With insurers, utilities and emergency-management officials bracing for the coming months, experts continue to predict a highly active hurricane season for Florida and other areas of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Echoing earlier predictions about the season that will start June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday pointed to warm ocean waters and forecast up to 25 named storms, with up to 13 reaching hurricane strength and four to seven packing Category 3 or stronger winds.
Mark Wool, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Tallahassee office, said there is high confidence in the latest forecast, which doesn’t predict paths of storms or potential landfalls.
“All of the ingredients are there. We still have those near-record warm waters out in the Atlantic tropical-development areas that were there last year, and we no longer have (the climate pattern known as) El Nino,” Wool said. “We actually like to have an El Nino during hurricane season, because it increases wind shear over the development areas.”
Officials also have growing concern that rapid intensification of storms is becoming more frequent, resulting in less time for preparations and evacuations.
“While climate change as science doesn’t necessarily indicate we’re going to be getting more tropical cyclones on average, we are predicting that there will be more of the major hurricanes and more of a category 4s and 5s,” Wool added. “And that this rapid intensification, which has been on the increase, will happen more frequently.”
The six-month season officially begins June 1, but a disturbance Thursday off the eastern tip of Cuba had a low chance to grow into the year’s first named system.
Acknowledging the possibility of “a very, very intense hurricane season,” state Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said last month that “one thing that we do better than anything else is respond to hurricanes.”
Guthrie said the division is prepared for up to five storms hitting the state and expects to rely “more heavily” than in past years on contractors providing pre- and post-storm materials. Speaking to the Flagler Beach City Commission two weeks ago, Guthrie said there have been some predictions of up to 33 named storms.
“For example, we used to have five logistics vendors, we now have 12 logistics vendors,” Guthrie said. “That’s all in preparation for this season that’s coming up.”
Florida State University Climatologist David Zierden said the forecasts of a busy season haven’t been a surprise because of the ocean temperatures.
“The latest analysis I saw is that sea surface temperatures in the main development region are as warm as they normally are in mid-August right now,” Zierden told reporters on May 16. “That’s what we’re looking at. The sea surface temperatures in that region were record warm last year. And we’re even above that going into this hurricane season.”
The NOAA forecast Thursday was similar to a Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science forecast of 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes.
Experts at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Arts & Sciences, meanwhile, forecast an eye-opening 33 named storms.
The private meteorology company AccuWeather warned Wednesday about rapidly intensifying storms, which gain wind intensity of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
“Over the last couple of years, there have been many examples where this has been exceeded. We’ve seen 40 mph, 50 mph, even 60 mph increases in a 24-hour period,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said in a prepared statement.
Among the examples was 2022’s Hurricane Ian, which went from a 120-mph Category 3 hurricane to a 160-mph Category 5 system in the 24 hours before it struck Southwest Florida as a devastating Category 4 storm.
The 2023 season was the fourth most-active on record with 20 named storms, including seven that reached hurricane strength and three major storms. In late August, Hurricane Idalia made landfall in Taylor County as a Category 3 storm before tearing through parts of rural North Florida.
From 1991 to 2020 the Atlantic averaged 14.4 storms a year, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane strength.
Armando Pimentel, president and CEO of Florida Power & Light, told members of the state Public Service Commission on Tuesday that the utility has to prepare for storms that could quickly intensify because “we no longer feel comfortable that a Category 1 is going to stay Category 1.”
“That wasn’t the case 20 years ago,” Pimentel said. “And maybe it’s a bunch of flukes that have happened over the last couple of years. But we need to be well prepared.”
Pimentel said maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Idalia increased by 55 mph in 24 hours before landfall.
“That’s taking a Category 1 storm to Category 3, almost to a Category 4. That’s significant,” Pimentel said. “That what I’m talking about. The waters are warm again this year. We’re all cognizant of that as we’re going to prepare for this year.”
Patricia Born, a professor of risk management and insurance at Florida State University, told reporters May 16 that changes have helped the property-insurance market, such as legislation that bolstered insurers and backing from reinsurers. Entering hurricane season, Born said Floridians can get coverage from private insurers or through the state’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp.
“So, it’s a good thing to know, from a social point of view, that we don’t have a huge gap with people being uninsured going into the season,” Born said.
