By David Smith
No US president in living memory has gone to war with less public support than Donald Trump has for the war in Iran. Even Barack Obama’s much-maligned Libyan intervention began with 60% of Americans in support in 2011. There is no poll that shows a majority of Americans supporting the Iran war, and multiple polls showing clear majorities against it. And wars usually lose public support as they go on.
Trump did not make a public case for the war before it began, because he preferred quick, surprising strikes preceded by theatrical suspense. He presented the vast military buildup in the Persian Gulf as a high-pressure negotiating tactic in the short-lived bargaining sessions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment.
Trump was undoubtedly emboldened by the tactical success of his removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, though that too was not very popular with Americans.
Wars are not necessarily better when the US government invests a huge effort in justifying them. The justification for the disastrous Iraq War, after all, was based on misperceptions, distortions and falsehoods. But by completely disregarding US public opinion before the war, Trump now finds himself in all kinds of trouble as he tries to fight it.
Americans don’t like seeing themselves as aggressors
Political scientist Bruce Jentleson argued that public support for war in the United States depends not just on how the war is going, but on the public’s understanding of the war’s aims. The US public is much more likely to support wars aimed at imposing restraints on aggressive powers than wars aimed at bringing political change to other countries.
That theory explains why the Bush administration made such an effort to claim Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and was linked to the September 11 terrorist attacks, even though “regime change” was the aim of the Iraq war.
Regime change is also, quite clearly, the aim of the Iran war. Trump has been talking about it for months, and is still talking about it.
It was only after the bombs started falling on Iran that Trump and his administration began to make the case that Iran was an “imminent threat” to the US. It wasn’t very convincing.
After all, Trump had been boasting until recently that he had “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program the year before. In a video released shortly after the attacks, Trump complained about the 1979 Tehran hostage crisis, the 1983 Hezbollah attack on US marines in Beirut, and the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole, which he said Iran was “probably involved in”.
It was left to Secretary of State Marco Rubio to make the convoluted argument that the US was acting in preemptive self-defence, because it knew Israel was going to strike Iran, and that Iran would retaliate against Americans in the Middle East.
That did not play well in a country increasingly wary of Israel. A Gallup poll released just before the war began showed that, for the first time this century, more Americans said their sympathies were with Palestinians than Israelis. Recently, the biggest drop in support for Israel has been among political Independents, whose views have shifted significantly during the Gaza War.
Tucker Carlson, the loudest critic of the Iran war on the right, immediately labelled it “Israel’s war”. Joe Rogan, an influential figure among Trump’s 2024 support base of disillusioned young men, said they felt “betrayed” by the war.
Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has tried to sell the war to Americans by gloating about the death, destruction and fear being inflicted on Iran. Even as investigations show the US military was responsible for the bombing of a school that killed more than a hundred children, he dismisses rules of military engagement as “stupid”. The most recent Quinnipiac Poll showed Hegseth’s approval rating at 37%.
Americans are unprepared for sacrifice
Despite high-profile opponents like Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Trump still has most of the MAGA base with him for now. They were never really opposed to foreign wars. What they hated was losing foreign wars, and Trump is promising them swift victory in Iran.
But Trump has not prepared them or anyone else, including his own cabinet, for the costs this war will incur. Especially the disruption to global oil markets, which the International Energy Agency is calling the largest in history, and which will elevate the cost of everything from travel to food.
Trump’s rhetoric about the price of war has hardly been Churchillian. One night he posted on social media that a short term increase in oil prices is “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
But the next day he was forced to calm markets by claiming the war was nearly over.
The Iranian regime, whose main goal is survival, is well aware of the political and economic vulnerabilities of the US and its Middle Eastern allies, and these appear to be what it is targeting.
At the beginning of the war, Iran’s seemingly scattered attacks on infrastructure, embassies and hotels in Gulf states were a source of mirth for some American commentators. But these were eventually enough to shut down large swathes of energy production and shipping, and inflict far more pain than Trump or his supporters were expecting.
Trump was already facing the same domestic problem that Joe Biden faced. It doesn’t matter how much you tell Americans about positive GDP, stock market and employment numbers; if they are struggling with the cost of living, their view of both the economy and the President will be bleak.
Trump’s glib dismissals of the price of oil are sounding a lot like his airy reassurances at the beginning of the pandemic.
