By Robert A. Pape
A recent Washington demonstration supporting those charged with crimes for the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol fizzled, with no more than 200 demonstrators showing up. The organizers had promised 700 people would turn out – or more.
But the threat from far-right insurrectionists is not over.
For months, my colleagues and I at the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats have been tracking insurrectionist sentiments in U.S. adults, most recently in surveys in June. We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”
Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.
Only a small percentage of people who hold extremist views ever actually commit acts of violence, but our findings reveal how many Americans hold views that could turn them toward insurrection.
A solid survey
In June 2021, our group commissioned a survey done by the independent, non-partisan researchers at NORC at the University of Chicago, seeking to discover how widespread insurrectionist sentiments are among U.S. adults.
The research methods meet the highest standards in the polling industry – a random sample of a representative sample. It’s the same process NORC uses to conduct polling for The Associated Press, the federal government and other major institutions.
First, NORC pulls together a panel of 40,000 people, called AmeriSpeak, who are representative of the entire U.S. population on dozens of characteristics, such as age, race, income, location of residence and religion. From that representative sample, NORC drew a random sample – in our case, 1,070 people.
Extreme beliefs
This polling found that 9% of American adults say they agree with the statement that “Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.” And 25% of adults either strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that “The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.”
Overall, 8% of the survey participants share both of those views.
The margin of error of this survey was plus or minus 4 percentage points. So when calculating the number of the 258 million adult Americans who hold these views, we looked at the range of between 4% and 12% – which gave us between 10 million and 31 million. The best single figure is the middle of that range, 21 million.
People who said force is justified to restore Trump were consistent in their insurrectionist sentiments: Of them, 90% also see Biden as illegitimate, and 68% also think force may be needed to preserve America’s traditional way of life.
The fringe moving into the mainstream
Combined with their military experience, gun ownership and connections to extremist groups and militias, this signals the existence of significant mainstream support in America for a violent insurrection.
This group of 21 million who agree both that force is justified to restore Trump and that Biden is an illegitimate president has two additional views that are also on the fringes of mainstream society:
- 63% agree with the statement that “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites” – a belief sometimes called “the Great Replacement.”
- 54% agree that “A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is ruling the US government,” which is the key belief in the QAnon movement.
Some people with insurrectionist sentiments hold one of these political views but not the other, suggesting there are multiple ways of thinking that lead a person toward the insurrectionist movement.
Broader support
This latest research reinforces our previous findings, that the Jan. 6 insurrection represents a far more mainstream movement than earlier instances of right-wing extremism across the country. Those events, mostly limited to white supremacist and militia groups, saw more than 100 individuals arrested from 2015 to 2020. But just 14% of those arrested for their actions on Jan. 6 are members of those groups. More than half are business owners or middle-aged white-collar professionals, and only 7% are unemployed.
There is no way to say for sure when – or even whether – these insurrectionists will take action. On Jan. 6, it took clear direction from Donald Trump and other political leaders to turn these dangerous sentiments into a violent reality. But the movement itself is larger and more complex than many people might like to think.
Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Crispus says
Want to know what I believe ? I believe this Great Nation will repeat its history. You can take that anyway you want .
Anonymous says
We need a real leader who isn’t afraid to answer questions and who supports the people of the United States, not a puppet. Trump 2024!!
bob says
sure appears this flori-duh intellectual was not class valedictorian
Makeitso1701 says
HAHAHAHA, I laughed so hard I almost peed in my pants when I read your post. The orange man will be in prison by then. He was THE WORST PRESIDENT EVER.
God Bless Biden!!!
Jimbo99 says
Still clinging to that Jan 6th Insurrection are they ? Granted that day was disturbing, but is anyone more concerned that Maxine Waters is trying to stir the pot, stoke the fires of Racism for the border crisis by comparing images & videos of border agents on horseback with past centuries of slavery, since it’s Haitians that are the new threat to illegally immigrate to the USA ?
History on Haitian Earthquakes needs to be revisited ? That was Clinton-Bush that failed in Haiti. I’m more surprised we aren’t seeing the Big 3 (Clinton-Bush-Obama) with another Relief non-profit scamming this Haitian Earthquake nearly a decade later ?
