By Gregory F. Treverton
Israel entered Rafah, a city that marks Gaza’s southern border crossing with Egypt, on May 7, 2024, launching a military offensive that the U.S. and others have cautioned Israel not to pursue.
President Joe Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on May 6 against expanding the Gaza war into Rafah, indicating that this could lead to a shift in U.S. policy on Israel. A divergence over how to handle the war in Gaza prompted the U.S. to place a hold on shipping U.S.-made bombs to Israel.
Rafah is one of the only places in Gaza that has not been destroyed in the Gaza war. It is also a refuge for more than 1 million Palestinians, about half of whom are children, who have been displaced from their homes elsewhere in Gaza because of the conflict.
The Conversation U.S. politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Gregory Treverton, a chair of the National Intelligence Council under the Obama administration and a national security scholar at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, to understand the limits of U.S. political leverage in influencing Israel’s seven-month war with Hamas.
Jehad Alshrafi/Anadolu via Getty Images
Is the US’s warning to Israel typical for their diplomatic relationship?
This is certainly not without precedent. There have been many U.S. presidents and secretaries of state who have been frustrated with Israel over something, going back to at least the 1973 war between Israel and a coalition of Arab countries. The U.S. pressed Israel to adhere to a U.N. Security Council cease-fire resolution then – one sponsored by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union – but Israel, for a time, refused.
Other presidents have been in the position of saying, “Do this,” and the Israeli comeback is always, “Not quite yet.” So this episode, while very blatant, is hardly unique.
Countries are allies because their interests overlap but are not identical. U.S. history is littered with allies that managed to do what they wanted and not what we wanted them to do.
Years ago, when I was at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and would talk about the difficulties of dealing with allies, let alone enemies, a wonderful researcher focused on Israel would comment: “So who ever said it was easy to be a superpower!” Biden would sympathize with that remark.
As Israeli politics and leadership have drifted so far to the right, a lot of the people in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition don’t really care about the U.S. and what it wants. Netanyahu is now very dependent on the far right for his own political survival, so he is likely to listen to his right-wingers, not to the U.S.
So, how much political leverage does the US actually have over Israel?
I think at this point, it is really time for the U.S. to say that it is going to call arms deliveries to Israel into question. Israel is going into Rafah after the U.S. specifically said to please not do this without making sure you can keep most Gazans safe. This does not necessarily require a red line to be drawn – which typically is not very effective – but a clear warning that this decision will influence arms transfers in the future.
The other problem is that while you might assume that Israel is considering how to govern Gaza after the war, there is still no clear, public idea of what the endgame is. How is this supposed to end?
Meanwhile, this escalation is bound to continue polarizing American public opinion on the issue, which is probably an additional reason for the U.S. to try to get the war to stop as soon as possible.
The US is reported to have decided to place a hold on shipping bombs to Israel. Can this influence Israel’s wartime behavior?
It probably doesn’t matter materially in the short run, but psychologically in the longer run, if arms were stopped that would make a difference. Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid and has received more U.S. military assistance than any other country since World War II. By early March this year, the U.S. had made more than 100 arms shipments to Israel since Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7. 2023.
Israel is now risking an escalating confrontation with Hezbollah, a militant group in Lebanon, in the north. It seems to be in Israel’s interest to try to not expand conflict but to limit it.
Jehad Alshrafi/Anadolu via Getty Images
Given this, why do you believe Israel is so intent on going into Rafah?
Across the political spectrum in Israel, there is a sense that invading Rafah has to be done, it has to be finished, in order to eradicate Hamas. The issue is we never knew exactly what finishing means. And most of us in the national security business think there is no way Israel can totally eradicate Hamas.
Before October 2023, Hamas was never popular in Gaza because it didn’t properly govern, but the Israeli attack has made it more popular, especially on the West Bank, because it stood up to Israel and put the issues of the Palestinians back on the agenda after the world, including the Arab world, had forgotten it.
The idea of eradicating Hamas seems to be still where Israelis across the spectrum are focused. Therefore, if the remaining Hamas leaders were thought to be in Rafah, then so be it, they are thinking, on to the attack.
What are the national security implications of Israel going into Rafah?
It does create more instability and increases the risk of a widening war. Even if Iran doesn’t respond, it is likely that some of its proxies, like Hezbollah, will do something that could deepen this conflict. We should use the term proxies carefully, because the U.S. knows from its own experience that you cannot necessarily control proxy governments or militias. But it seems like this is a kind of invitation for at least Iran’s proxies to escalate the conflict.
Gregory F. Treverton is Professor of Practice in International Relations at USC Dornsife, College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
asf says
Never mind that Hamas has been lterally shooting rockets off from Rafah.
A mirror and clue wouldn’t do some “Anti-Zionist” parties any harm.
Ray W. says
You keep trying to twist the argument into a larger anti-Zionist issue.
Many people on this site are opposed to you, on an individual basis. They respond to your poorly reasoned and vengeful comments. You are the direct subject of their comments. No one else. No larger Jewish community. Just you.
