By Shaun Narine
Many observers of American politics are understandably terrified at the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected president of the United States in November.
The U.S. is already showing signs of a failed democracy. Its government and politics are often dysfunctional and plagued with corruption.
A Trump victory would raise fears of a new level of decline into fascist authoritarianism. However, a second Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the U.S.
Violence part of U.S. foreign policy
Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. has unleashed enormous violence and instability on the global stage. This is a feature of American foreign policy, regardless of who’s president.
In 2001, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. launched its “war on terror.” It invaded and occupied Afghanistan, then illegally invaded and occupied Iraq.
These actions caused the deaths of 4.6 million people over the next 20 years, destabilized the Middle East and caused massive refugee migrations.
In 2007-2008, the under-regulated U.S. economy caused a global financial crisis. The associated political and economic fallout continues to resonate.
In 2011, the U.S. and its NATO allies intervened in Libya, collapsing that state, destabilizing northern Africa and creating more refugees.
The U.S. tried to consolidate its dominance in Europe by expanding NATO, despite Russia warning against this for decades. This strategy played a role in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014 and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
President Joe Biden’s administration has been accused both of helping to provoke the war in the hopes of permanently weakening Russia and of resisting peace negotiations.
Today, Ukraine appears to stand on the verge of defeat and territorial division, and U.S. Congress seems set to abandon it.
Fuelling global tensions
The U.S. has provoked tensions with China by reneging on American commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) to refrain from having official relations or an “alliance” with Taiwan. The U.S. has also been accused of encouraging conflict in the South China Sea as it has surrounded China with hundreds of military bases.
Israel’s assault on Gaza is partly the culmination of decades of misguided U.S. foreign policy. Unconditional American support of Israel has helped enable the country’s degeneration into what human rights organizations have called apartheid, as the state has built illegal settlements on Palestinian land and violently suppressed Palestinian self-determination.
As Israel is accused of using starvation as a weapon against 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, half of them children, the U.S. is fully complicit in the Israeli war crimes and for facilitating a conflict that is further inflaming a critically important region.
Israel is of little to no strategic value to the U.S. American politicians contend that its overwhelming support for Israel reflects moral and cultural ties, but it’s mainly driven by domestic politics.
That suggests that for domestic political reasons, the U.S. has endangered global stability and supported atrocities.
Biden/Trump foreign policy
The Biden administration has continued many of the foreign policy initiatives it inherited from Trump.
Biden doubled down on Trump’s economic, technological and political war against China.
He reinforced Trump’s trade protectionism and left the World Trade Organization hobbled.
He built on Trump’s “Abraham Accords,” an initiative to convince Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel without a resolution to the Palestine question.
The Biden administration’s efforts to push normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is considered part of Hamas’s motivation to attack Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
None of this inspires confidence in U.S. “global leadership.”
Biden and Trump share the same goal: permanent American global domination. They only differ in how to achieve this.
Trump believes the U.S. can use economic and military might to coerce the world into acquiescing to American desires, regardless of the costs to everyone else and without the U.S. assuming any obligations to others.
In office, Trump tried to present himself as “anti-war.” But his inclination to use of threats and violence reflected established American behaviour.
Biden follows a more diplomatic strategy that tries to control international institutions and convince key states their interests are best served by accepting and co-operating with American domination. However, Biden readily resorts to economic and military coercion, too.
Reality check?
The silver lining to a Trump presidency is that it might force U.S. allies to confront reality.
American allies convinced themselves that the Biden presidency was a return to normalcy, but they’re still accepting and supporting American global violence. They’re also wilfully ignoring the ongoing American political decay that could not be masked by Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020.
Trump is a symptom of American political dysfunction, not a cause. Even if he loses in November, the Republican Party will continue its slide towards fascism and American politics will remain toxic.
A second Trump presidency may convince American allies that the U.S. is unreliable and inconsistent. It may undermine the mostly western coalition that has dominated and damaged the world so profoundly.
If Trump returns, traditional U.S. allies may recognize that their interests lie in reconsidering their relations with the U.S.
For American neighbours Canada and Mexico, a Trump presidency is only bad news. They’ll have to somehow protect themselves from creeping U.S. fascism. For the rest of the world, it may herald the start of a dynamic multipolar order.
