By Sven Bölte
The idea that autism is caused by vaccines has recently been revived by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the presumptive nominee for US Secretary of Health and Human Services, as well as by president-elect Donald Trump. When asked about vaccines at a recent press conference, Trump reportedly said there was “something wrong” with rising autism rates, adding: “We’re going to find out about it.”
From a research perspective, there is little left to discover about vaccines used in long-standing nationwide vaccine programmes, such as diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, polio, measles, mumps and rubella. There is strong data from different countries showing that these vaccines do not cause autism or underlie the vast increase in autism diagnosis rates. So why do suspicions that vaccines cause autism remain?
1. Unawareness of evidence
Reliably and accurately communicating research results to the public is difficult. Research results usually stay in small research or clinical communities. Research is rarely accessible and researchers have few incentives to communicate findings outside of their scientific channels.
Popular media is typically superficial and often primarily interested in controversy that generates public attention.
2. Challenges understanding the science
Science is complicated and in medicine there are rarely absolute truths. The public, however, might expect clear consensus or have difficulty grasping the precise nuance of the science and its findings.
Evidence shows that vaccines do not cause autism or are the reason for increasing diagnosis rates. But it is also in the nature of science that it can neither verify nor exclude totally that vaccines contribute to autism in single individuals.
They protect against viruses and bacteria that cause significant levels of death and human suffering. Vaccine programmes thus have a good risk-to-benefit ratio but are not perfect.
3. Doubts of science
The public may have doubts about science and scientists. Science often delivers probabilities and models, not absolute truths.
This might be disappointing or misunderstood as being no better than individual attitudes or opinions. Although not true for vaccines and autism, evidence can be contradictory and difficult to replicate, reinforcing public doubts.
The human need for immediate and simple explanations for complex issues fuels misbelief. The public may also mistrust scientists due to experiences of elitism, reports of researchers not following good scientific practices, and recurring conspiracies that scientists are accomplices of the pharmaceutical industry.
4. Invisible success of vaccine programmes
Vaccination programmes are among the most cost-effective public health interventions available and have averted deaths and long-term disease on a global level in the last decades.
This success has made most diseases invisible in many countries today. The absence of these diseases generates implicit beliefs that vaccinations are unnecessary.
5. Vaccines cause immune reaction
To reach the goal of immunisation, vaccines must cause an immune reaction. Therefore, a transient inconvenient physical reaction is a sign of success, and the logic of vaccination.
This alone might be counterintuitive and feed doubts about vaccinations. Compared to other drugs, only the side-effects are experienced, and the main effect is preventive, not immediately experienced.
6. Parallelism of events
Autism is a neurodevelopmental condition commonly appearing in the first years of life. Initial autistic behaviour may coincide by chance with vaccination time points or follow them and mix with immune reactions.
Making a connection between vaccination and the appearance of autism in these cases is inevitable. But correlation is not causation.
7. Drugs in infancy without an emergency
Ethical issues arise when people make decisions for others regarding drugs or feel coerced to take them. This is particularly true for infancy where parents must consent for their babies.
It can feel intuitively wrong to interfere with nature and invasive to give a series of shots to a fragile human being in early development in the absence of a medical emergency.
8. Actual harms from less-well established vaccines
Benefits and risks cannot be generalised across all vaccines. Vaccines that are part of long-standing vaccination programmes have good evidence to back them, indicating a convincing risk-benefit ratio.
New vaccines are not ensured in the same way. For instance, the swine flu vaccine during the 2009 pandemic is suspected of having caused 1,300 cases of narcolepsy in Europe.
We must distinguish between well-established vaccines and those developed within a short period. It seems that necessary discussions around the safety of less well-established vaccines affect trust in established ones.
Dusan Petkovic/Shutterstock
9. Polarised debate of vaccines
Open societies build on trust, freedom of speech and debate – but also on shared responsibility. Recent years have seen a polarisation of views around many topics, including vaccinations, not at least fuelled by the COVID crisis.
The urgency of the situation and need for solidarity left little space and time for discussion in society and marginalised or stigmatised even moderate sceptics. The latter has surely harmed trust in vaccines more generally.
Sven Bölte is Professor of Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Science at Karolinska Institutet, Sonla, Sweden.
Joe D says
As a Masters prepared Clinical Nurse Specialist and Certified Nurse Case Manager with 43+ years of nursing experience and 18.5 years working for one of the largest Medical systems in the East Coast at a major University Teaching Hospital:
The increasing numbers of autism “diagnoses” in the past decade is in part because of the growing medical RESEARCH knowledge is that Autism is a RANGE of diagnostic behavior syndromes (described as the autism SPECTRUM). Gone are the days when to be diagnosed with Autism, you had to be a child staring into space staring at his shaking hand while ROCKING all day. There is severe autism ( the traditional rocking type) and a range up to the highly FUNCTIONAL autistic diagnosis (Asperger syndrome )…which by the way Elon Musk is diagnosed with (Google it if you don’t believe me)…which explains Musk’s inability to assess social cues, or develop long term PERSONAL relationships. Now there is no one saying Musk isn’t brilliant in his own way…but his brain is WIRED differently (as we’ve seen over the past 5-10 years)!