A person can support Israel and oppose all murderous religious extremist Jewish settlers. A person can support Israel and oppose you for your consistent efforts to misinform and disinform people. A person can support Israel and oppose the indiscriminate slaughter of children in Gaza. A person can condemn the actions of Hamas on October 7 and also condemn many of the actions of rogue IDF soldiers and pilots.
Look in the mirror and get a clue. You insist that only you can be right on this issue and that anyone who disagrees with you must automatically by anti-Zionist. If your voice is representative of the mainstream voice of the Israeli Jewish people, you are the enemy of the hope that was and still can be Israel. The Greeks understood this 2500 years ago. Vengeance will never be the answer.
Frank Charles Basile says
I agree with what he said
Deirdre says
I email Biden every day ([email protected]) begging him to cut Israel off from money and weapons – we’re in this war with Israel against the people in Gaza, we’re more than just facilitators.
Hamas will survive even if under a different name, this injustice will not end terrorism with a disempowered population.
The occupation and the siege need to end. Everything that’s happened is planting the seeds of future terrorism throughout the Middle East in my opinion.
I wouldn’t be surprised that this war will spread, and that American troops will end up going there. I’d be surprised if they didn’t, and this time a lot of countries will be involved, a potential WWIII and that not just my opinion.
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Plus, if anyone thinks Israel killing tens of thousands of people is OK in order to wipe out Hamas, doesn’t it bother anyone that their tax money is being used for a foreign countries war? That Netanyahu is calling the shots, not Biden, even though we’re funding it?
He’s the only one in the world that could put the brakes on this but he won’t. Was the AIPAC money worth it? Seems most politicians put their support behind groups that keep them in power and rich.
I definitely see the US as complicit in genocide, and it breaks my heart. I’m enraged that my tax money is being used for this! Biden supports this extremest government no matter what they do, more than he does the American people, no matter what they say.
Most Americans want a cease fire but our government isn’t listening. THEY are supposed to work for us, not the other way around.
I think it will cost Biden the election regardless, he’s losing his base, so in every email I beg him to get out of the race, retire immediately, so people have a better choice in the election. I had no idea how corrupt practically everyone in Washington is, in both parties.
It’s interesting that the one issue everyone agrees on regardless of party is sending Israel more and more money and weapons, with no contingencies.
To clarify, since apparently people often argue about a point they don’t agree with or understand, I’m not pro terrorist, I’m not pro Hamas, I’m not anti-Semitic, but I care about any innocent human being that is suffering and being murdered in an ethnic cleansing operation, no matter who is doing it. The same can be said about 99% of demonstrators no matter what politicians and the media say.
This isn’t a Jewish war against Muslims, it’s choices made by Israel’s government, and even Israelis want Netanyahu out! He’ll never stop this war because he’ll lose power and probably go to jail. If this war ends he’ll provoke another one, it’s in his best interest.
I hope the hostages will be returned soon, what happened to them is heartbreaking, it was a horrible attack by terrorists to a civilian population. They would be home already if a cease-fire was agreed to by Israel, which everyone wants except this extremist right wing government.
What’s happening in Gaza is horrendous, it’s unbearable to think about, but I have an obligation to. We all do, worldwide. It’s not going to end without a worldwide movement to stop it, and that seems to be happening.
I’m doing what I can (which isn’t much); daily letter writing campaign, signing petitions, giving money when I can. I hope more people will get involved before every Palestinian is wiped off the face of the earth. Keep in mind most of the people being murdered and starved to death are children, not terrorists.
This is no accident, none of these war atrocities are accidental. Killing humanitarian aid workers, hospital workers, journalists etc.
None of this is a byproduct of war, it’s designed to wipe out an entire population of people, so the Gaza strip will be part of Israel – it’s pretty good real estate. After this they’ll finish off the Palestinians in the West Bank. Killing Palestinian people has been going on for generations.
Please everyone get involved! If you think this is about fighting terrorism only, look at what’s actually happening.
hippy says
You are right Hamas will survive under a different name until people like you, the media and students who have no clue of what is going on over there, start trying to fix the problem and start protesting about the funding of Hamas and the other extremist groups that want the destruction and elimination of Israel. That includes the Palestinians who voted in Hamas as their “government”. The same Palestinians by the way who were cheering on 9/11 when innocent Americans lost their lives.
You are also wrong. This is about fighting terrorist and those who fund it by proxy. Fix the root of the problem, stop allowing terrorists to hide behind civilians who they know and want to be killed for a photo op. Until the world fixes the reel problem this never ends.
Marek says
I agree . This war is a result of the Hamas attack and slaughter of the innocent civilians . The Palestinians are paying the price for supporting Hamas.
Hippy says
Go back to the beginning…. This war is the result of Iran and others funding Hamas and other terrorist groups. Stop that funding and this all stops. Cut off the head of the snake. Destroy Hamas and you have done a good thing but they do comeback under a different name funded by the same organizations.
Ray W. says
To paraphrase Churchill: This is not the beginning. It is not the end of the beginning. But it might be the beginning of the end.
