By Donald Heflin
After the largest buildup of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades, American and Israeli military forces launched a massive assault on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.
President Donald Trump has called the attacks “major combat operations” and has urged regime change in Tehran. Iranian media reported Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes.
To better understand what this means for the U.S. and Iran, Alfonso Serrano, a U.S. politics editor at The Conversation, interviewed Donald Heflin, a veteran diplomat who now teaches at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.
Widespread attacks have been reported across Iran, following weeks of U.S. military buildup in the region. What does the scale of the attacks tell you?
I think that Trump and his administration are going for regime change with these massive strikes and with all the ships and some troops in the area. I think there will probably be a couple more days’ worth of strikes. They’ll start off with the time-honored strategy of attacking what’s known as command and control, the nerve centers for controlling Iran’s military. From media reporting, we already know that the residence of Khamenei was attacked.
What is the U.S. strategic end game here?
Regime change is going to be difficult. We heard Trump today call for the Iranian people to bring the government down. In the first place, that’s difficult. It’s hard for people with no arms in their hands to bring down a very tightly controlled regime that has a lot of arms.
The second point is that U.S. history in that area of the world is not good with this. You may recall that during the Gulf War of 1990-1991, the U.S. basically encouraged the Iraqi people to rise up, and then made its own decision not to attack Baghdad, to stop short. And that has not been forgotten in Iraq or surrounding countries. I would be surprised if we saw a popular uprising in Iran that really had a chance of bringing the regime down.
AP Photo/Vahid Salemi
Do you see the possibility of U.S. troops on the ground to bring about regime change?
I will stick my neck out here and say that’s not going to happen. I mean, there may be some small special forces sent in. That’ll be kept quiet for a while. But as far as large numbers of U.S. troops, no, I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Two reasons. First off, any president would feel that was extremely risky. Iran’s a big country with a big military. The risks you would be taking are large amounts of casualties, and you may not succeed in what you’re trying to do.
But Trump, in particular, despite the military strike against Iran and the one against Venezuela, is not a big fan of big military interventions and war. He’s a guy who will send in fighter planes and small special forces units, but not 10,000 or 20,000 troops.
And the reason for that is, throughout his career, he does well with a little bit of chaos. He doesn’t mind creating a little bit of chaos and figuring out a way to make a profit on the other side of that. War is too much chaos. It’s really hard to predict what the outcome is going to be, what all the ramifications are going to be. Throughout his first term and the first year of his second term, he has shown no inclination to send ground troops anywhere.
Speaking of President Trump, what are the risks he faces?
One risk is going on right now, which is that the Iranians may get lucky or smart and manage to attack a really good target and kill a lot of people, like something in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or a U.S. military base.
The second risk is that the attacks don’t work, that the supreme leader and whoever else is considered the political leadership of Iran survives, and the U.S. winds up with egg on its face.
The third risk is that it works to a certain extent. You take out the top people, but then who steps into their shoes? I mean, go back and look at Venezuela. Most people would have thought that who was going to wind up winning at the end of that was the head of the opposition. But it wound up being the vice president of the old regime, Delcy Rodríguez.
I can see a similar scenario in Iran. The regime has enough depth to survive the death of several of its leaders. The thing to watch will be who winds up in the top jobs, hardliners or realists. But the only institution in Iran strong enough to succeed them is the army, the Revolutionary Guards in particular. Would that be an improvement for the U.S.? It depends on what their attitude was. The same attitude that the vice president of Venezuela has been taking, which is, “Look, this is a fact of life. We better negotiate with the Americans and figure out some way forward we can both live with.”
But these guys are pretty hardcore revolutionaries. I mean, Iran has been under revolutionary leadership for 47 years. All these guys are true believers. I don’t know if we’ll be able to work with them.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images
Any last thoughts?
I think the timing is interesting. If you go back to last year, Trump, after being in office a little and watching the situation between Israel and Gaza, was given an opening, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Qatar.