Those initial studies that suggested that Autism was caused by vaccination administration, have (after years of REPEATED RESEARCH ) to be WRONG. Scientists have challenge the small sample size of the original study, that the study was not RANDOMIZED (as most MODERN valid studies have to be). It was mostly OBSERVATIONAL data ( not automatically wrong in itself, but you have to do it under STRICT guidelines…and those original studies weren’t conducted that way).
So, for those of you who have never SEEN the NEUROLOGICAL damage of someone who has complications from The Measles virus (especially a young child or unborn child of a pregnant mother)…I HAVE! Blindness, severe mental retardation, deafness.
These THOROUGHLY tested and APPROVED vaccines are designed to save THOUSANDS from the Horrible complication of uncontrolled viral epidemics.
For anti-vaccine supporters like RFK Jr. to cast doubt for parents resulting in outbreaks of diseases, we recently THOUGHT were eradicated , but now are returning due to lowered vaccination rates…is unconscionable!
In terms of parental CHOICE…okay, but just because you want to put YOUR child at risk of infection and lifelong disability, doesn’t mean you have the right to infect my GRANDCHILDREN’s classroom!
I’m old enough to have lived through TUBERCULOSIS SANITARIUMS…when there was no cure or quick treatment (you were isolated away in medical compounds for months / years)…both adults and CHILDREN!
I remember IRON LUNGS, which were 1/2 barrel sized metal machines which covered your chest with your head sticking out of it…it breathed for you!
For us to put people in charge of our healthcare that think SCIENCE is the ENEMY…is a TRAVESTY…one we’ll look back in the history books and CONDEMN! Like we think of blood letting for infections and drinking one’s own urine as a cure for diabetes today…they were both considered valid treatments in their day (BEFORE randomized clinical trials).
JimboXYZ says
Uggghhhh, people continue to die for one reason or another, vaccinated or not, same viruses. At the end of the day, it’s anyone’s immune system that fights off virus & disease. At a certain point when is the science of mRNA vaccines just nonsense, that the human race has herd immunity, those that die from a virus/disease, their immune system failed them. Just seems counter to debate when all the science is about diet and yet the food supply is GMO based crap ? I think maybe they’re working too hard & overspending to overcome what the master plan of God’s design for DNA & genetics was as good as it’s going to get with their marketing plans for more profit ? I got a strong(er) suspicion that a lifetime of even the legal drug abuse is also in play on it just the same. At what point is it the alcohol or tobacco, even if it’s in moderation that we’ve all been told is harmless, when it isn’t, is a pollutant that is the silent killer ? And when inflation makes groceries for a better diet harder for the masses, maybe the seeds are being planted by the very institutions claiming science & expertise on the subject ? Every internet snake oil sales pitch is a list of foods that are bad for you. One study eggs will kill you with cholesterol, then the next scientific study and eggs are the next miracle super food. They need to make up their minds, which is it, good for you or bad for you ?
Just me, but if I had to do it all over again, I wouldn’t ever have drank alcohol or been around tobacco for 1st or 2nd hand smoke. Relative addictions that are economic things that were never intended to be consumed for a healthier lifetime. Burning that candle at both ends is a big price to pay.
Laurel says
JimboXYZ: Much of what you say it true. However, my (boomer) generation are the babies of vaccines, and it saved many of us from health disasters, such as polio. The autism situation is comparatively new, especially for the number of children being born with it, ruling out vaccines, but giving good argument for pollution and chemical abuse by corporations. The very companies that told you smoking and drinking were okay. The very companies that told us all that plastics were great. The very companies that don’t want environmental regulations.
You don’t want any vaccines, fine. I want my choice.
Ed P says
What is causing the elevated rates of autism?
To accept greater awareness, improved diagnostic criteria, or enhanced screening as an answer still leaves 1 in 100 children worldwide without a solution. 85% of these children will in all likelihood remain unemployed as adults. Answers are needed not tallying the casualties.
DaleL says
The story has very good points. However, Sven Bölte left out one issue which I think is pertinent. The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an issue with vaccines. Highly promoted vaccines for adults and the elderly are frequently not as effective as promoted. Examples are:
The latest shingles vaccine: CDC states on the CDC website: “Vaccination is over 90% effective at preventing shingles.” A large scale “…study found 2 doses were 76% effective against shingles.” Kaiser Permanente-led analysis
At a minimum, the CDC is overselling the vaccine. Vaccine skeptics go further.
Just recently, my wife’s cousin, fully vaccinated, came down with shingles. It seems to run in her family as my wife, my wife’s sister, and their father, all at one point have had shingles. My family, to my knowledge have not.
Influenza vaccines are even worse. The CDC found that the 2024 flu vaccine was just 42% effective.
The latest is the RSV vaccine. Just about every person alive has been exposed to RSV as a child. The RSV vaccine is promoted for the elderly on the basis that their immune systems may have “forgotten” this disease.
