By Spencer Goidel
There’s a reason Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign is working hard to evoke nostalgia: People who are nostalgic – meaning, people who long for America’s “good old days” – were more likely to vote for Republican candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, according to research I conducted along with collaborators Kirby Goidel and Paul Kellstedt.
The first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention kicked off with a nostalgic message from Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin imploring voters to back Trump and “make America the land of opportunity again.”
And in general, the 2024 RNC themes largely wax nostalgic with “Make America Wealthy Once Again” on Monday, “Make America Safe Once Again” on Tuesday, “Make America Strong Once Again” on Wednesday, and “Make America Great Once Again” on Thursday.
The American public leans nostalgic. Through the 2022 Cooperative Election Study survey, which is a collective effort across many researchers and research groups, we surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults and found that approximately 54% of the respondents to our questions agree that “the world used to be a better place.” Other questions we asked included “How often do you long for the good old days in this country?” and “Do you think the American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse or better since the 1950s?”
From their answers, we constructed a scale of how much nostalgia a person feels for America’s past, and we used this scale to examine the influence of nostalgia on people’s vote choice in the 2022 midterm elections.
Our results show that the influence of nostalgia is most pronounced among independent voters.
In 2022, partisans, meaning people who aren’t independents, were loyal supporters of their respective parties, regardless of how much nostalgia they have. But independents, or people without party attachments, who feel relatively little nostalgia have a 57% probability of voting Democratic and 40% probability of voting Republican. Meanwhile, independents with relatively high levels of nostalgia have a 25% probability of voting Democratic and 74% probability of voting Republican.
Looking ahead to the 2024 general election, our findings indicate that nostalgic appeals could attract those more independent-minded swing voters to the Republican Party.
Trump’s nostalgic appeal
As a record number of Americans disapprove of incumbent President Joe Biden, a New York Times/Siena College poll finds that nostalgia for the late 2010s is setting in.
Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and his handling of the pandemic seem like blips compared to the three years of sustained economic growth during his presidency from 2016 to 2019. Just 9% of voters say the insurrection or COVID-19 is the one thing they remember most from the Trump presidency – 24% recall the economy. It’s no surprise Trump’s presidential campaign is steeped in nostalgia, again.
Trump is using the same slogan that he used officially in his 2016 campaign and unofficially in his 2020 reelection bid – “make America great again.” In 2016 and 2020, the slogan referred to a vague and distant American past when things were better, simpler.
Now, the former president’s appeal has an element of specificity to it. “Make America great again” – captured in the acronym “MAGA” – is a pledge to return things both to “the good old days” and to the way they were during Trump’s presidency. Trump’s campaign is explicit about this connection. For example, the campaign website cites Trump’s first-term accomplishments when it lists “rebuild the greatest economy in history,” “stop crime and restore safety,” and “renew American strength and leadership” as some of Trump’s top priorities for another term.
Are you better off than you were four years ago?
Presidential candidates often use nostalgia in their campaigns. “Make America great again” was not novel in 2016: It was co-opted from Ronald Reagan’s “let’s make America great again” pitch in 1980.
Reagan was masterful in his use of nostalgic appeals. In 1980, he was running against an extremely unpopular incumbent president in Jimmy Carter. After four years of the Carter presidency, the American economy was significantly worse off than in 1976. The inflation rate was 13.5%, and the economy was in a recession.
While debating Carter, Reagan famously asked the audience, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” The answer to Reagan’s question was clearly, “No.”
Comparing current conditions to the recent past is a crucial component of democratic accountability. The act of voting is inherently retrospective, a judgment of past performance. Voters need to be able to hold incumbent presidents accountable.
However, Trump’s nostalgia is more than simple retrospection. Trump’s appeal isn’t just about a better economic past or a more stable society. It serves as an evocation of a time in America when women and minorities had less power.
Nostalgia as a dog whistle
In a recently published paper in the journal Research & Politics, political scientists Kirby Goidel, Bradley Madsen and I find that feelings of nostalgia are strongly related to sexism and racism.
Analyses show that those people with more nostalgia are 23% more likely than those with less nostalgia to agree with the following racist statement: “Irish, Italian, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors.”
Similarly, nostalgic respondents are significantly more likely to believe that women “are too easily offended” and that they “seek to gain power by getting control over men.”