A lot of conservative Mideast regimes, who didn’t have a huge problem with Israel, essentially said “That’s going too far.” And Trump was able to use that as an excuse. He was able to essentially say, “Okay, you’ve gone too far. You’re really taking risk with world peace. Everybody’s gonna sit at the table.”
I think the same thing’s happening here. I believe many countries would love to see regime change in Iran. But you can’t go into the country and say, “We don’t like the political leadership being elected. We’re going to get rid of them for you.” What often happens in that situation is people begin to rally around the flag. They begin to rally around the government when the bombs start falling.
But in the last few months, we’ve seen a huge human rights crackdown in Iran. We may never know the number of people the Iranian regime killed in the last few months, but 10,000 to 15,000 protesters seems a minimum.
That’s the excuse Trump can use. You can sell it to the Iranian people and say, “Look, they’re killing you in the streets. Forget about your problems with Israel and the U.S. and everything. They’re real, but you’re getting killed in the streets, and that’s why we’re intervening.” It’s a bit of a fig leaf.
Now, as I said earlier, the problem with this is if your next line is, “You know, we’re going to really soften this regime up with bombs; now it’s your time to go out in the streets and bring the regime down.” I may eat these words, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. The regime is just too strong for it to be brought down by bare hands.
Donald Heflin is Executive Director of the Edward R. Murrow Center and Senior Fellow of Diplomatic Practice at The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Deirdre says
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and the UAE have issued a joint declaration, asserting their rights to respond to any aggression from Iran.
Didn’t Trump make a lot of money from all of those countries personally?
Didn’t they shower him with gifts and buy his cryptocurrency?
I wonder if that had anything to do with Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. They all knew Iran would bomb them if Trump started things, great excuse, could it be that was the point?
Always about the money… seems they bought him along with Israel, it’s not like he cares about the people in Iran or anywhere else.
He certainly doesn’t care about the people of America! We’re just his piggy bank.
Also, BTW, release the Epstein files! Don’t stand in the way of midterm elections! Do you think that these little distractions like starting WWIII could also be a factor?
Pogo says
@Please, wait for an usher to assist you
Act I: The Storm
Act II: Return of the Shah
Act III: The Shah agrees to be acquired by the Trump Group
The End of Fat Ali, by Bigly Small
Harry Mudd Publishing, an imprint of Mar-a-Lardo Press
ISBN BR549
Coming in 2028: Fart Wars — Trump Pulls His Own Finger
Extra credit for AP trolls, and other bougie toffs
https://www.bing.com/search?q=gilgamesh
Sherry says
LOL! Dear Pogo. . . thanks for the belly laugh! I really, really needed that! The “Fart Wars” line is priceless!
Jim says
I hope Donald Heflin is wrong about how this ends. Unfortunately, I think he’s most likely correct. We’re going to bomb Iran and most likely destroy most of their missile capability. We’ll kill a lot of their leadership. They will be severely degraded when it’s over. What will not happen is that the Revolutionary Guard and other military units will be destroyed or degraded. There will be thousands of them left with plenty of small arms and tanks, etc. to put down any attempted revolt by the people. And the people may not have any appetite for additional bloodshed after the recent attempt where so many died. Not to mention they won’t have any faith in the USA coming to their assistance. If they have doubt, just look at Venezuela.
So, in the end, Iran will be severely damaged and it’s leadership will hate us even more than they do. They’ll still be in charge. And, I expect, they will either begin planning or carry out something already planned that will be a major attack on US assets or the homeland.
The worst thing about this is that whatever this administration says was accomplished can not believed. Trump said we “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear capability in July 2024. Now, one of the “reasons” given for these actions is than Iran was “one week from having a nuclear bomb”. Which is true? We’ll never know.
And I hope everyone is taking note of the number of allies we once had who are sitting this one out. Our ally in this is Israel alone. Pay attention to that. It’s a sign of what’s coming in our future.
