By Jared McDonald
Now that Super Tuesday is over and the Democratic and Republican nominees are all but officially chosen, as everyone expected, voters can turn the page to the general election.
But they’re not excited about it, and they haven’t been for months.
A September 2023 Monmouth University poll showed no more than 40% of Americans said they were “enthusiastic” for either Biden or Trump to run again. That same month, the Pew Research Center found that 65% of Americans were exhausted with the current state of American politics. In February 2024, The New York Times said Democrats in particular were burned out by the seemingly endless avalanche of political crises.
You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa.
It is not surprising that a rematch of the 2020 election is failing to inspire excitement in the American people. Yet, as a political scientist who studies citizen engagement and the public’s feelings toward the candidates, I find these trends disturbing. It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise – it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.
There is another divide in politics
Most discussions of the current state of the American electorate have understandably focused on political polarization. Democrats and Republicans often express disdain for each other, even when they don’t actually disagree on specific policies for the nation to pursue.
Some of this disdain is rooted in identity. For example, people who hold unfavorable attitudes toward African Americans, feminists and other groups associated with the Democratic Party tend to identify more strongly with the Republican Party. People with unfavorable attitudes toward stereotypically Republican groups such as evangelicals and gun owners tend to be stronger Democrats.
From this perspective, Democrats and Republicans are pack animals motivated to protect their group and their group’s interests.
Often overlooked, however, is how the vitriol of modern American politics fuels what political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan call “The Other Divide.” This is the divide between people who engage in politics and those who don’t.
In short, a significant number of Americans don’t talk about politics, whether because they are not interested in politics or are turned off by the negativity. It’s a gradual trend dating back to the 1980s and 1990s that has continued for decades now. This weakens the fabric of democracy, because the only voices that are heard online and in the media are from those who are most willing to speak up. They tend to be the most dissonant and extreme views.
The public discussion about the country’s past, present and future therefore leaves out a wide range of people’s voices. What they might say is hard to know, specifically because they don’t engage in political discussions.
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
Young voter disengagement
Especially troubling to me is the political disillusionment expressed by young people, who are the most likely group in the country to avoid identifying themselves as members of one party or the other. People who identify themselves as independents – especially if they don’t lean toward one party or the other – are also likely to lack interest in voting.
Having come of age during an era of high polarization, younger people are less likely to idealize politics and the right to vote. In prior research, my colleagues and I found that younger people worldwide were just as interested in politics as older citizens but were less likely to view voting as a civic duty. Protesting or joining an organization offers social benefits to young people – an opportunity to feel like they are part of something bigger. Voting, by contrast, is perceived as a more solitary act.
If younger American voters aren’t excited about the choices on the ballot, they may be more likely not to vote at all.
In a recent survey I conducted in collaboration with IGNITE National, an organization seeking to bolster young women’s engagement in the political process, we asked Gen Z Americans, adults born after 1996, what drove their disillusionment with American politics. Consistently, Gen Z respondents noted that the candidates appearing on the ballot did not look like them, contributing to their feeling of detachment from the political process.
Barack Obama’s race made 2008 a historic election. Hillary Clinton’s gender made 2016 a historic contest as well. By contrast, 2024 features the two oldest white men to ever seek the presidency, vying for second terms in office.
Burnout’s effects on democracy
Americans have many demands on their time. Between work, family and other activities, many struggle to watch or read the news, fact check what they see on social media or engage in productive political discussions. As a result, most of the American public is largely unaware of key aspects of important issues, and does not pay attention to the parties’ stances on those issues.
This lack of engagement is dangerous for democracy. Voters who cannot evaluate the merits of contrasting policy positions, or who cannot accurately assign blame and give credit for the state of the American economy, will ultimately fall back on cheap cues such as partisanship to make their choices.
Or they may abstain from politics altogether.
The campaign season offers an opportunity for voters who may be open to persuasion to engage in the political process for a short period of time, become sufficiently informed and make their voices heard. Though there are flaws in the many processes of political campaigning, media coverage and community involvement, the bottom line is simple: Deliberative democracy requires an American public that is willing to deliberate.
If Americans are too burned out to engage enthusiastically and provide feedback to political leaders, then there is little hope that any government could truly reflect the will of the people.
Jared McDonald is Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of Mary Washington.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Pogo says
@Jared McDonald
President Trump will make your boo boo all better.
“Gratitude is one of the greatest Christian virtues; ingratitude, one of the most vicious sins.”