Shaun Narine is Professor of International Relations and Political Science at St. Thomas University in Canada.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Pogo says
@Shaun Narine
“…Reality check?
The silver lining to a Trump presidency is that it might force U.S. allies to confront reality…”
Check declined for insufficient reality:
https://www.ratemyprofessors.com/professor/110130
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JW says
Spot on Shaun Narine!
I know one must be a foreigner to see this. Most Americans (still) see the US as the greatest nation on earth!
However, we are directly or indirect accountable for most of the wars, militarily or economically with incredible damage to other nations. The reason is, we want to be the world’s HEGEMON forever. We are failing with our own “democracy”, and yet we treat the rest of the world like a dictator.
It’s time to show more restraint. Yes, Trump is the worst but Biden’s handling of Ukraine, Israel and China is just the same: ignorant and arrogant!
Just finished the new book by Dominic Erdozain (ONE NATION UNDER GUNS) which shows the long history of an embarrassing, cruel gun culture in our country. We don’t care about our own neighbors anymore (maybe that’s why we have so many gated communities).
It’s time for a bipolar world order and a multi-polar order for the US because a two party system does no longer work in our increasingly dysfunctional, aggressive political climate.
It is time to wake up by better educating our children and ourselves. However, we see things going the opposite way; we want to be a feel good society and relax. Don’t teach anything “uncomfortable”; you know what I am talking about! The book by Erdozain will teach many of us something about American history, but who is reading these days?
We need to learn to THINK first and then act.
Laurel says
Just a little less testosterone and a little more estrogen: communal cooperation.
ASF says
Anti-Americanism at its worst.
Democracies can never do anything right, according to some people.
Ray W. says
Another good Churchill quote, this time from a speech:
“Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms of government that have been tried from time to time.”
Jim says
It seems the author is buying into Russian propaganda on the Ukraine war. NATO has “creeped” towards Russian borders because those countries want to have a democratic government and not be under the Russian boot. Look at the countries Russia dominates and that fact is obvious. In 2014, Putin realized that the West was in no mood for any confrontation and he “annexed” Crimea without hardly an objection from anyone. But that galvanized the Ukrainians into the realization that they were next on his list and they began resisting the Russian aggression on their border. Putin again thought the West would stand by when he invaded Ukraine in 2022 (and he was right – the first offer was to get Zelenskyy a plane out of Ukraine). However, Ukraine did not fold up under Russian aggression and they have fought back tenaciously since. They have recovered significant chunks of their country and, in my opinion, have been seriously hampered by the West’s slow motion movement to provide them the proper hardware to defeat the Russians. Ukraine is not currently losing, despite the author’s statement, they have had to switch to a more defensive posture because the West (primarily the United States) has failed to sustain the pipeline of equipment needed. I do agree that in this, the author is correct. The US is not a reliable partner and certainly the NATO countries now recognize it and are moving to defend themselves in anticipation of American failure. (I guess Trump will claim he’s won another victory by telling Russia to “do whatever the hell you want”.)
The problem in this country is we have no staying power anymore. I wonder what WWII would have looked like with the “leadership” we now have. I don’t mean Biden, per se. Trump was a devastating president in regards to our standing in the world. Do you not remember he was laughed at in the United Nations? Does that not tell you what the world thinks of him?
The United States is now a divided country with people like Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green, Paul Gosar, Lindsey Graham, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, John N. Kennedy and dozens of others just like them are solely focused on getting their sound bite on Fox News and, through their actions and inactions, demonstrate no willingness to stand up for the United States on anything. (Lindsey Graham, a noted hawk, voted against aid for Ukraine, for God’s sake). Too many are solely focused on getting reelected at all costs and clearly at the expense of all Americans in the long run.
Everyone should read history of Germany and Europe leading up to WWII. We’re witnessing the same pattern of “American First” BS as was done then. When you read Hitler, insert Putin, for To Jo, insert Xi Jinping and for Chamberlain, insert Trump (and the MAGA cowards).
I don’t know that this country can regain it’s footing but I pray we will. I won’t live to see much of the damage heading our way but my kids and grandkids will pay for all our sins down the road.
Sherry says
Excellent comment, Jim!
Kennan says
Well,take your pick! One could be in prison, the other in hospice. these are our choices!!!! BRAVO AMERICA!!