By Tatishe Nteta, Adam Eichen and Jesse Rhodes
In recent months, some prominent conservatives and erstwhile allies of President Donald Trump – former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and journalist Megyn Kelly, for example – have voiced their displeasure with him on several issues. They range from Trump’s handling of the Iran war and the economy to the release of information concerning his relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Most notably, political commentator Tucker Carlson, once one of Trump’s most stalwart loyalists, expressed remorse for his previous support for the president, declaring in April 2026, “It’s not enough to say, well, I changed my mind – or like, oh, this is bad, I’m out.” Carlson said he will be “tormented” by his support for Trump “for a long time” and that he is “sorry for misleading people.”
Growing unease with the Trump administration among these former allies comes amid some of the worst polling of Trump’s career. According to data compiled by pollster G. Elliott Morris, Trump’s popularity has been steadily declining over the past year. Americans are seriously questioning his handling of key issues, such as inflation, immigration, jobs and foreign affairs.
But beyond former prominent Trump allies, are there other Trump supporters having second thoughts about their votes in the 2024 presidential election? To answer this question, we conducted a nationally representative poll of 1,000 U.S. adults who were recruited from an online panel maintained by YouGov, a survey research firm.
We asked self-identified Trump voters about their votes in the 2024 election. Our results suggest that a growing number of them – especially moderates, African Americans and young people – are experiencing voter’s remorse.
AP Photo/George Walker IV, File
Support for Trump remains strong
To be clear, our survey shows that most Trump voters remain in the president’s camp.
We found that 84% of 2024 Trump voters say they would vote for Trump if given the chance to vote again in the 2024 election. That’s down 2 percentage points since we previously asked this question in July 2025.
Over 90% of members of Trump’s core base of voters – including 93% of self-identified Republican Trump voters, 95% of self-identified conservative Trump voters and 92% of Trump voters over age 55 – said they would vote for Trump as they did in 2024 if given a second chance.
Regretful Trump voters
But some groups of Trump voters are having second thoughts. The most regretful are those with whom Trump made significant gains in 2024. They include political independents, African Americans, younger people and those with more education.
Roughly 3 in 10 2024 Trump voters who identify as political moderates and African Americans said they would vote differently if the election were held again. And roughly a quarter of young and middle-aged Trump voters also suggested they would not vote for Trump if they could redo their 2024 vote.
Twenty percent of Trump supporters with postgraduate degrees expressed a reluctance to vote for Trump if given a second opportunity. Voters with some college experience and those making less than $40,000 annually reported the same sentiment in similar percentages.
Perhaps most politically perilous, 31% of independents who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again in an election do-over.
Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images
Cracks in the coalition
What is pushing Trump voters away from the president?
There is no single cause, but our results suggest that negative perceptions of Trump’s performance on high-profile issues are playing a big role. A substantial portion of Trump voters who give the president a negative grade on the economy (22%), the Epstein files (37%) and the Iran war (49%) say they would not vote for him in an election redo.
Our results suggest that cracks are forming in the Trump coalition and that they are concentrated among the groups that before 2024 were less likely to vote for the president.
Trump may take solace in the continued loyalty of his strongest supporters. But in a close election every vote counts, and lingering dissatisfaction could undermine Republicans’ ability to mobilize key swing voters.
As Republicans face the electorate in upcoming midterms, Trump and the GOP will have to work to reclaim the support of regretful voters. Failure to do so could cost Republicans Congress in 2026 and, ultimately, the presidency in 2028.
Tatishe Nteta is Provost Professor of Political Science, Adam Eichen is a doctoral Candidate in Political Science, and Jesse Rhodes is an Associate Professor of Political Science, all at The University of Massachusetts Amherst.
JimboXYZ says
These are the same voters that regretted Biden-Harris votes ? It’s like those that regretted Alfin votes somehow regretting Norris votes ? And those that regretted Biden-Harris votes, now indicating their dissatisfaction & regrets with Trump-Vance votes would they easily be regretting their Harris-Walz votes ?
richiesanto says
Jimbo. Your diatribes have gotten more and more incoherent. I suggest you cut back on the koolaid and try to read more and listen to Faux and NewsCrapp less!
