By
In less than a week, the Taliban has captured nearly a dozen key cities in Afghanistan. With the departure of US forces, it is poised to take over the country from the embattled Afghan government.
Over the past 20 years, the US has poured trillions of dollars into Afghanistan to oust the Taliban, an effort that was clearly unsuccessful. But a look at the country’s strategic geographic location and the politics of the region (including support for the Taliban) tells us that this outcome was inevitable.
Afghanistan is strategically located between central and south Asia – a region rich in oil and natural gas. It has also struggled with efforts by different Afghanistan-based ethnic groups to create ancestral homelands. The Pashtun population (and to a lesser extent the Baluch population) are particularly implicated in this.
For these and other reasons, Afghanistan has long faced constant meddling from the Soviet Union/Russia, UK, the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and of course, Pakistan.
Pakistan
Afghanistan’s relationship with Pakistan has been fraught with tension ever since the former was recognised as a sovereign state in 1919.
When Pakistan gained its independence in 1947, Afghanistan was the sole country to vote against its formation in the United Nations. Some of the tension emanated from Afghanistan’s refusal to recognise the Durand Line – the hastily drawn 1,600 mile border that cut across thousands of Pashtun tribes in 1893.
Fearing calls from Pashtuns in both countries to create a national homeland that would cut through North Pakistan, Pakistan has long sought to turn Afghanistan into an Islamic client state – supporting an Islamic identity (over a Pashtun one) in Afghanistan to gain strategic depth against India.
Pakistan helped to empower the Taliban in 1994 and has been Afghanistan’s most involved neighbor. Through its top intelligence agency the ISI, it has has bankrolled Taliban operations, recruited manpower to serve in Taliban armies and helped to plan and arm offensives. It has also occasionally been involved in direct combat support. The ISI’s support for the Taliban was rooted in its aim to erase Pashtun nationalism. But in doing so it may have created a bigger problem for Pakistan, as Taliban rule has led to an exodus of Afghan citizens into Pakistan.
Nevertheless, according to the Afghan government, there are elements within Pakistan’s government, namely the ISI, that still support the Taliban, and ongoing instability in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Pakistan does not have a good relationship with other groups in Afghanistan, so it has little choice but to support the Taliban.
For Pakistan’s government, a worst-case scenario is a protracted conflict, which could lead to another large spillover of refugees into Pakistan.
Iran
Iran’s relationship with Afghanistan, which borders it to the east, is also complicated by regional dynamics and its relationship with the US. As a Shia country, Iran has had long ideological differences with the Taliban. In the 1990s, it sought to make alliances, including with the US, to counter the threat from the Taliban.
But two decades later, US relations with Iran are at an all-time low, affecting Iran’s stance on how to deal with the Taliban. Iran has mostly been hedging its bets — supporting both the Afghan government and the Taliban to keep them divided. And improved relations with Qatar – home to the Taliban’s political office – have also helped Iran’s relationship with the Taliban.
Russia and China
Russia is mostly concerned with preventing instability at its border with Afghanistan, and with keeping Afghanistan free of US influence. Since the 1990s Moscow has been developing relations with different groups in Afghanistan, including the Taliban, despite misgivings about the Taliban’s possible support for terror groups.
These relations intensified after the emergence of Islamic State in 2015. In the fight to defeat IS in Afghanistan, Russia saw the Taliban’s interests coincide with its own.
Reports surfaced that Russia was arming the Afghan Taliban and directly undermining US efforts there, even paying bounties to kill US and allied soldiers. US intelligence has since expressed low confidence in the bounty claims.
China, meanwhile, has always maintained cordial relations with the Taliban. China’s main concern is with extending its influence westward to gain strategic depth against India and the US.
New alliances
For the moment, the rise of the Taliban has not translated into a rise in terrorist activity from groups like al-Qaeda against Afghanistan’s neighbors – a concern of the US pulling out of the region. Sensing the inevitability of the Taliban’s ascension, opportunistic alliances have formed with almost all of Afghanistan’s neighbors with the Taliban, except for India.
India has been mostly reluctant to engage with the Taliban, but recently initiated contact, supported by Qatar. However, New Delhi has also made clear it will not support a violent overthrow of Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital – not yet controlled by the Taliban.
Currently, the beleaguered Afghan government claims that its neighbors are being too sanguine about the Taliban, its ability to reform and whether it will help Afghanistan achieve stability. Senior Afghan officials have warned that a Taliban victory will result in a consolidation of power of various terrorist groups if the Taliban allows them to set up a base to launch attacks.
More important than the Taliban’s hospitality is its willingness to allow terror groups to engage freely in organized crime – Afghanistan an attractive location for this as well.
The Taliban’s resurgence has created an acute humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan alongside terrible human rights abuses. Amid the chaos, the prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, has accused the US of leaving behind a “mess”.