Few Republicans in Congress have been prepared to stand up to Trump over the war. But as midterm elections approach, many of them will be silently praying he finds an excuse to end it as soon as possible.
David Smith is Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy at the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
JimboXYZ says
Getting to the point where +/-40% approval rating is a standard thing for any POTUS ? They all suck, some took hope and just outright turned that into despair with their brand of leadership. Congress is another that hasn’t exuded confidence. Congress is fortunate to score between 20-25 % job approval, quite often in the low to mid teens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating
https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/us-congress-approval-rating
Skibum says
The dumbass clown in the WH intentionally did not seek the advice and consent of Congress regarding his fantastical plan to arbitrarily launch a U.S. military attack on Iran, and did not give a shit that he was acting on his own without a congressional war authorization. He not only didn’t try to use his bully pulpit to convince the American public that such an attack using America’s sons and daughters would be a good idea, he intentionally hid his video game wet dream of a Middle East shoot-em-up “excursion” from the American public… knowing full well that there would be overwhelming opposition to such a hairbrained, asinine, and totally unnecessary scheme that would end up with caskets of dead service members arriving back at Dover AFB. He only has “yes” men in the current circus tent drumph administration, those who have seen what happens to anyone who dares suggest that this convicted felon pedo prez is not the bigly, most awesome brainiac like this nation has never seen before!
So now… NOW, that Iran’s threat to attack and sink any oil tankers that attempt to transit through the Strait of Hormuz has become reality, the one and only circus clown-in-chief dumb enough to be Netanyahu’s stooge and start a war with Iran with no means to single handedly protect the shipping lanes in the Strait seems to be finally, belatedly, and probably unconvincingly sending his puppy dog “Little Rubio” out in a desperate attempt to drum up after the fact support from other countries for an attack that should have NEVER happened in the first place!
Little Rubio’s frantic diplomatic order via State Dept. cable to all U.S. embassies and consulates states in part: “We assess that the Iranian regime is more sensitive to collective action than unilateral action, and that joint pressure is more likely to compel behavior change by the regime than unilateral actions alone.” Well, HELL! The American public knew that from the very beginning! Most elected officials in Congress have long held that knowledge as well! Any idiot would know the pitfalls of making a unilateral decision to launch a war without bringing in our allies for support… DUH!
Well, all except the brainiac convicted felon pedo prez in the WH, who constantly tells everyone within earshot that he IS the most special, most talented, most awesome, most knowledgeable, most everything in the most bigliest way like nobody has ever seen before person… yet he doesn’t possess enough brain cells to comprehend the basic foundational principles of obtaining support for going to war, proper planning for war, or what is even the intended outcome and eventual end game after mounting a military “excursion – he doesn’t even know that he is attempting to say “incursion”, NOT “excursion” as if he is sending our military on a vacation side trip from a tropical cruise. What a dumbass bimbo ASSHOLE who is personally responsible for the totally unnecessary deaths of U.S. military members HE ordered to the Middle East after dodging the draft himself with incomprehensible, probably fake “bone spurs” because he is nothing but a cowardly little man who should NEVER EVER have been elected into a position of such power over others, let alone an entire nation!
DaleL says
To write that Pete Hegseth “…dismisses rules of military engagement as “stupid”.” is a gross understatement. Four days ago, Pete Hegseth called for “No Quarter” for US enemies. No Quarter is the term for murdering captured enemy soldiers. It is a WAR CRIME.
A lot more than just oil normally transited the Strait of Hormuz. Also shipped were a large amount of the world’s liquefied natural gas, copper, and aluminum. Saudi Arabia has a couple of pipelines which cross the nation to the Red Sea. That oil flow is continuing, but is a small fraction of the oil. Trapped in the Arabian Gulf are some 200 oil tankers. The oil storage in the region is full. As a result, oil production has stopped. Restarting production will take many months.
This is Trump’s war. The higher gasoline prices are just the beginning. The shortage of aluminum and copper will result in higher prices for cars and electronics. The president, who promised to release his tax returns, provide better health care, to release the Trump-Epstein files, to lower inflation, and not get the US into endless wars, has LIED over and over.
The latest hypocrisy is the attempt to bully the broadcast networks into being “Patriotic” and only spinning the war in favorable terms. Make no mistake, the Iran war is Trump’s war. It is an ill conceived war of aggression, which is also consider a WAR CRIME.
Perhaps Trump’s low support is the realization, except his most fanatical supporters, that he is a lying hypocrite.
