As average gasoline prices have moved back above $3 a gallon in Florida, a tech company that monitors the fuel industry foresees prices above $4 a gallon in 2023.
The Boston-based GasBuddy, in an annual outlook released Wednesday, predicted that pump prices will peak at an average of $4.25 to $4.65 a gallon in Miami, $4.15 to $4.55 in Orlando and $4.10 to $4.45 in Tampa.
The peaks, barring unexpected changes, likely would happen in the summer, followed by “normal seasonal fluctuations” with prices falling after Labor Day. GasBuddy forecast the national average will be back down to about $3.17 before the start of 2024.
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded Thursday in Florida was $3.12, while the national average was $3.16, according to the AAA auto club.
Average prices hit $5 nationally and $4.89 in Florida in June before steadily declining through much of the rest of the year. Prices have started to rise this week after dipping below an average of $3 in Florida.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, said in the report it is “highly improbable” for a repeat of 2022, but “storm clouds” remain.
“2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive,” De Haan said. “The national average could breach $4 a gallon as early as May — and that’s something that could last through much of the summer driving season.”
In the forecast, gas prices nationally could fall under $3 a gallon in February, climb to $3.99 by June, remain over $3.80 during the summer and drop as the year comes to an end.
GasBuddy’s forecast doesn’t assume “a severe recession,” but that “some level of economic reset will limit oil demand.” It cited uncertainty from China easing COVID-19 mandates, OPEC trying to balance oil markets by cutting oil production and Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine.
“The East Coast remains highly susceptible to Russia’s war on Ukraine, as European countries seek out supplies of oil and refined products from elsewhere, putting upward pressure on prices on the East Coast,” the report said.
Other “unscheduled obstacles” could include pipeline shutdowns and weather issues, such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
For the year, the national average is expected to be $3.49 a gallon, down from a $3.96 average in 2022.
At that rate, the average American household is expected to spend $2,471 on gas in 2023, down from $2,748 in 2022.
GasBuddy, which acknowledges its forecast isn’t gospel, predicted the national average would be $3.99 this year, its lowest margin of error since first making an annual forecast in 2012.
The company said its “forecast has been above the actual outcome eight of 10 years, with just two years, 2018 and 2021, in which the forecast was lower than the actual outcome.”
GasBuddy noted prices are subject to seasonal increases and decreases tied to refinery maintenance in the spring and fall and the Clean Air Act, which has been slowly eliminating some pollutants from fuels.
Spring maintenance comes as refineries deplete their inventory of winter-blend gasoline for a more-expensive summer blend. Over the past decade, average price increases of 35 cents to 85 cents have been attributed to the change.
Florida’s average unleaded price sat just below $3 a gallon for most of the Christmas weekend. The West Palm Beach area had the highest average price Thursday at $3.29 a gallon, while the Panama City area had the lowest average at $2.92.
–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida
Here We Go Again says
Thanks to all the people that voted for Biden
Pierre Tristam says
Ah yes, because Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, they’re just saintly billies in comparison, right? Biden’s the Opecdick. Of course.
Jerome says
And Palm Coast gas will be $5.50 per gallon !!!!
Harry says
Please cut down on fox fake entertainment and use your brain to do a real search as to why the price of gas will increase. It’s real simple – just turn on your computer and ask , Why is the price of gas going up?
Nephew Of Uncle Sam says
President Biden does not set the gas prices.
Herman says
No he does not but his policies and telling oil companies he is going to put them out of business sure does. If you think otherwise you are a fool.
D says
Really? If you believe that fairy tale that Faux News tells you why didn’t you thank the POTUS when gas prices went under 3 dollars/gallon? #hypocrite
c says
But, every time he tries to search, the ‘Net keeps giving him reasons that he KNOWS are wrong … they HAVE to be wrong, because they don’t agree what with he wants to hear and that makes it hard to commiserate with others about how bad Biden is.
Aj says
Let it be that may. Blame Biden all you want to, will still have to pay the price.
Jimbo99 says
Maybe because here in Palm Coast gas prices were never over $ 2.65/gallon before Biden & under Trump that I’ve been here (Jan 2019). I get prices were going up after the pandemic fraud of 2020 & for 2021 & 2022, that was expected to see it as low as $ 1,86/gallon in 2020. End of the day, FL was already relaxing tax on gasoline, long before Biden ever did anything about it ? 74 million voters don’t deserve Biden inflation 82 million of you do deserve that duping from the Delaware Liar. How can we ever thank NYC & California liberal voters for the inflation & open border problems that have gotten worse ?
Nephew Of Uncle Sam says
He never said he would “put them out of business”.
Here’s what was said during the debate with your Orange Messiah:
“I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden said.
This response even seemed to perplex the debate moderator, who asked Biden, “Why would you do that?”
“The oil industry pollutes significantly,” he continued. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.”
Biden’s candor was a bit remarkable. Politicians are renowned for hedging and offering vague responses to straightforward questions. As the Associated Press reports, even the president himself seemed “surprised and pleased by Biden’s comment.”
The Biden Campaign tried to backtrack after the debate, telling reporters he was only talking about oil subsidies. But even in his clarifying comments, Biden indicated he still plans to get “rid of fossil fuels.”
