asked whether “women are too easily offended,” 52% of Trump supporters agreed, while 42% of those supporting Haley did so.
Finally, when provided with the prompt that “women exaggerate problems they have at work,” 37% of Trump voters agreed while only 25% of Haley voters expressed this view.
Next, we undertook an analysis that examined how sexist attitudes related to support for Trump relative to Haley, while taking into account demographic characteristics, political identities and views on the national economy.
This analysis confirmed that, even after taking into account these factors, individuals with more sexist attitudes were more likely to favor Trump over Haley.
In her challenge to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Haley, like female candidates across the partisan divide, contended with the familiar foe of sexism in the electorate.
While much is uncertain about the upcoming election, the nation will almost certainly continue to wait for its first female president.
Tatishe Nteta is Provost Professor of Political Science and Director of the UMass Amherst Poll, UMass Amherst. Adam Eichen is a doctoral candidate in Political Science at UMass Amherst. Jesse Rhodes is an Associate Professor in Political Science at UMass Amherst.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Pogo says
@Next
Why is the sky blue…where do bears…
JimboXYZ says
The D’s are no better really. HRC got snaked out by the party for Obama. And if Obama could’ve run for a 3rd term HRC would’ve been Obama’s backup as usual. Look how it worked out for Biden, he jumped on the VPOTUS opportunity with Obama & eventually became POTUS. I just recall 2008 that the speculation was Obama-HRC was a possibility, just as much as what they went with as Obama-Biden. The R’s see Trump as a candidate that legitimately received 74+ million votes, only makes sense, that until Trump proves in November 2024 & doesn’t get 74+ million votes, he’s the R’s starting QB so to speak. Had Haley been the R’s choice, I still think Trump would run, perhaps as an Independent like Perot did in 1992. And that would be a disaster for the R’s, splitting the R voters. It would most likely derail the Republican party for as long as Trump would ever run as an Independent ? Back in 1992, Perot garnered 20-25% of the votes, made electing Clinton that much easier because Perot was getting Bush votes not Clinton votes. The R’s are trying to win, not pick the first female R POTUS candidate ever, that’s something the D’s do, they seem to like being the first to appoint for certain positions ? And when HRC was their nominee they still snaked her out and went race over gemder in the end. 2016, similarly the D’s went younger white female HRC over an older white male Sanders. 2020 the D’s went Biden over Sanders just the same.
At 1st I wasn’t going to respond to this one, this is a no win article for comment for any male, unless I was JaneXYZ instead of JimboXYZ. One of those things that if you have something to say & you’re a man, your always a sexist & wrong. If a man says something in the Amazon Forest & there are no women around to hear what was said, is he still wrong ?
Endless Dark Money says
dont compare racist r’s to democrats they are not even close. Republicons dont think women should choose what happens to their bodies. Democrats think those decisions should be made by individuals and medical professionals not racist ron. Forced birth policies take away rights of women. HRC was a bad candidate but looking back I wish she would of won i mean she did get 20 million more votes but in our corrupt system getting more votes in a 2 candidate race doesnt mean you win.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
Bad science. While it may be true that Trump supporters are on average more sexist than Haley supporters, it’s a reach to say that Archie Bunkeresque Trump supporters contributed in any meaningful amount to her defeat. She’s unlikable, the even more conservative version of Hillary Clinton, and she’s not controversial which is what Trump supporters are drawn to.
Greg says
The republicans will lose the White House, because they supported Trump. Haly would had easily beat Biden. Trump has way too much baggage to win.
BMW says
It might have had a little to do with Nikki being a ‘War Hawk.’ I know that doesn’t meet your narrative, but a little journalistic investigation might have been less sexy, but more in tune with voters who care to investigate candidates. I’m a strong woman, been called every cliche in the book by the left and right alike – now you want me to believe the person who placed Nikki into one of the most prominent roles on earth all of a sudden doesn’t respect a woman’s ability and is the savior of those who negate the strengths of a woman? Have you studied the diversity amongst his business over the past 30 years – male/female/black/Hispanic/gay/those struggling with addiction? It’s politics, both sides are guilty of pushing extreme narratives and are disgusting in their tactics. Sales 101, when you want to sell something, throw in a decimal or percentage point and top it with polling numbers meeting the objective.
Hippy says
It is not puzzling to anyone but you apparently. It’s not sexism, it just not her time yet. Nor was DeSantis’s time.
dave says
Until the GOP rids itself of the rabid dogs on the far right, the GOP is toast, but in Nov we have a choice between two old guys because neither party has the guts to change.
Laurel says
Yes sexism exists. I told my husband, many years ago, that a black man would be elected President before a white woman would. Lo and behold! The current Republican Party want white women to be trad wives, stay at home, house zygotes, bake pies and wear a cross in obvious sight. White women have no support. Women of mixed race have no support. Black women often support each other.
That said, I was glad Nikki Haley hung in as long as she did and wish she hung in longer, but now that Judge Cannon, and the Supreme Court, are helping to delay Trump’s trials, Haley lost her chance to win. Also, Haley flip flopped on Trump. She should have denounced him, and cut the crap about ageism, and she would have had more support. As it was, not many believed her.
Ed P says
Ahh, but you would not have voted for her….would you?
If your honest answer is no, then maybe she wasn’t the right candidate and sexism was not the mitigating factor.
Laurel says
EdP: You are correct, I would not vote for her because she raised her hand when the debaters were asked who would support Trump. That’s a deal breaker for me, just as Trump’s “grab them by the pussy” comment, and his mocking a man with palsy. Trump supporters claim that he says what they are thinking. That doesn’t say too much for their thought process, or their personalities.
There are good Republicans out there, but, as it is now, I’m tired of this oppressive, one way of thinking crap. At least Haley, if she had won, would not be as such an extreme asshole as Trump. There would be half a chance of becoming a respected country again instead of a dictatorship, and world wide embarrassment.
ASF says
Alas, probably much the same way that Pseudo-Progressive forces within the Democratic Party once famously helped knee-cap Hillary Clinton. As I recall, they fell all over themselves talking about how what “an ugly witch in a pantsuit” (only they didn’t say “witch) she was.
Sexism is rampant all over the political spectrum.
Jackson says
More and more Republicans are saying and seeing the same things.
donald trump is a walking disaster.
They acknowledge that Trump has no agenda for America other than being Mob Boss in Chief.
And believe it or not – most Americans don’t want that.
good riddance donald. au revoir
Nancy N. says
Of course GOP sexism played a role…this is the party that just had a female senator deliver the SOTU response FROM HER KITCHEN!
Pogo says
@Bingo
I’m surprised it wasn’t a long shot so you could see her bare feet, with a pregnancy pillow under her dress. And just to cover every base, a bible and a Glok on the table where puts the apple pie she takes from the oven while giggling and explaining: y’all forgive me for doing my job while I talk to ya.
Laurel says
lol! :D