The connection of nostalgia to racial resentment and hostile sexism is why Trump’s nostalgic appeal is so potent and polarizing: Nostalgia is not merely about the past four years or even the Reagan-era 1980s; it harks back to an era before the Civil Rights Movement, and before the feminist movement gained momentum.
Spencer Goidel is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Auburn University.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Not buying it says
What a bunch of crap. “The connection of nostalgia to racial resentment and hostile sexism is why Trump’s nostalgic appeal is so potent and polarizing: Nostalgia is not merely about the past four years or even the Reagan-era 1980s; it harks back to an era before the Civil Rights Movement, and before the feminist movement gained momentum.” FlaglerLive, why do you print this BS? smh
Pierre Tristam says
Because it ties into what conservatives since Goldwater, Nixon and Reagan have been saying since their days in the sun: demolishing the New Deal was a Republican mantra, “law and order” was Nixon’s dog whistle to choke civil rights, and Reagan of course, Sandra Day tokens aside, unleashed the full-on reaction against women and equality that we now see codified in Republican theology.
Don says
100% agree. For the last 8 years, this is the stuff. They said about Trump and calling him a nazi a racist. Telling lies that he wants the old days back. Everybody’s segregated all this hate pure dishonesty and evil that they’ve spewed. The dishonest hate is exactly what brought about the attempted assassination of him. Trump Derrangement syndrome (tds) runs deep and it’s uncurable. Honestly, I don’t see any solution to this either they go or we go, it’s two sides all bridges have been burnt and destroyed by the deranged left.
Al says
A degree in research, is that because all the basket weaving course were full?
Whenever a liberal is challenged the first response is racism, if that doesn’t work then it’s sexism. The biggest difference in the two parties is the democrats choose only on skin color or gender. Check a box , black, Spanish, gay, it doesn’t matter the competency just just the look on the outside.
Republicans feel that the person should be qualified regardless of their race or sex.
What is Jean Pierre good at except lying? Mayor Pete besides being gay is not worth being a janitor. Kamala defies description as a person let alone a VP.
My thoughts wether you like them or not, I don’t give a ****.
Pierre Tristam says
I continue to be amazed at how commenters manage unabashedly to advertise their prejudices even as they claim to be decrying that of others. It’s like Sen. Bilbo giving us lessons on tolerance from his Hades window seat.
Jake From State Farm says
I agree with you and I am sure you continued to be amazed how the media (and I include FL), manages to unabashedly fuel division by what they considers lies from one side and nothing about the same from the other side. The same media that does not share facts about the current administrations and current President’s physical and medical condition… (oh sorry I forgot that some of the media may have shared an editorial on the radio a couple years ago). All the people from both sides asks for facts. Facts about both sides. Not every news article an op ed. Not every “news” broadcast a talk show. The public does not give to shit’s about the “media’s” opinion. They want to know the truth about both sides. They want to draw their own conclusion from honest and non biased facts.
Pierre Tristam says
Plenty of people want and get facts. Plenty of people don’t, otherwise we wouldn’t have a “news” network that predicated its coverage on lies, had to pay over $700 million to settle a defamation suit, yet still gets the viewership of millions. Those millions don’t want facts. They want their safe room to be an echo chamber. As for Biden: he should’ve stuck to one term. But that one term was better than most. No fabrications, no matter how much you wish there was a cover up of his senility. At least it wasn’t the kind of senility that gave us another Iran-Contra in that dismally corrupt and hopeless administration.
Jake from state farm says
So you are saying that the want for an echo chamber comes from both sides then? I think that is what you are saying. Please confirm. If that is correct then isn’t the job of the media to provide something other then an echo chamber? Isn’t that what journalism is all about? Isn’t that what the the “news / journalism” (not to be confused with editorials) supposed to be all about? I can get opinions from my neighbor. I /We the people need people that we can trust to give us facts. The creation of these echo chambers by giving personal opinions on both sides is what fuels this division we see in this country. Each party provides fuel for that echo chamber and the “media opinion machine” is that echo chamber. Both sides Pierre. I escaped that echo chamber but abandoning the “media from the US and rely on media form off shore. They too have their own issues but I find it much more balanced at least when reporting news from the US.
We need news, not the creation of those echo chambers on both sides. The first step is to admit this exists on both sides. Then you can start the next 11 steps.