Al says
Nice article as it points out 2 very good facts.
1) as Americans nothing is impossible, it may be hard and take time but impossible no.
2) this why we own guns in this country. The author referenced lack of arms and bare hands as a factor. This is why the left wants to remove guns from American homes. Also remember that thru history unarmed peasants have brought down some of the mightiest rulers.
Skibum says
Pure revisionist history, as if Al has inhaled a few too many tokes from his ganga while hugging his lovely assault rifle that he cherishes more than life itself.
The ONLY foreign military force that ever sent a mass invasion onto the shores of America were the Brits, and was the reason why our forefathers thought it necessary to make sure the U.S. Constitution included language so that Americans had the right to possess muskets to protect themselves in the event that the Brits came ashore a second time. Newsflash!!! Those pesky Brits have given up trying to keep our nation under their king’s control.
But go ahead and fantasize some more about your preferred version of American history. Maybe next about all those African negros who threw down all that they owned, to run en masse to ships travelling across the Atlantic just to have the opportunity to better themselves in “the new land” where they could learn new skills, gratitude emanating from their pores toward their new southern owners. How about that one?
ED says
You liberal hacks never cease to thrill and amaze with your prose.
.PaulT says
Trump doesn’t have a plan. In fact he doesn’t have a clue about what should follow the madness of his war.
He bumbles about IRGC ‘soldiers’ handing their weapons to the ‘citizens’ they and their militia allies have been terrorizing and killing.
Then he switches to citing post Maduro-grab Venezuela as the perfect solution for governing Iran, use the existing, headless, government to run the country under Trump’s direction.
Meanwhile Hegseth is calling on God to help the US military demolish a country run by clerics who are no doubt calling on God to protect Iran.
Is it the same God? Or are we back to the days of multiple Gods pitted against each other, jostling for power without thought of the consequences.
Ray W. says
This from Reuters:
Kuwait shot down three American military jets; all crew were recovered.
Iran struck a British air base on Cyprus with missiles.
Iran struck multiple U.S. bases in multiple Arab nations with missiles and drones.
Iran struck Israel with missiles and drones.
Hezbollah struck Israel with missiles.
Israel struck Lebanon with missiles in retaliation.
Israel has listed Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassan, a “target for elimination.”
Three crude oil tankers have been struck; several hundred more, per tracking data, have dropped anchor.
Commercial aviation into and out of the region has ceased.
After a drone strike, Saudi officials shut down the country’s largest refinery.
Qatar has ceased natural gas liquefaction production for export.
President Trump has repeatedly called upon the Iranian people to rise up and seize power from Iran’s clerics.
Per the reporter, a 52-year-old teacher calling from Tabriz said: “They are killing children. They are attacking hospitals. Is this the type of democracy Trump wants to bring us? Innocents were first killed by the regime and now by Israel and the United States.”
A U.S. government spokesperson says the time may come when talks with Iranian leaders will begin, but the military operation is not yet over.
Iranian leaders say they do not intend to talk. One Iranian leader called to tell the reporter that Iran was defending itself against aggressors and would continue to do so.
European leaders, per the reporter, say that Trump’s initial decision to go to war “fell short of the legal threshold of responding to an imminent threat”, but now that it has come to pass, Europe will help to restrict Iran’s capacity to retaliate.
Make of this what you will.
Me?
Who knows the potential spread or containment of violence under the name of “epic fury”? Who knows the time boundaries? I don’t. All I know is that retribution, that vengeance, seldom works, that retaliation begets retaliation, that every innocent killed risks converting others to fanaticism. What can man do against such reckless hate?
The dude says
How many years and trillions did we waste in Iraq and Afghanistan when we tried regime change there? Libya? Syria?
What has been the net result? How many regimes have actually “changed” and continue to be “changed” after we left?
Keenan Hreib says
When poll #s are down, it is time to bomb countries that are Black and Brown.