“We’re getting rid of the subsidies for fossil fuels, but we’re not getting rid of fossil fuels for a long time,” Biden said, according to The Guardian.
You can check the rest of the story and debate for yourself Herman with a simple search.
Herman says
@Nephew…
So what do you think him screaming “NO MORE FRACKING” and “transition from the oil industry” means…. ??
Think about it and do not be partisan…
If we “transitioned away from swimming pools” we would be putting the pool industry out of business…
Dennis C Rathsam says
Folks, You cant all be that ignorant to blame Trump for gas 2 years later! I dont buy gas in Palm Coast, why should U? They rip us off constantly If you stop buying gas here from these snake oil salesmen, the price will come down. They will have gas comming out thier ears. What ever happen to competitive pricing? I shop in Daytona, I get gas in Daytona, yet I pay cheaper P/C taxes. By the time I fight all the traffic here in town, I find a quick ride down 95, is better than bumper to bumper P/C! Its good to get out, keeps you young.
Ray W. says
Why Jimbo99 his support for socialist control over the American crude oil marketplace is beyond me.
So long as the crude oil market is international in scope, and so long as the world continues to rely on capitalism as the market driver, interruptions or increases in crude oil supplies, be they from OPEC votes, new drilling efforts, be they horizontal or vertical wells, Russian invasions, worldwide economic growth or contraction increasing or decreasing demand, etc., capitalism will always drive crude oil prices, supply and demand being what it is.
U.S. government policies do not impact crude oil prices like the disruption of seven million barrels of crude oil per day being taken off the international marketplace after the February 2021 OPEC vote, or the roughly five million barrels of crude oil per day being impacted by Russia’s war in the Ukraine.
Those factors accurately and adequately explain America’s energy marketplace; they also explain why I keep after Jimbo99 in hopes that he, one day, will begin to exercise the necessary intellectual rigor for his believability when typing.
I suppose the Biden administration could nationalize American energy companies, as Jimbo99 advocates. Biden could then order the energy companies to expand their drilling plans for crude oil, but he hasn’t done so yet, much to Jimbo99’s chagrin. Instead, the better argument is that America’s energy companies like the higher prices they get from oil produced from already existing wells as much as OPEC’s member nations do. Perhaps this is why the CEO of a large energy producer told an interviewer that even if crude oil prices rose to $200 per barrel, his company would not increase production via newly drilled wells more than 5% this year. I see that Chevron is running TV ads claiming that Chevron intends to increase production in the Permian Basin by 15% this year. That means that not all energy producers in the U.S. are intentionally driving up prices.
Jimbo99, I have read your many well-reasoned comments on other issues, so I know you are capable of so much more. Your plan for socialist government control of American energy producers, in the long run, will not work as well as capitalism, with all its flaws, does today.
Ray W. says
The partisan gullibility reflected in the posts submitted above by Jimbo99 and Herman prompted a little research.
During Trump’s first year in office, his administration issued 2,658 permits to drill for crude oil and natural gas on federal lands. Biden’s first year? 3,557, approximately 58% more than were issued by Trump’s administration. I dug deeper. Permits to drill are good for two years, with an option to extend for another two years if the holder can show good cause for the additional time.
Is it possible that the partisan gullibility exhibited by Jimbo99 and Herman is undermined by the actions of American energy companies, which sought and obtained permits to drill at a greater rate during the first year of the Biden administration?
This morning, I came across an article about a lease that was put up for bid for drilling for crude oil or natural gas on federal offshore fields in Alaska. Only one bid, and that from a company that already holds leases on adjacent fields but has not yet begun drilling. The bid is under review to determine whether it meets statutory and regulatory requirements, including whether it rises to the level of fair market value.
I dug deeper. Leases to drill for crude oil and natural gas are valid for 10 years, with an option to renew for another 10 years.
Is it possible that the partisan gullibility exhibited by Jimbo99 and Herman is undermined by the fact that there seems to be little interest by American energy companies to drill off the shores of Alaska?
Once again, I point to the large numbers of drilling rigs operating in the Permian Basin, which is a huge oil field in Texas that first produced crude oil in 1918. This year, American energy producers broke a record level of production, crossing the five million barrel of crude oil per day barrier. We don’t need to drill on federal land right now because the cheapest method of expanding our supply of domestic supplies of crude oil comes from horizontal drilling methods in the Permian Basin. No energy company in its right mind would spend more to drill on federal lands than it costs to extract oil from already existing wells in the Permian Basin. But it doesn’t cost very much for American energy companies to obtain long-term leases to drill on federal lands and to apply for up to four-year permits, just in case in the fullness of time it becomes economically feasible to do so.
Herman braying about no more fracking, when fracking in the Permian Basin is going on more than ever in history suggests that he is just talking to hear his head roar. Herman’s braying reminds me of the old political joke. Ignore what an American politician says in public. Listen to what an American politician says in private. Ignore what a Middle Eastern politician says in private. Listen to what a Middle Eastern politician says in public.
c says
I’m still looking for a new source of whale oil for my oil lanterns. Phooey on this high-faluting new ‘electricity’ crap – we gotta keep the whalers in business.