And yet, while many may criticize US President Joe Biden for pulling forces out, there is little likelihood, given all these regional forces at work, that the US could ever have achieved stability in Afghanistan – no matter how long it stayed.
Natasha Lindstaedt is Professor at the Department of Government, University of Essex.
Major Cronin says
NUKE AFGHANISTAN NOW or we will be fighting the terrorist on our soil in 2 months. They are already heading towards are OPEN BORDER . Keep watching the News, the Beheadings will start by Thanksgiving.
Weldon B. Ryan says
The US was like an unpleasant house guest that didn’t want to leave or didn’t know when to leave. A house guest that even if you said you can handle the dishes they insisted they got it then Broke it! The Pro American faction of Americans will grunt and say we lost soldiers bla, bla, bla , if Trump was President, not recognizing that thousands of innocent Afghanistans died in their home country and was displaced on false pretenses. We didn’t invade the Saudi’s of Pakastan! Why? Why not? The reason the Taliban took the country so fast was that the guest is leaving and the Taliban can get their room back. Their wait to get back to their culture and way of life is back. I’m very sorry for American Soldiers dying for nothing but politics, false acertion of righteousness and Arms sales. Star Trek’s Prime Directive was disobeyed again by the US.
Jimbo99 says
Is this some kind of pass for Biden-Harris ? 20 years in Afghanistan and Biden-Harris has it back to pre-9/11/2001, speaking of that, the 20th anniversary is next month. Let’s see in 7 months since 1/21/2021, he’s found a way to create a Mid-East Crisis and now the Taliban are retaking Afghanistan. The border is still a crisis, the virus isn’t under control. America can’t afford 3 more years of this doddering old fool and his cackling sidekick. And don’t even get me started on a re-election effort of this mistake.
Greg says
Finally, you write something g I totally agree with. They have been fighting for a thousand years. Russia pulled out after only a short time, realizing it was a no win. America was too stupid to realize that you can’t win there. Let the country alone. America needs to concentrate on its own problems, which are many. America can no longer afford to be the worlds police and savior. Pull out troops home from all over the world. Let the world control itself. Realize that China will soon control the world, as America has pissed away all its money and respect.
Cary says
Biden owns this.
mark101 says
The Russians found that out also. Dec 24, 1979 – Feb 15, 1989. About 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, and about 35,000 were wounded.
David Schaefer says
Interesting that a lot of lawmakers and other people are Blaming pres Biden for all of this. No matter if we stayed 6mo, 1 year or 5 more years the result would have not changed. The Afghan army was a joke from the beginning , just remember folks all the war started with Bush and ended with Biden. Last year Trump promised that by the end of summer we would get our troops out of there. As expected Trump lied and the Taliban had more than a year to build up their forces so this is the result.
Skibum says
Unfortunately, our nation’s leaders need to once again relearn the same important lesson – STOP trying to do nation building in far flung countries with completely different cultures and governments than ours. This is especially true in a country such as Afghanistan, where infighting among it’s many tribes have been going on for centuries. We fell into the same old trap that we got ourselves into in Vietnam. Our military should have been allowed to extricate our forces from Afghanistan once their primary mission had been accomplished and Osama Bin Laden had been located and killed (in Pakistan, no less). But no, instead our brilliant leaders embarked on another long-term 20-year military misadventure that cost America billions of dollars to train an entire Afghan military, more than 600,000 soldiers strong over those 20 years. We spent enormous resources building infrastructure, and most importantly, we lost thousands of U.S. military members, quite a few of whom were killed by the very same Afghan military members we trained and provided weapons to. In the end, we can now see the folly of all of this. No matter how much money, military might and other resources we throw at a country and culture who’s people and life are much different than ours, and no matter how much our brilliant leaders wish to create new democracies around the world, the plain and simple truth is that these misadventures are doomed to fail if, like in Afghanistan, the Afghan leaders refuse to rise to the occasion and lead, and their military, who were provided so much training and equipment to protect their citizens, refuse to fight and instead throw down their weapons and run away from the fight. We cannot solve these problems with military might. There must always be a political will by a country’s citizens and leaders to change, and that clearly never happened in Afghanistan… not when America tried to force change, and not when the old Soviet system tried before us and also abandoned their costly effort. Has America FINALLY learned? I’m doubtful, but we can only hope such misadventures will not have to be relearned again and again, and again…
Heywood Jablomi says
Well before the U.S. became involved in Afghanistan it was called the Graveyard of Empires. It was George “bring it” W Bush goaded by Dick Cheney who brought us into this mess. There was zero intel that Afghanistan was involved or harboring terrorists responsible for 9/11. To compound matters, Donald Rumsfeld Bush’s Secretary of Defense uttered the most idiotic statement “nobody goes to war with all they need.” The blame for this ill planned war is on Bush. Not Obama, not trump, not Biden,…Bush. For all the good it did, Bush should have attacked Mexico or Canada. It would have been over in a matter of months and our bloodlust would have been satisfied. Guerilla wars are almost impossible to win, remember ‘Nam? Our policy is to never negotiate with terrorists, and to that I agree, but we know the hot spots ready to explode and there is where we need to get diplomatically involved. We are no longer the WW11 badasses we still think we are; we have superior fighting forces and weaponry but our leaders are reluctant to understand that today’s wars aren’t entirely fought on the battlefield. Our greatest strength in times of war comes from our allies,we need to fix the damage done by the previous administration and invite our allies to help regain some sanity on the world stage.
