By Laura Blessing
The U.S. is moving toward a government shutdown. House and Senate appropriators are divided on spending levels, policy riders and additional items, such as support for Ukraine.
As a political scientist who studies the evolving budget process, as well as brinksmanship in Congress, it is clear to me that this episode prompts many important questions for how the U.S. is governed.
There’s the larger, long-term question: What are the costs of congressional dysfunction?
But the more immediate concern for people of the country is how a shutdown will affect them. Whether delayed business loans, slower mortgage applications, curtailed food assistance or postponed food inspections, the effects could be substantial.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Affected: Farm loans to Head Start grants
The total federal budget is almost US$6 trillion. A little over one-fourth is discretionary spending that is funded by the annual appropriations process and thus debated in Congress. This portion of spending provides money for virtually every federal agency, roughly half of which goes to defense. The rest of yearly federal spending is on mandatory entitlement programs, mainly Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on the national debt.
The Office of Management and Budget, which oversees both development of federal budget plans by federal agencies and their performance, regularly requires agencies to develop shutdown plans. Because agencies continually update these plans, no two shutdowns are exactly alike. Details depend on the agency, program and duration of the shutdown, as well as laws passed with funding since the previous shutdown, and the administration’s priorities. These plans identify a variety of ways the shutdown will affect Americans.
If a shutdown happens this year, new loan approvals from the Small Business Administration will stop. The Federal Housing Administration will experience delays in processing home mortgage loans and approvals. The Department of Agriculture will not offer new farm loans. Head Start grants will not be awarded, initially affecting 10,000 young children from low-income families who are in the program.
Some food inspections by the Food and Drug Administration, workplace safety inspections by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and environmental safety inspections by the Environmental Protection Agency could be delayed, as they have been when the government stopped functioning in the past.
During the last shutdown, about 60,000 immigration hearings, organized by the Department of Justice and not the courts, were canceled and had to be rescheduled. This year would also see cases involving noncitizens who are not being held by the government reset for a later date, even as other immigration services proceed.
Infrastructure projects awaiting approval from the Environmental Protection Agency could be stalled. The National Institute of Health’s clinical trials for diseases could also be slowed.
This is not a comprehensive list. Agency plans show what happens when federal workers are furloughed – that is, those who cannot report to work in a shutdown. Furloughs will apply to over 700,000 out of roughly 3.5 million federal employees, but even more workers will be “excepted” and required to work without pay until the shutdown ends.
That of course means employee hardship. But like past shutdowns, unpaid workers can fail to report to work in larger numbers. Americans relying on those services will face delays. There may be air travel delays as well, as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents go without pay.
Not affected: The IRS, postal service and entitlement programs
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits are entitlement programs that are not included in the annual appropriations process. Americans relying on these programs will not see those benefits affected. But these programs require administration. Federal employees would not be available to verify benefits or send out new cards.
There are additional funding sources for government activities, beyond entitlement programs, that aren’t included in the annual appropriations bills and thus are unlikely to be affected by a shutdown.
The U.S. Postal Service, independently funded through its own services, will be unaffected by a shutdown. The federal judiciary could operate for a limited time, funded by court filings, fees and appropriations allocated off the yearly cycle. But this funding won’t last long – 10 days was an estimate for the 2013 shutdown. The Supreme Court, which has functioned in previous shutdowns, is expected to continue its typical schedule.
AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
Sometimes, agencies have funding that exceeds the typical annual appropriations cycle. Or, earlier laws may have been passed that fund activities of an agency in whole or in part. The Inflation Reduction Act provided funds to run the IRS through 2031. Previous shutdowns saw significant IRS furloughs and employees walking off the job. This year, the IRS promises to be fully operational despite a shutdown.
A variety of advance appropriations also exist that provide funding for various programs one year or more beyond the year the appropriations bill was passed, including Veterans Affairs medical care; most VA benefits are unaffected.
The primary law governing funding gaps also makes exceptions for “emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property,” which includes a variety of military activities.
The big question mark
The major unknown is, of course, how long a shutdown might last. Food assistance programs – including the federal food program for poorer women, infants and children, called WIC, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP – which have some contingency funds that carry over into the next fiscal year but are running low, run the risk of those accounts running out.
