Since 2007, enrollment in Flagler County’s nine traditional, brick and mortar schools has barely budged even as the county’s population has surged. Enrollment in those schools was 12,580 in 2007. At last count this year, it is 12,478–a slight decline both from 2007 and from the end of last school year, when enrollment rose a bit.
The district is artificially bulking up its enrollment numbers by including its iFlagler, or virtual, students, which adds 177 students, by including VPK, which adds 277 students, and by including the nearly 900 students who attend Imagine School at Town center, the district’s only charter school–a privately run but publicly funded school. That brings the total number of students to 13,829.
But 1,351 of those students–the equivalent of an entire middle school–do not attend the district’s own brick-and-mortar schools.
Despite those figures, the district is projecting the need for a new middle school to be designed in 2029, for between 1,800 and to 2,000 students, and a new high school to be designed and built sometime between 2029 and 2033, for 2,400 to 2,600. The projected cost for the middle school would be $175 million, for the high school, $230 million. That’s on the assumption that district enrollment will have grown by a third by then.
District staff has no illusions: it includes the future schools on its list of long-term projects only as potential needs, not as certainties. “Of course, based on our enrollment, what our numbers are, that will either slide to the right or slide to left,” Kory Bush, the district’s director of plant services, told the Flagler County School Board at a workshop last Tuesday, meaning that the projected date of design and construction would either be pushed out (to the right) or moved up (to the left). Almost every year, the projection has been pushed back.
Still, Bush said the projection for design and construction in the 2029-33 period is based on October enrollment numbers, though those numbers don’t suggest enrollment is at a pace that would justify the projections.
An impact fee analysis a private consultant conducted for the district in 2021 by TischlerBise, the consultant local governments frequently use to set their development impact fees (the one-time fee builders and developers pay to cost of “impact” of new residents on schools, roads, parks and so on), projected an enrollment of 13,252 by 2025, and 14,345 by 2030. (See the projections here.) The projection was very close to the mark.
But it did not account for students attending virtually. It had accounted for the proportion of students attending private school or being homeschooled. But that was before a new law eliminated barriers on school vouchers. The new law opened the way for any student from any family, regardless of income, to be eligible for up to $8,000 in subsidies either to attend private school or be homeschooled. That’s what accounts for the major difference between the consultant’s enrollment projections and the reality the district faces.
Last year, $10 million in state education dollars that would have otherwise gone to the school district were redirected as private-schooling subsidies. The number of students who received those subsidies in Flagler County surged to 1,250, from just 136 in 2021. The number is expected to keep increasing. (See: “How Flagler Schools’ ‘Truth in Millage’ Budget Hid $10 Million Going to Private and Home School Tuition” and “Flagler Schools’ Budget Is Millions Short from 10 Years Ago as District Is Forced to Shift Tax Dollars to Private Schools.”)
The district’s own documentation shows that under its so-called “Capital Outlay Full-Time Equivalent Enrollment” of students (meaning students who use brick-and-mortar schools), enrollment this year is at 12,243, with a projection of 12,715 by 2029–still not the sort of numbers that would call for a new middle school, let alone a new middle school or a high school. In fact, in the district’s projections, capacity would be only 81 percent last year, and would be at 85 percent by the end of the decade even with today’s buildings. (See those district projections here.)
The district ended last school year with Buddy Taylor Middle School at just 71 percent capacity, Old Kings Elementary at 77 percent, and Rymfire at 66 percent. Only Flagler Palm Coast High School and Indian Trails Middle School were at over 90 percent capacity.
Actual enrollment figures, based on the district’s own week-by-week tallies, tell the tale. In 2015, Belle Terre Elementary School had 1,073 students, even when sixth graders were excluded (since 6th grade was moved to middle school a few years ago). This month, enrollment was 1,090. At Rymfire, enrollment was 960 in 2015 (without 6th grade). This month: 969. At Wadsworth Elementary, it went from 789 to 798.
If 6th graders were excluded from middle schools, Indian Trails and Buddy Taylor would have lost enrollment, compared to 2015: The two schools combined for 1,959 students in 7th and 8th grade in 2015. This month, the two schools combined for 1,803 students in those two grades, an 8 percent decline.
Flagler Palm Coast High School and Matanzas High School have gained students since 2015, going from 4,074 to 4,600, with most of that increase accounted for by the new addition at Matanzas High School.