Jim says
I really don’t understand how anyone who uses facts and experience to make decisions could ever vote for Trump. We had four years of him so it’s not like we didn’t get a good look at his capabilities and performance. He lied so much in his first term that many organizations were keeping tallies. He completely mismanaged Covid leading to around one million deaths in this country. And the grand finale was the January 6th Insurrection.
Yet, supposedly for the “economy”, Trump has been re-elected. The economy is tanking due to the Iran war and tariffs. Business has a tough time planning for the future when tariffs are subject to Trump’s thin skin. And we all know what this war has done to gas prices (and the follow on increases in anything and everything that uses oil for processing or transportation).
But here we are. We’re growing into an international pariah. Our historic allies do not trust us and they are quietly moving away from us. Trump has cut funding for research which will impact our innovation in the future. He’s just about stopped efforts to generate renewable energy because windmills are “bad” and so is solar. Meanwhile China (and most other countries) are moving full speed to build those capabilities for their benefit. Not to mention the grift of both Trump and his family. Under Biden, it was the “Biden Crime Family”. But under Trump, it’s all just “business”. And on and on.
Yet, his MAGA crew still supports him. And, even according to this article, many “moderates” and “independents”. Which, to me, simply shows how many people in this country either don’t follow the news or don’t care or are just plain stupid. And, I’m afraid, this will eventually be the root cause of our complete downfall.
Laurel says
Jim: I recently heard someone call this Trump loyalist era as “the confederates last stand.”
richiesanto says
What is absolutely unbelievable is that over 90% of his loyal, brainwashed cult would still vote for him! What exactly would it take for them to throw down their koolaid and wake up and smell the conman coffee? He surely was correct when he said he could “shoot someone on fifth avenue” and his supporters would still vote for him. This is surely a testament to stupidity and makes me proud to be a NEVER-trumper!
Skibum says
Don’t forget Latinos. I have been hearing from multiple sources how the drumph administration’s horrible treatment of immigrants has been turning the tide, forcing a historic shift in allegiances for conservative Latinos who had been reliable republican voters but now are extremely upset by what they have been seeing from the thuggish ICE raids all across America.
Laurel says
He’s playing the Cuban American population now.
Mike Cocchiola says
Trump’s base remains strong among rural, blue-collar, aging, and undereducated voters. They are deeply rooted in the mid-20th Century of racism, idealized self-help, and a biblical view of life as it was.
I pity these folks, but I pity the moderates, progressives, new-agers, and globalists with high expectations of what America can be, far more. We are now governed by those who have exploited the weaknesses of our democracy and the vulnerabilities of those wholly unprepared to protect it.
We’ll get through this, but it’ll take years to repair the human and societal damage and restore faith in democratic governance.
The dude says
$5.00/gal gas.
Golden calfs.
Record beef and fertilizer prices.
Record inflation.
Record amounts of grift and insider trading.
Just corruption the likes that has never been seen before from the top to the bottom in this administration.
Yet our MAGA dead enders won’t abandon ship. They’ve hitched their wagons to this corrupt movement and pored all their hate and contempt into it so completely they know no other way.
As for these MAGA morons expressing regrets… these are folks running towards the conflagration they started with thimbles full of water. What the dementia addled diaper Don is doing and has done was all completely known and predicted during the election. They should’ve known better, so either they perpetrated this on us for profit alone, or they were too effing stupid to see the obvious. Either way, they are not relevant or germane to the conversation or solution.
Dennis will be along shortly to prove my point.
Marlee says
I don’t understand how his supporters believe all his lies.
I wish someone could explain that to me…..
Trump lies and then lies when he claims he never said the lie.
The dude says
Jimbo’s post might help you understand better… no matter how bad it is, or how bad it gets… it ALWAYS has been, and ALWAYS will be President Biden’s fault.
The Fall of the Western Roman Empire – President Biden’s fault.
The sacking of Constantinople – President Biden’s fault.