The federal judiciary has limited funds. There are also a variety of federal grants to states and localities that could be short on funds, such as disaster relief and economic development programs, in addition to nutrition assistance. Government officials at the federal, state and local levels will have to make choices about whether a federal shortfall should be covered by state funds, or if workers should be furloughed. Some of these funds have been protected by increased funding in recent laws: The Highway Trust Fund is solvent through 2027, due to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021.
The economy as a whole will suffer more the longer a shutdown continues. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the last shutdown, in 2018-2019, reduced gross domestic product growth by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019. While that 35-day partial shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, it did not affect all agencies.
Federal employees and contractors are disproportionately hurt. Federal employees who are furloughed or excepted and do not receive pay during the shutdown will receive it retroactively, according to a 2019 law passed as a response to the last shutdown.
No such policy exists for contractors working for the federal government, including services ranging from janitorial to manufacturing. Beyond affecting individual workers, the private sector loses business and adjusts its hiring decisions and other practices.
Laura Blessing is a Senior Fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
JimboXYZ says
It really affects those that are furloughed most. They fall behind on the debts they have in their lives. Me, I’ve insulated myself from a lot of what the article addressed, some of it by choice, a lot more of it as society has forced myself and too many others from inclusion for any participation. So shut it down (again) doesn’t affect me for anything I’ll miss or give a damn about. We’re back to a list of essentials & non-essentials. Who knows, crime probably surges. That’s the worst concern of any risk, maybe the insurance frauds are out in full force. The usual negatives. And certainly we’ll hear about another reason or few for the next gouges of inflation for a man-made crisis.
Pierre Tristam says
Screw 350 million people as long as it doesn’t affect me: the attitude behind every comment this guy makes.
Can't believe it. says
Where do you come up with this crap? Why don’t you be honest and really describe what it is?
Could you please tell me what Joe Biden gives a damn about when it come to the American people?
He eliminated jobs with his shut down of the oil industry, now the auto industry, with his interest in EVs that people cannot afford, but China provides the batteries and earth components for. People aren’t safe because of out of control crime, without any consequences. Criminals are ignored or released once arrested. Business are forced to lock everything up to try to protect their interests. Millions of illegals are allowed to enter our country without consequences, bringing drugs and disease that cost American lives, yet Joe Biden welcomes them in. What about the cost of groceries and gas, or the right of parents to participate in their children’s education or protection from barbaric genital mutilation provided freely without parental consent or knowledge for the so called “gender correction”?
I could go on and on with you. This country is in deep demise.
Just to let you know, I’m not a fan of Trump!
Laurel says
Can’t believe: Cherry, lime or grape?
endless dark money says
wow watch fake news much? joe biden expanded oil access. Only crime going up is mass shootings. Businesses are greedy, no one is allowed to enter country illegally as people are being detained at record rates. Could be something to do with our involvment in those countries for oil interest that set off cascading consequenses and makes it unlivable for those very people. Global inflation is a problem but so is greed and endless consumption on a finite planet. sounds like someone needs to read a book, maybe start with a banned one. And your a moron if you think racist ron should decide what happens to anyones body those decisions should be made by the individuals, doctors and parents not racist gop members.
Sherry says
@cbi. . . Please post “credible facts” to prove your outrageous, ridiculous claims. Otherwise, we will all continue to understand that you are capable of only mindlessly posting FOX BS talking points. Thanks!
Richard W. Lewis says
Exactly Pierre, couldn’t agree with you more.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Its very sad what has happened the government for the people by the people! Seems theres nothing but kaos, lies, while Americans suffer. I dont want a shutdown, but its time for some real changes. I agree 100% no deal without closing the border. Who know whats in our country now. No ones vented, some with sickness, drugs, sextrafficing terrorists…Know one really knows, & Biden dont care. All these single men, enough to start an army, enough to blow our infrastructure, or our electric grid, maybe Hoover Dam! Only the shadow knows. This will turn into war, on our soil eventually. Voters, You let all our kids down, what kind of America are we leaving them? Is this really the best wee can do?
