By Amin Saikal
Donald Trump’s re-election as the US president last week comes at a time of extreme volatility in the Middle East.
The president-elect has promised to end all wars. In his usual impulsive and unpredictable manner, he has pledged to resolve the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office and help Israel finish its Gaza and Lebanon operations quickly.
Yet the Middle East is a complex place. Trump will have much difficulty balancing his ardent support of Israel and his other ambitions in the region, especially given the changing dynamics between Iran and its rival, Saudi Arabia.
Here’s what Trump can expect when he takes office in a few months.
Collapse of talks between Israel and Hamas
Overshadowed by the US election was Qatar’s announcement that it has paused its role as a ceasefire mediator between Israel and Hamas.
The tiny, oil-rich emirate has worked hard over the past year to try to reach a deal to end the war. In the process, it made good use of its close relations with the United States, which has its largest Middle East military base in Qatar, and with Hamas, whose political leadership and office have been based in Doha. This, Qatar believed, would help it gain the confidence of the warring parties.
However, its efforts did not produce anything more than a brief ceasefire last year, which resulted in the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.
There are several reasons for this.
For one, the two sides cannot get past a couple of main sticking points. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resolved to eliminate Hamas completely, ruling out a temporary truce. Hamas is demanding a complete end to the fighting and total Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
Meanwhile, Washington has failed to play a meaningful role in the talks. While repeatedly emphasising its desire for a ceasefire, the Biden administration did not at any point put tangible pressure on Israel beyond diplomatic rhetoric.
It has also refused to cut off military aid to Israel. Instead, it approved a US$20 billion (A$30 billion) arms sale to Israel in August. This means Netanyahu has had no compelling reason to divert from his mission.
A possible ceasefire in Lebanon
As the chances of a Gaza ceasefire have faded, hopes have been raised about a Lebanon ceasefire.
Washington has reportedly engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to get Israel and Hezbollah to reach a common ground to end the fighting there.
Israel wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and pushed back at least beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon – about 30km north of the Israeli border – with a security zone to be established between the two. Israel wants to maintain the right to strike Hezbollah if necessary, which Lebanese authorities are likely to reject.
Israel has considerably weakened Hezbollah in its bombing and ground invasion of southern Lebanon at the expense of massive civilian casualties.
However, just as Israel has not been able to wipe out Hamas, it has so far not succeeded in crippling Hezbollah to the extent it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms. The militant group continues to possess sufficient political and military prowess to remain resilient.
Changing regional dynamics
Now, Trump re-enters the scene.
His electoral triumph has comforted Netanyahu’s government to the extent that his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has asked the relevant authorities to prepare for the formal annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Trump has been a committed supporter of Israel for a long time. During his first presidency he recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the US embassy to move there. He also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967.
He castigated Iran as the real villain in the region and withdrew the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear agreement. He also instigated the Abraham Accords, in which several Arab states normalised relations with Israel.
However, the Gaza and Lebanon wars, as well as the direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran over the past year, have changed the regional texture.
Trump has voiced unwavering backing of Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is likely to resuscitate his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. This could involve strangling Tehran with stringent sanctions and blocking its oil exports, while seeking to isolate it internationally.
Meanwhile, as a transactional leader, Trump also wants to strengthen America’s lucrative economic and trade ties with the Arab governments of the region.
However, these countries have been shaken by the scale of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon operations. Their populations are boiling over with frustration at their leaders’ inability to counter Israel’s actions. This is nowhere more evident than in Jordan.
As a result, Saudi Arabia – America’s richest and most consequential Arab ally in the region – has lately taken the lead in voicing strong opposition to Israel. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has also made a path toward an independent Palestinian state a condition of normalising relations with Israel.
Further, Riyadh is strengthening its more than year-long rapprochement with its arch rival, Iran. The two countries’ defence ministers met last weekend, following a joint military exercise involving their navies.
In addition, Bin Salman has just convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh to forge a consensual position in dealing with Israel and the incoming Trump administration.
Where is it all heading?
Trump will need to find a balance between his commitment to Israel and upholding America’s close relations with its traditional Arab allies. This will be crucial to ending the Middle East wars and rebuffing Iran.
Tehran is no longer as vulnerable to Trump’s venom as it may have been in the past. It is more powerful militarily and enjoys strong strategic relations with Russia, China and North Korea, as well as improved relations with regional Arab states.
Given the absence of a Gaza ceasefire, the thin hope of a halt to the Lebanon fighting, Netanyahu’s intransigence and Trump’s pursuance of an “Israel first” policy, the Middle East’s volatility is likely to persist.
It may prove to be as much of a headache for Trump as it was for Joe Biden in a very polarised and unpredictable world.