World War I – President Biden’s fault.
The great depression – President Biden’s fault.
World War II – President Biden’s fault.
9-11 – President Biden’s fault.
The 2009 depression – President Biden’s fault.
COVID – President Biden’s fault.
The great Jedi purge leading to the fall of the Republic and the New Order – President Biden’s fault.
$5.00/gal gas in 2025 – President Biden’s fault?
That’s core MAGA. Taking responsibility is simply not possible with them.
Deborah Coffey says
Thank you for a good, much needed laugh.
Laurel says
Marlee: Well, part of it is the amygdala, which is the fight or flight part of the brain, which deals with fear. The Trumpists throw fear out there on a daily basis. “The enemy within.” “They’re eating the dogs and cats.” The “replacement theory.” “Men are competing in women’s sports.” Women reporters are “piggies.” “You send your boy to school, and the kid comes home as a girl.’ “They’re poisoning the blood.” I actually know some white people in Charleston who ran out and bought guns because they thought black people (BLM) were headed toward their neighborhoods to get them. Of course, it never happened. That was during Trump’s first admin. Look at the insurrection where Trump told them to “fight like hell or lose their country.” Trump exploited that part of the brain.
Another thing is, people are frustrated because they are right that the government is not working for them. So much so, that the poor and middle class, who normally don’t like the “coastal elite” voted for a man who is the epitome of coastal elite, born with the silver spoon, and has absolutely no idea, whatsoever, what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck. Even so, his loyalists believes he speaks their language. People like to blame others for their shortcomings. Trump exploited that, and gave them permission.
The Trumpers have dug in so deep, and for so long, that it’s unfathomable to them to admit they messed up. For several years now, they believed they were “owning the libs,” which is a way of getting back at those they feel think they are superior. Trump has not given them a back door to back out, his grandiose ego won’t allow it. They are stuck with it.
Trump may not like to read, or listen to anyone else, but he did a lot of research on how to manipulate the masses, and learned how to market. That, you gotta give him. He has quadrupled his wealth while in public office, yet, his loyal states he works for free.
Nice try says
You can spin it how you want it nobody wanted wine drunk Kamala clearly.
Laurel says
Nice try: Explain the “spin” please.
And, I’ve never seen Kamala Harris drunk. Who told you ( because someone did) that one?
R.S. says
MAGA is a religion. Pure and simple! The savior can do no wrong; and if he seems to, the believer simply admits to being too sinful, shallow, or ignorant to understand the deeper religious meaning behind what seems so wrong. And the MAGA believer has been amply conditioned by religious thinking: after all, if the deity wipes out large sections of the planet with a tornadic or flood-like Act of God, say, the believer will also look for deeper understanding that s/he cannot fathom but retains the faith.
Pogo says
Here’s a clue
https://search.brave.com/search?q=obama+talk+like+normal+people
You’re welcome.
Laurel says
Yes, thank you.
Trump very purposely pushed his fans into a tight corner, with no back door. He continues that push daily, knowing very well for them to change their minds now would make them look completely credulous. They don’t realize they already suffer socially from that affliction.
Keenan Hreib says
Many prominent conservatives saw the light when it came to Trump and his Fourth Reich cabinet of racists, drunks, classists, and the greediest group of ANTI-AMERICAN zealots putting America last while carving up the country for their liking and financial benefit. I have no idea why it took so damn long!
Nobody likes the way Trump has handled the economy, the war HE started in Iran, killing Americans in the street, throwing due process and law and order in the toilet, pardoning convicted felons left and right, and finally destroying every Constitutional amendment and standard unless it squares with his personal wishes.
MAGA. “The cult of personality”. A modern group of Nationalists with big butts to sit on and small brains to think with. Not one thought of their own. Not one.
Trump is nothing more than a INFLUENCER that has infiltrated the government and used it as his own personal piggy bank. Trump has not governed at all. He has assigned “WORKER BEES” to collect our blood, sweat, and tears. He has torn a hole in the soul of this country.
Polling is in the toilet with a average favorability rating of 30% across the board. What blows my mind is that it’s even that high?
