By David Hastings Dunn
Donald Trump was not on the ballot for the 2022 US midterms. But the former president’s shadow still falls heavily across American politics and he has done all he can to keep it that way. His attempt to both set the political agenda for 2022 and to endorse his style of candidates appears to have had a profound impact on this year’s ballots and has implications for the next presidential election in 2024.
The former president is reported to be weighing up whether to launch his bid for the 2024 election. He previously said he would announce his decision on Tuesday November 15. But after the poor showing of the slate of candidates he had enthusiastically endorsed ahead of the midterms, many political analysts are speculating that he might now put his ambitions on hold.
Trump is taking a big share of the blame for the failure of the Republican Party to capitalise on the highest inflation figures in 40 years, America’s rising murder rate, and what Republicans’ perceive as Joe Biden’s underperformance as president.
Many commentators are asking whether the failure of the expected GOP “red wave” might also mark a passing of the high watermark for the political fortunes of the 45th president. Or, to put it another way, has America passed “peak Trump”?
Midterm elections are traditionally used to show disapproval of the incumbent president. Given that the Democrats held the House by just five votes and the Senate was evenly split, the Republicans were confident of a crushing victory.
Instead, what transpired was one of the best midterm election results for a sitting Democratic president in decades, with the Democrats holding on to control of the Senate and losing fewer seats in the House of Representatives than expected. This will inevitably give Republicans pause to think. The answer will not be difficult to deduce.
While Trump inspires a cult-like adulation from around 15% of the population, his brand of “America first” nationalism has never commanded majority support. Indeed in the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 midterms and again in the 2020 election, the Democrats consistently won the popular vote – even though that popularity did not always translate into power.
But in the 2022 midterms, Trump’s negative impact on the result was clear. In the run-up to the vote on November 9, Trump endorsed a slate of candidates. These were chosen not on their political experience, but on their loyalty to him and his unfounded claim that the 2020 election was stolen. These candidates underperformed on a national basis, robbing the Republicans of potentially winnable seats in a number of swing states.
This happened in Pennsylvania where out-of-state TV doctor Mehmet Oz lost to the Democrats by 8%, and in Georgia where Hershel Walker also underperformed. The latter case is particularly illuminating. Walker, a former football star, managed just 48% of the vote against longtime incumbent Raphael Warnock and faces a runoff election in December. Meanwhile, the non-Trumpian mainstream Republican governor, Brian Kemp, was reelected by a margin of more than seven points.
What this suggests is a willingness among many voters to reject Trumpian extremism without necessarily abandoning the whole Republican ticket. This pattern was repeated nationally, as Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed compared to mainstream Republicans.
The most extreme election deniers did worst of all. Doug Mastriano – who reportedly spent thousands of dollars chartering buses to ferry people to Washington DC on January 6 2020 when the Capitol riot occurred – was beaten by 14 points in his bid for Pennsylvania governor. Daniel Cox – who promised he would audit the 2020 election if he were elected – was beaten by 24 points in the Maryland gubernatorial race.
Where Trump-endorsed candidates did win – such as JD Vance in Ohio – they did so by distancing themselves from their patron’s more extreme positions. It appears that many swing voters and moderate Republicans actually heeded Joe Biden’s call to reject candidates who posed a threat to the proper working of US democracy.
The DeSantis factor
Another key takeaway from the midterms with implications for the Trump’s future has been the success of his former protege, now rival, Ron DeSantis. His reelection as governor by nearly 20 points in what is now Trump’s home state of Florida was a result that defied the national trend.
Significantly, DeSantis rejected Trump’s election denialism and abortion extremism, running instead on the economy, immigration and crime. He now has a clear power base from which to launch a bid for the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2024 if he so chooses.
While his brand of white Christian nationalism embraces much of the cultural conservativism of the America first movement, DeSantis is careful to avoid its more extreme positions. Importantly, he also lacks his former mentor’s personal baggage and casual bigotry. Of his generation of republicans, DeSantis is the most dynamic and appears well placed to step up to the national level and present his version of populist conservatism in a less alienating and antagonising form than Trump.
Where now for the GOP?
The lessons of the midterms for the GOP are fairly clear to see, even if they are difficult to act upon. Although Trump remains extravagantly popular with his base, the 2022 result shows that even many Republicans would rather vote for alternative candidates than Trump and his soundalikes. And, with the emergence of DeSantis, the GOP has the chance to embrace a candidate with a proven electoral record.
The verdict of the American electorate from these elections is that the moment of “peak Trump” has indeed passed. It only remains for the Republican party to go through the painful process of removing Trump from his grip of the Grand Old Party.
David Hastings Dunn is Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
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Shelly says
America has lost their minds. There goes our Democracy which is really in danger as well as our Country as we knew it. Communism doesn’t happen overnight.
David S. says
Please can all this be resolved and just lock him up for good.
Charles says
The voters have spoken and all Trump’s election deniers lost, and now the GOP is pushing Trump aside, they now consider him the biggest loser.
