By Alexander Cohen
Should Americans be bracing for bloodshed if Donald Trump loses the 2024 presidential election?
As a political scientist who studies American politics, I can easily imagine a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection – or worse – following this November’s presidential election.
Flashback to 2020
Four years ago, in an attempt to overturn his loss in the 2020 presidential election, then-President Donald Trump and his surrogates furiously challenged its results. Lodging 63 lawsuits, Trump and his surrogates tried to discredit or override vote counting, election processes and certification standards in nine states.
None of these attempts was successful. Many were dismissed as baseless – often by Trump-appointed judges – before they even saw trial. Simply put, there is no evidence of widespread fraud. Even a voter data expert hired by Trump concluded that the 2020 election was not stolen.
The U.S. legal system agreed, demonstrating that courts remain an important bulwark protecting American democracy. Yet the legal system cannot prevent political violence wrought by election denialism, as the country soon learned.
On Jan. 6, 2021, over 2,000 people stormed the United States Capitol to forcibly prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 presidential election. Four people died and 138 police officers were injured during the riot, which inflicted nearly US$3 million of damage. Four officers who responded to the riot would later kill themselves.
The mob was spurred, at least in part, by Trump’s rousing speech at a rally in Washington, D.C., earlier that day. There, he reiterated his claims that the 2020 election had been “stolen by emboldened radical-left Democrats” and warned the crowd of approximately 53,000 that “if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
Many legal scholars considered this to be incitement.
“He clearly knew there were people in that crowd who were ready to and intended to be violent,” legal scholar Garrett Epps told the BBC. “He not only did nothing to discourage it, he strongly hinted it should happen.”
Trump: A sore loser … and winner
Trump has a long history of denying the results of any contest whose outcome he does not like.
Before entering the political arena, Trump called the 2012 Emmys “dishonest” because his show, “The Apprentice,” did not win. In 2012, he dismissed then-President Barack Obama’s reelection as a “total sham” and questioned the accuracy of vote tallies and voting machines. Unleashing a barrage of tweets, Trump urged citizens to “fight like hell” against a “disgusting injustice.”
As a presidential candidate in 2016, Trump called the Republican primaries fraudulent after his competitor Sen. Ted Cruz won in Iowa, tweeting that the Texan “stole it.”
Ultimately, Trump won the Republican primaries and the national presidential campaign against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nonetheless, he falsely claimed that he only lost the popular vote – Trump fell 2 million short of Clinton’s 65.8 million votes – due to massive voting among illegal immigrants.
Attacking the 2024 election
Trump has doubled down on his election denial this election cycle. By May 2024, The New York Times had documented 550 such statements, up from roughly 100 in the entire 2020 campaign.
Continuing to insist that the 2020 election was “rigged,” Trump predicts a repeat in 2024.
This narrative of pervasive victimization has been bolstered by a flurry of lawsuits and criminal investigations brought against the former president. Since 2020, state and federal prosecutors have charged Trump with 94 crimes, including business fraud, mishandling classified documents and interfering with the federal election.
In New York, he was convicted of 34 counts of corporate fraud and found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case filed by author E. Jean Carroll.
Trump has cast these legal challenges as a deliberate attempt by President Joe Biden to interfere with the 2024 election over 350 times.
“My legal issues, every one of them, civil and the criminal ones, are all set up by Joe Biden,” Trump told a New York City crowd in January 2024. “They’re doing it for election interference.”
His surrogates amplify this message. For instance, Mike Howell, director of the right-leaning Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, proclaimed on June 6, 2024, at a public Washington event that there is a “0% chance of a free and fair election.”
From denialism to violence: Warning signs
Lying about election results is no mere tantrum. It is a cornerstone of Trump’s strategy to paint himself as the victim of an elitist deep state – an image that appeals to his base, particularly among white working-class voters, some of whom feel that they are victims themselves of globalization and shadowy elites.
This strategy is working.
A September 2023 survey by the independent pollster PRRI showed that 32% of Americans believe that the 2020 election was stolen. Even though the question has been comprehensively litigated and dismissed in the courts, many American citizens simply do not believe, under any circumstances, that Trump can lose in a fair election.
That fact, combined with other statistics from the same poll, explains why I believe another Jan. 6 is possible.
About 23% of Americans and 33% of Republicans believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” – a 5% increase among Republicans and 8% among the general public since 2021.
Meanwhile, 75% of Americans believe that American democracy is at risk in the 2024 election. That, too, may be something worth fighting for – especially when 39% of Trump supporters and 42% of Biden supporters report having no friends who support the opposing candidate. When people do not trust or socialize with people unlike them, violence between groups is more likely.
I fear little can be done to prevent such violence.
In 2022, Congress, acting in rare bipartisan fashion, approved the Electoral Count Reform and Transition Improvement Act of 2022, which closed many doors that President Trump attempted to use to thwart the 2020 election. Yet, as history shows, rule of law is not a certain brace against violence.
Given the perceived stakes of the election for most Americans, along with Trump’s ever-sharpening incendiary rhetoric, it is hard to imagine that Jan. 6, 2021, was an isolated chapter in American history.
Indeed, it may have been just a prelude.
Alexander Cohen is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Clarkson University.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Mike says
It would be far worse if Trump wins. The far left will push for violence and cities will burn as they did before. The Dems are far worse for destruction!
DaleL says
Donald Trump won in 2016 and there was no violence as a result. I believe that you (Mike) are mistaking the police brutality protests (George Floyd) and resulting riots with “Dems” and elections. Democrats urged peaceful protests, not violence.