It’s difficult to know where to start. It is also very difficult to wrap ones head around a Middle East policy soley run by Israel.
There have been very few guardrails in the last 50 years, but in the last year there are decidedly none.
Iran attacked no one. Iran with the help of Oman was in negotiations with the U.S. President Donald Trump would have you believe that Iran walked away from negotiations. Negotiations that would be unnecessary given the fact that Iran was bombed by Israel and the U.S. in June, and by their accounts the nuclear bases were destroyed. If destroyed why the attack now? WHY? Regime change in the behest of the most violent regime in the Middle East… ISRAEL. Regime change that has been vehemently pushed for decades by Israel in hopes of a “GREATER ISRAEL” expantionism in the Middle East.
Iran and it’s “So called nuclear program” has been used as a smokescreen to do the bidding of Israel’s expansionist hopes.
FACTS raeMATTER:
Henry Kissenger said a couple of very telling things:
“America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
” It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
We have bombed Iran for two reasons: Oil and Israel. Greed and tenuous Bible passages that have no bearing on the modern world.
This is very important so listen carefully. There has been the bloodiest, brazen Genocide administered in Gaza for the past two and a half years. An “open air Holocaust on a territory you already own and occupy. Close to 200,000 people surely are dead above and below ground in Gaza. As the killing continues to this moment as tens of thousands of men, women,and mostly children are targeted. Lest we forget a “FAKE” ceasefire since October 2025 has been broken more than 1,000 times. This is ongoing.
now we find ourselves attacking Iran at the behest of Israel, while Iran was ready to negotiate. Israel under no circumstances wants that. They want the Middle East. Period. They are willing to put a target on America’s back, and our administration is willing to tear off it’s own nose to spite our own country.
Let me make this perfectly clear. The United States of America and especially Israel are the single biggest threat to the safety and stability of not just the Middle East, but the world at large.
We have spent the better part of 80 years demonizing the Middle East, while kicking 1 million Palestinians of their land in the first”NAKBA”.
Israel laughs in the worlds face while they call it the “BIRTH OF ISRAEL”. 19 years later the 1967 occupation of the Gaza strip begins. The subjugation of people in their own land as the U.S. floods money into a country that with our help has become the strongest military bully in the Middle East.
This is not in America’s interest at all. It creates and has created the perfect conditions for terrorist groups to birth themselves out of the racist, abusive subjugation raining down on Arabs from a state that was subject to a Holocaust of their own in World War II.
Senseless. Given a state in 48? How it was done was the problem, as well as the fact that Israel is never satisfied. Israel has consistently wanted more and more and more.
Now we arrive here at Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu has wantrd this since 1996. A doctrine called “CLEAN BREAK” by Benjamin Netanyahu. A mad mans document which was and is a blueprint for non stop war. The man is a psychopath. This is and always will be about Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. This aligns with the hegemony that his American counterparts want in the world.
The machiavellianism we see in Donald Trump works seamlessly for Netanyahu. This has been a long standing effort for the CIA as well. We have gone to war in LIBYA, SUDAN,IRAQ,YEMEN, and IRAN for this extremist delusional Israeli leader.
What have we gotten out of it? Millions dead. Trillions of dollars of loss and chaos from Libya to Iran because of this insane ZIONISM.
To say Trump is a liar is a little bit funny, because America knows that everything that comes out of this mans mouth is a lie.
Trump is a puppet of the CIA, Miriam Adelson, and Benjamin Netanyahu.
500 civilians were killed just today in Iran. A girls school was bombed a couple of days ago killing 85. Now a regional war across the Middle East is blooming as we speak.
Impossible to formulate into words. TRUMP HAS MADE OUR COUNTRY A DIVIDED DUMPSTER FIRE, AND NOW WE SEEM HELL BENT ON ONCE AGAIN SPREADING THE WEALTH TO THE REST OF THE WORLD.
Skibum says
Well said!
Sherry says
Thank You Keenan! Excellent comment!