capt says
Nope, it all started when the US went into Afghanistan in 2001. The US invaded in October 2001 to oust the Taliban, whom they said were harbouring Osama Bin Laden and other al-Qaeda figures linked to the 9/11 attacks. George W Bush went after the Taliban, Bin Laden and al Qaeda. Its not on Biden or Trump as it started a long time before.
General Disregard says
Look, we tried to help. Didn’t work. A “Good luck with allllll that!” banner should be trailed behind our C5’s as we depart. Our soldiers should always be commended and honored for attempting to help the Afghan people and doing their duty for America no matter the outcome.
Times have changed. Technologies have advanced. We have eyes all over that god-forsaken country. We have precision guided reminders that they will not harbor elements that plan and coordinate attacks on our homeland. Those don’t just stop because we’re not physically there.
Pogo says
@Seems like old times:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Afghan_history
You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach him all your art of war
— Plutarch
https://www.google.com/search?d&q=Plutarch
What Else Is New says
And the Republican website just took down their support of leaving Afghanistan. Cringe worthy. Bush owns this fiasco.
Ray W. says
Cary is right and wrong at the same time or perhaps better stated, he is partially right, but colossally wrong for what he left out. Early last year, the Trump administration concluded the Doha Accord negotiations with the Taliban that contained a provision calling for the U.S. to pull all troops out of Afghanistan by August 31st. The Afghan government was not a party to the negotiations and did not sign out to its terms. Biden followed the terms of that portion of the Accord. It appears both Trump and Biden were wrong, if the standard was to ease a path for the Taliban to negotiate a separate peace deal with the Afghan government. Since it is entirely possible for two or more people to own one thing, Cary is, at best, partially right.
Reporters preserved/downloaded the up-until-recently featured GOP website’s national party platform plank applauding Trump for his role in the Doha Accord negotiations. The GOP national party recently took down the plaudit. One possible explanation is that the national GOP party doesn’t want people to blame Trump for signing away Afghanistan.
Every so often, I think about one of my favorite Tristam editorial columns, titled “Bush’s Iraq War: Icarus on Crack.” Tribes with flags, he wrote. Negotiating with one tribe carrying its own flag when there are a half-dozen other tribes with different flags vying for power can be described as colossal hubris. Bush/Obama/Trump/Biden; they all own this.
Follow the Money says
NO Country will EVER change Afghanistan. Their culture and their ability to grow POPPIES and make HEROIN for the last 2oo0 years ,makes them VERY VALUABLE in the eyes of others. It will NEVER change. Stay the HELL out and prepare the USA for an EXTRA EXTRA BIG BATCH of Heroin this coming year. Now the Chinese will help them mix it with Fentanyl and keep the ADDICTS of this planet HOOKED for another 2000 years………… FOLLOW the MONEY !!!!
mausborn says
Trump tweets on November 21, 2013 “We have wasted an enormous amount of blood and treasure in Afghanistan. Their government has zero appreciation. Let’s get out!” Well, now we have!
It was the Trump administration who put all of this in motion. It was their setting of the timeline. America trained 300,000 Afghan soldiers and Taliban has 75,000. What did afghan soldiers do? They laid down their weapons and surrendered. We spent 20 years, half of our GDP on that wasted land for what? This is joe Biden’s fault. But let’s don’t forget Trump started the agreement with Taliban. He agreed to withdraw all American soldiers by 5/1/2021. Donald also released 5000 Taliban prisoners including their current leader in hoping they will deal with afghan government peacefully.
Bush started, Obama continued, trump signed it off, and Biden closed it.
Anonymous says
Once again you can try and cover for the moron-in-chief all you want but the facts are not on your side.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/clip-biden-saying-people-wont-lifted-off-embassy-roof-afghanistan-resurfaces-just-that-happens-1619517%3famp=1
mausborn says
Biden ” “I am the 4th American president to preside over the war in Afghanistan. I will not pass this responsibility on to a 5th. I will not mislead Americans by claiming that just a little more time in Afghanistan will make all the difference. The buck stops with me.” – TRUMP. …. Its BIDENS fault. Say again Red Hat?????!!
Trump negotiated with the Taliban, and set a May 2021 withdrawal. That’s all that needs to be said!
Pogo says
@trumpholes everywhere
Ain’t it the truth?!