But Born cautioned that the state continues to face storms that affect homeowners’ premiums. The problem, Born added, is getting through a period before legislation fully takes hold.
“I’m pretty optimistic that one storm is not going to kill us. A couple of storms may be a little bit more of an issue,” Born said. “If this is a season where we have two or three hurricanes, we’re going to be facing some concerns.”
–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida
Nephew Of Uncle Sam says
Then on top of al the science RonDUH wants the words “Climate Change” stricken from State Records. I guess putting your head in the sand means it will all go away and the tourists will visit 365 Days a year in perpetual Sunshine.
Joe D says
What? Florida worrying about STORMS!?…We don’t have to worry about DANGERS due to Climate Change…Governor DeSantis solved that problem with the stroke of a PEN ( that was SARCASM people, for those not picking it up).
In REALITY, despite NUMEROUS serious storms recently, many Flagler County residents still don’t seem to prepare for at least a week of no power or water, much less not being able to remain in their home.
As a REALITY CHECK….my youngest son in Texas was caught up in the recent series of storms and Tornados. 1st storm took out his power for 3 days, while he was out of town….lost the contents of freezer and fridge. The second series of storms and tornadoes 10 days ago, actually damaged his home, and slightly injured him, knocked out the water supply. Power the second time was out for 6 days, and destroyed his Cell provider’s cell towers…still out 10 days later, even when the power came back on.
Flagler Beach was seriously damaged by Flooding in 2022 (hopefully enough changes in the storm water drainage system, its design and water holding tanks…reduces SOME RISK)… but unfortunately the surprising lack of elevation from the ground, isn’t easily corrected.
As a recent Flagler Beach homeowner, I wouldn’t consider buying a home that wasn’t elevated at least 8 ft above the ground. My home state of Maryland required ALL beach/water area homes built since the mid 1980’s, be elevated 8-10 ft off the ground. It surprised me, when I looked at Flagler Beach homes, even as late as homes built after 2005, the BIG construction requirement was for WIND mitigation. Water/flooding concerns were BARELY mentioned. I was SHOCKED.
I ended up buying a poured concrete and steel cable (not rebar) townhome with concrete slab floors and concrete slab roof, with parking underneath , and the first living level elevated 8 ft above the ground, and a total of 20 ft above sea level.
It does look like we are in for a continuing storm season…and being prepared for even a short systems disruption takes significant PLANNING.
Deborah Coffey says
Dearest Republicans and Governor DeSantis, you can’t keep telling people that climate change is a hoax and then reassure those same people that Florida is prepared for a “very, very intense hurricane season.” You’re not prepared: “Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said last month that “one thing that we do better than anything else is respond to hurricanes.”
“Guthrie said the division is prepared for up to five storms hitting the state.” FIVE? Really? You’re so mighty, Ron, maybe you can even control the weather? Try it.
Shark says
NOAA can’t even predict day to day weather !!!!
Stephen says
Ron believes in climate change, just don’t say it.
dave says
I’m not worried because our Gov DeathSantis case in point : April 24, 2024 ; Gov Desk.
““Strong infrastructure is the best way to protect against the impacts of a future hurricane,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “We are making investments that strengthen our state, help homeowners strengthen their homes, and increase our coastal protection against a storm.” …. where is this so called money I’ve not seen any
““Under Governor DeSantis, the State of Florida has transformed itself into a national and global leader in flood mitigation and resilience,” said Florida’s Chief Resilience Officer Dr. Wes Brooks.::, FLA still floods regardless of what these Bozo’s say.
From Fla Politics article May 26th, 2024
“But on the hurricanes it’s kind of like, you know, if it’s like a Category 1, people say, ‘All right, you know, we’ll have a picnic or something,’” he said in Iowa.
“Category 2, well, we just go on our way,” DeSantis continued. “Category 3, well, you know, maybe they’ll make a slight adjustment. Then only if it’s above, then people really start to worry about it because you kind of live and you learn.”
From a April 7th FLA Politics article
““The newer construction can withstand strong hurricanes,” DeSantis said in Davie. “We’re going to continue to have them whether they’re worse or not. I don’t know if there’s data for that, but I think some people assert that, but either way we’re in a situation where, you know, this stuff has worked.”
The man is clueless.