Pierre Tristam says
You’re trying to peddle the convenient both-sides-are-equally-guilty equivalency, which is simply, demonstrably wrong. While there is unquestionably a lot of blowhard polemic in left-wing media, including in my screedier columns, there’s nowhere near the outright falsehoods and Goebbels-like propaganda constantly vomited by the fox-type and onanist networks on the right, as the judgment I referred to proves. If you want news, you know where to turn–nationally or locally. You’re not going to legitimize false equivalencies. Not here.
Joe D says
I’m sorry Jake…
but that simply isn’t true… after almost EVERY speech or other event NOW of EITHER PARTY there is a media “FACT CHECK”Listing review of the truth and the lies of the SPEAKER.. ( of course that review isn’t done by FOX news, Truth Social, or NEWSMAX).. .you just don’t remember those reviews, because the VAST MAJORITY of the lies are so overwhelmingly coming from Donald Trump! Just like the review listing 20 lies from the RNC Trump acceptance speech. When they count the “lies” and “misrepresentations” from Joe Biden…there are only 1-3 during his Speeches.
You need to expand your NEWS Sources… If you REALLY want the TRUTH!
Laurel says
Not buying and Al were born yesterday.
I Just Love Flagler Beach says
OMG, Pete Buttigieg, in addition to being gay, is a high school valedictorian, a Rhodes Scholar (Oxford), a Harvard graduate and a former naval officer. Kamala Harris, in addition to being a woman of color, graduated from Howard University and the University of California, Hastings College of the Law. She is a former Attorney General and Senator. Karine Jean-Pierre, in addition to being another woman of color, has degrees from New York Institute of Technology and Columbia University. I’d say all are quite qualified regardless of their race or sex.
Judith G. Michaud says
How can you accept anyone that is a convicted felon and rapist as our president? Just the thought of his dirty hand touching a Bible again sickens me! Kamala would be an excellent president should Joe drop out, but as of now he is running! I will vote for the slow talking honest guy rather than the loudmouth liar!
Deborah Coffey says
I’m actually surprised that Pierre published this openly and despicable racist rant. Hope you don’t call yourself a Christian, too!
KingFisher says
You will be hard pressed to find a democrat who prioritizes race and other identifiers above competency. Although you can find plenty of democrats who believe that competence can be found in every race, if only one seeks those candidates.
To challenge any form of prejudice makes America a leader in the world.
Bobby says
Trump destroyed the Republican party like he did all of his businesses, he is a convicted felon. Notice the RNC Convention none of the top Republicans showed up not even and ex-President of the Republican party, they want nothing to do with him.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
Ah the old days, when you could beat your wife and kids without worrying about cell phone cameras.
Laurel says
JD Vance has stated that marriages should stay together, basically no matter what. Abuse? Lack of love? How it effects the children? Oh well. With the Heritage Foundation’s pick, government will be much deeper into your private lives than you realize.
My husband told me he knew of families, in Ft. Lauderdale, that sent their kids to Heritage schools so they wouldn’t be around black kids. That’s where we’re headed. All white male *leadership.* “Freedom.”
Brian says
The main thing is, it’s MAGA time again! Remember the last time? Cheap gas, no wars, secure border, great economy, etc. etc. Even the TDS crowd, the never-Trumpers, are finally realizing that it’s all over. The Democrats are tripping all over themselves, Biden is finally seeing the light (when he is awake), and they are scrambling for plan B. Kamala Harris is a joke; her greatest accomplishment was serving as Willie Browns’ bratwurst bun. And it’s all fun to watch!
JOE D says
Brian,
maybe we should start having “fact check” for these COMMENTS. There certainly WERE wars during the Trump term ( then he made a RIDICULOUS promise…which Biden was STUCK with) to have the Afghanistan withdrawal happen in only a few months…GEE I wonder if Trump did that on PURPOSE (since he KNEW Biden was going to have to manage it by Trump’s timeline). NAW…Donnie would NEVER do something so underhanded ( that was sarcasm). The “Great Economy” under Trump,
didn’t trickle down to me as a Clinical Nurse Specialist, but then again MOST of the tax “cuts” went to the top 3% of earners ( I wasn’t one of them). Yes, the withholding for taxes went down from my paycheck during the year (yea!)… but when it came to tax time, most of the expenses I was able to deduct before Trump’s “cuts,” went away, or were DRASTICALLY CUT.. so I ended up paying $2450 MORE in Federal taxes (not so “Yea”), with the Trump tax “cuts.”
