By Asher Kaufman
Lebanon, which is teetering on the edge of economic and political collapse, risks becoming entangled in the escalating war between Israel and Hamas.
Hezbollah has been gearing up for the possibility of joining the fight ever since Hamas’ surprise assault on Oct. 7, 2023, killed nearly 1,400 people, leading to Israel’s declaration of war a day later. The Shiite militant group has launched multiple attacks on Israeli targets from Lebanon, prompting return fire from the Israel Defense Forces. Over a dozen people have died, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also at least a few civilians on both sides of the border, including a Reuters photojournalist.
As a historian, I have focused my research and teaching on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation involving Israelis, Lebanese and Palestinians. If a war between Hezbollah and Israel does erupt, the already significant violence and destruction in southern Israel and Gaza will likely be greatly compounded by further massive loss of life in Lebanon, Israel and perhaps in other parts of the Middle East.
Hezbollah’s decision whether to fully join the war may answer a question that has been preoccupying analysts of the organization for decades: Is its priority the well-being of Lebanon or acting as a proxy for Iran?
A decades-old conflict
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been spilling into Lebanon since 1948, with the establishment of Israel and displacement of Palestinians, or what the latter call the Nakba, or catastrophe.
In fact, no Arab country has been more affected by this conflict. About 110,000 Palestinians took refuge in Lebanon in 1948. Today, the number is about 210,000, and they are denied basic rights.
In surveys, many Lebanese have said they resent the Palestinian refugees in the country and blame them for the eruption of the Lebanese civil war, which took place from 1975 to 1990. An estimated 120,000 died during the fighting, the scars of which can still be seen in the capital of Beirut.
Israel was deeply embroiled in the Lebanese civil war. It supported Christian militias and pursued its own fight against Palestinian militias, who used Lebanon as a base to launch attacks against the Jewish state. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in order to wipe out the Palestine Liberation Organization and establish a pro-Israeli Christian government in Beirut. Neither objective was achieved.
Hezbollah becomes Lebanon’s strongest force
Since its foundation in 1920, Lebanon and its politics have been dominated by a sectarian system in which government and state positions are divided among the 18 officially recognized religious sects, most notably Sunnis, Maronite Christians, Druze and Shiites. Each sect has mandated representation in government.
Today, the Shiite population is the largest sect in the country, making up 30% to 40% of the general population – but no exact figure is available because the sensitivity of the matter has meant no official census has been conducted since 1932.
For decades, Lebanon’s sectarian system has resulted in what scholars call “hybrid sovereignty.” Political elites who represent their sects in the sectarian system are both part of the state apparatus and also operate outside of it by providing their constituents services that are normally the responsibility of government, from providing marriage licenses to armed protection.
Hezbollah formed in 1982 with Iranian and Syrian support to fight Israel after its invasion. It is by far the country’s strongest political, socioeconomic and military force. This is due to the support of Iran and a strong and cohesive internal social structure among its Shiite followers in the country. Not all Shiites identify with Hezbollah, but no doubt many of them sympathize with its causes.
Hezbollah also operates within the hybrid structure of the sectarian system by playing an integral part in the government but also by functioning as a state unto itself. For example, it boasts its own military force, which is far stronger than the formal Lebanese army, and provides social, educational and economic services to Shiites.
In fact, no group has benefited more from this sectarian hybrid system than Hezbollah.
AP Photo/Hassan Ammar
Lebanon in free fall
Despite the fractured political system and weak state, Lebanon has managed to retain some stability and vitality, even under the duress of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.
Things took a severe turn in October 2019, when years of Ponzi-like financial mismanagement, excessive borrowing and a sharp decline in remittances from abroad led the Lebanese economy to melt down. The World Bank has described it as one of the worst economic crises since the mid-19th century.
The crisis sparked large-scale protests across the country, known as the “October 17 revolution,” in which the Lebanese demanded social and economic justice, an end to corruption and the dismantling of the sectarian political system. As a result, foreign donors were alarmed, foreign currency flowed out of the country, banks shut their doors to depositors, the government defaulted on its debt and the local currency collapsed.
A massive blast at the Beirut port in August 2020, which killed 225 people and caused billions of dollars in damage, further exacerbated the socioeconomic and political conditions in the country. And since October 2022, the Lebanese political system has been in complete gridlock, given the inability of the political class to agree on a new president and a new government.
Hezbollah has been the least affected by the national crisis among political forces in the country and has emerged as a staunch defender of the political system that nurtured it.
Some already see Lebanon as a failed state, so the last thing the country needs is to become part of another war.
AP Photo/Hussein Malla
‘Back to the Stone Age’?
But whether Lebanon becomes a part of the war, ultimately, is not up to the Lebanese government.
The current caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, has cautioned against a war with Israel, as did Druze and Maronite political leaders, who have traditionally opposed Hezbollah’s military hegemony in Lebanon.