That’s like giving Adolph Hitler a D in humanity.
The vast majority of the country does in fact hate Trump, but when you ignore the Constitution, laws, standards, and practices…. Well, you can then do whatever you bloody well please. America is going through an awakening, but has no voice yet.
Hopefully this weak RED and spineless UN-AMERICAN party we know as Republicans won’t ever hold a Presidential office again.
DEMOCRATS take note:
It would be difficult to to be as depraved, unethical, racist, and greedy as this administration is. However; Democrats must reinvent themselves. Don’t be afraid to call yourselves LIBERALS or even DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS. Explain your position to Americans, because most Americans don’t even know what Socialism is and how it varies from country to country. Nuance people! Americans see the “ISM” and think Communism or Communism lite.
I personally think the “TWO PARTY SYSTEM” is a failure, but Democrats have to be bold and get away from the “STATUS QUOISM” that has hamstrung this country for decades.
Dennis C Rathsam says
COULDNT RESIST!!!!! TRUMPS candidates all won 10 for 10! TDS runs through the ding bats here on the Pierre show! Prices go up, prices go down, all you jackasses look like clowns. TRUMPS got the GOP in his hand, while you morons toast Kamala, if I had more time Harris. The more ya,LL hate TRUMP, & Bitch about him, only PROOVES he,s right! The SS JACKASS is sinking in the Gulf on America, & the thing of it is….RATTS CANT SWIM!! Now your in the Twilite Zone, & TRUMPS the host. AMERICA THE BEAUTIFULL! HE HAW HE HAW, the donkeys balloon just burst
Laurel says
He’s done one hell of a job on you Dennis!
Jim says
Dennis is correct! Trump spent millions to exact revenge on Republicans who disagreed with him on – anything. That’s not allowed in the MAGA/Republican party! So, Dennis, be proud indeed! Your god got his way in the primaries.
Let me ask you though, care to comment on some of Trump’s other recent activities? I’d love to see you put us all in our place by defending Trump’s actions. Here’s some to pick from:
– Awarding himself a slush fund from the DOJ for $1.776B dollars! And, hopefully, some of it will be used to pay the Jan. 6 “peaceful protesters” for the government “harassing” them just because the beat police officers, killed one and three others committed suicide, damaged the capitol and interrupted Congress. He didn’t deny even his family might get some of that money!
-At least $220M in stock trades earlier this year which were timed to coordinate with his actions that promoted those companies and drove their stock value up! No insider trading here, right? I mean, the president didn’t know he’d approve chip sales outside the US, or any of the other things he did that drove the price up.
– Trump had the IRS agree to not pursue him or his family or his companies over any tax returns they’ve produced prior to today. Even though the IRS was pursuing Trump for about $100M in tax deductions which they said were duplicated two years in a row. Seems fair to me and – I’m sure – to you!
So, please, Dennis, man up and tell us all why this is all legal and ethical and in the best interests of the good ol’ USA!! A real MAGA guy should have no trouble doing this. You can help us dummies understand the genius of Trump and why we all should worship at the foot of his throne with you!
By the way, I don’t recall you saying “Prices go up, prices go down” when Biden was president and gas went up. Why, I’ll bet you were one of the fine folks putting the “I did that” stickers on the pumps at that time! I’m glad that since Trump is president, you just go with the flow.
Crow about the primaries, old man. We’ll see who crows in November….!
Keenan Hreib says
Thank you Jim. Well done.
The dude says
Dennis, cannot provide facts nor will he attempt to do so.
Dennis can barely provide incomplete sentences… Dennis is a an archetype MAGA… the perfect specimen if you will. Barely literate, uninformed, dull witted and completely enamored with grift and criminality. He probably also sends money he doesn’t have to MAGA causes daily.
Dennis is exactly what’s wrong in this country today.
Sherry says
@ The Dude. . . Your last line says “IT ALL”! Thank You!
R.S. says
I think that we should attempt not to resort to personal insults: they’re not relevant, establish no supporting facts, and simply heat the discussion such as to stifle any sincere communication attempts.