— Billy Graham
JimboXYZ says
Considering that we’ve put up with 3+ years of inflation & Biden failing to deliver on anything that wasn’t handed to him, he even botched that up too. One really has to wonder how many immigrants will end up with ballots to vote. That truth will be exposed by massive increase in a November 2024 election vote counts. We’ll get to see the difference in 2024 from the reported 2020 vote counts of 81+ & 74+ million votes. One expects +/- 155+ million votes for 2024. Just in reference, 2020 had an increase of 27-28 million votes. 2016 there was 66+ million for HRC, Trump had 62+ million votes. We’re going to see the effect of Biden-Harris open borders beyond just the Fentanyl & billions (perhaps even trillions) Immigrant Aid that the homeless of America don’t qualify for in the popular vote counts ?
In case you haven’t noticed, gasoline is back up to $ 3.49+/gallon for 87 octane grade or better. Normalizing Bidenomics price gouging is not affordable & sustainable. And unless wars are the true direction of mankind & the USA for prosperity, Biden can’t be an improvement for the masses in that brand of mismanaged poverty.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Nephew Of Uncle Sam says
Yadda, Yadda, Yadda, again. Guess you didn’t see last nights State of The Union Jimbo, where he presented and called out searchable facts and called out the GOP led House on many items that even Johnson was nodding his head up and down to. Again the gas price is not set by the President, in most cases it’s the economy, when the economy is doing well gas price goes up.
Ray W. says
Thank you, Nephew of Uncle Sam.
I wish to supplement your argument that a strong American economy can impact gasoline prices in Flagler County, though I agree with you point that America’s economy is undoubtedly strong today and growing stronger.
What if crude oil is an international commodity? Could the international marketplace impact Flagler County gasoline prices?
I argue that international decisions do impact what we locally pay for gasoline.
When Russia invaded the Ukraine, and when economic sanctions initiated by the U.S. and the EU were placed on the sale of Russian crude oil, could that impact international crude oil prices?
And, dating from February 2021, when the then-thirteen OPEC member nations voted to cut crude oil production, could that also impact international crude oil prices?
And, when OPEC repeatedly voted to either further cut or extend prior cuts to group production, could this also impact international crude oil prices?
Today, Saudi Arabia has the infrastructure to export 12 million barrels of crude oil per day. Today, via voluntary and intentional production cuts, Saudi Arabia exports roughly nine million barrels of crude oil today. Is Saudi Arabia intentionally manipulating the international crude oil marketplace for its own economic best interests?
Does JimboXYZ know these things? If he does, then is he being disingenuous when he blames Biden for higher gasoline prices? Is he intentionally trying to mislead FlaglerLive readers? Does he personify the “pestilential” partisan member of faction that James Madison warned against as the greatest domestic danger to our liberal democratic Constitutional republic?
If JimboXYZ doesn’t know these things, why not? How can anyone not know that Russia invaded the Ukraine? That the west placed economic sanctions on Russian oil? That OPEC has, for the past three years, consistently maintained a reduced level of crude oil production for domestic profit?
Should anyone give any credence to JimboXYZ’s comments on the current price of gasoline?
Ray W. says
I applaud JimboXYZ for looking up total vote counts in the past two presidential elections in his effort to draw a conclusion explaining why Biden so badly beat Trump in the popular vote. Thank you for your effort.
Several widely divergent points can be drawn from those vote totals.
First, election vote totals can widely vary from presidential election to presidential election. A quick search yielded the following facts.
In 1980, 54.2% of the electorate voted.
In 1984, 55.2% voted.
In 1988, 52.8% voted.
In 1992, 58.1% voted.
In 1996, 51.7% voted.
In 2000, 54.2 voted.
In 2004, 60.1% voted.
In 2008, 61.6% voted.
In 2012, 58.6% voted.
In 2016, 57.3% voted.
In 2020, 66.6% voted.
What broad conclusions can be drawn by these percentages? Does voter turnout vary? Does it on occasion swing significantly from election to election?
Second, there can be little question that the 2020 voter turnout was unusually high. Was it high because of the divisiveness of the campaigns? The divisiveness of a candidate? Were tensions high among factions prior to the vote? Did many voters turn out to vote against one particular candidate more than to vote against the other? Or, as the losing candidate so often claims, was the overall vote manipulated in some way?
