Flagler County is again among the faster-growing counties in the nation, but not among the fastest. The county added 16,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, a 14 percent increase beginning to resemble the population surge of the early 2000s that was halted by the housing crash.
Put another way: the county has grown by a population equivalent to more than three times the size of Flagler Beach in that brief span. Just since 2010, the county has grown by 40,000 people.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2023 estimates of population released today, Flagler County had a population of 131,439 people as of last July 1, up from 115,372 at the time of the 2020 Census, and up from 126,758 just since July 1, 2022. The year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent places Flagler near the top end of the faster-growing counties in the state.
A disproportionate part of the population increase is driven by people 65 and over: in 2010, the proportion of the population that was 65 or over was 24.5 percent–at the time, 24,405 people. In 2023, that proportion had grown to 31.4 percent, or 41,300 people.
Conversely, the proportion of people who were younger than 18 in 2010 was 20 percent (or 19,000 people in that age category). In July 2023, the proportion of people younger than 18 had fallen to 16 percent, or 21,000 people. So while the number of people 65 and over has increased by nearly 17,000 since 2010, it has increase by only 2,000 people who are younger than 18. That explains why the school district’s traditional schools’ population has stagnated for a decade and a half, with an small uptick only this year: even with the slight increase in the school-age population, it has coincided with a migration from traditional schools to charter, private and home schooling, spurred in large part by the state’s increasing subsidies of private education at public expense.
Both Palm Coast Mayor David Alfin and County Commission Chair Andy Dance said the county and its cities need a healthier balance between older and younger people.
“That’s scary to me because it’s going in the wrong direction,” Alfin, who is himself in the older category, said of the demographic trend. “I have nothing against folks my age, but I recognize that I need people, residents here, who are my daughter’s age.” She tried to settle locally, but got a better offer elsewhere, he said. “If I don’t help turn the tide on an aging-only community, I don’t believe we will be financially sustainable for the long term, because we will tax people out of their houses to pay for an aging infrastructure, which as you know, is aging like our population.”
A stronger local job base would help turn that trend around, Dance said, as it would attract working-age residents with families. Palm Coast and the county are now primarily attracting retirees who are selling homes in the North, Midwest and Pacific zones (where many counties are losing population) and moving here.
“We’re in a great place to live, when you have a county like Flagler,” Dance said. “People definitely want to move to Florida, and when they look at where in Florida they want to move, Flagler has a lot to offer. There’s good points to be made about infrastructure. We’re seeing that debate now, with the recent city council debate on utilities, so it’s definitely front and center in our current discussions.” Along with infrastructure, Dance said, the county’s tree canopy and its natural resources have to be a priority if quality of life is to be maintained.
“I would first turn around and thank my predecessors all the way back, there’s only been three of them,” Alfin said, in reference to former mayors Milissa Holland, Jon Netts and Jim Canfield, “for building what has become a wonderful, appealing, high quality of life city for people to live and enjoy. There’s no question about it. It behooves City Council and myself to maintain that same quality of life moving into the future, because that’s what our residents demand and deserve.”
Alfin said the population numbers “force me between splitting my efforts in maintaining the beautiful city we have and keeping an eye on what the requirements for the future will be. So the workload becomes double from what my predecessors dealt with.” Palm Coast and Flagler County are both in the midst of rewriting their comprehensive plans, the blueprint for long-term planning and growth. Those plans are bound to take the rapid population increase into account–as well as demographic trends that continue to worry officials.
For all its rapid growth, Flagler County is not cracking the top-10 list the way it often did in the 2000s, when its population was much smaller, so increases translated into big percentage jumps.
The three fastest-growing counties in the country are in Texas–Rockwell, Liberty, Jackson–with growth between 5.7 and 7.6 percent. No Florida county appears among the topm10 fastest growing, though in terms of numeric growth, Polk County had the fifth-largest increase in population among the nation’s 3,100 counties, adding 30,000 people in one year, and now exceeding 818,000. Eight of the 10 other counties with the largest population increases were in Texas.
Nevertheless, four of the five fastest-growing metropolitan areas are in Florida, starting with The Villages, which grew by 4.7 percent between 2023 and 2024, then Lakeland-Winter Haven (3.8 percent), Ocala, and Port St. Lucie. Orlando-Kissimmee and Tampa-St., Petersburg were the fourth-largest gaining metro areas in population (Orlando added 54,916 people, Tampa added 52,000).
Flagler’s 3.7 percent growth ranks it among the top 10 fastest growing counties in the state. In comparison, the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area grew 7.9 percent since the 2020 Census, and 2.2 percent between 2022 and 2023.
Flagler County had a net domestic migration of 5,505 people in 2023 and 6,438 in 2022, suggesting a bit of a slowdown underway that Alfin and Dance attributed to different factors.
“If you look at the building permits from 2023 versus 2022, there are more than 20 percent less,” in 2023, Alfin said. “So fewer people arriving may simply be a function of fewer dwelling units available to house them right now.” He said builders and economists project that all housing under construction locally will be filled.
According to the Flagler County Association of Realtors’ January report, the median price of a house in the county was $380,000, only a few thousand down from its high in 2022, when it topped $400,000 briefly, while the total number of closed sales has decline for seven consecutive months. Houses ae taking longer to get to a contract (two months on average, up from fewer than 10 days two years ago), and the local housing inventory is near a four-year high, with over 1,000 single family houses listed.
“The growth is not as fast as it was post-pandemic, the higher interest rates have played a part,” Dance said, “and in talking to people in the construction industry, the growth has moderated, based first and foremost on the interest rates.”
Endless Dark Money says
we must continue endless growth to infinity or the house of cards will collapse.
Billy says
Will be 200,000 by end 2024.