Tom says
Shutting the Federal Government down is an assault on us all. Like threatening to default on the national debt, both parties have wrongly used this threat in their political gamesmanship to the detriment of our country and its people. In the current case, I wonder if this is really about the MAGA extremists hoping to derail and delay the federal trials against the former president so that justice cannot be delivered ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
I have always been of the opinion that members of Congress (both houses) should not have special health and retirement benefits and other privileges that differ from what is available to the public at large. Their pay should be part of discretionary spending. That way, they have some skin in the game when voting on bills that affect pay, health, welfare, and retirement benefits such as Social Security and Medicare.
BrigittaV says
How will our military be affected?
Atwp says
Shut it down. Dennis Biden dosent care. What about the Republicans? In your blind eyes they care. Please face reality.
Pogo says
@If only there was a way to find out…
https://www.google.com/search?q=How+the+Federal+Government+Shutdown+Would+Affect+You
Laurel says
The Democrats and Republicans had already previously negotiated this budget continuation of the government. The foolish, clowns and brats on the Republican side, the MAGA nut cases, are holding the whole country hostage to keep their names in the news. They do not give a damn about us. Go vape and grope in public, grab ’em by the pussy fools. The grifting jerks who have shamed the whole Republican Party, and shammed us. My God, when will this crap stop?
Biden should tell them it’s on them, and let the shutdown begin. To hold us all hostage after an already done deal, is now the way for the Boeberts, Greens, Gaetz and the rest of the clowns. Their immature, incredible lack of knowledge on how government works, is staggering. This is their new way, and they will do it from now on. They are unreliable, selfish fools.
Old Guy says
The burn it down caucus in all their glory for sure. The MAGA mindset has become more pervasive and will outlive the former/wannabe again president. Both parties are far from perfect but the extreme MAGA crowd will lead us down the path of authoritarianism if we fail to vote against their candidates.
endless dark money says
hey extremism get votes apparently so i would expect the gop terrorism to continue.
Skibum says
There are serious consequences to any government shutdown, whether or not any individual is personally affected. We all will feel the pain when the credit rating agencies like Moody downgrade America’s national credit rating once again just like it has done before merely at the prospect of a shutdown even though it was averted at the last minute. Wen our allies and other countries we have trade partnerships and other arrangements second guess their partnerships with America because they think our government may not be able to live up to our own international agreements or be able to pay for already negotiated imports, prices may rise or they may back out of these agreements with the U.S. NATO member nations have already been wondering about America’s ongoing commitments, and if you are wondering how that pertains to a government shutdown all you have to do is recall that the MAGA congressmen in the House want ALL military funding for Ukraine struck as a concession for them to (maybe) support funding our own government. A government shutdown is ALWAYS bad for everyone regardless of whether you will be laid off or not receive a paycheck during a shutdown, and it should be avoided at all cost. And someday in the future, our nation would be wise to do what other nations have already done and pass a law in Congress to stop this madness where our congress has to actually debate, agree and vote on continuing to fund the U.S. Government!
Skibum says
Actually, I now realize that I was confusing two issues… funding the government and raising the debt limit. But I am constantly amazed and disheartened regarding the ongoing disfunction and unwillingness to work together in a bipartisan way to resolve both important issues. Too many of our elected officials seem to have personal agendas rather than a vision toward benefiting the American people.
Laurel says
Skibum: I absolutely agree with all you said. You are correct, but somehow the MAGA brats have to be called out once and for all, and dumped from Congress. As it stands now, the far right think what they are doing is good. If you recall, the Republicans running in 2020 claimed a refusal of even a cooperation of 10% across the isle.
Yes, our spending is out of control, but much of our public has no clue how world governments work. They are losing grip with democracy. Who uses what bathroom will solve nothing in our budgeting. That it’s global, not just this guy or that guy. All they see is white man’s last stand, and how to protest it (“I am your retribution”). Americans are becoming increasingly uneducated and easily manipulated by those who benefit from it personally. The media is benefiting from it as well, as this train wreck Trump is everywhere. Personally, I think it’s treason.
Yes a shutdown is bad for more than the reason of getting what one party or the other wants, but if it rids us of these brats, it may actually be worth it. We may have the hope of working together again.