JimBob says
Not quite! J.D. Vance won in Nortucky (formerly known as Ohio) and many of his nut fringe representatives were re-elected.
Jimbo99 says
The Red wave was a media headline propaganda hype thing. End of the day here, the R’s are closing in on control of the House. That has implications. First it removes Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Then there’s the fact that all Bills/Legislation originates in the House of Representatives, then moves to the Senate for Ratification there, then on to Biden for the rubber stamp or veto. The Senate is still a matter of a VPOTUS Harris vote for true control of what has been the misery of Biden-Harris economics for 2 years now. It took the D’s & the Swamp 4 years to remove Trump. Whether control of the House results in investigations or even impeachment proceedings of Biden for border issues and anything else remains to be seen. Because the House was where impeachment & investigations originated for Trump. Pelosi ousted as Speaker of the House is a good thing for Checks & Balances. As Trump benefited from the Senate control to avoid impeachment, we can most likely expect any impeachment of Biden will be handled similarly by a Democrat controlled Senate. So the D’s had to at least retain the Harris deadlock vote control.
I suspect as close as this is for a closely divided nation, any wave Red or Blue isn’t going to exactly be a rout as a big margin of victory. All one has to see is the Red States for coverage, the Blue states are the usual sanctuaries of people stacked on top of each other for population density. How that much land mass for population can be controlled by Biden is just a travesty. Anyone that has a better quality of life is in a Red zone. Those living in crime infested areas with most of the Biden-Harris problems seem to love their Blue lifestyle, NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami and others that have decriminalized theft & drugs. Life is too short to live in those places. I know, I lived in Miami for 20 years, wouldn’t ever go back there. And from those leaving California, the smarter people re realizing it’s just impossible to make California a better place to raise a family for the largest cities. Too many drug addicts, Dreamers & illegals & criminals voting Blue.
https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/house/
Aj says
I guess the red voters are perfect and angelic. Oh just look at 2020, storming the capitol, denying the results and going to prison. May I remind you they were Republicans, I guess the Democrats are not too bad. The Democrats take the beating, bow out with poise and maturity and move on. Some of the Republicans lie and deny. Jimbo99 it look like the Democrats are so much more mature than the Republicans. Just something for you to think about.
The Geode says
…unless it comes to governing states and the democratic cities that reside in them. Seriously, do you even bother to look around you? Can you see things for what they are instead of thinking that every republican is white so you can base your opinions on race? You worrying about “storming the capital” when your worry should be someone “storming your house while you sleep”. You allow the very white people whom you spew vitriol to hand-pick and gaslight you (and 80%+ of us) whatever story fits their narrative because they KNOW we are not going to verify facts, question the status quo and follow ONE party blindly because they toss us “trinkets”. The only thing missing is the “organ grinder”…
B section says
Democratic cities are pretty much all cities in America. And the reason is because anyone with a brain realizes the Republican party is a terrorist organization with a propaganda arm.
Aj says
Who are you speaking about? I said nothing about white in my comments. You sound like a crazy person. Don’t tell me what I should be worrying about. I’m a full grown person and worry about what I want to worry about. The nerve of you, I think you are a little mentally off. Please don’t put words in my comments. Read my comment again and find white Republican. You need some serious mental help. Look around yourself and find a mental dr.
JimBob says
You talk about “decriminalized theft” in a state where Rick Scott is a U.S. Senator unaware of just how ironic your statement is!
B section says
Uh, yea Blue Areas have higher standard of living, wages, benefits, and worker democracy. You have no idea what you are talking about. Red states are economic parasites that take more than they give. States like California, New York and Illinois pay more into the federal government than they receive. Facts don’t care about your feelings.
Michael Cocchiola says
I’m not cheering. I am still grim. It took an almost miraculous mid-term rally – not seen since 1934 – to avert the most serious threat to our country since the Civil War. “Woke” American voters rejected Trump and an autocratic theocracy and preserved our democracy for another two years.
With the country still split culturally and politically, it looks to me like we will have this existential battle again in 2024 and beyond until we bury the man who would-be king and his extremist MAGA-First cult with him. Until then, the MAGA crazies and whatever warrior-king they might follow – Trump, DeSantis, et al – will pose a threat to our democratic government.
Bob Yokum says
Florida is not divided. We chose to re-elect Ron Desantis by an overwhelming margin not seen in decades. Desantis is not the Trump cultist you think he is. He stands on his own. He has taken what Trump started and refined it into a package more palatable to the majority. Those that still have a sense of common morality, at least. As the article states, he is without the baggage and casual bigotry of Trump, aka the Democrats worst nightmare if they hope to retain the white house in 2024. Trump running again would actually be a gift to Democrats. I think regardless Ron Desantis will finally dispatch Trump once and for all in the primaries. He has shown he has the wide appeal that can win in the general.
The dude says
“He has taken what Trump started and refined it into a package more palatable to the majority.”
Calling a shit sandwich “sandwich à la merde” doesn’t make anything “more palatable”.
Hate is hate, white supremacy is white supremacy, racism is racism, no matter what you call them.