Accepting the argument that the election is some way was stolen (an unproven allegation), can the question be raised that Trump supporters were the only ones who engaged in widespread ballot stuffing/fraud? Or did Biden supporters unilaterally do so? Or did both factions stuff ballot boxes? Did neither faction stuff ballot boxes?
Third, one form of reasoning supports the position that Trump supporters did attempt to steal the 2020 election. January 6th fully supports that position. The fake electors scandal fully supports that position. JimboXYZ’s inability to comprehend and convey factually accurate information supports that position. There is no question but that Trump supporters had sufficient incentive to attempt to steal an election in 2021. Why couldn’t that incentive exist in 2020? But that position still remains as flawed as the one that posits that Biden supporters attempted to steal the election.
The greater unanswered question is whether the capacity of either or both factions to steal an election fully explains why over 27 million more voters turned out to vote in all 50 states in 2020, compared to 2016? Fraud on the scale of 27 million additional votes defies credulity! Just look at how it has to be done. It can’t be done in just one state. It can’t be done in the six “swing” states. It has to be spread out over all 50 states. But what would be the incentive to commit fraud on that scale?
There is relatively little incentive to attempt to steal a statewide election in Oklahoma, because Republicans are almost always going to win the statewide vote no matter what; the factional gap is just too big. Yes, a popular Democrat might close the gap somewhat, but the gap remains too big. All of the Oklahoma electoral college votes are going to Trump no matter what. Why would people commit voter fraud to ensure that Oklahoma’s electoral college votes are going to Trump?
Likewise, there is little incentive to attempt to steal a statewide election in California, because Democrats are almost always going to win any statewide vote no matter what. All the California electoral college votes are going to go to Biden, no matter what.
In forty-four states, the factional gap is just too wide to incentivize any attempt to steal a statewide vote, because the electoral college votes are going to go to the factional candidate who controls the state.
The only reasonably explained incentive to steal statewide electoral college votes exists in the six so-called “swing” states, where the partisan gap is relatively small. And after the 2020 the Trump coalition actually argued that the attempt to steal occurred on a smaller scale, claiming that the steal was occurring only in certain counties, yet over 27 million more people voted nationwide. The only way to explain why so many more millions of voters turned out nationwide is to accept that 27 million more people, give or take a small number from those states where there is an incentive to steal electoral college votes, actually turned out to vote. Yes, normal population growth, fueled primarily by immigrants, accounts for some 12 million or so more potential voters in the four years between elections. As an aside, in Florida, despite claims to the contrary, fewer that 30 people were charged with engaging in election fraud of various types in the 2020 election and many of those who were charged were registered as Republicans. Did Democrats pick up five votes or six, statewide, based on these findings? Just about every hand recount of the 2020 elections had Biden picking up votes! If statewide voting fraud existed, it seems that it repeatedly favored Trump.
To me, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump excited very many voters in 2016. That is why only 57.3% of the electorate turned out in 2016, a percentage below that from the previous three elections. But Trump turned out to be quite the divisive figure in the 2020 election, arguably the most divisive figure in my lifetime. Millions more electors turned out to vote, mostly against him. And when he lost, his supporters began demanding to know when they could begin to behead Democrats, or slit throats, or crush vermin, which without doubt is an extreme form of divisiveness.
I am curious, though, JimboXYZ. When you claim that illegal immigrants are voting, why would they vote against Trump? It has been widely reported, and Trump himself has repeatedly claimed, that the Spanish speaking populace swung toward him in 2020. What proof do you have that establishes that illegal immigrants today would automatically vote for Biden? If, in 2020, a statistically quantifiable portion of the 45 million foreign born residents in the country swung toward Trump, why wouldn’t a significant portion of the 49 million foreign born people residing in the country at the end of 2023 swing their vote to Trump in 2024?
On your other point, when you say Biden was “handed” certain economic conditions, just what do you mean by that? Was he handed a heavily damaged economy in 2021, one decimated by an unprecedented pandemic? Was the entire world’s economy devastated by the pandemic at the same time? Was every nation in uncharted fiscal territory? Did almost every government in the world respond by engaging in deficit spending by adopting stimulus packages. Did Trump’s signing of the two stimulus packages, totaling $2.9 trillion, save our domestic economy from further destruction? Did the enormous deficit spending trigger inflation? (it did) Did the additional stimulus packages signed by Biden accelerate the onset of the Trump-era inflation? (they did) Is the better term Trudenflation, as opposed to Bidenflation? (it is) Is the overall strong long-term economic recovery as it exists today better described as Trudenomics, as opposed to Bidenomics? (it is)
Laurel says
Ray W: You are my new BFF! :)
Ray W. says
Thank you, Laurel. Keep up your commenting, please. I encourage conservative commenters. I encourage liberal commenters. I look forward to reading your comments. FlaglerLive readers need perspectives of all kinds. I have seen so many excellent perspectives from so many commenters over the past few years, irregardless of whether I agree with them or even accept the grammar lessons. Some of the snarky comments are the best.