Ray W. says
Hello Jim.
Can it be argued that George Will, the long-acclaimed Washington Post columnist, has for decades been one of the most widely recognized voices in America’s true conservative movement?
Here is what he wrote of this past Tuesday’s removal by primary party opposition of two Republican U.S. Senators:
“This week the Republican Party has accomplished something difficult: it has made itself stupider. It subtracted from its already shallow reservoir of intelligence by moving to purge two fine senators. … The two senators will be replaced by persons who, if elected, … can be counted on to be exactly what no senator should be, another of the president’s congressional sock puppets, promising as a high principle, not to think independently.”
Will added:
“The party was founded in 1854. For a decade now, it has been a passive emanation of the current President. The obedience to him by almost the entirety of the party’s elected officials is either canine devotion, or toadyism in the service of careerism. It hardly matters which.”
Make of this what you will.
Me?
Academia holds that true conservatism found its full footing in 1687 and 1688, when Great Britain’s Parliament stood up to political overreaches by King James II. Parliament insisted that while the king had his own political powers, he did not stand above Parliament’s separate political powers. Thus came to full flower the true conservative ideals of separation of powers, rule of law, and individual rights. But was the late seventeenth century the origin of these ideals or the culmination? Did these ideals suddenly emerge sans nurture?
Winston Churchill, in the preface to the first volume of his History of the English Speaking Peoples, my volume published in 1956, describes the origin of the idea of Parliament as follows:
“… The Great Charter [of 1215] therefore is not in our sense of the word a legislative or constitutional instrument. It is an agreed statement of what the law is, as between the king and his barons; and many of the provisions which seem to us to be trifling and technical indicate the points at which the king had encroached on their ancient rights. Perhaps, in their turn, the victorious barons encroached unduly on the rights of the Crown. No one at the time regarded the Charter as a final settlement of all outstanding issues, and its importance lay not in details but in the broad affirmation of the principle that there is a law to which the Crown itself is subject. Rex non debit esse sub homine, sed sub Deo et lege – the king should not be below man, but below God and the law. This at least is clear. He has his sphere of action, within which he is free from human control. If he steps outside it he must be brought back. And he will step outside it if, ignoring the ancient Counsel of the kingdom, and refusing to take the advice of his wise men, he tries to govern through his Household, his favorites, or his clerks.
“In other words, personal government, with all its latent possibilities of oppression and caprice, is not to be endured. But it is not easy to prevent. The King is strong, far stronger than any great lord, and stronger than most combinations of great lords. If the Crown is to be kept within its due limits some broader base of resistance must be found than the ancient privileges of nobility. About this time, in the middle of the thirteenth century, we begin to have a new word, Parliament. It bears a very vague meaning, and some of those who first used it would have been startled if they could have foreseen what it would one day come to signify. …”
There is much more in the preface to Churchill’s estimations and understandings. Perhaps another day.
But for now, I argue that Churchill, perhaps the greatest conservative voice ever known, fully understood at the end of his long service in government just how easy it would be for a future king to uproot centuries of conservative thought if Parliament failed to keep healthy boundaries on the king’s political powers.
Is this what George Will means when he opposes the defeat of the two Republican senators? That celebrating the defeat of one type of conservative so that a lesser “toady” may take his place may not be in the best interests of a party that has come to deign itself conservative in word but not in act?
BillC says
“…canine devotion”. WOW! That sums up the Republican party in two words! Good doggies- sit-stay-roll over.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Its fine for OBAMA & BIDEN, no one says shit…. Just because you have TDS TRUMP’S the villain, TRUMP’S the crook…. Come November according to you liberal jackasses, JIM CROW is voting this yr. Jimmy boy, Pay backs are a bitch! Both Biden & Obama did illegal things to stop TRUMP. All their lies, & the destruction of all the evidence from the 1/6 investigation magically disappeared….They found out, they had shit, & TRUMP was innocent! Watch the 1/6 committy members, lawyer up, they know what’s coming…. Perry Mason cant help these fools.
