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Trump Leads Rubio and Bush in Florida, Would Beat Clinton But Not Biden

| August 20, 2015

2016 races

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are churning the unexpected.

If Donald Trump hasn’t complicated the 2016 presidential race enough for his GPO competitors across the country, he’s complicating it especially in Florida, a battleground state critical to Republican chances of retaking the White House. Florida is fronting two GOP candidates in the race: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, one a senator the other a former two-time governor. Yet Trump beats both easily among registered Republicans in the latest Quinnipiac University poll–Bush by four points, and Rubio by 10.

Should Trump not be the nominee, he has not ruled out a third-party run. If he were to take that route, he would make it easier for Hillary Clinton to win–or for Joe Biden to win, should the vice president decide to run, as he would bleed votes away from either Rubio or Bush. Clinton would take 37 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Bush and 19 for Trump. Clinton would win over Bush by much wider margins (10 and eight points) in Ohio and Pennsylvania, also critical battleground states. No candidate can win the White House by losing Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, given the certain outcome in the majority of the remaining states.

Trump is very far from out of the picture either way. But if he were to be so, this latest poll is also the most encouraging for Rubio and Bush, who now handily would beat Clinton in Florida. That’s a significant turn-around from a year and a half of polling.

If the election were held today. Bush would beat Clinton 49-38 percent in Florida. Rubio would beat her 51-39. And even Trump would beat her in a head-to-head match-up, 43 to 41. That’s a sign that Clinton’s reputation has suffered in the last several months, not least because she’s also been taking criticism from members of her own party, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the race. Clinton’s support has fallen even among Democrats, who give her 48 percent support to Sanders’s 15 percent in Florida.

Clinton’s popularity was expected to weaken in Florida with Rubio and Bush making stronger showings. But it wasn;t expected to weaken as much in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yet it has. In Ohio, she still beats Bush but by just 2 points, and she’s losing to Rubio by 8 points. In Pennsylvania, Bush beats Clinton by 3 points and Rubio tops her by 7. If Biden were in the race, he’d be beating Bush and Rubio in Ohio and losing to both by slim margins.

“Vice President Joseph Biden, who is spending his time in seclusion, contemplating whether to take on Secretary Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries for president, has some new information to consider,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers are like a leaky faucet: drip…drip… drip. She is now getting less than half the vote in all three states’ Democratic primaries.”

Clinton’s honesty, empathy and temperament are faring poorly among voters. Her negative numbers in each category are high. In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she averages a negative 37 – 55 percent favorability, bad numbers matched only by those of Trump. Yet she is still the strongest candidate to emerge with the nomination, assuming Biden does not join the race. Even if Biden does, his staying power is not likely to sustain him throughout the primary campaign.

Bush is doing better in personal characteristics.

“The first Republican debate mattered,” said Brown. “Gov. Jeb Bush got middling debate grades and slips in the GOP horse race. Yet he does very well when voters rate the leading Republican candidates on personal characteristics. He scores best on honesty, empathy and temperament to handle an international crisis, while finishing a close second to Trump on leadership. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets very low debate grades and all but disappears from the Republican primary list.”

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6 Responses for “Trump Leads Rubio and Bush in Florida, Would Beat Clinton But Not Biden”

  1. Brent says:

    At least that lying, corrupt Clinton is finally being exposed and people are adjusting their opinions of her. Of all the candidates running, of any party, she is the least honest person. Why she is even considered a viable candidate at this point is amazing to me. She just might be indicted if the system treats her like any other person (doubtful, as she is the same thing as royalty here in the USA, coming from a family that can rule simply because they share a name). Her dishonesty and incompetence has been aptly demonstrated. Long ago Americans rejected the idea of ruling families, fighting a revolution to free themselves from the corruption and tyranny that goes along with royalty. A few times along the way we have made the mistake of creating political royal families, and we have two examples right now. We do not need another ruling Bush, nor do we need another Clinton. If Americans would smarten up they would realize that both of the two main parties have become so disgustingly corrupt post Citizens United (that’s right, BOTH of them) that voting for a candidate from either of them is voting against your own interests unless you are either from the 0.1% or a powerful federal level politician. Our nation is hurting, with an economy that is rigged and a nascent police state that does not respect the rights we once enjoyed. Time for real change, folks. I used to vote for the main parties, GOP probably 2/3 of the time, but no more. They have sold us out, and pretty much everyone knows this down deep. Plenty were fooled by Obama and his message of “HOPE” and “CHANGE”, but once in office he governed pretty much the same as Bush the lesser did. The two parties do not offer any difference because they have both been bought by the same people.
    Quit voting against your own interests. Dump the two main parties and demand real change.

  2. Bob says:

    Any conservative republican will do!

  3. m&m says:

    This country needs a manager not some politician who spreads his or her b–s only to get elected. Obama promised change and we sure got that. He has destroyed this wonderful country and I hope we can recover when he is out of the office he hates. Hopefully they’ll go back to Kenya where he was born.

  4. Bill says:

    Trump will not get my vote in the primaries. What amazes me is how far to the extreme left the democrat party is. They have an avowed socialist putting a good fight against what just may be the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency and democrats have no issue with either.

  5. Lancer says:

    Biden? He’s a buffoon.

    HilLIARy is toast. It seems her corruption and lack of anything approaching an achievement has finally caught up with her. However, one thing remains…her investigation. Who controls that? The Justice Department. Who controls the Justice Department? The 0bama administration.

    0bama could make this all go away. We know full well he has decided to ignore MANY investigations: Fast and Furious, the VA scandal, the IRS scandal, etc. He promised to “get to the bottom” of these things…then told justice to back off! Why? Because he was at the bottom of these things.

    0bama need someone he can control, someone who won’t unravel the complete lunacy that he has done. HilLIARy is not that person. The completely hapless and weak Biden is.

    Therefore, it is my belief, that 0bam-bam is doing is utter best to topple the Clinton cartel. I think it could play out like this: 0bama tells HilLIARy if she’ll do “this”…he’ll kill the investigation. If she doesn’t and take her chances….they’ll destroy her candidacy and, then, 0bama will issue a pardon on his last day. Just like Bill did with the New Square Four Pardon that got HilLIARy a senate seat.

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