Laurel says
Bob Yokum: Florida is divided. You have ignored the fact that there are Democrats in this state. DeSantis does not have the “wide appeal” you imagine simply because he won the race. He favors the white “Christian” nationalists who want to narrow down the rights of the rest of us. He wants to govern our personal behaviors, health and rights, and call it “freedom.” Republicans used to say that government should stay out of people’s bedrooms. No more.
You also seem to forget that DeSantis did not stand alone while running for governor the first time, he stood behind the person who disparaged women and mocked a man with palsy. Right then and there, I made up my mind that he did not, in any way, represent me. DeSantis did not stand against Trump when Trump disparaged McCain, who was a real war hero, which Trump would never be. DeSantis did not stand up when Trump ruined the careers of good people simply because they did not blindly follow him. DeSantis did not stand up when the insurrectionists crapped on the Capital floor. DeSantis did not stand up when Trump stood up for the Oath Keepers, the Neo Nazis and David Duke’s Klan.
There has been a lot of misinformation and gerrymandering. I could go on and on, but it’s useless for some. I, as a NPA, do not find DeSantis palatable at all. It’s still a cult, with new leadership.
Bob Yokum says
Ron Desantis won almost 60 percent of the popular vote in Florida. That’s a blowout, it wasn’t even close. He managed to flip Miami-Dade and Palm Beach county which are/were overwhelmingly blue. You will see this man as president, mark my words. He’s doing what Trump never could. You can try to tie him to Trump if you think it’ll help your cause, but he is not Trump. As things go along I think people will see that. Democrats desperately need Trump to run again, or be able to tie the opposition to Trump in order to win, they have NOTHING else to run on.
B section says
Desantis won because the Democratic Party in Florida decided to run a republican candidate for governor. If they had any decent apparatus and campaigning it wouldn’t happen. But the Florida Democratic party doesn’t know how to win. Probably because they are bought by the same crooks as the Republicans.
JimBob says
Was it “common morality” for DeSantis to orchestrate tricking destitute refugees into flights to Massachusetts to score political points? Is that your personal moral standard?
Don't Cull Me says
I know this has been addressed before but what exactly is “Woke”? If it means acting like a good human being, being kind and accepting of those who are different than ourselves, following the Golden Rule, thinking before opening our mouths to speak and not trying to force our opinions and ideas on those around us – Then I am proudly WOKE!!!
Sand T. Claws says
You definition of “WOKE” is completely wrong. Hopefully Gov DeSantis can rid Florida of ALL WOKE LOSERS
Pierre Tristam says
Are you hoping he brings in 67 guillotines, Santa?
Steve says
S P A M Nice try though. Ohio is a good place for you, CYA
Laurel says
Don’t Cull Me:
woker; wokest
chiefly US slang
Aware of and actively attentive to important societal facts and issues (especially issues of racial and social justice)
Merriam Webster Dictionary.
Woke means, basically, I woke up. DeSantis does not want us to be awake.
Aj says
I believe nothing will get done D.C. A democratic Senate, a Republican House spells wasted tax dollars and nothing but fighting for the next two years. The America we live in, lying politicians and non educated voters. What a shame, grown people don’t know how to lead.
Samuel says
Honorable Merrick Garland are you there, we are waiting, it is time you charge Trump with at least one of the many crimes he has committed against the USA. Remember what you said NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW.
Paul says
Just because the Orange Fart thinks by running for President will shield him from being charged by the DOJ he is so so wrong. He can be charged either way. His million dollar lawyers need to tell him the truth.
Jack Howell says
After the red trickle, I would hope that the influence of Trump on the Republican party is waning despite his possible announcement that he will seek another term for President. There is no denying that his lies, deceit, and bullying have radicalized many voters, and bullshit One group, in particular, enriches Trump’s bullshit. They are the charlatans called televangelists. Unfortunately, they can fire up their followers with all their hype, misinformation, and downright falsehoods. Check the following:
Jackson1955 says
Trump is a toxic influence on America. People who perpetuated his election lies to receive his endorsement deserved to lose. It’s a shame that any of them won in the primaries, let alone the general elections. It’s been two years now. The Republicans should’ve openly accepted that Trump lost a legitimate election and moved on without him. IMO, many key figures who conspired to deceive the public belong in jail.
David S. says
All of those stupid ignorant voters out there with MEGA stamped on their foreheads need to be shoveling horse manure down at Trumpees compound you all have got to go. Cruz, Scott, DeathSantis, Green, Johnson, Rubio etc pack your shit because you will not last another 4 years from now….
jeffery c. seib says
I wouldn’t count on it being the end of the proverbial road for Trump. There is a big, nasty, group of people out there, pseudo-Americans who can’t wait for him to start in, as he has already to a lesser degree with DeSantis, mocking, belittling, cursing, and all together behaving like the blowhard buffoon he is. They sit in their homes and whine and gripe about everything, so he is the perfect leader of the pack for them. We can only hope that they are not paying too much attention to anything so we can say goodbye to this abomination.