If Mr. Trump does win, there could be violence if he attempts to over through the Constitution and become “President for Life”. Surprisingly, a lot of Americans do not like fascist dictators.
Deborah Coffey says
Except…Trump will never win again. What WOULD be far worse is if the Nazi dictator takes over our country. Even YOU would never be safe again…not to mention, you’ll be broke just like the rest of us.
Wobie says
Got proof? I’ll wait ….
Didn’t think so, just pure conjecture.
Both sides make up things to suit their POV without any solid proof. Fox News and MSNBC are not proof, and neither are any of the talking heads who spout off ridiculous pablum. Therefore, as an intelligent, educated human being, I make my own decisions and not decisions based on any pundit, politician, conspiracy theorist or other influencer.
Time to think for yourselves and stop falling for the BS dribbled from said groups, individuals, and organizations.
Just my 2 cents. Take it or leave it. I know some will have to attack my comments, because that’s what they do. Have at it!
Have a great week and carry on.
Eleanor Coyne says
Show the proof! What backs up your idiotic statement. Unfortunately democrats don’t fight enough.
Sherry says
@mike. . . Please do “try” and unglue yourself from the deceptive propaganda of Fox. Try to comment in a factual way. Speaking as if the George Floyd protests regarding the “murder” of a man by police should in any way compare to the horrific “insurrection” against our government and democracy make you look very foolish. It is the extreme right Republicans that want to overthrow our democracy. . . while threatening violence. . . NOT the Democrats!
Jake from state farm says
Or if Trump wins the “mostly peaceful” rioting, burning and looting of our cities happen again but this time far worse.
Justbob says
Supporters of Donald Trump seem to live in a mostly visceral world that doesn’t accommodate the intrusion of critical thinking or even rational thought. It’s a world of issues relating to deep inward feelings rather than intellect. Trump when he declared he loves the uneducated, validated them as well as the coarse and base emotions that define their world. He welcomed the dumbing down of almost half of the country, feed and continues to feed that crowd with so much PT Barnum bullshit, with gaslighting becoming his artform. He has very successfully tapped into their little visceral world of primal fear, raw emotion and alternative facts…things that not only brought on Jan 6th, but is very likely to do it again. He’s already priming the pump since the stakes are even higher now for Donald given that an election loss may be much more than just that. It could possibly mean jail time.
JimboXYZ says
The bigger issue is how the effects of Hurricane Helene affects voting in the SE USA. We are right at 30+ days out from election day. We’ve already heard that immediate declaration of a winner won’t happen on Super Tuesday as it’s called. The millions without power & water throughout the SE USA would’ve gotten their USPS delivered ballots on Saturday-ish. Roads out from flooding a lot of those ballots sit at a post office, if they even left the Elections Government Office(s). I’d suspect the elections offices sent those out for better or worse, because there are most likely guidelines & deadlines for a final ballot for mail ins to be sent out. And let’s say the ballots are recieved & submitted. No power still an issue in some areas & those votes would have to be taken to where they could be scanned. A larger area of an entire quadrant of the USA for voting is affected by Dam failures & resultant flooding.
Atwp says
I Trump, loose he will not bow out quietly.
Laurel says
I honestly don’t know if there will be significant violence. Trump lies so often, and Vance admits creating harmful stories, that people are becoming exhausted, and want normal behavior again. This babyshit has gone on long enough.
If Trump and awkward Vance win, I believe a dark state will take out Trump, it’s been two attempts already, but not by the deep state Trump cries about. Both shooters were registered Republicans. Young Vance would become President and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 would succeed, with the support of the Federalist Society.
Rational Americans don’t want that either. So, let’s hope that Harris and Walz win, and this crazy-assed foolishness ends.
Shark says
Just go to you tube and type in – Trump mocks National Anthem and you will see for yourself what he thinks of our country !!!
Joseph Barand says
I want to know if our Sheriff will follow Trump’s order to lockup anyone and everyone who did not support him. Staley supported the insurrectionists lead by Joe Mullins with additinal training as they load busses leaving Flagler County. I want to know what I should to do if Deputies come knocking?
Kennan says
Living in the real world is important. The differences this. Kamala Harris wins? There will be blocked. Trester’s won’t have it. The slow manipulation of trump’s repeated drum beat of”The Steal” Will turn voters into chromos. If Trump wins. Dems will be horrified. The demonstrating impossible violence will happen when the”Facist in Chief “ Starts doubling down on things like project 2025, a woman’s rights to the sanctity of her own body are gone, and quite possibly the entire destruction of the Middle East at the beast of Benjamin Netanyahu. An issue that I take very personally.
I’m taking the”George Carlin Stance”.
I know one candidate is infinitely better than the other, but I have no steak in the game. Unless something revelatory happens, I’m sitting this one out. Even though one is better than the other. I refuse to be inebriated with the illusion of choice.
Gaza did it for me.
Laurel says
Kennan: This is not a one topic election, or country. That’s living in the real world.
Kennan says
Remind me to never do talk to text again. Sorry. Kind of a shit show.
FlaglerLive says
Yes, you might want to run your comment through again, too many words appear to have been changed beyond recognition.
Ban hate says
Rcons live in made up fantasy land. Facts and truth no longer matter. When you don’t hold people accountable for trying to overthrow America elections they will do it again. Rump will definitely have at least 20 million less votes but it won’t matter , he will declare victory regardless which is very dangerous and ignorant but hey that’s maga for you. Adolf posthumously supports trump and his cult of corruption. Get your nazi flag out republicans it’s almost time to carry your rifles and nazi flags through downtowns everywhere. Who accepts a convict terrorist as president? Republicans are pro hate and anti diversity so yeah I’d bet on more violence.