By Simon Mabon
The Israeli military is reported to have signed off on a major offensive against Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militia, prompting fears that the situation could spiral into a full-blown war. The two sides have been exchanging fire since the conflict in Gaza began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. But in recent weeks this has escalated considerably.
Earlier this week, Hezbollah released a nine-minute video featuring drone footage of Israeli military and civilian infrastructure, including of the port town of Haifa. Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, warned that his government was “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon”. Simon Mabon, a Middle East expert at Lancaster University, addressed some key questions for us.
How dangerous is the situation right now?
The situation on the border between Israel and Lebanon has been precarious for months, with tit-for-tat exchanges of cross-border fire becoming a regular occurrence between Israel and Hezbollah (the “Party of God”). While many feared an outright conflict between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah after the October 7 attacks, both sides have thus far remained within the parameters of low-intensity conflict. The consequences of any escalation are severe, with the potential for mass casualties on all sides.
Though conflict has remained at a low level, more than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon and 30 have been killed in Israel. An estimated 150,000 have been displaced on both sides of the border. Though the events of October 7 and their aftermath have affected the situation, Hezbollah and Israel have been embroiled in low-level conflict since Hezbollah was formed in 1982.
The 2006 war was the most significant moment in this history. This began after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers from close to the border in an attempted prisoner swap. In response, Israel embarked on a destructive war designed to eliminate Hezbollah. At the time, the war was sold by Israel both domestically and internationally with a similar objective to that found in the current war against Hamas.
The memories of the war almost two decades ago linger. The war in 2006 had a devastating impact on Lebanon. Reconstruction cost over US$10 billion (£7.86 billion) and was funded largely by Saudi Arabia, Iran and others.
Since then, the geopolitical landscape has shifted. It would be far harder to finance any rebuilding projects. Meanwhile the loss of life is likely to be catastrophic – particularly in Lebanon’s crowded urban areas.
Residents of Haifa in the north of Israel fear Hezbollah attacks, while people living in south Lebanon fear IDF attacks. Though attacks have largely been restricted to military targets, the repercussions have affected civilians across south Lebanon, destroying farmland and forcing many people to leave their homes. This has made an already precarious socioeconomic situation in Lebanon a great deal worse.
Institute for the Study of War
Recent reports have suggested that Hezbollah has a sophisticated armoury, much of it supplied by Iran and Russia, which includes more than a million rockets of various types, along with anti-tank weaponry, suicide drones and a range of missiles. While Israel’s arsenal of missiles is far larger, along with the infrastructure that supports it, the IDF remains beset by political, strategic, theological and economic challenges and Israel’s public and politicians are far from united about how to deal with the threat.
The recent resignation of Benny Gantz from the war cabinet – which has since been disbanded – shows how precarious the situation is for Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under pressure to resign and call an election.
How well prepared is Israel to fight a war on two fronts – perhaps even three, as violence is also increasing in the West Bank?
There are serious doubts as to whether Israel can engage in significant conflicts on two fronts. Rising violence in the West Bank poses an additional challenge for Israel’s security apparatus. Its security infrastructure has come under fire for “missing” Hamas’ brutal attack, while its military is also facing increased pressure due to its actions in Gaza where close to 40,000 have been killed, millions displaced, and where life has been decimated.
The occupied West Bank is home to around 3 million Palestinians, and while the Palestinian Authority exerts a degree of control, Israel is the final arbiter of all matters pertaining to security.
The situation is made more challenging by the presence of close to 700,000 Israeli settlers, whose presence is deemed illegal under international law. These settlers routinely engage in acts of violence against the Palestinian population and largely depend on the IDF to keep them safe and maintain the security architecture that separates the two communities and regulates access to Israel.
Any shift in the security landscape would pose serious challenges to the IDF, to the Palestinian Authority – which is under growing pressure from Palestinians and Arab states more broadly – and exacerbate schisms in Israel’s domestic politics.
How much international support can Israel count on if it launches a major offensive against Hezbollah?
Benjamin Netanyahu has long framed Iran as an existential threat to Israel and has been supported in this by successive US administrations. Yet despite steadfast initial support from the Biden White House, this support has begun to wane as a result of growing popular dismay in the US and globally at the way Israel is conducting operations in Gaza.
Israeli officials have repeatedly said that they can – and will – operate alone if the situation calls for it. But with international bodies becoming increasingly critical of the catastrophic war in Gaza and the devastating death toll, allies are beginning to waver in their support. Votes in the UN have suggested growing anger at Israel’s conduct, while international bodies have explored legal avenues to end the suffering of Palestinians.