Sherry says
@ dennis. . . one human being to another. . . you really, really need to get some help and SOON!
Dusty Boots says
This piece—repackaged academic polling from UMass researchers—tries to paint a picture of crumbling MAGA support and widespread “voter’s remorse” under President Trump. It spotlights a few loud voices (Tucker Carlson’s Iran war regrets, MTG gripes, Megyn Kelly critiques) and selective poll slices showing independents, younger voters, and some African Americans wavering. But this is classic media wishcasting: amplifying temporary noise while ignoring the big picture of a president delivering on hard choices that previous administrations dodged.1
Short Memories and Partisan Hypocrisy
The irony is thick. For years, Democrats and their media allies opposed doing the right thing on Iran:
• Obama’s nuclear deal funneled cash to the regime, emboldening proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas) that attacked US interests and Israel.
• Biden-Harris weakness invited chaos—record attacks on shipping, October 7-style threats, and Iran’s sprint toward breakout nuclear capacity.
• Endless “restraint” and diplomacy-without-leverage left the Middle East a tinderbox and oil prices vulnerable.
Trump’s approach—maximum pressure, direct strikes alongside Israel to degrade nuclear sites, leadership targets, and missile capabilities after provocations—is the corrective. It mirrors the WWII conversation: sometimes “late” feels prudent until the threat metastasizes. Critics now decry escalation and oil price spikes from Hormuz disruptions, but the alternative was accepting a nuclear theocracy dominating the region. Carlson’s “torment” over supporting Trump and the war sounds like buyer’s remorse from someone who preached America First until the hard part arrived. Real conservatism isn’t isolationism at all costs; it’s peace through strength, not wishful containment of fanatics.19
The article’s poll (one-third of moderate/Black Trump voters hypothetically switching?) deserves skepticism. Self-reported “do-over” questions post-policy pain (inflation echoes, war friction) often exaggerate regret. Core support remains rock-solid: 84%+ of 2024 Trump voters sticking, over 90% among conservatives, Republicans, and older voters. Gains with working-class, minority, and non-college voters in 2024 weren’t fragile gifts—they reflected rejection of open borders, inflation, and cultural decline. Temporary war headwinds test coalitions; they don’t shatter them. Midterms will hinge on results (neutralized Iranian nukes, energy dominance restored, border secured), not cherry-picked surveys.1
Tough Governance vs. Media Narratives
Trump inherited Biden-era messes: porous borders, energy dependence, emboldened adversaries. Delivering fixes—tariffs for leverage, military deterrence, domestic energy ramp-up—brings short-term costs (yes, gas prices). But pretending this is unique “Trump chaos” ignores how Democrats politicized every prior conflict: Iraq under Bush, endless Afghanistan, Syria red lines ignored. Opposition to “doing the right thing” is their pattern—restraint as virtue-signaling until threats hit home. Epstein file releases? Transparency over cover-ups. Economy critiques? Early disruption for long-term reshoring beats managed decline.
Voter regret stories are evergreen media tropes after any assertive Republican presidency. The real story: most Americans who voted Trump in 2024 understood he wasn’t a cautious manager but a disruptor. Cracks among “educated” moderates and swing groups? Often performative or poll-sensitive to headlines. Trump’s base—forgotten Americans prioritizing sovereignty, strength, and results—hasn’t fractured. History favors decisive action over perpetual delay. If neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat and resetting global deterrence is the “regret,” then many will wear it as a badge of realism, not remorse. The alternative—weakness inviting worse wars—is the true failure previous leaders normalized.
Sherry says
@ dusty. . . either provide “credible facts/evidence” for your ridiculous claims or we will all continue to know that all you can do is post Fox BS “talking points”! Thanks!
Dusty Boots says
The JCPOA provided Iran with substantial sanctions relief, unlocking access to roughly $100 billion in frozen overseas assets (with Treasury estimates at the time putting usable liquid funds closer to $50 billion). This came alongside a separate $1.7 billion cash settlement of a pre-1979 arms claim, paid in foreign currency. While proxy funding for groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis existed before the deal, the influx of resources amplified their capabilities. In the years that followed, Iran’s support for these proxies contributed to heightened regional aggression, including attacks on shipping and Israel. Post-deal, Iran also repeatedly violated the agreement’s enrichment limits, as documented in multiple IAEA reports.
