Voting yes on Amendment 2 to boost Florida’s minimum wage will either give 2.5 million workers a pay raise or result in 158,000 jobs disappearing over the next few years.
The proposed incremental increase to $15 an hour will greatly reduce the number of households living in poverty and narrow pay gaps experienced by women and people of color. Or the measure will slow economic growth as Florida comes out of the coronavirus pandemic and create long-term effects from which the state might never recover.
While the opposing camps on Amendment 2 offer those dramatically different pictures about what will happen if the minimum-wage measure passes, political experts anticipate that the outcome of the vote on the proposed amendment — one of six on the Nov. 3 ballot — will be close.
Supporters need to win approval from 60 percent of voters to increase the minimum wage, a proposal spearheaded by prominent Orlando attorney John Morgan.
Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida’s School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs, said “when push comes to shove a lot of people will vote for it because they believe on balance it will help average working people.”
Jewett based his projection, in part, on the 71 percent of voters who in 2004 approved a ballot measure that has led to smaller increases in the state’s minimum wage. That measure ties annual increases to inflation.
However, Jewett acknowledged that the fate of Amendment 2 also could be determined by last-minute spending by Morgan and business groups opposed to the proposal, while another key factor could be voter turnout.
“If (Democratic presidential candidate Joe) Biden wins big, that means higher Democratic turnout and higher likelihood of passing,” Jewett said. “If (President Donald) Trump wins big, then the odds go down some with higher Republican turnout.”
If approved, Amendment 2 would increase the state’s minimum wage — currently $8.56 an hour — to $10 on Sept. 30, 2021, and incrementally increase the rate each year until reaching $15 on Sept. 30, 2026.
Florida Atlantic University Professor Kevin Wagner, the school’s political-science department chairman, also surmised that turnout will play a big role in the fate of the amendment.
“There is partisan split on this typically. What I mean by that is that Democrats tend to favor increases in the minimum wage at higher rates than Republicans,” Wagner said. “So, it may depend on a better Democratic turnout. With that said, minimum wage increases are generally popular with many Republicans and independents as well, even if the support isn’t quite as high as it is with Democrats.”
The amendment has become a fight that pits the Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association and other leading business groups against Morgan and groups such as the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and SEIU Florida, a union that represents about 55,000 public employees. Morgan also successfully led efforts in 2016 to pass a constitutional amendment that broadly legalized medical marijuana in the state.
Through the political committee Florida For a Fair Wage, Morgan’s side has spent nearly $5.2 million and received more than $255,000 that an SEIU committee has contributed through in-kind donations of text messaging and digital ads. A big chunk of the cash went into collecting signatures and the legal process of placing the amendment on the ballot.
Across the aisle, the political committee Save Florida Jobs, Inc. has spent $288,707, but the opposition effort has received increased attention through near-daily news releases and calls with business owners and Republican politicians fighting the amendment.
The most visible opponent has been Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association President and CEO Carol Dover. Florida TaxWatch and the Florida Chamber of Commerce are among groups that have released studies highly critical of the amendment.
Michael Binder, faculty director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, doubts the amendment will pass, even after a poll conducted by his research lab at the start of October put Amendment 2 right at the 60 percent support mark.
“Ballot measures almost exclusively poll better than they actually do on Election Day,” Binder said. “So, I don’t expect this to pass. Mid-50s, maybe, but unlikely to get over the 60 percent barrier.”
In the University of North Florida poll, conducted as vote-by-mail ballots started to roll in, respondents were advised that state and local government costs will increase, about $15 million in 2022 and up to $540 million in 2027, to comply with the new minimum wage levels.
Amendment 2 has topped 60 percent in other publicly released polls, drawing 67 percent support in a Monmouth University survey conducted in mid-September and 70.8 percent when Floridians were surveyed online by Saint Leo University’s Polling Institute between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2.
Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida’ distinguished professor emerita of political analysis, isn’t impressed with the polling numbers.
“I’ve seen only a few polls, most of which predict narrow passage, but none I have a lot of confidence in,” MacManus said. “This vote will likely be heavily influenced by a voter’s economic circumstance and, to some degree, by one’s knowledge of economics.”
–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida
Agkistrodon says
Along with Amendment 2 will be a noticeable increase in self service kiosks, thereby effectively reducing the number of people needed to provide service. That should free people up to do things like pursue art, write a book etc…..gee that sounds like something Obama said about Obamacare……..