Mikati acknowledged, however, that he holds no power to decide whether Lebanon will go to war, reflecting the paradoxes of the Lebanese political system in which the most crucial decision any national leadership could make – the decision to launch a war – does not rest within the government but within Hezbollah and by extension within Iran.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly stated that the group’s prime role is to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Its commitment to Iran, on the other hand, has been openly demonstrated through its direct involvement in the Syrian civil war, which saved Bashar Assad’s government. But that war was fought mostly on Syrian soil. A war with Israel would be very different.
It would be another tragic page in the history of Lebanon if Hezbollah were to join the war against Israel, in purported support for Palestinians in Gaza. It could prompt Israel – in the words of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – to try to send Lebanon “back to the Stone Age.” Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, already answered in kind.
It would also likely lead to the broader regional war that U.S. officials, including President Joe Biden, have been trying so desperately to avoid. And Lebanon itself would move closer to the brink of absolute and irreversible collapse.
Asher Kaufman is Professor of History and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
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oldtimer says
Two days from forty year anniversary of Beirut bombing we still think we can fix problems in the middle east? Let Them work it out, I was there …lost friends in a “peace keeping mission in part of the world that can’t do peace
Kat says
I wish there was a way to designate the entire Middle East as a UNESCO heritage site, given that it is the most sacred land in terms of three major world religions. If it could somehow be designated as neutral where Muslims, Christians, and Jewish people could all freely practice their religion under a secular government, there could perhaps be peace in the region. Outside of that, I don’t see where there could be peace. It makes my heart heavy that untold millions of people have died over the course of history in the name of religion.
Gonna get Ugly folks says
The US war ships are not out there waiting, pacing back and forth to level Gaza into a parking lot, The Israelis are doing a fine job of that. They are there to vaporize Hezbollah in Lebanon if they lift a finger. They (Hezbollah) are well equipped with the US Munitions and heavy equipment left behind in Bidens disastrous and un-coordinated pullout of Afghanistan. Gaza Hamas fighters are trying to build rockets out of PVC plumbing pipe and killing their own people because these makeshift missiles cannot get out of Gaza before the blow up their own hospitals. Hezbollah has Blackhawks, armored personnel carriers, HumVees, Bradley fighting vehicles Howitzers, all that US Tax Payer Goodness Joe Biden gave to the enemy while C5 Galaxy transport cargo planes flew out with desperate Palestinians clinging to the landing gear doors dropping of the plane like rain when the pilot retracted the wheels.
Problem is if the Ayatollah of Iran calls Biden’s bluff and commands Hezbollah to fight, Alls biden is known for is Financial reward to the Ayatollah and appeasement. Like Joe is playing poker but left his ray bans at home, and his poker face.
Ray W. says
I see we have a new candidate for the FlaglerLive commenter most likely to wander through life fooling him or herself. The list is long and growing, with no end in sight.
When President Trump signed the agreement in 2020 to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan in April 2021, and then immediately turned over captured Afghan leaders to the Taliban pursuant to the terms of that agreement, does anyone think that Trump also intended to take all weaponry away from the Afghan Army when we left? The Afghan Army had helicopter and other aircraft pilots, tank crews and other armored units, and many thousands of troops, all armed. Much, if not most, of the weaponry that was left in Afghanistan was to supply that army in its future endeavors. It was believed (hoped?) that the Afghan Army would stand and fight the Taliban, but the soldiers simply laid down their arms en masse and melted away into the populace. I do not doubt that some of that weaponry will spread across the globe and that Hezbollah has or will get some of it.
For that matter, U.S. weaponry and mechanized equipment provided to the Iraqi Army was simply abandoned by Iraqi soldiers as ISIS conquered vast swaths of the north central Middle East. Does anyone think that these vast stores of weaponry remained on the abandoned military bases? There is good reason to believe that Hezbollah possesses some of that materiel, too.
U.S. weaponry captured by Russians in the Ukraine is likely to end up in various areas of the world, too, but at least the Ukrainian armed forces are bravely standing their ground and retaking some of it. It didn’t take very long at all for John Deere heavy agricultural machinery to be transported out of the Ukraine by rail; much of it ended up in Chechnya. But at least John Deere had the foresight to adapt access to the internet into the electronic components of their equipment; the company simply identified the location of the stolen Ukrainian-owned tractors and sent out a signal that disabled the electronics of the stolen tractors. Yes, people are capable of rewiring the equipment to make it operate without working electronics, but the value of the equipment is compromised when it cannot be used as intended.
I accept that people like Gonna get Ugly folks have every right to engage in a rich fantasy life, where everything they can imagine suddenly becomes real, and cause and effect have little meaning. The closer we get to election time, the worse the predictions are likely to become. FlaglerLive readers simply need to repeat the founding fathers’ mantra whenever they read comments such as the one posted by Gonna get Ugly folks, as the mantra was expressed in the Federalist Papers: Pestilential partisan member of faction. The likes of Gonna get Ugly folks have always existed among us, even 240 years ago. They exist among us today. They will exist among us in the future. Reason has no meaning to them. Exaggeration and disinformation are their stock in trade.
