Currently just north of Puerto Rico, Tropical storm Ernesto is on the verge of becoming a hurricane–and soon after that, a major hurricane with winds of at least 111 miles per hour–but it will veer from a northwesterly to a more northerly course on Thursday and continue along that course far from Florida and the East Coast, according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.
The Flagler and Florida coastlines will see impacts however, including dangerous rip currents and heavy surf that may further damage beach renourishment efforts in Flagler Beach. Some of the sand dredged onto the beach there in the last few weeks was eroded by heavy surf from Tropical Storm Debby. Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend last week.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is cautioning that onshore winds and long period swells will create high rip current risks will extend from Thursday through Saturday, with more moderate risks today. “Entering the water will be very dangerous, even for strong swimmers,” the service warns.
At 8 this morning, the tropical storm was some 125 miles northwest of San Juan, the Puerto Rican capital, where it dumped several inches of rain and left half the island without power. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just short of hurricane force. Ernesto was expected to become a hurricane later today and build up to a Category 3 storm as it slows down, with Bermuda in its track. The storm may reach Bermuda early Saturday.
The American forecast model has the storm swinging just east of the island, sparing it the brunt of its force. The European model is not that hopeful. It is currently forecasting a direct hit on the island, whose surface area is a little over half the size of Palm Coast, with a population of about 64,000 people.
“It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells toward the land area across the western Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory states. “Even if Ernesto stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week.”
The European model’s track of Hurricane Ernesto, produced by Tropical Tidbits, places Bermuda at the center of the track:
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