Much like Hamas, Hezbollah is a deeply unpopular organisation. Its relationship with Iran worries policymakers in Washington, London and elsewhere and it has been proscribed as a terrorist organisation by a number of western states.
Yet it occupies a central role in Lebanon’s politics and economy. So any conflict with Israel would potentially worsen Lebanon’s delicate power sharing agreement, putting more strain on the economic situation, and destroying urban and rural landscapes.
The situation is bleak and this is undeniably a precarious moment. Yet there is little appetite for another conflict in the Middle East, particularly one that has both the potential for further catastrophic loss of life and wider escalation.
Simon Mabon is Professor of International Relations at Lancaster University.
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Pogo says
@Simon Mabon
Is Samson invited?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
Ray W. says
Hello Pogo.
I ask of you your thoughts on the never-ending Middle East peril, from the perspective of the following story.
The News-Journal just published a retrospective on the life of Jerry West, the basketball superstar who recently passed away. In the retrospective, West was attributed with repeatedly telling an apocryphal story of a Cherokee warrior passing wisdom to a grandson:
“The battle inside each of us is between two wolves. One is anger, envy, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, false pride, superiority and ego. The other is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, generosity, truth and compassion.”
“The grandson asks, ‘Which wolf wins?'”
“The old warrior says, ‘The one you feed.'”
Deirdre says
Good overview, here’s some thoughts to prevent a huge war in my opinion.
Biden needs to get out of the race since he can’t stand up to Netanyahu and is complicit in this genocide.
We need a Democrat who can win, and since Trump promises to support Israel even more, I imagine that means a huge war in the Middle East.
The only way to keep this war from spreading is to cut Israel off! Biden’s not doing the Israeli people any favors by funding this war, which Netanyahu will never end. Israel is already a pariah state and their economy is going to collapse. Their tourism industry is shot, and people are starting to fight back.
I guess we’re supposed to fund the upcoming war in Lebanon, then moving onto Iran, further hostilities with other Middle Eastern countries, China and Russia getting involved, all because we have some despicable heartless idiots at the top. They all need to be voted out of power!
Hamas instigated the destruction of their own people and everything else in Gaza, they should be voted out too, not that they have elections in Gaza.
Only about 7% of the current population voted for Hamas, too young to vote or not born, yet they lost everything. The people being bombed, shot, tortured, and starved are innocent! What a nightmare it is for these poor people, what a nightmare it is for Israeli people that want the hostages back.
Their government doesn’t care about getting those hostages back, it’s impossible to eliminate Hamas, but they are successful at destroying life in Gaza Thanks to American weapons and money. Israel’s doing a pretty good job murdering Palestinians in the West Bank too, so the ‘we’re just trying to protect ourselves’ excuse is it a joke.
It is possible to have two sets of victims, no one has to choose one side or the other, this region deserves peace. Ordinary civilians don’t want this war on any side, this is going to be a disaster for the people in Lebanon too.
The Hamas attack in Israel was the perfect excuse for the ethnic cleansing this extremist government has wanted to instigate for decades.
The Israeli people need to get rid of Netanyahu with new elections and put the brakes on this, then Hezbollah will stop attacking. They did last time there was a ceasefire.
Israel is running out of weapons, money, and soldiers, so I believe we will have American boots on the ground in the very near future, when Hezbollah and Israel begin their war. If we cut them off now, they can’t finance a second war.
Don’t get me started on the nuclear buildup between the most powerful nations on earth… nothing good can come of this.
Hippy says
The only way to stop this war from spreading is to stop Iran from funding Hamas and Hezbollah. Until that happens it never ends. All that funding does is continue to try to make Israel out as the bad guy while all they are doing is defending themselves.
Pierre Tristam says
Iran isn’t funding Hezbollah anywhere near the level of US military funding for Israel’s genocidal machine. And not that I can even believe that I’d say anything that would sound like Hezbollah is the better actor here–it isn’t–but it isn’t Hezbollah that has invaded Lebanon three times since 1978, occupied its southern portion for 22 of those years, and massacred over 20,000 people, most of them civilians–compared to a handful few from Hezbollah’s pathetic rockets, and a few hundred soldiers in combat on the soil Israel was invading and occupying. All told, the mass killers here are the Israelis, whose daily provocation even I endured personally, with their arrogant sound-barrier breaking fighter-jet violations of our air space, when I was a kid back there–and those were the milder provocations. To call Israel “the bad guy” is the understatement of the ages, and to pass over in silence American complicity by the billions is conveniently disingenuous. But hey, it’s been what, since 2006 that Israel hasn’t leveled Lebanese infrastructure and massacred a few thousand Lebanese? So by all means. What’s Israel–um, the good guys, the wonderful guys, the saintly guys–waiting for? Please sir, may I have some more bombings?