Getting Uglier says
Ray, I applaud your blind allegiance to joe, but Fantasy is when you democrats believed Joe Biden on the stump, Hook Line and SINKING when he Touted himself as a “Seasoned Statesman” of international affairs! The guy can’t even give a short speech without a teleprompter or field a random question, as he rambles incoherently eyes tightly shut before dissolving into some meaningless drivel of incomprehensible babbling. It is embarrassing!
The pullout of Afghanistan was indeed quite the blunder or the century, in that there was no skeletal crew to oversee (and pay?!?) the Afghan army? Not a Hint of intelligence suggesting all will desert their posts? Like money a gun knows no master. It would have been far better to round up everything from Blackhawks down to bullet proof vests (While we still controlled these goods) dump some barrels of Jet A fuel and toss match over the shoulder, because now we have to fight these religious freakazoids shooting at us with our own state of the art weaponry, and its harder than ever to kill them, because they are wearing US Kevlar body armor. Brilliant plan Joe!
Im sure the Blackhawks were disabled Ive only heard they’ve fired one up but not flown. and they are heavy maintenance items, Iran still owns many F-14 Tomcat jet fighters from Pre-1979, but no spares sold since then unless they can find some on the black market, I doubt any can take to the air without parts and technical personnel. But the HumVees, Armored personnel carriers howitzers these things are pretty analog, I think Hezzbolah’s got it figured out!
PS: Disinformation (“The border is secure, really!) and Spin (Anything press Sec. K.J.P. says) are your party’s stock and trade, and you’re getting really good at it last 3 years… You know, practice makes perfect!
Ray W. says
Once again, the gullible among us strikes.
As I have stated many times before, I began commenting on FlaglerLive within a few weeks, perhaps a few days, of learning that a Flagler-based Republican politician had taken to the radio to ask of his listeners when would it be time to begin beheading Democrats. And he was not alone in fomenting carnage and death for his fellow citizens. People call out at MAGA rallies, asking when they can begin killing Democrats. Our governor even promised to slit throats on his first day in office, should he be elected president.
My consistent theme from my earliest comments is that we are in the early years of a long and violent political uprising, a form of political sickness, which is being spread by the many disaffected pestilential partisan members of faction among us. You are but a small part of that spreading political sickness. My choice is to oppose those who rely on half-truths and disinformation to distort their messages. There are those among us who wish for violence in our midst in the name of one political faction. You, being blind to what is happening, think that I support the Biden administration. I do not. I oppose you and those like you. Yes, I have hopes for JimboXYZ, but I accept that an election is fast approaching, and he is backsliding; he just can’t help himself right now. I will simply have to wait until the election fever passes and resume my attempts to rehabilitate him.
I repeatedly point out that while judges and lawyers can be punished for lying in a courtroom, not a single politician in America swears to tell the truth as part of their oath of office. Anyone who believes anything a politician states exposes himself to gullible thinking.
For example, I agree with you in part that the Biden administration botched the exit from Afghanistan.
However, years ago, I became aware of a statute that was passed a few years after we entered into the Afghan debacle. Its purpose was to streamline immigration processes so that those thousands of Afghan interpreters, soldiers, officers, government officials, and their immediate families could more quickly immigrate to America should the need arise. One would think that some American cabinet member of the W administration would have started the creation of a database of eligible Afghans. No one did. One would think that some cabinet member of the Obama administration would pick up the dropped ball and start the creation of a database of eligible Afghans. No one did. You would think that some cabinet member of the Trump administration would search out the now-lost ball and pick it up and start the creation of a database of eligible Afghans, particularly after Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban to have American forces leave at the end of April 2021, but no one did. The Atlantic published an article about the Afghan exit, including a segment about the history of the statute, in which it was pointed out that during the entire year of 2020, including the eight months after Trump signed the deal to leave, we processed an uninspiring 213 Afghans for entry into America under the auspices of the Act. You would then think that on the first day of the Biden administration, some cabinet member would have initiated the creation of a database of eligible Afghans, but no one did. Then came the carnage, chaos, and dysfunction at the airport that you write about. Talk about half-truths. Yes, Afghans desperately held onto departing military jets, eventually falling to their deaths. Again, in 2020, 213 Afghans were processed. In 2021, some 70,000 Afghans were brought out of the country, but we lacked the statutory authority to bring them into the country without papers, or even to house them all if we could bring them in, so the American taxpayer is paying other nations to house most of those Afghans until we can process them for potential immigration. What a fiasco, particularly to those who risked their lives during a civil war in their country to help us and live in limbo until we decide whether they really helped us or not.
Your commenter name should not be Getting Uglier; it should be Pestilential Half-Truths.
TREEMAN says
Appeasement NEVER brings PEACE! England and France tried APPEASEMENT with Hitler and it lead to WWII. America must destroy the Economy of Iran by STOPPING their Oil Production!
ASF says
It DOES seem like we are eerily re-living the 1930’s all over again.
Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.