Shelly says
It would also raise the cost of everything else, it’s called the domino effect.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Entry level jobs, were for high school students, getting thier first job. It was not to be a life time affair. Mickey D’s ,Burger king, KFC all need workers…but they can not pay ten dollars an hour, or more. If that were the norm, your cheese burger will cost U six dollars. At that price…who will stop and get a bagfull for thier famlies? Who could affored that? I remember my first trip to Mickey D’s. It was in the early 60’s or late 50’s. Hambergers were 15 cents,cheeseburgers were a nickel more. I blame these sweat shops here in Flagler & Daytona. Those are the jobs that should pay more. But they dont…they know what they can get away with, due to the amount of folks just passing trough. They have kept their doors open & profitable by keeping the uneducated Fl worker, under thier thumb. The only way out is through education!
Janet Yaron says
And who is going to pay for the increases? From history we see that increases in pay cause increases in price so it becomes a moot point.
Mythoughts says
I have a friend the works at a restaurant in Flagler Beach and I could not believe her boss is telling his employee’s to vote this admendment down or they could lose their jobs. Where does he get off intimidating his staff like that?
The only people against someone earning a decent wage seems to be Republicans. Did they every thing that if people earned a decent salary it would be saving taxpayers money because less people would have to depend on government assistance like food stamps and other available benefits, which could lower taxpayers on the taxes.
The Republicans are also all for taking away Obama Care Insurance when they have yet to put a new plan on the table. Trump wants to take it away and when he ran in 2016 promoted he had a better plan, he has yet to show any such plan.
This state has long held down the regular workers to get ahead, this state is so far behind other states, and without this admendment being past once again the regular workers in this state will continue to struggle to survive.
cgm says
raising MW only increases unemployment!
make employer buy a better burger flipping machine.
2000 people apply for burger job employer names wage.
1 brain doctor apply to 50 hospitals doctor names their own wage.
Percy's mother says
The State of Florida is not holding regular workers down.
Your destiny is in YOUR hands . . . through gaining and building upon knowledge (READING), education and taking every leadership and entrepreneurial seminar available, along with such NETWORKING offerings such as Toastmasters, Dale Carnegie courses as well as others . . . all of which are available locally.
It is up to the individual to use one’s time wisely by participating in the above-NOTED avenues for self-improvement.
If you want to sit on Facebook or other social media wasting your time when you could be investing in yourself and therefore your future, you have only yourself to blame.
If you want to succeed in life, you have to hustle mentally and physically.
Don’t blame Republicans. Your future is in YOUR HANDS.
Steve says
Its a DOLLAR a Year for 5 years. With all due respect in 5 years a McDonalds burger will be 5$$ or already is depending on what one orders. I agree Education but not all have that opportunity. This really is token and brings the Minimum wage out of the Stone Age. Its a start. With the way the Economy is in Florida now an increase would help those in that position. Your opinion that these jobs were not meant for a life time affair to me sounds offensive. Flagler where you reside isnt exactly the land of high paying jobs. The MCDonalds argument doesnt jive for this reason. Economies of scale. Its a lame tired disproven Economic theory. We as a Country should be more worried about the National Debt being accumulated and those ramifications on Cost of Goods and Services versus a paltry increase in a State minimum wage.
Our thoughts. says
Calm down , we republicans don’t like paying high wages for uneducated democrats. It will increase the price of your happy meal.
Gary R says
@Dennis C Rathsam – You obviously have never been at Five Guys. These are their prices now.
Hamburger $6.99
Cheeseburger $7.69
Bacon Burger $7.99
Bacon Cheeseburger $8.69
A. J. says
If, M.W. stay the same for 10 more years, prices will of goods and services will increase. Prices will go up regardless to what happens to W.M. Increase in W.M. is not the action to cause an increase in prices.
Steve says
Its a Win Win. There are plenty of Economic Studies on this look it up. In this State and FPC it would benefit alot of Workers. Its a lame tired disproven Theory that this is a negative. Especially done over time. The problem is a 60% Majority is needed so all for naught probably wont pass. Not going to change anyones opinion but an opportunity to Update wages in a low wage State. Vote Accordingly
mark101 says
Wages go up, prices go up. Simple to understand. It all evens out, we as customers will pay for the increase one way or another.