![U.S. Secret Service agents help former President Donald Trump offstage during a rally on July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pa.](https://i0.wp.com/flaglerlive.com/wp-content/uploads/trump-near-miss.jpg?resize=1000%2C667&ssl=1)
By Arie Perliger
With an assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, the U.S. experienced another violent episode in its increasingly polarized politics. Former President Trump, who’s about to formally become the GOP nominee for president in the 2024 election, survived the attempted assassination when, initial reports said, a bullet grazed his ear. But one rally attendee was killed, more spectators were injured and the suspected gunman is also dead. The Conversation’s politics editor, Naomi Schalit, spoke with University of Massachusetts, Lowell, scholar Arie Perliger after the event. Perliger offered insight from his study of political violence and assassinations. Given the stark political polarization in the U.S., Perliger said, “it’s not a surprise that eventually people engage in violence.”
Schalit: When you heard the news, what was the first thing you thought?
Perliger: The first thing that I thought about is that we were basically one inch from a potential civil war. I think that if, indeed, Donald Trump would have suffered fatal injuries today, the level of violence that we witnessed so far will be nothing in comparison to what would have happened in the next couple of months. I think that would have unleashed a new level of anger, frustration, resentment, hostility that we haven’t seen for many, many years in the U.S.
This assassination attempt, at least at this early stage, may validate a strong sense among many Trump supporters and many people on the far right that they are being delegitimized, that they are on the defensive and that there are efforts to basically prevent them from competing in the political process and prevent Trump from returning to the White House.
What we’ve just seen, for many of the people on the far right, fits very well into a narrative that they’ve already been constructing and disseminating for the last few months.
![A white man with a bloodied face raises his fist as he is surrounded by men in darks suits and sun glasses.](https://i0.wp.com/images.theconversation.com/files/606747/original/file-20240714-17-mg264t.jpg?ssl=1)
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Political assassination attempts don’t aim only to kill someone. They have a larger goal, don’t they?
In many ways, assassination attempts bypass the long process of trying to downgrade and defeat political opponents, when there is a sense that even a long political struggle will not be sufficient. Many perpetrators see assassinations as a tool that will allow them to achieve their political objectives in a very quick, very effective way that doesn’t demand a lot of resources or a lot of organization. If we are trying to connect it to what we’ve seen today, I think that many people see Trump as a unicorn, as a unique entity, who in many ways really consumed the entire conservative movement. So by removing him, there’s a sense that that will or may solve the problem.
I think that the conservative movement changed dramatically since 2016, when Trump was first elected, and a lot of the characteristics of Trumpism are actually now fairly popular in different parts of the conservative movement. So even if Trump will decide to retire at some point, I don’t think that Trumpism – as a set of populist ideas – will disappear from the GOP. But I can definitely understand why people who see that as a threat will feel that removing Trump can solve all the problems.
In a study of the causes and impacts of political assassination, you wrote that unless electoral processes can address “the most intense political grievances … electoral competition has the potential to instigate further violence, including the assassinations of political figures.” Is that what you saw in this attempted assassination?
Democracy cannot work if the different parties, the different movements, are not willing to work together on some issues. Democracy works when multiple groups are willing to reach some kind of consensus through negotiations, to collaborate and to cooperate.
What we’ve seen in the last 17 years, basically since 2008 and the rise of the Tea Party movement, is that there’s increasing polarization in the U.S. And the worst part of this polarization is that the American political system became dysfunctional in the sense that we are forcing out any politicians and policymakers who are interested in collaboration with the other side. That’s one thing. Second, people delegitimize leaders who are willing to collaborate with the other side, hence, presenting them as individuals who betrayed their values and political party.
The third part is that people are delegitimizing their political rivals. They transform a political disagreement into a war in which there is no space for working together to address the challenges they agree are facing the nation.
When you combine those three dynamics, you create basically a dysfunctional system where both sides are convinced that it’s a zero-sum game, that it’s the end of the country. It’s the end of democracy if the other side wins.
If both sides are hammering into people again and again that losing an election is the end of the world, then it’s not a surprise that eventually people are willing to take the law into their hands and to engage in violence.
Arie Perliger is Director of Security Studies and Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell.
![](https://i0.wp.com/flaglerlive.com/wp-content/uploads/the-conversation.jpg?resize=250%2C38&ssl=1)
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Steve Robinson says
As an academic you have a responsibility to impartially dissect the reasons why, in this case, Trumpers are who they are. But your explanation that these people are angry about being marginalized and shut out of the political process is absurd. Donald Trump, their savior, won the presidency eight years ago, and is likely to win it again; the House of Representatives is currently a GOP-majority branch of government with a leader who states that the Bible is his guidebook to governing; the Supreme Court is firmly in the tank for Trump, and Republican-led state legislature are eagerly turning the clock back to 1960, and making women second-class citizens. So how, exactly, are prototypical white male conservatives not being heard??
I agree with you that Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of the racist, angry xenophobia of the right, but movements await leaders, and Trump gave voice to the hatred infecting millions of Americans as only he could do.
Had that bullet tracked an inch or so to the right I believe we’d have seen some violence, but not civil war. After an obligatory “mourning period,” Americans would have resumed their lives, the GOP would have nominated someone who utters the same garbage as Trump without the unapologetic amorality, and the temperature, as we’ve all been instructed to observe, would drop sharply.
I live in a state that permits anyone with a pulse to carry a gun. And yet I firmly believe that the number of Americans willing to shoot their fellow Americans is thankfully very small–especially not for a corrupt, venal, lying politician.
