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Flagler-Palm Coast’s Crime Rate Falls Sharply in First 6 Months of 2018, Arrests Up 35%

| December 6, 2018

flagler county crime rate 2000-2018

Click on the graph for The crime rate countywide during the tenures of the last four sheriffs. The figure for 2018 is an annualized estimate based on figures for the first six months of the year, and on last year’s population. Click on the image for larger view. (© FlaglerLive)

Continuing a streak started in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009, Flagler County’s crime rate fell sharply in the first six months of 2018, led by a drop in every violent crime category and in all but one non-violent crime category: auto thefts, which increased by one, to 45, compared to the same period last year.


The numbers reflect a statewide trend, with crime volume dropping 8 percent across Florida in the first six months of the year, and 7 percent in Flagler (from 940 total crimes to 875). See the full numbers in the historical chart below.

In contrast, arrests are up a staggering 27 percent countywide in the first six months of the year, including a 20 percent increase in arrests for assault and a 35 percent increase in drug arrests. The steep increase in arrests is reflected in the jail population, which peaked at 256 earlier this year before falling in the past months, down to 175 as of Wednesday evening.

Crime is down “because they’re in jail and not committing crime and preying on the community,” Flagler County Sheriff Rick Staly said of criminals. “Anybody can dispute anything, but I think our numbers have proof.” While he sees a correlation between jail population and crime, Staly said it’s a lot more than that: his agency added 15 road deputies between Palm Coast and the county, seven school deputies plus a deputy dedicated to pursuing domestic violence cases, for a total of 23 additional deputies. “Clearly that has an impact too, because we’re getting closer to the staffing we should have for a community our size, we’re still not where we should be,” he said.

He also cites a “a combination of intelligence led policing, including the involvement of the community through social media, a motivated workforce, being tough on crime,” and weekly crime-maps meetings that lay out strategy of who and what to focus on, keeping in mind that the majority of crimes are committed by a minority of offenders. “All of that has come together.”

According to figures released by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, there were two murders, 11 reported rapes and five reported robberies in the first six months of the year, all down considerably in comparison with the first six months of 2017, by which time there’d been almost double the number of reported rapes and three times the number of robberies. Aggravated assaults declined less steeply, from 101 to 92.

All the figures are based on reported crime, not actual crime, keeping in mind that a large number of incidents are never reported. But that’s the case every year, so comparisons hold.

Larcenies continue to be the most frequent crime in Flagler, with 610 reported in the first six months, down three from last year. There were 110 burglaries, down from 143.

The figures reflect crime in all Flagler jurisdictions. Bunnell and Flagler Beach have their own police departments. The Flagler County Sheriffs’s Office provides policing in unincorporated Flagler and in Palm Coast, hub of most crime. The Sheriff’s Office’s jurisdiction accounts for 78 percent of all crimes reported in the county. (See the sheriff’s numbers as reported to FDLE here.)

Even though Bunnell’s population of 3,000 is significantly lower than Flagler Beach’s 5,000, Bunnell is second in frequency of crime, with 90, a quarter of which were violent crimes. Flagler Beach is third, with 48 in the first six months of the year, and with just three violent crimes (all aggravated assaults). The rest were mostly larcenies.

While the gross number of crimes rose in 2015 and 206, the crime rate continued to decline as the county’s population continued to increase. Figures for the beginning of 2018 show steep declines even as the county’s population has continued to grow. Crime rates are based on population figures provided by FDLE. It does not provide figures for the first six months of 2018. But as of today, the Census Bureau places Flagler’s estimated population at over 110,000, or 5,000 more than the figure FDLE relied on for its 2017 crime rate. That means the actual crime rate may be even lower than that reported by the state agency.

“We hope it holds as we finish the year,” Staly said, with some caveats about the numbers: he expects to see domestic violence incidents to still show an increase this year, though it was flat in the first six months of the year, with 302 reported domestic violence offenses (compared to 299 last year). “We are trending still up on domestic violence cases and arrests,” he said, “we are trending down on stalking cases because I think we have a better system in law enforcement to prevent the stalking cases, and we are significantly up in arrests for violation of injunction.” This year the Sheriff followed up a domestic violence initiative by finding money for a dedicated detective and domestic violence analyst.

Another caveat: he considers the juvenile justice system “broken.”

“I’m just hoping that doesn’t trend to a future crime wave, when we can arrest these juveniles for burglaries and car thefts over and over and over, and there’s no real consequence,” the sheriff said. There were 46 juvenile arrests in the first six months of the year in the county, up from 44–and just one in Bunnell.

Statewide, The index crimes of robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft were down while murder and rape increased slightly. Domestic violence crimes were also down statewide. The state is at a 50-year low in crime rates. The semi-annual crime report calculates crime volume, the number of index crimes known to law enforcement. The report, including county-by-county breakdowns, can be found on FDLE’s website.