Al says
I love the way some blowhard from the left tells how we feel. Everyone I know supports this invasion as it’s like pulling a tick out of your leg. The polls I see don’t show this great loss of support unless you only conduct your polls in blue cities. I’ll absorb the increase in fuel over a short period of time for greater world peace. I didn’t see this level of concern when Biden raised the gas prices as a policy strategy to sell EVs. I guess it’s still bullshit dems okay Trump bad.
Pierre Tristam says
AI’s selective reading–when he’s not being insulting, demeaning and bullying, because he’s begging to be banned–helps his hallucinations.
A new poll shows Trump’s core base is shrinking (Pew poll)
Three Polls That Show Donald Trump is Losing His Base
Base Erodes As Trump Drops To New Low Scores, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds
Skibum says
Well, apparently you somehow missed all of the voices from both current and retired military leaders, politicians and everyday Americans who have been stating from day 1 that this unilateral, undeclared war “excursion” as the bimbo in the WH has called it is a very bad idea. I think it is much more likely that you have a condition called SELECTIVE HEARING!
Keenan Hreib says
The polls i see. When living in a echo chamber and probably watching FOX RELIGIOUSLY, you understadly miss everything. Your world view is so unsurprisingly narrow that you enjoy being pissed on and told it’s rain. If it’s any consolation, your boy DON got peed on too. I think Bi Bi or Puten or both have that tape though.
PaulT says
This: on the Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center who just resigned.saying he “cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran”.
The Senate confirmed Joe Kent as Trump’s pick for the role last July.
Addressing Trump in his resignation letter, Kent says: “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
“I support the values and the foreign policies that you campaigned on in 2016, 2020, 2024, which you enacted in your first term.
“Until June of 2025, you understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap that robbed America of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation.
“As a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times and as a Gold Star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people nor justifies the cost of American lives.
The article points out that the MAGA only disapprove of overseas wars when America loses.
The last two wars of aggression in the Middle East, against Iraq and Afghanistan were abject and costly failures, so was Vietnam. Yet most of MAGA still support the Trump insisted, undeclared war against Iran. (as long as we are WINNING?)
‘When will they ever learn’
Sherry says
Maga should post links to the “bi-partisan” polls showing support for trump’s outrageous war. . . otherwise, we will all continue to understand that such passionate Maga members are indoctrinated idiots. . . and, much worse, in some cases!
Here’s a link to “multiple” polls of Republicans and Democrats showing trump approval rating extremely low:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
PDE says
Skibum, you nailed it completely as usual, nice job.
trump barges in like a complete d**k, then realizes that he needed the support of our allies (to say nothing of Congress) before even thinking about invading Iran.
When Iran then blocks the Straight of Hormuz, the stupid stooge tries to rally our allies around his incredibly stupid idea because he is out of any ideas of his own.
In the meantime his war “bro” pete hegseth tries to sound tough but only reveals his own ignorance and stupidity as well.
And now, trump’s own pick to direct the US National Counterterrism resigns because he states that Iran wasn’t a ever a threat to the US in the first place.
Yes, trump’s war is going well…………..
PaulT says
Trump didn’t exactly “try to rally our allies’ he demanded that they do the convoy duty and take the risk of escorting merchant ships under fire through the Straits,, which the US Navy seems to have shied away from.
NATO politely offered to pick up that responsibility after a ceasefire is confirmed.
This is the BBC’s summary of today’s Trump nonsense :
‘Donald Trump criticises Nato and other US allies, saying he has been told they “don’t want to get involved” in the Iran war
In a post on Truth Social, he says: “We no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the Nato countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID!”
It’s Toddler Trump Tantrum Time, I think he needs a nap.
Dennis C Rathsam says
You know the best thing for the above 1/2 ass jackasses…. There’s no cure for TDS! It only gets worse.
Sherry says
“TDS”= Trump DEVOTION Syndrome! That evil force is very powerful in the Maga Cult!
Laurel says
Trump Delusional Syndrome
Trump Dysentery Syndrome
Trump Disingenuous Syndrome
Trump Debacle Syndrome
The results of orange kool aide.
Skibum says
Add to that…
These Flagler County maga retirees must have Trump Dementia Syndrome.
Ed P says
Sherry, Laurel, and Skibum,
Once your party identifies a suitable candidate for President and actually holds a primary, presents, and proves your candidate to be worthy of a look…. Im first in line.