Tired of it says
When you do nothing for years other than spew hate and divisiveness, promote racism and lie to the American public, you reap what you sow.
JimboXYZ says
In other news, charges dropped vs Trump for the documents at Mar-A-Lago.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/classified-documents-case-trump-dismissed-aileen-cannon/index.html
Jim says
I guess you didn’t read past the headline. The Trump judge – Cannon – dismissed the case because she (and only her) thinks the special prosecutor was appointed unconstitutionally despite the fact that multiple other courts have summarily dismissed that argument. However, since Cannon is a Republican first and a protector of the courts and constitution a very distant second (as well as being incompetent) she did her penance for Trump and gave him a victory that in no way justifies the fact that he stole secret government documents and went to great efforts to hide them from the government when they came calling. I wouldn’t expect you to grasp that part of the story, though. And, unless Dear Leader Trump is elected in November, the charges will be reinstated and a different judge who actually follows our laws and constitution will be assigned that case. If those things happen, Dear Leader will eventually be found guilty.
Thanks for dropping this into an article about concerns of what would happen if Trump has indeed been severly wounded or killed. As usual, you’re right on point…..
DaleL says
There is a fundamental difference between a cult leader and the leader of a movement.
When the leader of a movement is murdered/killed, such as with Martin Luther King, the movement survives. It frequently will become stronger. The strength comes from the members of the movement.
When a cult leader is murdered/killed, the followers lose purpose. They fall into discord. Violence can occur, but not civil war.
Considering how many Americans are needlessly murdered/killed by the misuse of firearms everyday, why should the very people who fail to protect the people they claim to serve, be provided with so much protection? The shooter used an AR-15 type semi-automatic rifle with a detachable magazine. A weapon that was originally designed for war. It was designed to kill people.
If anything good comes out of this tragedy, maybe just maybe there will be some meaningful gun control laws passed. It is a tragedy because Corey Comperatore, a firefighter, was murdered. To his friends and family, this was another senseless gun death in America. We need firefighters; I’m not so sure that we need old men running our government.
Tim Buckwalter says
Don’t forget the “elections have consequences” quote of a sitting president when listing root causes of a lack of political cooperation.
Deborah Coffey says
First of all, no one knows if this was a political assassination or not. Second of all, if Trump wins, it will be the end of democracy in America. If Trump loses, there will be “blood in the streets.” Finally, we’ve been 1″ away from civil war since Donald Trump did not accept his 2020 loss to the presidency and continually promoted his BIG LIE.
Brian says
The left-wing looney liberals have been spewing for three years how Trump is a “threat to democracy”. And now, as you know, the real threat to democracy has been exposed – that Bidens inner circle have known all along that he is an incompetent, stuttering stumblebum and have hidden this fact from the public. This is the new BIG LIE, and the end of Joe Biden.
joe says
It is unspeakably sad to realize how this one man – a life-long con man and fraudster, a serial adulterer and sexual predator, a congenital liar, morally bankrupt and a malignant and cruel narcissist has so successfully blinded so many into believing so many lies – his entire campaign is based on a massive lie – Hitler would be proud.
Let not the attempt on his life deter us from speaking the truth about him – he is still a criminal, still an insurrectionist, still an un-American authoritarian – no matter what flowery words he may speak in his “reworked” acceptance speech to the convention. Don’t be fooled – he and his movement remain a grave danger to our country.
Jackson says
trump’s assassination attempt was definitely horrific and is never the way to solve anything…Now let’s get back to discussing Project 2025. trump’s attempted assassination was a huge deflection but time to move on..Biden surrounds himself with competent, capable people..Our country would be safe if anything happened to Biden..Not so sure about trump though.
As a side note, as soon as the shooter was identified as a white Republican the media dropped the story.
Can’t have people facing the facts and truth or holding those responsible accountable. Truly sickening.
Brian says
What a load of crap. This article seemingly purports that this 20-year-old outcast dirtbag is some sort of political intellectual with a dark agenda. All evidence presented so far indicates that he was a creepy loner, who probably spent his time in his parents’ basement with his sticky keyboard, starved for attention. The fact that he was able to carry out his mission, although thankfully unsuccessful, shines a blinding light on government agencies responsible for security, and on the deficiencies of Bidens’ beloved DEI hiring requirements.
Keith Vinnicombe says
The t-shirt Thomas Crooks is wearing in the photograph and the video of him on the roof is from Demolition Ranch called DEMOLITIA. This is a far right gun loving Nazi organization and it’s not being reported by the right wing media. Go to MeidasTouch on YouTube. Shooter at Trump rally identified. For the truth.
We were 1” away from a civil war which was the motive. Just think what the gun toting MAGA nut jobs would have done after a Trump assassination. Thank god Trump was not assassinated. We must get the truth told.
Jim says
It’s a real shame that this article raises alarms about the Trumpers getting violent if Trump has indeed been severely wounded or killed. It’s as if they aren’t already violent and confrontational now. All I hear from them is attacks on Democrats that hint or propose a violent response. The Project 2025 statement was there will be a conservative revolution “if Democrats will allow it peacefully”. So that implies the Democrats are pushing violence when in fact it’s a Republican thing. There were no liberals participating on January 6 nor at Charlottesville.
I have no idea what the motive for this guy’s attack on Trump but all I see from the Trumpers is the willingness to respond with violence.
What a wonderful political system we have…..