Hippy says
Hello Pierre. I appreciate your comments as someone who has lived there and gone through the hell. I know you have in the past but would love to have you write a new editorial with your perspective of what is going on over there, but also include thoughts of stopping it at its source. We both know Israel is not going to stop defending themselves. You send rockets at them they are going to respond. The extremists in Israel need to be put in their place, but Iran funding these extremists organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas just enough to get Israel to react needs to be stopped. That reaction from Israel they are wanting is for the killing of innocents that they hide behind. Those deaths then make the headlines and world reactions. Iran and others who fund these extremists do not give a shit about the Lebanese or the Palestinians. Until the root of the problem gets taken care of and that is Iran and others who are funding these origination’s who’s mantra is the elimination of Israel. Until the media and the world stops reacting, just as Iran wants you to react, and starts addressing Iran (and others) funding these lunatics, it is not going to change.
DaleL says
In Iowa, where I grew up, the US air force apparently believed rural areas were uninhabited. The low flying jets and sonic booms were an every week event. At least they were “our” jets. So I sympathize with Pierre’s childhood.
As to the middle east, if there were an easy solution it would have happened by now. Between the two, Hezbollah is more rational than Hamas. Israel (the Israeli people and government) need to understand that the heavy handed, over the top retribution for attacks on Israel are becoming counterproductive. Israel needs to become more tolerant of its horrible neighbors. (Firing rockets at civilians is not neighborly.) Israel must also give up the West Bank and remove most of the settlers. The international community also needs to step up. The newly freed West Bank will need infrastructure and an effective police force. No organization, such as Hamas, can be allowed to take control of the West Bank. Otherwise the West Bank could become Gaza on steroids.
It is not likely that Hamas will release what remaining living captives that they still have. It should be a constant reminder that Hamas is a criminal organization. Early on in Gaza, Hamas murdered their political opponents and seized power. The deaths and destruction in Gaza are the direct result of Hamas. Hamas uses civilians as human shields, which is a war crime. Abducting, torturing, and murdering innocent civilians is criminal. However, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are not winning over any friends in the brutish attempt to free the remaining hostages.
Anyway that’s my 2 cents.
Deborah Coffey says
Sorry, Hippy. Israel is, and has been for a long time, doing much more than defending itself. It has been murderous and The United States needs to cut all ties with Israel at this point and let Israel “defend itself.” The truth is: Netanyahu=Trump=Putin. They are all one and the same. No good will ever come from working with Bibi Netanyahu. He is a thug and a liar, who like Trump, is trying to avoid going to prison.
oldtimer says
News flash, the middle east has been at war for a long time,. And usually started or funded by outside sources. Maybe everyone supporting a side should leave and let the countries work it out themselves
dave says
You will never stop these type of wars that have been going on in the middle east for a long long long time, especially Iran and Israel since 1985. Its their way of life to hate. Until Iran ceases to stop providing weapons to these countries that hate Israel, it will continue to go on until one of these countries wipes the other off the map. But of course all of the Allies for each will get sucked in and its then just a big freaking worthless mess.
NJ says
CRAZY that Jews and Arabs are continuing to FIGHT over SHIT land (Goat & Camel HEAVEN)! Time for each to have their OWN Country! Will the United Nations bring Peace? Maybe when Hell Freezes Over! Study the agreements signed after WWI by England and France to SCREW Turkey and you will understand how the Jew vs Arab Conflict Started! BEWARE America, trying to control little nations always gets America in another STUPID War! America First!
Deborah Coffey says
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately because half my family are Jews. A country is as good or bad as its leaders. Considering the character, incompetence and criminality of Bibi Netanyahu, does Israel deserve to exist? If the United States allows Trump in the White House again, does it deserve to survive? The entire world order will change with the U.S. in league with Russia, China, North Korea and other autocratic nations even though it will never be able to trust its new allies . The “shining city upon a hill” will be no more. It will become what Trump IS..a corrupt, vile, immoral and impoverished nation living on lies. It will be a country where everyone lives in constant fear of the terrible things the “leader” and his oligarchs will do to them next. It’s hard watching your country dying a slow, painful death. But, will it be deserved?