Political experts don’t anticipate last week’s conviction of former President Donald Trump in New York will create significant down-ballot momentum — either way — for candidates in Florida.
Fundraising has ratcheted up after Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records, but experts in Florida pointed to issues such as voters already having their minds made up.
Carol Weissert, a Florida State University political-science professor emerita, said the court decision might affect some independents and younger voters. But Weissert said that might be more of a factor “in states that are still up for grabs.”
Even before the 12-member jury in New York City returned its verdict Thursday, a majority of Florida voters were already entrenched behind their candidates. Also, district lines had been crafted so that few legislative and congressional races likely will be competitive in November.
Weissert added she’d like to see polling trends before saying with confidence if the conviction will affect any races. In addition to running against Democratic President Joe Biden, Trump faces independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“I’m also going to look at how Trump and Biden respond to the conviction,” Weissert said. “Ranting might help energize Trump’s base but probably won’t do much for NPAs (no-party affiliation voters) and wavering Republicans. I’m also going to be interested to see if Robert Kennedy benefits from the Trump trial. He might look better to Republicans who can’t vote for a felon than Biden.”
An Economist/YouGov poll released Friday morning had 10 percent of Republicans saying they would be less likely to vote for Trump because of the conviction. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday showed 54 percent of independent voters thought Trump got a fair trial.
Such polls indicate Trump’s convictions could become a factor as Republicans try to hold on to supermajorities in the Florida House and Senate, University of Central Florida political-science professor Aubrey Jewett said.
Jewett, who contends the verdicts could help both parties increase turnout, added that some independents and political moderates might be more hesitant to vote for Trump with the convictions.
“If this comes to pass, then Florida Democrats may see some legislative pick-ups in districts where they actually had, have a lead in voter registration but still lost in 2022 due to abysmal turnout,” Jewett said. “This would not be enough to win control of either (chamber of the) Legislature, but might be enough to eliminate the GOP supermajority of the past two years.”
Susan MacManus, a retired political-science professor at the University of South Florida, said the court decision might “spike turnout for working-class Republicans, MAGA-types.” But she questioned how long the verdicts will be a dominant concern with the November election five months away.
“Has Jan. 6 had a lot of legs?” MacManus said, referring to the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters. “I mean they talk about it, but people are ignoring it.”
In applauding the verdict in the Trump trial, Democrats have argued that nobody’s above the law. Republicans have lambasted the verdict as a “political witch hunt” and as election interference.
The Republican Party of Florida said shortly after the verdict that “Florida will lead the way in bringing the RED wave to vindicate President Donald J. Trump once and for all.”
The Florida Democratic Party asked for $34 donations, and party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said “this verdict doesn’t change our strategy.”
MacManus questioned both parties’ tactics.
In Florida’s down-ballot contests, including proposed constitutional amendments that would allow recreational marijuana and enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution, voters will be driven by certain personal issues, including how they feel about the direction of the country, MacManus said.
“The two parties are trying to use old tactics to try to get these younger people to the polls,” MacManus said.
“When people think of Florida, everything was contingent on old voters. But I’m starting to have a different feeling about the issue-versus-party thing,” MacManus said. “When I go speak to these party groups … the age there is striking. And they’re the ones that are controlling a lot of grassroots, get out the vote, get to spread the message, particularly on down-ballot candidates.”
MacManus said millennials and Gen Z voters are growing “more issue driven than party driven.”
–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida
Tired of it says
The cult followers will give him their last dollar, while he laughs and ridicules them.
John says
If he is the best pick for the Republican party for President in 2024, it’s pathetic. The guy is a felon and shouldn’t even be allowed to run. You can’t own a firearm if convicted felon, most foreign countries won’t let felon in their country, you can’t be a realtor if you are a convicted felon. The list goes on and on so why should he be allowed to run for the President of the USA, As far as his appeal on 34 counts good luck seeing all those count’s thrown out, it won’t happen.
Robjr says
A so called billionaire panhandling.
Rather an accused and found to be rapist, an adulterer, a self admitted sexual assaulter of women, a tax scam artist, liar, inciter to riot etc., etc.
Almost forget, a CONVICTED FELON.
Begging for money from people who have 2 quarters to rub together and will give him one of them.
He is a guy who would not piss on them if they were on fire.
Endless Dark Money says
In the History of America no other person has been convicted of 34 felonies and not gone to prison, which shows our corrupt justice system is based on your bank account not your guilt. Maggots dont use brains just hate and fear. haha the GOP will be quick to give you the “freedum” of not having a choice. Sad there are so many that believe the entertainment news and vote against their own self-interest. Guess thats how it goes when representation is for sale. Says alot when “conservatives” will vote for a felon loser and back them no matter what they say or do. Florida should ban orange people its just not normal lol. Quick open your wallet for orange moron he has 65 more felonies to face ; can only avoid taxes and manipulate property values so much then we need your donation to keep our convict moron from justice.
The Sour Kraut says
It is terrible that I have to choose the dementia patient so the con man doesn’t become president again. You’d think we could get some decent candidates in a country of over 300 million.
DaleL says
Two elderly men who are well past their prime. It’s a tough call as to which one is in worse shape. President Biden has had a stutter all his life and has a history of gaffs. They both seem to be more prevalent now. Mr. Trump has a history of ignorance, lies, and nastiness. He is also worse than ever.
If Republicans want to win the White House, they should nominate Nikki Haley and dump felon Trump.
If Democrats want to beat Haley, they would need to dump grandpa Biden.
I will vote for the guy who has not surrounded himself with felons. Sports personality Colin Cowherd said: “Donald Trump is now a felon,” Cowherd said. “His campaign chairman was a felon. So is his deputy campaign manager, his personal lawyer, his chief strategist, his National Security Adviser, his Trade Advisor, his Foreign Policy Adviser, his campaign fixer and his company CFO. They’re all felons. Judged by the company you keep. It’s a cabal of convicts.”
Laurel says
Sour: So you’re a doctor who can do diagnosis? Where is your proof? Yeah, no pro0f needed for BS these days.
Just more of the same.