There’s a dangerous myth in Flagler County, and the longer people have lived here, the more they start believing the myth, and spreading it: that Flagler County is immune to hurricanes. That the topography, that the way the shoreline curves just so, that the occluded ocean floor rises toward shore, all ensure that hurricanes veer off, whirl elsewhere, or wobble just enough, the way Hurricane Matthew did in 2016, to spare the county.
None of that is true. None of it has any scientific value. None of it has more validity than the occult, or your inebriated uncle’s guesses. And to go on believing it could lead to the sort of complacency that lowers people’s guard, says Jonathan Lord, Flagler County’s emergency management director.
“Just because we haven’t had one in memory or recent memory doesn’t mean we’re immune to it anywhere in Florida, including Northeast Florida, or Central Florida,” Lord said this morning in an appearance on WNZF’s Free For All Friday. “Flagler County has the potential for a Category Five landfalling storm. I don’t want that. None of us want that. But we do have to be prepared for that.”
Especially ahead of a season that may be the busiest yet.
“A typical average year for named storms, which is tropical storm or larger, is about 14 give or take. And they’re expecting 17, up into the low 20s, depending on who you ask.” Different organizations issue different forecasts. But “the Weather Channel, AccuWeather, all of them agree that this is going to be a very active season, and the number one reason for that is because they are seeing record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. The average number of storms between 1991 and 2020 has been 14.4.
Of the 17 to 25 in the forecast, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
The University of Colorado is forecasting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days, compared to an average of 69 a year in the past 30 years. Eleven of the 23 named storms would be hurricanes, five of them major. “We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” the university’s forecasters said.
Record warmth in the Atlantic and reduced windshear from the Pacific, because the Pacific is getting a bit cooler right now, combines to create those conditions more favorable a season that has weather experts concerned. “Now, does that mean we’re going to have one here, or not?” Lord said. “Absolutely not. They can’t predict with any accuracy seasonally that Florida or Flagler County is going to get a hurricane. That doesn’t exist yet. The technology doesn’t exist for that yet. But they can say hey, we’re going to have a lot in the Atlantic Basin, is what they call our general vicinity.”
The impacts of the last several storm seasons in Flagler County have all been tropical storm-like impacts–from Matthew in 2016, Irma in 2017, Ian and Nicole in 2022. Those impacts were not minor: Matthew and Irma knocked out power for almost the entirety of the county, leaving many without power for days, and the shore was ravaged by by the storms, exacerbating erosion and resulting in the series of beach reconstruction projects that haven’t ceased since.
Flagler County last experienced sustained hurricane force winds in 2004 during Hurricane Charley, and experienced hurricane gusts during Nicole in 2022. Recent memory does not record a direct hit.
“A lot of people say well that’s great. We don’t get hurricanes,” Lord said. “That is definitely not true. The cautionary tale I like to give that is very true, back many many years ago, Hurricane Michael.” The Panhandle never had a Category 5 hurricane. The assumption was that Cat 5 hurricanes were a South Florida problem. Michael turned into a Cat 5 hurricane by landfall.
“That’s the whole purpose of why we have an emergency management team and we work with all of our partners and make sure our community is educated about that, because that is a possibility,” Lord said. “Is it a high possibility? Probably not. But it is a distinct possibility. We need to be ready. We don’t want to be caught off guard and people saying, well I never thought a Category 5 could happen here. Because it very much can.” He stressed: “Risk wise, we are not any less of risk than any other coastal County in Florida.”
It’s also a misconception to think that residents are immune to hurricane impacts inland. Vast swaths of properties flood from storm surge along the Intracoastal, especially in Flagler Beach along Flagler Avenue–even in lesser storms–and vast swaths of properties flood on the west side of the county because the lake system there is connected to the St. Johns River watershed. Equally misconceived, Lord said, is the assumption that people west of I-95 are immune to storm surge. In a calamitous event, the storm surge would affect Palm Coast’s canals.
“The water is going to flow backwards and head into our community” through those canals, Lord said. “It’s a very rare storm that’ll make it past 95. But we have to remember that we have canals that cut through I-95 from the other side. So if the right storm or the right conditions happen, that water can come to the western side of I 95. Add on top of that any potential rain, the rain has nowhere to go because the canals are backed up. So again, I don’t say this to scare people. I just want people to be aware that these are feasible potentials that can happen if the right conditions occur in our community because of a hurricane.”
In other words, Lord was channeling his inner Sinclair Lewis for the benefit of Flagler residents: it can happen here.
Ironically, Flagler County has been so dry in recent weeks that the county declared a seven-week burn ban earlier this week, and has been experiencing the flip side of tropical downpours: such dryness that wildfires are popping up.
“There’s quite a few wildfires throughout the central part of the state,” Lord said, “including a couple we’ve had here in our county the last few weeks or almost the last month or so because we’ve been so dry, but most of the smoke today is actually coming from Volusia and Lake County. Our helicopter was up as I was driving over here and they were spotting fires in the western edges of our county just across the county line.”
A wave in the Caribbean is dumping a lot of rain in that region, and is heading toward the Florida Peninsula. It would bring that rain here Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. If the forecast holds, that will relieve the region from an “extremely dry” spell, Lord said.
Then will come the hurricanes.
Robin says
And Target is selling fireworks for the Fourth of July which is only 27 days away.
Lee says
I pray the Flagler Government squashes all fireworks if we don’t get a substantial RAIN fall here..
Who cares about Fireworks!
Spend your money wisely for a change & buy some Dog or cat food to donate instead if you need to spend.. common sense please.