Where is BLM on this ? Summer 2020 was the insurrection of protest, rioting & looting. And I would think anyone would be more concerned about a repeat of that in 2021 than they would what happened on Jan 6, 2021 ?
marlee says
Oh really?
21 years ago a Candidate had integrity and conceded despite questionable results.
Remember????
December 1, 2000/Pew Research Center
Not surprisingly views on what might happen and what should happen are colored by partisanship — Republicans, almost to a person, think Bush will be president and Gore should concede.
It should be noted that even though many think that either candidate will have won the vote because of the way it was counted, most Americans still will accept either candidate as a “legitimate” president, according to other national polling conducted this week
TheTruth says
Truly pathetic that people would rather have a con man as their President who worships dictators and is only out for himself and taking money their money any way he can. Sad that they are naive he doesn’t give a damn about them at all. They need to ask themselves how has Trump improved my life and if they are honest with themselves the answer in nothing.
ME says
Also sad that they believe everything they read on social media. It fits the criteria of a cult. I hope they put him in cuffs!
DaleL says
Many times people, especially those with extreme views, answer surveys in the context of a worldview which they wish were true. Many, if not most, of those people surveyed who claim to believe that the election was stolen, are being dishonest. Still, that leaves millions who believe Trump’s big lie.
Any person who openly attacks the integrity of our elections, must be required to provide some sort of credible evidence. Simply put, if Mr. Trump continues his blatant lies, he should be subject to criminal and/or civil penalties. He is undermining our very democracy.
jake says
Stacy Abrams claims the election for Georgia Governor was stolen and that she won. Hopefully you feel the same way about her being “subject to criminal and /or civil penalties”. After all, isn’t she also “undermining our very democracy”.
FlaglerLive says
The commenter is being misleading. Here’s a fact-check.
jake says
“Pundits and hyperpartisans will hear my words as a rejection of the normal order. You see, I’m supposed to say nice things and accept my fate. They will complain that I should not use this moment to recap what was done wrong or to demand a remedy. You see, as a leader I should be stoic in my outrage and silent in my rebuke,” Abrams said. “But stoicism is a luxury and silence is a weapon for those who would quiet the voices of the people. And I will not concede because the erosion of our democracy is not right.”
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/16/668753230/democrat-stacey-abrams-ends-bid-for-georgia-governor-decrying-suppression
Pierre Tristam says
As always, the commenter cherry-picks. The first few paragraphs of the very article he cites are as follows:
Then came the other quote. Nothing she said is incorrect. To use her words in any way equivalent to those of Trump’s cynical, malicious lies reflects primarily on the dishonesty of the commenter.
DaleL says
Stacy Abrams conceded the election back in 2018: “I acknowledge that former Secretary of State Brian Kemp will be certified as the victor in the 2018 gubernatorial election,…” Abrams said.
Donald Trump has not conceded the 2020 election. Trump continues to claim, without evidence, that the election was stolen from him.
That’s quite a difference between Abrams and Trump.
Mike Cocchiola says
I’ve said it before and still stand behind my fear that we’re already into Civil War II. It’s still being fought in the media and the blogosphere. But the risk of a more violent attempt to overthrow this legitimately elected administration and with it American democracy is out there now and growing by the day. We are facing tyranny by the armed and unhinged minority.
There are more good citizens who support a democratic America than those who would throw it all away for an autocratic theocracy. We have to stand strongly and courageously for democracy. Keep speaking out and voting.
Deborah Coffey says
I completely agree. And, I certainly think 100% of us had better vote. But Trump, and his minions in a multitude of states, are putting all the pieces in place for a coup in the next election…and I mean ALL THE PIECES. If Democrats don’t take this threat dead seriously and, if the Attorney General of the United States doesn’t act, there will be a Fascist regime in power in 2024. All of the people that still love Trump will then become slaves of the cult leader they trusted. There will be terrible violence and killing at that time, unless it happens sooner if the Supreme Court throws out Roe v. Wade. Since we are already in a slow-moving war, THAT could be the spark that sets the war on fire. Women will unite because “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” The Republican Party has torn this great nation apart on their road to Fascism.
does it matter says
Mike these people are too comfortable to push themselves away from the kitchen table to fight in this quote war.