Amin Saikal is Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at Australian National University.
Deborah Coffey says
President elect IQ45 is not capable of dealing with complexities. He’ll be advised, of course, but he never listens to advice since he thinks he’s the smartest person in the world. Talk about starting WWIII! Leave it to an IQ 45.
Pogo says
@Amin Saikal
How is the weather in Australia?
I Just Love Flagler Beach says
Geez, I kinda remember during Trump’s first presidency that he said he would bring peace to the Middle East and he sent Jared there to make it happen. The only thing Jared accomplished was to get himself $2 Billion from Saudia Arabia. Wonder who’s going to benefit this time???
Michael J Cocchiola says
Pierre… you have a much better understanding of the Middle East than Matt Gaetz.
joe schemo says
Well the first time he was in office he did a great job over there. he was actually nominated for a Noble Peace Prize for all the work he did over there.
Sherry says
@joe. . . and now for some “context”. . . While trump claims he can end a war with ONE PHONE CALL, President Obama actually “WON” the Noble Peace Prize! trump was only “nominated” by “TWO” people out of “thousands” who can submit a nomination :
In recent rallies, President Donald Trump has repeatedly conflated winning a Nobel Peace Prize with being nominated for one, and has wrongly faulted the media for ignoring his nomination after making former President Barack Obama’s nomination in 2009 “the biggest story I’ve ever seen.”
The media attention for Obama came after he won the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump has been nominated, but that’s not the “big thing” he makes it out to be. There are 318 candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize for 2020 — 211 are individuals and 107 organizations.
Any one of thousands of people can nominate someone for the prestigious award. And two people have come forward saying they nominated Trump.
But on its website, the Nobel committee warns not to attach too much importance to a nomination.
“Any person or organization can be nominated by anyone eligible to nominate,” the committee states. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has no input into submissions, though it decides who actually wins the prize. “To simply be nominated is therefore not an endorsement or extended honour to imply affiliation with the Nobel Peace Prize or its related institutions,” the committee states.
Nonetheless, Trump has touted the nomination repeatedly at campaign rallies, on Twitter and in TV ads.
Dennis C Rathsam says
That’s right, I guess all these P/C professors forgot about the Abram Accords! TRUMP did bring peace to the middle east. He made Iran poor, so the terror was minimal . Putin didn’t invade Ukraine, China didnt take Tiawan! And China didn’t buy oil from Iran. AND EVERYTHING WAS SO, SO MUCH CHEAPER!
Ray W, says
Hello Dennis C. Rathsam.
There appears to be a reason why the Abraham Accords are not called the Abraham Peace Accords. Each of the four nations that signed individual accords were already at peace with Israel.
The accords were to “normalize” relations between Israel and Sudan, Morocco, the U.A.E., and Bahrain, respectively, meaning that each nation recognized Israel’s sovereignty and enabled exchange of diplomats.
Sudan signed its accord, but Israel has yet to finalize the agreement. The U.S. loaned Sudan $1.2 billion for its efforts and removed the government from the U.S. list of sponsor states of terrorism.
Morocco and Israel completed their accord. The U.S. agreed to recognize Moroccan claims on neighboring West Africa.
Israel’s agreement with the U.A.E. was the
first such agreement with an Arab state since the 1994 Jordanian accord, which 1994 accord actually did bring peace to the region, as Jordan had invaded Israel several times prior to the accord.
Weeks later, the accord with Bahrain marked yet another Israeli agreement with an Arab state to normalize relations.
No, the Trump administration did not bring peace to the Middle East. None of the four states were in conflict with Israel prior to the signings, nor does it appear that any of the four nation-states have ever waged war on Israel. Truth: 1. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 0.
Yes, Iran was impoverished by sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. But sanctions have been imposed or kept in place by every president since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Iran, impoverished by sanctions over the past 45 years, remains impoverished today. Trump did the same as Biden, so there is nothing of substance to your claim.
Tie on this point. Truth: 1. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 1.
Putin invaded the Ukraine in 2014; it eventually annexed Crimea. The trench war simmered for eight years. Trump did nothing about the simmering war during his four years in office. The February 2022 incursion might best be called a renewal or expansion of the original invasion.
Truth: 2. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 1.
As for Taiwan, China has been claiming it since separation took place in 1948. China’s “One China” policy was accepted by the U.S. in 1979. Since every president since 1948 can claim that China did not take Taiwan, your comment is misleading.
Truth: 2. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 2.
China bought crude oil from Iran during every year of the Trump administration. The amount dropped to almost zero during the pandemic, but it then rebounded. China is now buying less oil from Iran on average than it did during the Trump years, but that is because Russia is selling its oil at reduced prices due to sanctions.
Truth: 3. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 2.