JimboXYZ says
How about we get thru the drought & water shortage before we start to concern ourselves with hurricanes. Really have to keep your eye on the ball for everything for weather The rain never came Wednesday or Thursday, maybe the Friday thunderstorms happen for relief. But they are predicting wetter days next Monday & beyond. As for Hurricanes, I’ll quote comedian James Gregory (RIP). That’s not complacency, it’s handling a situation as one develops.
JOE D says
After the damage Matthew did to Flagler Beach, and the wind of Ian, then flooding of Nicole, I would be VERY surprised that Flagler Co is getting complacent after those storms and the resulting damage.
When I looked to move to Flagler Beach, I was CAREFUL to pick only ELEVATED properties, despite my agent stating he could show MANY other CHEAPER properties. I told him, “No thanks, I’ll wait for one in the development of my choice.” That turned out to be a wise choice..only minor wind damage (lost my rooftop A/C hurricane cover…IRONIC)…no flooding whatsoever (ground level is 12 ft above sea level, and the living levels are 8ft above that)…hurricane shutters in place. It was not CHEAP, but I’m not going to risk my home investment, nor my SAFETY in retirement, by choosing another location, even though this is a SMALL home (1140 sq ft), 2 bedroom/1.5 bath.
I have a solar battery storage system that is designed to keep the freezer and fridge and strategic lights running for days…again, not cheap. The cost of living in COASTAL FLORIDA. Now even with the discount for hurricane mitigation factors on the property, I worry about the GENERAL home insurance increases to come, based on Florida STATEWIDE price increases.
endangered species says
Didnt ron ban those pesky hurricanes yet. Its totally normal for the ocean to be 99 degrees and has nothing to do with billions of people burning fuel for literally everything lol.
JustBeNicd says
Thank you for that very important article. Time to fat the hurricane kit ready.
Wow says
Are you forgetting that Irma flooded something like 400 homes in Flagler Beach??
You need to calm down says
Mr. Lord is an alarmist. Most likely because he makes his living being one. Government wants to grow and demands more of everything..more funding and more employees. Every year he beats his drum and every storm he cries wolf. Last year, he wanted to evacuate and open shelters when the storm track was not even including Flagler. I work with him and I’m kinda ashamed. Calm down sir, please.
Skibum says
Apparently, the phrase ‘Better safe than sorry” has no meaning to you. Lord’s position as Flagler County’s designated emergency preparedness manager is to plan and coordinate disaster response and to help county residents understand and prepare for the potential risks we face here. I think he and his staff do an admirable job, and obviously a thankless job to some like you, who don’t seem to appreciate the hard work of those who’s job is to help others stay safe from harm during significant events like the many hurricanes that have come way too close for comfort but still impacted our area and caused damage as well as injuries in recent years. And yet, you are embarrassed of him. That tells me a lot about you.
Nancy N. says
I remember that storm…there was very little confidence from the NHC in the forecast track till the last minute and with rapid intensification becoming an increasing phenomenom…well, I’m glad I wasn’t in his shoes. We had a tough enough time making calls about what preparations to make for it for just our family, let alone for a whole county. Prepare needlessly, and you’re going to be attacked for wasting resources and people won’t listen the next time. Don’t prepare, and people and properties get hurt, and you get blamed for that too. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes when it’s not an obvious call either way.
Roy Longo says
Are you fucking kidding me? Lord is doing his job to keep the county and citizens safe and hope they get prepared for a bad storm system. And if you “work with him and I’m kinda ashamed” then move on to another job. And don’t hide behind a fake name.
Shark says
NOAA can’t even predict day to day weather.
Nancy N says
They’re actually quite good at predicting where major fronts and systems (like hurricanes) go. It’s much much harder, however, to forecast on a smaller scale within those systems what the exact conditions will be at a specific spot at a specific time. And that is what we are asking for when we want a weather forecast. The science just doesn’t exist yet with 100% accuracy to tell us it’s 100% going to rain at our house at 3:45 this afternoon.
Skibum says
When my disabled spouse and I bought our home in Palm Coast 14 years ago, planning to move here so he could be near his parents when I retired from my law enforcement career in WA State, I was extremely nervous about living so close to the ever present danger of hurricanes for six months each year. But my father-in-law, who had lived here for the past 25 years, eased my mind about the danger. I remember him telling me that if any hurricane was coming up the east coast of FL out in the Atlantic Ocean, once it got to the outcrop of land at Cape Canaveral they always veer back NE away from landfall due to the topography of the land here. He said he has never had to evacuate during the entire time he has lived here in FL. Well, we moved into our home just 3 streets away from him and within the first 4 years we lived here we had to evacuate twice, both for hurricanes Matthew and Irma. My father-in-law initially refused to evacuate with us the first time, wanting to hunker down at home instead. But we were leaving because of the warnings we received from our county’s emergency management staff and the forecast cone being broadcast by NOAA and local news meteorologists. My father-in-law changed his mind at the very last minute and evacuated with us, only half-heartedly. Once we came back to our neighborhood, living without power for a few days and seeing first-hand all of the damage Matthew caused right here in Palm Coast even though it never made landfall, my father-in-law was shocked and said he was very glad he decided to evacuate with us. When Hurricane Irma was heading toward us, my father-in-law already had his suitcase packed and never put up any argument about getting the hell out of it’s way. Emergency Management staff’s entire focus is on keeping people safe. It may turn out that there was no need to evacuate after all is said and done, but it is much better to evacuate when requested to do so and find out afterward everything is ok, rather than to dismiss the warnings and stay in harm’s way, potentially risking not only your own life, but the lives of first responders who may have to come to save your dumb ass because you were too stubborn to listen to reason.