Laurel says
Ray W.: Since you enjoy snark, allow me to snark a tad.
The economy is so bad, that, today, we had to wait in one of two, long lines to check out of Lowe’s Garden Center. The second line was three times as long as ours, and made it nearly to the orchid table (people tend to follow people no matter what), so we wondered if we were in the correct bread line. We were saddened to find that parking was a challenge, being it the “hell” Trump told us we were in, but we prevailed.
Woe is we!
You’re welcome. :)
The dude says
Not the tribal old MAGAs here in Flagler… they love this crap.
They’re excited at the prospect of 8 more months and have the sadz that it’s not longer.
DaleL says
I’m burned out and tired of all this. I’ll paraphrase what Jon Stewart said a few weeks ago on Comedy Central’s Daily Show, “Have we saved Democracy yet?” In 2020, I was sick of Donald Trump. Biden promised a trip back to normalcy. His spokespeople implied in late 2019 that because of his age, he would be a one term president. Election 2020 was worse than I could imagine. The January 6th insurrection was treason. Republican “leaders” spoke forcefully about accountability, et cetera, et cetera, blah, blah, blah. Within 48 hours amnesia began to set in. By the time of the Senate impeachment trial, Republicans were lining right back up for their mob leader.
What of the Democrats, one might ask? Faced with this unprecedented assault on Democracy, with their narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, did they pass a law banning Mr. Trump from the ballot? Nope, they did not. Did the Justice Department move swiftly to bring the guilty, including Mr. Trump to justice? Again, no. State courts such as Georgia also moved with a plodding pace. It is now years later and only now in an election year, is Mr. Trump finally facing possible justice. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is continuing to fund raise off their failure to “Save Democracy”.
This is the text of one of the many emails that now go to my spam folder:
“We asked this morning.
We asked this afternoon.
Now we’re asking a THIRD time — because we desperately need your help.
President Biden is COUNTING on us here at Democratic HQ to restore our House Majority to protect AND build on his legacy.
While Republicans rely on mega-donors to boost their campaigns, we (and President Biden!) are relying on THIS grassroots team to power House Democrats to victory.
So any time we’re outraised by Republicans, we risk letting Joe down.
That’s why we’re coming to you and asking humbly for your help: Please, can you chip in $3 or whatever you can spare to help us WIN back our House Majority for President Biden and defeat House Republicans across the country?”
How about WE (all Americans) let both Joe and Donald down? How about we all keep OUR money and spend it on ourselves, our friends, our family, or our charity of choice. Then in November, we hold our noses and vote for the lessor of the two evils.
Nephew Of Uncle Sam says
Well then Dale the lessor of the two evils would be Voting for Democracy and not autocracy. Welcome aboard.
Endless Dark Money says
if you care about the economy vote democrat
if you care about other people vote democrat
if you care about personal freedom vote democrat
if you prefer a racist with diarrhea of the mouth that makes everything divisive vote republican
if you want more tax cuts for multi-millionaires vote republican.
Orange jesus just wants to avoid prison for his 99 felonies. Don’t let the rcons or desantis intimidation police from stopping your vote. Kick these gop career criminals to curb!
Deborah Coffey says
Plato — ‘One of the penalties of refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.’
dave says
8 more months and then registered Citizens get to vote on the best of the worst. It just proves in this country these days, being President doesn’t appear to be the top GOVT job anymore. A lot of Congressional and State blow hard leaders talk a big game but just a handful have the guts to step up and try. But with a rabid do nothing Congress, we have NO Congress these days, being President well is not all that attractive.. Well to one narcissistic all about #1 guy, its a Dictatorship.
Jackson says
91 Felony count Agolf Twittler has been ranked #1 worst president EVER.
Please vote accordingly.
hippy says
I am looking forward to 8 more months and then 4 years of liberal melt downs. The melt down in the comments above are just a start. 9-0 decision… and the melt down trying to explain it was really 5-4 has been classic.