And you tend to forget ( I sure don’t ,as a NURSE , in the beginning of the pandemic) I had one of my ICU patients die EVERY OTHER DAY in 2020 with TRUMP telling people Covid was just like the FLU!!! Tell that to the
More than 1 million people who died ( many of them refusing vaccination due to false medical information in the media and CONSERVATIVE government leaders), from Covid. Biden had to manage the vaccination and treatment launch ( I DO thank Trump for OPERATION WARP SPEED) for the vaccine development.
Your MEMORY of the “Good ‘Ole Trump” days is VASTLY clouded…and again not based in FACTS
Jackson Gallagher says
So we are gonna act like Biden didn’t spearhead the movement to put more minorities in prison with that Crime Bill? That’s racis….oh wait, it can’t be racist if Democrats did it.
Joe D says
How about your SOURCE for your so called “facts”…and not just someone’s unsubstantiated (that means unproven) opinions.
JOE D says
Wow…..NOSTALGIA for the 1950’s!?!
I LIVED IT!
You mean you want to go back to the days when:
1-Women could work (secretaries/store clerks/ cooks/ waitresses)….but the expectation was they would not work once they got MARRIED
2- If Women worked after marriage, they weren’t allowed to work if they got pregnant
3-Once there were children in the home the WIFE was expected to stay home to care for them
4-If Women wanted to get a college education, those careers were Teachers/Nurses/ Home Economists (ALMOST NEVER Doctors/ Lawyers/ Business owners).
5- There were “Whites Only”:
-Bathrooms
-Water fountains
-Schools
-Entrances to public building (only in the REAR for “Coloreds” )
-Public /Private Swimming pools
-Jobs could post “No Negroes need apply”
-If jobs did hire both White and Negro workers, the Negro worker was paid less ( just “BECAUSE”)
-Whites and Negroes could not LEGALLY get married.
-Businesses had the RIGHT to refuse service to BLACKS
-There were White Sections of town, and Negro Sections of town…they NEVER MIXED.
-Blacks could not buy homes in the WHITE section of town
-Blacks did not have the right to Vote or run for office
-Husbands could not be prosecuted for beating their wives
-Husband had the RIGHTS of the “Marriage Bed,” and Wives could not legally deny the SEXUAL approach’s of their husbands.
I’m sure there were other restrictions, but right now they don’t come to mind..
NOSTALGIA for the 1950’s!?! Things alway look “better” in the rear view mirror.
Return to the “GOOD OLD DAYS” and the “FAMILY VALUES”…of the 1950’s….Oh YEAH….I can’t WAIT (that was sarcasm if it went over your NOSTALGIC HEAD)!!!
Laurel says
Joe D: Yes, that’s what MAGAs want. Overturning Roe is not about abortion, it’s the first, big step to roll back any rights women have won over the years.
Trump stated, about child rapist, Jeffrey Epstein, “He likes them young.” He said, when Ghislaine Maxwell, who procured teenage girls for Epstein, and participated in the rapes, went to jail “I wish her well.” Trump was found guilty of sexual assault. He rates women by numbers. He paid two women hush money. He is an adulterer. He walked in the dressing room at a teenage pageant while they were dressing because, he claimed, he had the right as the pageant owner. MAGAs don’t care. JD Vance is known to be anti women.
To go around with both those names on a tee shirt or bumper sticker, it shows exactly what the owner is all about.
Come on, now! says
This is for Trump, DeSantis in FL, TX, and everywhere we’ve had a crucifix planted in front of our march & our eyes:
“Imagine the people who believe such things and who are not ashamed to ignore, totally, all the patient findings of thinking minds through all the centuries since the Bible was written. And it is these ignorant people, the most uneducated, the most unimaginative, the most unthinking among us, who would make themselves the guides and leaders of us all; who would force their feeble and childish beliefs on us; who would invade our schools and libraries and homes. I personally resent it bitterly.”
― Isaac Asimov, The Roving Mind
I, too, resent it bitterly. To go back in time is to give up the rights we’ve all fought so very hard for. It doesn’t even matter who– just that we moved ahead a step and now we’re falling back 2 or 3. White supremacy fights so very hard to keep others down, via lies, fake news, vitriol, etc. I don’t want to go back to less!!!! Unless you are afraid of the “other”, scared of what you don’t understand, then stop trying to suppress my freedoms and those that you abhor. Going back in time isn’t freedom or better. Unless, perhaps, it is back to the Roman period, which ironically was more liberal than we give them credit for.
Stop the madness…let people be free…that is what America was founded upon!