As Sven Bölte wrote: “Vaccines cause immune reaction”. Repeated “boosters” can cause a hyper-immune reaction. For example this is my personal testimonial. I got the Moderna COVID vaccine. The second shot caused a greater reaction than the first. The first booster in the summer was worse. The next booster, recommended for the over 70 age group, gave me a fever that peaked at 103 degrees. I skipped a couple of recommended boosters after that. To my knowledge, I have not gotten COVID.
It is my opinion that the repeated promotion of adult vaccines is done with good intentions, but it is causing many adults to become skeptical of vaccines. That skepticism then is transferred to vital childhood vaccines.
Laurel says
DaleL: Yeah, but also consider that 70%-90% effectiveness. I’ll take it. Since you have family members who have had shingles, you know it’s awful! I had it as a teen, under a lot of stress, and though it was a very small patch on my back, it was untouchable! Very painful. My sympathy to your family. Nearly all of us have had chicken pox, so the 70%-90% sounds pretty good!
So, I think you are correct when you state that adults with bad experiences become skeptical. But you and I both know that misinformation and conspiracy theories can be deadly.
shelly says
My body, my choice. Isn’t that right?
DaleL says
Yep, and you can ride a motorcycle without a helmet also.
However, it is not your choice to deny lifesaving medical treatment or preventive vaccines from people in your care (children).
Laurel says
Shelly: Absolutely! Just make sure you keep your distance from those who may be vulnerable like cancer patients, right?
Bobby says
RFK Jr. is not a professional physician and if your smart only listen to actual professional medical personnel, which is not RFK, Jr. He has worms in his brain and has been shooting up heroin for years. He cannot be trusted with anyone’s health not even his own.
You would think Trump would want actual qualified people in his cabinet but instead he only has chosen the ones that will kiss his ring forever no matter how it actual harms the American people.
Laurel says
The longer the public believes it’s vaccines that are the problem, the better it is for corporations that pollute, misuse chemicals and lie about the safeness of their products. Pretty simple, actually. It’s all bean counting for them. Your kids matter about as much to them as lung cancer did to cigarette companies.
Joe D says
For Shelly:
Your body, your choice works until your “choice” spreads a deadly disease to those: with weaker immune systems, children too young for a particular vaccine, or someone with multiple heath complications ( heart disease/cancer/ diabetes /obesity /chronic lung disease and smoking).
Now if you can PROVE early detection, and you PROMISE to isolate yourself away from vulnerable individuals if you’re infected, so you can’t SPREAD it, then FINE, but we all know THAT’s never going to happen!
BillC says
So disappointing to see so many don’t believe in science, in vaccinations, confusing correlation with causation- roosters don’t cause sunrise.
Jake from state farm says
@JoeD.. With all that experience you probably remember when science said blood letting was the way to go. The thing is with “science” … it needs to be questioned and continued to be proven. When you can admit that healthcare and “medicines / Pharma” have become just big business and more concerned with profits than the well being of people, you will have some credibility.
Joe D says
To Jake from State Farm:
You are 100% correct when you comment on BIG Pharma and “pricing/gouging” consumers ….
HOWEVER you are TOTALLY incorrect on the RESEARCH and the SCIENTISTS behind them!
And, as to my reference to bloodletting and Diabetics drinking their own urine in centuries past? There were no variable controlled STUDY criteria for treatment back then ( which we have/ require NOW)…back then, treatments were “SHOTS in the dark.”…..PUN INTENDED!
Sherry says
No Shelly. . . It is NOT your choice when it comes to walking around with a disease that can be spread to others. It’s NOT your choice when it comes to driving while intoxicated or smoking in many places. We “share” public spaces on this planet and you still have a legal and moral responsibility to act “in the common good”!
Thank you Joe D !!!
Jake from state farm says
Joe D…
We should question science. Science itself is built on questioning, testing, and refining our understanding of the world. Scientific progress happens because people ask questions, challenge existing ideas, and seek better explanations through evidence and experimentation. Real science welcomes scrutiny. I do not care how much testing has been done. You admit that the the Pharma has become about money. You don’t think that those doing the testing can not be influenced, or be part of big Pharma? If you answer no then you are living under a rock.
Skibum says
Jake wants us to believe that “big pharma” and scientific/medical research are one in the same, when there is little truth or substance to that cherry-picked tidbit. Sure, pharmaceutical companies do their own research and offer their own drugs often at very high prices which they claim are warranted for the extensive research that went into them, but we have many, many expert medical researchers and scientists working on drugs and vaccines who are not aligned with any specific pharmaceutical company, and working specifically for the good of all of us. Dr. Fauci and the vast team of medical researchers at the Centers for Disease Control is but one example of the fine research work that has been going on for decades right here in the U.S. Does anyone believe that Dr. Fauci was making multiple millions of dollars from his decades long career of developing drugs, vaccines and strategies to end some of the world’s most hideous diseases? Not by a long shot!