Inflation? The Fed increased the amount of credit available to lending institutions by $3 trillion and artificially lowered the lending rate to 0%, triggering abnormally low mortgage rates to buyers, which jacked up home prices as buyers bid up prices to lock in the low rates. Rental prices followed the rise. This act contributed to the inflation we all endured after the pandemic. Then-President Trump signed into law $2.9 trillion in unfunded stimulus money, which also triggered the onset of inflation. President Biden signed into law another $3 trillion in unfunded stimulus money, which increased the Trump-initiated inflation. Together, the infusion of nearly $9 trillion overheated the economy. Each act contributed its share.
Truth: 4. Dennis C. Rathsam: 0. Tie: 2.
Just another day on the FlaglerLive comment board.
Kennan says
Thanks, Ray!
Land of no turn signals says says
Come on! He has to do a better than talk salad Kamala.
Sherry says
@land. . . I really want to see trump end a war with that “One Phone Call” as he has claimed. . . LOL! LOL! LOL! Hummmm it could work by “Bribery”. . . for which he has already been “Impeached”!
Land of no turn signals says says
Come on Sherry you don’t have to whine and be salty anymore,you have 4 glorious years to verbally attack Trump and the garbage that voted for him no matter how big or small his actions.Deep down I know you feel America made the better choice so cheer up.
Sherry says
@land. . . I’ve said this many times, but I actually still live in “fact based reality”.
Obviously you have “NO” idea what I’m really feeling, so let me lay it out very, very simply so that even you can understand. Every single “principled” person I know is nothing short of appalled by the complete and utter stupidity of each and every person that voted for trump. How completely insane to vote for a twice impeached, “Convicted Felon” who was found “GUILTY” of “Sexual Assault and Defamation”, who was found “Guilty” of Fraud, who is a pathological lier! Those are the facts and those are my feelings. . . because I actually let the credentialled truth guide my life perspective and feelings. . . NOT the other way around.
I’m actually feeling quite joyful this holiday season. . . surrounded by educated, open minded, loving, kind, gracious people. Parties and celebrations galore here in beautiful California. . . planning more international travels. Winning awards and contests for my art. Life is Grand here on the left coast, far away from the immoral maga cult in Florida. Thank You!
BillC says
Trump punked all those who voted for him and especially himself.
Kennan says
If you know nothing else. Know this.
I will make this simple for everyone. I will tell you exactly what will happen.
In recent days presidents elect Trump has said that he will give complete autonomy to Israel in the Middle East.
Officially “no more guard rails”. I say officially because there didn’t seem to be guard rails at all during the current administration. Nothing will change in terms of the GENOCIDE in Gaza. It will however; get much much worse.
The only real difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is that Trump will be more honest about his “ DOUCHEBAGGERY” toward Gaza.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has been appointed by president elect Donald Trump to be U.S. ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is an ardent supporter of West Bank settlement expansion as well as “ Judea and Samaria”. A fierce opponent of a Palestinian state and a staunch defender of settlement expansion. Like Benzalel Smotrich he believes “Palestinian people do not exist “.
Scary stuff from the “Rapure guy”. “The end of times guy”. Let the 21st century “Arab Holocaust “ continue.
The dude says
As I told someone the other day… “at least Kamala feigned a modicum of sympathy for the citizens of Gaza”…
For whatever that’s worth.
The genocide will accelerate under trump. That’s for certain.
Protect your animals from immigrants says
The rest of the world certainly has much respect for the rapist convict with isolationist policies. Our global embarrassment of a leader isn’t “fixin” anything but his criminal record. Haha you got swindled.
Sherry says
Words of wisdom from Frederick Douglass in 1894:
I have sometimes thought that the American people are too great to be small, too just and magnanimous to oppress the weak, too brave to yield up the right to the strong, and too grateful for public services ever to forget them or fail to reward them. I have fondly hoped that this estimate of American character would soon cease to be contradicted or put in doubt. But the favor with which this cowardly proposition of disfranchisement has been received by public men, white and black, by Republicans as well as Democrats, has shaken my faith in the nobility of the nation. I hope and trust all will come out right in the end, but the immediate future looks dark and troubled. I cannot shut my eyes to the ugly facts before me.
Ed P says
Wisdom indeed….and yet he was a libertarian at heart as well as a Republican.
How things change
Rules for thee says
Right the republicans were always pure evil. Sides swapped back in the day. Check out the republicans platform in the 1940s . Today they are pro nazi. Sad we elect rapist criminals.
Ed P says
So you are telling us that Abraham Lincoln was evil along with Susan B Anthony,Clara Barton, and even John Wayne. Dang!
I guess Teddy Roosevelt is included in that vial group as well?