It’s nothing of the sorts referencing your cheesy names.
Simply provide some outstanding choices for the office and prove that it is anything else. Your name calling isn’t fooling the informed voters.
It’s always rhetoric over reality. The reality is you gave us no “real” choice. You only have your party to blame.
Ps In your heart of hearts, do you believe Kamala Harris and ole’ Knucklehead were the best of your best?
Pierre Tristam says
If the Democrats weekend-at-bernied Jimmy carter’s corpse and presented it as the nominee it would still be an incalculably better choice than any of the GOP’s Rubio-Vance zombies on offer, to say nothing of the current catacomb-filler.
Ed P says
Your drink of choice on me in 3 if you are correct. If not, it’s Don Julio 1942 in a bourbon glass with a large cube.
I’m not convinced the Democrats will have it figured out by then.
Pierre Tristam says
I agree, the Democrats are America’s Palestinians, they’re great at snatching defeat from their own asses’ jawbones. Hence the apt Democratic symbol.
Skibum says
Gee wiz, let me see… so damn hard to decide between the democrat candidate for president and the convicted felon, adjudicated sex abuser, serial con man. Hmmm, a toss-up really in my mind. Hmmm, how to decide?! Why oh why are these presidential elections becoming so difficult to choose?
Wow, Ed P… do you REALLY expect an answer to your question that doesn’t involve absurdity?!
Sherry says
Right On Laurel and Skibum!
PDE says
In 2024, voters had the choice of electing a former prosecutor or a (multiple) convicted felon.
In an incredible act of stupidity, they chose the felon.
If they hadn’t, we wouldn’t be subject to all the drama, dysfunction, chaos and tragedy that trump and his minions have created.
Our allies would there for us if we needed them, for just about any good reason.
Now, the middle east hates us even more than before (except for israel, of course – nice job conning trump bibi).
We’re thousands of miles away from this war, and don’t have to experience the killing, destruction and hell that innocent Iranian citizens are going through – many who will never recover their former lives from this.
Iran is led by a despicable leader but I’m guessing that most Iranian citizens want to live their lives in peace, just like us and most of the rest of the citizens of this world.
It’s the leaders of countries that are to blame for wars and killing, and our ‘leader’ is no exception.
Sherry says
Well let’s see. . . why did I vote for Kamala Harris?
* A Person Born in 1946 . . . VS . . . A Person Born in 1964
* A Convicted Felon. . . VS. . . A Successful Prosecutor
* An Adjudicated Guilty Sexual Assaulter. . . VS. . . A US Senator
* A Draft Dodger (bone spurs) . . . VS. . . A Vice President
* An Adulterer . . .VS . . . A Happily Married Person Who is Well Liked by Step Children
* A Person Who Consorted With Pedofiles . . . VS. . . An Attorney General
*An “Unpopular” President. . . VS. . . A Person, As President of the Senate, set a new record for the most tie-breaking votes in history. Plus many other accomplishments.
Then there is the “important” difference:
* A “White Man” . . . VS. . . A “Woman of Color”
Skibum says
Thank you, Sherry. That’s what I consider factual decision making! If I could somehow sentence every damn maga supporter to take a Critical Thinking education class, maybe, just maybe that would clear the space between their ears from all the cobwebs, turn on that lightbulb of a brain and restore their sanity.
Sherry says
Good morning from CA, Skibum!
Me also, I would love to see “critical thinking”. . . any kind of thinking. . . return to the millions who have been completely indoctrinated by the fear and hate propaganda of Fox for over 20 years. Unfortunately, they have been “DUPED” by, trump. . . an evil master manipulator!
What will it take for people to “snap out of it ” . . . regain their courage, their empathy and compassion, their moral compass, their thinking ability, their belief in facts? Wishing I could wave a magic wand filled with those things. I would wave it over the entire world. . .
Ed P says
Hello Sherry and Skibum,
Critical thinking has to be based in logic and reality, if not, it ceases to be a tool for discovering truth and becomes a process of RATIONALIZATION, INDOCTRINATION, or even DELUSION.
It is often described as “conspiranoid” thought where your ideology, emotional vibes and personal biases become what you believe is actually data.
joe says
This is a sobering look at what may come:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/20/opinion/iran-war-attacks-map.html
When you think of who is running this debacle, it makes you sick. Entered into mainly to keep his pedophile past hidden.