“We’re constantly reviewing the numbers, reviewing capacity for all of our all of our schools,” Superintendent LaShakia Moore said. “Another thing that may have to come before this board again, which was not a popular conversation in the past, is to adjust the attendance zones and rezone the district in order to level out elementary specifically.” She mentioned Belle Terre, Old Kings and Wadsworth as schools that have accommodated more students in the past. “It’s definitely tight at some schools, but not tight enough for us to say that we need to build an elementary school,” she said, noting that rezoning is a different matter.
Sally says
Has Flagler County budgeted for new schools? Bet they haven’t. They sure don’t plan very well in Flagler County, not for additional population but the greedy builders are allowed to continue to build developments wherever they can find a vacant lot.
Billy says
Hold off on that plan. People are moving out of Palm Coast, not in. Also, people are leaving Florida at a record rate!
Deborah Coffey says
Well, if you want the United States to be tops in the OECD countries in education then follow one of the best: According to available information, a typical Finnish high school usually has significantly fewer students than a large American high school, with most schools having less than 400 students, while the largest high schools may have around 1,400 students; meaning a single Finnish high school generally has between a few hundred to around 1,400 students.
JimboXYZ says
I guess the battle cry is that the schools we do have will be 8 years older & that mold will be an issue. The same reasons we’ve heard over the last 5 years. Between the STF & these schools, $ 640 million dollars. taxpayers are going to have to remove the one’s coming up with these budgets. Rezone the schools districts for the transient renters for unaffordable housing. Alfinville strikes again. I want to know who the geniuses were that came up with the turn lane from BJ’s to Seminole Woods Parkway on SR 100 ? Why that wasn’t done when SR 100 was repaved is just another example of the stupid & incompetence that has been the last 3.5 years of Alfin’s (lack of) Vision for 2050 (another 1/4 century of gridlock 2025-2050). And don’t get me started on the left turn in front of the Ale House with no traffic light.
FlaglerLive says
There is no evidence of any net migration out of Palm Coast and plenty of continuing evidence of in-migration. If you can show differently, please provide data.
Lois says
If you have school age children, you should consider moving to Finland? There you can bet what you want and pay 50% or more of your wages in taxes.
Lisa says
I see a lot of houses for sale still. Asking price deductions as well. I see a lot of builder for sale signs for houses that were built long ago offering incentives. To me that sounds like more are moving out and less moving in. My question is where would the new schools be built. What I don’t see is any space left to build a school, there are houses everywhere. And I don’t care to pay for a school in my taxes of which I do not have kids. I’m going to need every penny I have to address the issues in my own house.
Jim says
Guys, everyone should just chill! The Legislature passed a law allowing tax dollars to be used by anyone and everyone who wants to either home school or put their kid in a private school. All that money is coming out of the budget for public school. And, if you just look at the chart provided in the article, the enrollment in Flagler County is pretty much stagnant since in the Free State of Florida, you can get tax dollars to opt out of the public school system! So there won’t be any need to build new schools for “expansion” since there isn’t any. At some point, new schools will need to be built to replace aging ones but my experience has been that a school building will likely go 50+ years before that becomes an issue. And, who knows? Maybe by then, everyone will be home schooling or sending their kids to private schools anyway! So relax and enjoy the show. After all, Florida is one of the top states in the nation in educating our children!! (Right??)
Oh, and by the way, Jimbo XYZ, thanks for bringing up the turn lane at BJ’s and Alfin -both key elements of this discussion.
Jack says
Does anyone else see the almont non growth pattern here? Why would we need more school buildings? In addition NOT ONE SINGLE school is at capacity?
Deborah Coffey says
Yes, they pay a lot in taxes that cover education and all healthcare. Imagine if you could raise a family and not worry about those two things. If you look at the strongest democracies, Finland ranks 3rd…the United States ranks 36th. https://www.democracymatrix.com/ranking
Deborah Coffey says
Don’t believe anything you hear from this Florida government. Florida’s ranking in education? https://www.nea.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/2024_rankings_and_estimates_report.pdf
Dr. Vann Pinchapenny says
Has anyone thought to ask why is it $200m to build a school? Uh, because the contractors say so? Because it’s the “gubbermint”? Do you really think that private enterprise would pay two hundred mil for, what, 50k sq ft? Lets just call it 100k sq ft. That’s $2,000 per sf!
At TWO HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS, you could have literally TWENTY 85k square foot Margaritaville hotels built with 100 rooms each, ALONG THE OCEAN!
NO. Someone look at the numbers. They ain’t realistic. $200m per school my arse!
Stop The Insanity says
So they build more schools, that Flagler may or may not need. Have they considered the cost of maintaining the schools and hiring staff to accommodate the students, etc.? They don’t care how they spend other people’s money.