Paul Renner, the Republican former Florida House speaker who has just launched a campaign for governor, lacks the backing of either President Donald Trump or Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Renner says it doesn’t matter — he still expects to win the GOP nomination by taking advantage of a deepening rift between DeSantis supporters and Trump loyalists ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race and legislative session. Renner believes he may have the “unifying” message conservative voters are looking for.
“It looks like there may be a looming civil war, and I’m going to put Florida first. That’s going to be my approach,” Renner told the Florida Phoenix in a telephone interview. “I think the race will look very different a year from now than it does today.”
Renner, 58, referred to the growing tension between Trump and DeSantis allies as they prepare for a reignited proxy battle between the two firebrands. Trump has backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, while DeSantis has been elevating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
This leaves Renner to seek a third lane to the governor’s mansion, without a substantial backer.
Political analyst Susan MacManus, professor emerita at the University of South Florida, said Renner’s success depends on his ability to drive media attention, rake in money, and whether his rivals implode.
“The key is, will the other two end up destroying each other and leave an avenue for someone like him? That’s really the only real strategy that he’s got right now,” MacManus told the Phoenix.
Renner has roughly $1 million in his political committee account, compared to Donalds’ $22 million.
Collins, who has yet to announce a bid, has around $500,000 in his committee account and a reported net worth under $2 million.
Renner plans to emphasize his alignment with Trump’s MAGA agenda while defining his record as “inseparable” from DeSantis’s legacy, which was largely built when Renner served as House Speaker.
He played a key role in passing controversial legislation that served as a springboard for DeSantis’s 2023 presidential campaign, including a first-in-the-nation crackdown on diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives; expanding the death penalty to child rapists; banning transgender therapies for minors; and a stringent six-week abortion ban.
Still, DeSantis has publicly refused to endorse Renner.
Renner isn’t fazed.
“Once voters have the year that’s ahead of us to look at all the candidates, I do believe that I’ll be successful to become the Republican nominee, and then ultimately go on to beat whoever the Democrats put up,” the Jacksonville-area attorney said.
But that will be a tall task for the gubernatorial hopeful.
‘Ego and politics and pettiness’
Renner served as House speaker from 2022 through 2024 as DeSantis flexed an iron grasp over the Legislature. The period was marked by a sweeping Republican supermajority and very little pushback from within against DeSantis, partially due to Renner. DeSantis’ priorities easily slid through the Legislature to help construct the platform from which he would launch his presidential campaign.
Renner remains in lockstep with DeSantis on top issues facing Florida, including supporting mid-decade redistricting, signing a repeal of all vaccine mandates, and slicing or eliminating property taxes, he said.
That in-sync image Republicans constructed under Renner’s two-year tenure shattered when the new House speaker, Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican, asserted the House’s independence from the executive branch. Kicking off the latest era of Republican infighting, Perez attempted to stymie DeSantis throughout the 2025 session, encouraging House investigatory committees to comb through the finances of First Lady Casey DeSantis’s Hope Florida charity while criticizing the governor as “emotional.”
It marked the first time during DeSantis’ tenure that he presided over an openly defiant GOP-led Legislature.
Renner fears these open clashes are dangerous for the Republican Party — which has more than 1 million more registered voters than Democrats — and augur a larger battle within the GOP. Reflecting on his own speakership alongside then-Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, Renner revealed that although they had disagreed with DeSantis at times, they always worked it out privately.
“Through intermediaries, we talked about where we had differences, we worked through those, and then we came out in public, arm in arm. That’s why we were so successful,” Renner said, declining to specify what disagreements he had with the governor.
“I’m going to always put the mission and the goal of what Floridians need ahead of ego and politics and pettiness. I have no use for it,” he added.
‘You got to deliver wins’
Renner would be the first former House Speaker to become Florida governor in recent history, signaling that while legislative leaders wield significant influence during their tenure, building broader name recognition remains a tough obstacle to achieving higher office.
Polling from the conservative Tyson Group, helmed by former DeSantis pollster Ryan Tyson, shows Donalds with a commanding lead over Renner and Collins. That distance lengthens when voters are told about Donalds’ Trump endorsement.
Donalds’ 40% to Renner’s and Collins’ 2% apiece doesn’t mean much this long before the Aug. 2026 primary, Renner, a Navy veteran, argues. Historically, candidates previously thought to be surefire winners early in the race ended up losing.
“‘Bill McCollum’s going to be your next governor. Adam Putnam’s going to be your next governor. Little Marco Rubio from the speaker’s office is at 2%, like Paul Renner is — they’re never going to make it,’” he said, mimicking political operatives and drawing comparisons between himself and Marco Rubio, a former state House speaker who now serves as Trump’s Secretary of State and National Security Adviser.
“The people that counted Marco out — and many did — are the same voices that are saying look, this guy’s got money, he’s way ahead, he’s got an endorsement. And that’s just not what voters ultimately want,” Renner continued.
He said voters want someone with proven wins and a record of having “run something” to lead the country’s third largest state.
“Everybody can talk in bumper stickers, and do interviews, and post on social media — and I’ll certainly do some of those things. But you got to deliver some results. You got to deliver wins,” he added.
The winner of the Republican primary will face off against the Democratic nominee for the governor’s race. The only prominent Democrat in the race so far is David Jolly, a former U.S. representative.
–Livia Caputo, Florida Phoenix
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