As Americans cast their votes on Election Day 2024, the Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) at Stetson University surveyed the public on their confidence in a peaceful transition of power in January 2025.
The survey, conducted nationally by SSRS from Nov. 1 – 4, 2024, included a sample of 1,006 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.
The survey found that if former President Donald Trump were to lose, only 41% of respondents felt confident in a peaceful transition of power, while a substantial 59% were not confident. Among Democrats, 76% were not confident in a peaceful transition in this scenario, reflecting a clear partisan divide.
In contrast, confidence levels shift if Vice President Kamala Harris were to lose: 64% of Americans expressed confidence in a peaceful transition, with only 36% not confident. Confidence in a peaceful transition following a potential loss by Harris was significantly higher among college-educated respondents (71%).
These findings reveal widespread concerns about stability and potential unrest in certain electoral scenarios, says Steven Smallpage, PhD, Stetson Associate Professor of Political Science and CPOR Director.
“While there is always some added anxiety and uneasiness during presidential elections, this cycle feels different and more uncertain for many Americans,” he said. “Many clearly have in mind the unrest from the outcome of the 2020 election that culminated on January 6, 2021.”
The data further reveals stark contrasts along party lines. If Harris were to lose, 77% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans and Independents expressed confidence in a peaceful transition.
However, if Trump were to lose, only 23% of Democrats and 40% of Independents felt confident in a peaceful transition, while 61% of Republicans shared that confidence. In particular, 48% of Democrats reported being “not confident at all” in a peaceful transition if Trump were to lose.
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