By contrast, the first Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports and strained its economy. After the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran accelerated its nuclear program. By late 2024–early 2025, IAEA assessments showed Iran had amassed a significant stockpile of near-weapons-grade material and shortened breakout timelines dramatically.
The recent U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted key nuclear sites and leadership, aiming to set back a program that had advanced dangerously close to threshold status. This stands in contrast to the Biden years, which saw over 150 attacks by Iranian proxies on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, with relatively restrained direct responses until later in the term.
As of May 2026, the Trump administration is actively pursuing a framework agreement with Iran. President Trump has stated that a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to formally end the recent conflict is “largely negotiated,” subject to finalization. Key elements under discussion include reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore global energy flows, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, easing certain oil sanctions, and unfreezing some Iranian assets—paired with a temporary extension of the ceasefire (reports suggest 30-60 days) to allow follow-on negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
While progress has been reported through mediators, differences remain on core issues such as the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and long-term limits on enrichment. This reflects a continued emphasis on leveraging strength to secure verifiable concessions rather than open-ended diplomacy.
This reflects the broader policy of actually tackling entrenched problems and driving toward resolution, rather than merely jawboning them or kicking the can down the road. For instance, the administration has invested significant political capital in securing the southern border and meaningfully reducing illegal immigration, reversing foreign energy dependence through expanded domestic production, and applying concrete pressure on adversarial regimes in Venezuela and Cuba — delivering results instead of relying on rhetorical gestures or prolonged diplomatic stalemates that defined previous administrations.
Public opinion remains divided, as it often does amid short-term disruptions like oil price spikes from Hormuz tensions. While some polls (including certain academic and mainstream surveys) have shown temporary regret or softness, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and other trackers indicate Trump’s core support among 2024 voters—Republicans, conservatives, and working-class demographics—has held relatively firm. “Do-over” questions during any conflict or economic friction tend to exaggerate dissatisfaction; they rarely forecast longer-term outcomes once results on security and energy become clearer.
Both Obama and Biden approaches, like those of prior administrations, largely deferred the Iran problem through diplomacy that failed to durably constrain the regime’s nuclear ambitions or proxy network. Iran’s leadership continued its “Death to America” rhetoric and centrifuge development regardless. The current policy prioritizes deterrence through strength over managed decline, even as it keeps the door open to pragmatic deals that deliver concrete results.
America First is ultimately about measurable results—secured borders, increased energy production, confronting adversaries, and resolving difficult issues—rather than perpetual engagement or simply kicking the can down the road.
History will evaluate the effectiveness of decisive action versus repeated attempts at accommodation. If you have specific counter-data on nuclear timelines, proxy funding trends, or evidence that restraint produced better long-term outcomes, I’m happy to review it.
R.S. says
There was no indication that Iran made any progress toward a nuclear bomb; it agreed to examinations by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel, on the other hand, never has agreed to international supervision of its arsenal. Iran has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty; Israel has not. Netanyahu/Mileikowski was the only source for inflating the Persian problem. Yes, I’d prefer to see regime change in Iran; however, the Iranians–as the Venezuelans–are the only ones to make those changes. Hezbollah and Hamas–although we hang “terrorist” on to every mention of their names to massage the public message here–have also improved the infrastructure of various countries by maintaining hospitals, schools, vocational institutions, and charities. In terms of international laws and agreements–vd. the Universal Declaration of Human Rights–the America First message is “Fie to all international obligations! We’ve got it and you can just go to die somewhere.” Practically and at the moment, that is expressed in the stopping of USAID and letting people of poor nations die. Morally, this administration is abysmally despicable–IMMHO. And, actually, given Trump’s various rattling of real or imaginary sabers, the Iranian mullahs would be utter idiots if they were NOT to pursue nuclear arms at the moment.