Flagler County Crime and Crime Rates, 2000-2018

Year (Sheriff)Pop.**Total Crime IndexIndex % Change
from Previous Year
Mur-
der
RapeRob-
bery
Aggra-
vated
Asslt
Bur-
glary
Lar-
ceny
Vehicle TheftCrime
Rate
per
100,000
% Cleared
2018* (Staly) N.A.875 (940)-6.92 (2)11 (21)5 (16)92 (101)110 (143)610 (613)45 (44)1,663***34.3 (22.8)
2017 (Staly)105,2172,082-1.0523322042871,4251061,97824.9
2016 (Manfre)103,1552,102+1.4%0 20322063341,4051052,03722.9
2015 (Manfre)101,4132,072+1.7223262313751,3241092,060.925.3
2014 (Manfre)99,1212,055-6.2014322043301,399762073.230.3
2013 (Manfre)97,4832,190-0.5322572064761,343832238.327.7
2012 (Fleming)97,2202,200-7.418382104361,433742,262.929.3
2011 (Fleming)96,2412,376-4.2119372545051,485752,468.829.3
2010 (Fleming)94,9842,480-4.2016361775561,5911042,611.024.2
2009 (Fleming)94,9772,588+5.3322482235921,5901102,724.926.1
2008 (Fleming)95,5882,458-9.8014562035401,5101352,571.522.9
2007 (Fleming)93,6442,724+18.6418542126091,6601672,908.921.6
2006 (Fleming)89,1512,296+15.7412371805021,3911702,575.421.2
2005 (Fleming)78,6931,984+21.8112452433951,1531352,521.226.5
2004 (Manfre)69,7591,629+5.1012191673479821022,335.230.2
2003 (Manfre)61,6171,550+14.22829169353906832,515.526.1
2002 (Manfre)56,8611,357-2.221319165365722712,386.535.4
2001 (Manfre)53,1371,388-0.411927130348786772,612.127.7
2000 (McCarthy)49,9081,394+18.941222112363806752,793.126.8
Source: Unified Crime Report, FBI and FDLE
(8) First six months of the year.
Note: The crime figures listed in the table represent the incidence of reported of crime in the entire county, including Bunnell and Flagler Beach, not just crime reported to or by the Flagler County Sheriff's Office. Note, too, that reported crime is always lower than actual crime levels, as all crimes are not reported.
(**)The population figure is based on the total provided by FDLE, which differs from that of the U.S. Census Bureau. The latter places the county's total population at 105,392.
(***) Annualized estimate, based on FDLE's last provided population figure, in 2017. The population has likely increased by at least 1,000, so the actual index would be lower.

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13 Responses for “Flagler-Palm Coast’s Crime Rate Falls Sharply in First 6 Months of 2018, Arrests Up 35%”

  1. /r says:

    Could this be because many of these criminals have sought treatment after the wake-up call of Fentanyl-laced opiates killing literally EVERYONE? Kudos to the sheriff but there are certainly other factors at play.

  2. Ucr manipulation says:

    Isnt it true that the first full year Staly was sheriff Flagler county had the highest murder rate in it’s history? These ucr reports are manipulated to show what ever the sheriff wants but you can not change a murder. I thought a local drug dealer was charged with murder when a woman overdosed. Why isn’t the sheriff counting overdoses in this manner? Simply manipulation of statistics. Wake up people.

  3. Richard says:

    Great job Flagler County! Now if we could only get the judicial system to keep these lowlife’s off the streets and away from the law abiding public that would be even better. Also I hope Flagler County will one day have a support system in place to reduce the number of suicides in this county.

  4. atilla says:

    Why are arrests up when crime is down?

  5. Concerned Citizen says:

    If the crime rate is down and the arrest rate has increased it means cases aren’t being prosecuted. Don’t forget you can get arrested then have charges dropped. You’ll still have to deal with the arrest record even after they drop the charges.

  6. hawkeye says:

    Congrats to Sheriff Staly and his team

  7. Bill says:

    @ atilla says:
    December 7, 2018 at 12:25 pm
    Why are arrests up when crime is down?

    A crime does not always end with the arrest of those who did the crime,. So if MORE people are arrested for the crimes they do and are in jail the less crimes they can inflict on decent people.

  8. snapperhead says:

    “The numbers reflect a statewide trend, with crime volume dropping 8 percent across Florida in the first six months of the year, and 7 percent in Flagler (from 940 total crimes to 875).”

    Don’t hurt your shoulder patting yourself on the back Sheriff. You added 23 new deputies, at a huge cost to taxpayers, and the crime rate in Flagler still dropped less than the state average.

  9. nairb sonjohn says:

    Excellent job sheriff!!!

  10. Agkistrodon says:

    @Atilla. Arrests are up do to more proactive enforcement. Crime can still drop, the rise in arrests shows Deputies are doing their jobs better. They were not before………If 100 people committed crimes and only 25 were arrested, then the following year 75 people committed crimes and 60 were arrested. Easy math. Crimes go down arrests go up. Proactive Policing.

  11. rst says:

    @Agkistrodon, I’m not certain I follow your logic. My logic agrees with the others; arrest rate goes up, so those arrested must be committing crimes which results in a higher crime rate. Your logic doesn’t make sense. The rest of the world says: Crime rates and arrest rates are proportionate, not inversely proportionate.

  12. Agkistrodon says:

    Crime rates and arrest rates are two completely different ratios. Yes they are both Initially based on the commission of the crime, BUT that is where it ends. If Enforcement is not policing, you have little to no arrests. You could have the SAME policing yielding little to no arrests but at the same time the actual rate of crimes committed can drop due to OTHER variables, as in people leaving an area, etc. Now if you INCREASE policing, and crime does not INCREASE but arrests DO then you have an increase in arrest with NO actual increase in crime. Just a matter of being in the right place at the right time.

  13. Agkistrodon says:

    And at NO point did I state they are “inversely proportional”. They have different variables involved so they cannot be the inverse of each other.

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