If they were so gun ho why didn’t they join the military,the police force etc because it’s work they aren’t cut out to do and fortitude they don’t have.
There’s supposed to be a race war,civil war etc.
Most of them don’t have the discipline to wear a mask and protect themselves. So you know they don’t have the discipline or smarts to fight a war, especially when they realize people will shoot back lol
Shark says
47 million fox entertainment brainwashed morons !!!!
Geezer says
Shades of 1930’s Germany…
Random says
We’re currently living in the Weimar Republic.
Skibum says
It is hard to wrap my head around the fact that this country has so many gullible people who believe discredited infotainment hacks who even admit on the record to lying to their minions in order to up the TV ratings. And even after the late breaking news story from Arizona that the Cyber Ninjas draft report on their sham “audit” grift at least has reaffirmed that Biden did in fact win in Maricopa County, as all other prior legitimate county and state election audits already confirmed months ago. The biggest surprise though, was the Ninjas vote total giving Biden an even BIGGER vote margin over the orange guy than previous totals had recorded. So much for The Big Lie that so many GOP conspiracy theorists still cling to. I’ll be waiting to hear the inevitable lame excuses why the orange guy’s minions will continue to swear that the election was stolen and was a sham. I don’t expect that the gullible GOP sheep who will NEVER accept the truth about the 2020 presidential election will ever change. But that’s ok… those same gullible fools don’t believe in medical science or the life saving abilities of vaccines, and they are dropping like flies after becoming infected by the “hoax” virus, so Darwin’s theory of evolution and the demise of idiots will in the end, hopefully, take care of this nonsense.
ME says
Thank you. Someone who actually knows about the Fox court case. It’s infuriating that they are allowed to call it news. Grrr!
Samuel says
The Orange man continues to make a complete fool of himself and he continues to drum up trouble ever time he opens his mouth.
He wants to be a dictator in the USA and destroy our democracy along with our constitution for his own personal greedy gain.
It is time he his held accountable for trying to destroy a country that has its problem but since he came into politics it has been nothing but trouble. He spreads hates, he is prejudice and only cares about himself. He wants to be president again so he can hide behind the White House to claim presidential powers and can’t be touched.
I commend Congress preparing to make whoever is the next President they cannot hold the American people hostage and under their greedy control.
Let’s not forget what he and his side kicks organized on January 6th and even didn’t care if his own VP was murdered just so he could hold power. Now he is throwing Lindsey Graham under the bus. He will do that to anyone that doesn’t kiss his ring.
Stop feeding into his madness, he doesn’t know your name or gives a damn about you
David Schaefer says
Thank you Samuel you are 100% right. Now he is suing his niece for her latest book on his screwed up life.
Rodney says
Me being a democrat, I do believe Biden was not legally elected. Not a trump fan, but he was 10 times better than obiden. If he keeps up with his course our country will be so upside down im afraid we will have no country left. Biden was a carreer corrupt politician that has not made one good decision in his political career!
does it matter says
And Trump is a corrupt person and former 1 term president. Both of them are lacking badly.
Who is next?
Sherry says
@ Rodney. . . please post “credible facts” to give your comment any legitimacy at all.
@MikeD.C. says
Pierre…reminde everyone that “But stoicism is a luxury and silence is a weapon for those who would quiet the voices of the people. And I will not concede because the erosion of our democracy is not right” can be used as a shield or a sword by either side?
It seems that neither side of the isle wants to recognize that tens of millions of voters disagree with their ideology on governing. (“NO NEW TAXES!!” vs “$3 more Billion!”). Rather each side seems to suggest the other’s opions and support for such dogma is fake, misleading or crazy. Instead, let us take the first step and agree to disagree, find a middle ground and stop with the fight to the death at no cost. Remeber…Tens of Millions of people disagree with your opinion. Maybe they have something worthwhile to say. Listen.