By Michael Traugott
President-elect Donald Trump won Michigan in the 2024 election, an important prize in his decisive victory.
The state has earned its title as a swing state. After narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016, Trump lost the state to President Joe Biden in 2020, and now Trump has narrowly won it again.
Michigan has the largest population of Arabs, Muslims and Palestinians in the United States, currently numbering more than 200,000.
Back during the primary in February 2024, a group called Listen to Michigan organized the uncommitted campaign in the state, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s support of Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
More than 100,000 Michigan voters picked “uncommitted” instead of Biden during the Democratic primary.
I am a Michigan-based political scientist who studies campaigns, elections and polling. I was interested to see how that protest vote during the primary would carry over into the general election.
But let me first explain why such a small group of voters matters.
Recent voting patterns in Michigan
Michigan has been a swing state in the past three presidential elections, and each time the elections have been incredibly close.
In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 10,674 votes out of almost 4.8 million cast – a razor-thin margin of just 0.23%. At the time, his success was attributed to the Clinton campaign’s lack of attention to Michigan in terms of visits and advertising.
Biden learned from this in organizing his 2020 campaign, advertising more heavily and making more visits to the state in what turned out to be a winning strategy.
But as he organized his 2024 reelection campaign, Biden faced the headwinds of low approval ratings, mostly brought on by lingering economic pain related to the COVID-19 shutdowns. Although the unemployment rate had come down significantly by 2023, consumers were still feeling the pinch.
Then on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas initiated a violent attack on Israel, and Biden expressed strong support for Benjamin Netanyahu as the Israeli Prime Minister initiated an aggressive response in Gaza. Even as the number of civilian casualties grew dramatically, Biden remained steadfast in his support.
Five months later, Michigan held its presidential primaries on Feb. 27.
The impact of the Middle East conflict
To protest the administration’s position, Arab Americans organized a national Uncommitted Movement.
Just over 100,000 uncommitted ballots were cast in Michigan’s 2024 Democratic primary – about 13.2% of the vote. The greatest number came from Wayne County, the most populous in the state and home to many Arab Americans living in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck and the surrounding areas. In the previous three campaign cycles, about 2% of voters chose uncommitted.
Biden made no public effort to engage with Arab American leaders in Wayne County before he withdrew from the contest, or after. The Kamala Harris campaign did some outreach but mostly in private.
Leaders of some Arab American groups advocated not voting for Harris because of the administration’s position on Gaza and Lebanon. Others suggested voting for third party candidates.
At the same time, Trump made multiple visits to Arab American groups during the general election campaign. He used his daughter Tiffany’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American, as a surrogate. The mayors of Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights endorsed Trump.
AP Photo/David Goldman
Did it swing Michigan?
The returns from municipalities with significant Arab American populations show how much they shifted Trump’s way.
In 2020, the Biden-Harris team had won almost 69% of the vote in Dearborn. In 2024, Harris got just 36% – with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, taking 18%.
In Dearborn Heights, Trump defeated Harris by 44% to 38%. Stein received 15% of the vote.
In just these two communities, plus Hamtramck, Trump received 50,332 votes.
Trump ran a strong campaign in 2024, with almost 2,500 counties nationwide, including 82 of 83 in Michigan, shifting more Republican. He won all of the seven swing states.
In the swing state of Michigan, Harris’ inability to win over Arab Americans played a small but significant role in allowing Trump to win by 80,618 votes.
Michael Traugott is Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Pogo says
@Michael Traugott
Brilliant — have a potato.
JimboXYZ says
For something that has been going on officially for a year plus now. What Biden-Harris couldn’t accomplish in the Middle East, that tips any voters to the side that had peace in the Middle East. Anyone that is tired of reading about the next attack & counter strike against the innocent victims of Hamas & Iran that backs them is voting for the candidate that:
1. Didn’t directly or indirectly fund the instigators of the attack. Send Iran $ 6 billion dollars and like any economic stimulus for retail economy, that “war” stimulus is going to trigger the effort to start a war. Iran got what they bought & paid for, so did Biden-Harris. Just as Obama-Biden sent plane loads of cash to Iran. Those facts withstanding, I doubt anyone would vote Harris-Walz as the next chapter of Biden-Harris. Trump-Vance won’t officially be in power until 3rd week of January to get anything done. That’s life when the politicians are taking credit & keeping score of who did what, got accomplished & success rates. If the Israeli-Palestinians want Biden to get any credit, they’ll cease fire until January 20-ish. It’s not an end to the war, but at least both sides ride out the remainder of the Biden-Harris experiment/mistake with fewer/no more casualties. Then Trump-Vance is on the clock to end anything or broker an additional cease fire situation. It’s like a home improvement project with a contractor. Until that contract is ironclad, nothing will get done. Agree to terms and you’d be surprised at what gets done. Lamenting why anyone voted Trump vs Harris over this is beating a dead horse. People vote for results, one had the Middle East in relative peace, the one that lost 2024, she was part of ineffective with a full blown war they funded. Regardless of what Biden says where the funding for Hamas attacks came from. Human nature is when someone gets a check/money, they spend it. Whether it’s a direct dollar for dollar application of funds, the fact that $ 6 billion more was sent to Iran, that freed up other sources or even the very source of funding for a random strike/attack. Imagine if Hamas went to the LGBTQI fest at Town Center & started taking hostages, murdering & raping others during the Biden-Harris watch after B-H sent $ 6 billion to Iran. Would anyone connect those dots ?
The dude says
They’ve gone native.
Voted against their own people’s best interests because they can’t get 100% of what they want… like toddlers.
What’s more American than that?
All that follows now in Gaza, is on them. Ukraine and Taiwan as well.
Deborah Coffey says
Trump says on Day 1 he will reinstitute the Muslim ban, calling Muslims terrorists. And, we know he likes to shoot protesters in the legs. He also loves his fellow criminal, Bibi Netanyahu (“Do whatever you have to do,” Trump said in a phone call with Bibi). All these Arab Americans may be very sorry very soon for all their idealistic protesting. They couldn’t see that Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden.
The dude says
And now they get exactly what they voted for. Bibi off the chain.