JimboXYZ says
Article focuses on interest rates as the blame shift. What drove the interest rate increases ? The other “I” word, inflation. This has been a 4 year plan so far & they “want 4 more years, to get the job done”.
So Alfin says the local taxation is going to tax people out of their homes ?
“That’s scary to me because it’s going in the wrong direction,” Alfin, who is himself in the older category, said of the demographic trend. “I have nothing against folks my age, but I recognize that I need people, residents here, who are my daughter’s age.” She tried to settle locally, but got a better offer elsewhere, he said. “If I don’t help turn the tide on an aging-only community, I don’t believe we will be financially sustainable for the long term, because we will tax people out of their houses to pay for an aging infrastructure, which as you know, is aging like our population.”
Tax people out of their houses ? And a younger community will have all this money ? Where did they ever become that wealthy ? certainly not from a totality of a working career. He speaks of he wrong direction, yet it’s the wrong direction as results that he has been the mayor of. The plan ? Is it his & he knows what he’s doing or is he just chasing state funding dollars & hoping for the best, Hail Mary winging it. Because that’s what the article indicates happened, exactly what a growth plan is producing. America in general is getting older, that’s been no secret for years really. It’s been the doom & gloom prediction of when Social Security & Medicare fail & collapse. I think his daughter wanted to stay closer to Alfin here in Flagler, but the reality of life is every bird is pushed out of the nest to fly or crash to the ground. Some birds fly, others break their necks crashing into the Earth.
Greg says
Not sure why we want to increase size to become Daytona,Orlando,Jacksonville. Its a scam
Pogo says
@A sobering truth is seldom welcome
The harvesting/removal of timber/habitat is indeed gloomy. Personally, IMO, a video of Rick Scott unhinging his lower jaw to swallow the entire state would have conveyed the matter more realistically.
Disgusted and sad in Palm Coast says
In reply to JimboXYZ . . .
But there was money for vanity projects such as:
1. Milissa Holland’s failed and failed again AND failed again Holland water park, and money is STILL being spent to fix ix AGAIN as I write this.
2. The tennis center. Failed because it couldn’t sustain itself financially . . . because only tennis players were interested in the facility after screaming about the conditions at the old Players Club.
3. When the tennis center couldn’t sustain itself, GREAT IDEA . . . lets add the Southern Recreation Center and PICKLEBALL, which only a few citizens of Palm Coast are interested in. There’s also the cost of membership which is a deterrent. I know pickleball fanatics here in Palm Coast who’ve told me they plan to continue driving to Holly Hill’s Pictona because it’s not as expensive.
How is the Southern Recreation Center going to sustain itself? I doubt just the tennis players and the pickleball players will be able to sustain it in addition to making any profit to keep the place maintained.
All the above while the infrastructure in Palm Coast is degrading on an alarming daily basis.
We didn’t need 1, 2 or 3 as noted above.
AND THAT’S NOT ENOUGH!!!!
Lets add a “westward expansion” that only Alfin and his real estate friends want. Dollar signs in their eyes. The citizens of Palm Coast don’t want and aren’t interested in westward expansion especially with degrading infrastructure and skyrocketing taxes . . . all driven by Alfin and his real estate buddies.
The roads aren’t going to last another 18 months. While I’m out walking and driving, I see innumerable potholes and cracks across the roads. It’s getting to be dangerous to walk around the block due to the potholes and the fact that the edges of the roads are cracking away from the cracked pavement.
I voted for Alfin the first time. I will not vote for Alfin again. He’s been a complete disaster for Palm Coast.
The simple fact is that Palm Coast is in the middle of nowhere. The reality is that will never be anything other than a retirement community because there’s nothing here in the way of career advancement that a young person would want to stick around for. Plus the pay is abhorrent.
If you want to cut down trees or have one of the innumerable lawn services or a pressure washing business or a painting business, then you might be able to eke out a living, but for a young educated person, there’s no future career advancement. Plus there’s nothing for young career minded adults in Palm Coast.
That’s the reality.
I hope to God that Alfin is voted out and that Jason DeLorenzo goes with him, plus Sandra Shank who’s on the planning board, ANOTHER realtor. I hope we get a level-headed person as mayor who can see the reality of the situation and STOP Alfin’s agenda.
By the way, you have Kathy Austrino running for Palm Coast City Council District 1 (Danko’s seat). ANOTHER realtor. Please think seriously about who you vote for. We don’t need or want any more realtors as mayor of Palm Coast, on the city council, in city management, OR on the planning and zoning boards.
BTW I’ve been here longer than 30 years.
dave says
This is not Flagler, but it does show the growth in Fla. “More than 29,300 people moved to Polk County, according to the U.S. Census Bureau last year. Almost all the growth in Polk County — 88% — consisted of people moving from another part of the U.S. rather than from abroad, according to the 2023 population estimates.” What I see is trees being removed in favor of concrete.
The dude says
Mmmmmm…
Word salad.
Bob Weatherwax says
A horrifying picture of trees lying piled up on the ground instead of upright producing oxygen and ingesting carbon dioxide. The developers will continue their destruction and try to pretend it’s satisfying need not greed but in the long run as Florida’s Waters turn into sewage and garbage piles up everywhere else the cost of human incursion and overpopulation will be retrospectively looked at as possibly we made a mistake? Humans are destroying this planet that is so essential to their existence. It is not the paradise it used to be here in Florida! I’m not sure where people will go for solitude and agriculture has certainly taken a backseat to development but I don’t think we humans are going to wake up anytime soon to what’s going on with this planet. What a shame because our garden of Eden has been right underneath our feet and we just haven’t realized it!
John says
Start recruiting large corporations into Flagler County for employment. Not everyone wants to work in a fast-food restaurant or retail store at min, wage.