Religious extremists, both Jewish and Palestinian Arab, have been killing each other for millennia. There are two dangerous and unthinking snakes in need of removal from any form of political power in the region. Until Hamas and the religious extremist Jewish settler movement are both removed from all positions of political power, there will never be peace in Palestine.
Any one-sided solution, such as yours, is an exercise in foolish hoping.
dave says
Can Biden Stop Israeli Sadism ; No. I find both Israeli and Hamas both guilty of sadism. Lets not forget. Oct 2023. The JC. ” Hamas terrorists crossed the border into Israel and massacred more than 1,100 Israelis. The depths of Hamas’s sadism are almost too sickening to comprehend. Babies and children butchered. Parents murdered in front of their children. Families bound together and then burned alive. Others were tortured, and their bodies mutilated while both alive and dead.
Even the harshest opponents of Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza acknowledge, albeit often half-heartedly, that Hamas acted with brutality on October 7 in killing innocents. But many of those same critics refuse to acknowledge the widespread sexual assaults against Israeli women that day.
Hamas terrorists carried out a hunting expedition to catch young men and women who attempted to escape the carnage at the music festival, dragging them by the hair screaming. The sexual violence targeted men, women and girls and included binding their bodies, mutilating genitals and the bodies of both males and females with knives and in some cases inserting weapons inside the genitals.
In most cases, the victims were executed either during the rape or after.”
How soon people forget what actually started all of this ongoing destruction and violence. .The world is full of hate and it’s everywhere. Can Biden fix that, No.
William Lyon says
Hamas built its entire military infrastructure under civilian homes, hospitals and businesses so that Israel would get bad press after Israel responded militarily to Hamas’ unprovoked attack on Israel. The money used to build that infrastructure came from countries that had contributed monies to improve the civilian infrastructure in Gaza. Sure enough, that is what has happened and is still happening. Hamas purposely took well over 100 civilian hostages to place them in those underground tunnels for additional protection, knowing that would heavily deter Israel from attacking the tunnels. Sure enough, that has happened. It is difficult to say the population is innocent since a majority of voters in Gaza chose Hamas, a known terrorist organization, as their government. Free Palestine? There is no Palestine because, when the United Nations tried to create Palestine after WWII, the people refused to accept statehood. So, how can Palestine be saved if there is no Palestine? It is not too late for the Gazans to ask the UN to create a Palestinian state. Israel is not going anywhere but may give up some of its territory to create a state of Palestine if the residents and leaders involved would sit down and be rational and reasonable.
Joe D says
?Clarfication of the introduction to this article?
It’s CLEAR after much MEDIA wrangling, that the “Ceasefire” that HAMAS had supposedly AGREED too, was negotiated by Egypt, and Qatar (without ISRAELI direct agreement). Once the DETAILS of what HAMAS was agreeing to was explained in the press, it was CLEAR that ISRAEL hadn’t (and likely WASN’T going to) agree to those terms.
So this isn’t exactly Israel “backing down” on a mutually agreed on proposal, this was a PREMATURE ( for whatever reason) announcement of a ceasefire agreement that had never been made.
That being said, even with all the atrocities committed by Hamas in the attach in 2023…Israel cannot justify the total annihilation of the Palestinian people in its efforts to rout out Hamas. I applaud the efforts of the Biden administration to FINALLY put their foot down, in the DELAY in transfer of weapons to Israel for offensives in RAFA, which the US has warned Israel not to do.
There HAS to be some SANITY used on BOTH SIDES to REASONABLY resolve this conflict that is fast becoming a HUMANITARIAN CRISIS in Gaza
Barbara says
Stop the war? Sure! All Hamas has to do is release all the hostages. They could have done that months ago.
Pogo says
@For Sale
By Sinwar, Netanyahu, Kushner, and Trump, LLC (Low Life Criminals)
Never planned, never built, bomb shelters in Gaza.
Inquiries not available.
Brian says
The gutless, lying, stuttering stumblebum Biden couldn’t stop a runny nose. LBJ decided not to run again because of Vietnam, and this mess is going to be Bidens Vietnam – hopefully, anyway.
Lance Alred says
There is only one way to have peace. That way is for Israel to win the war and completely annihilate Hamas.
The people who stay in the area, know full well, the situation. The fact that they allow themselves and everyone else to use them as fodder for an irrational antiquated idea of “Israel shouldn’t exist” is shameful.
Bill C says
Israel’s expansion into Gaza and the West Bank is reminiscent of a concept from American history- Manifest Destiny: “The self-serving concept of manifest destiny, the belief that the expansion of the United States was divinely ordained, justifiable, and inevitable, was used to rationalize the removal of American Indians from their native homelands…
In almost every case, the Indians were not provided with the adequate supplies they were promised, and as a result many perished on the forced migration due to disease and starvation. Of the 15,000 Creek who marched to their new home in Oklahoma, only 3,500 survived the journey. Similarly, of the 16,000 Cherokee who were forced to move from several south-eastern states to present-day Oklahoma, 4,000 died due to disease, starvation, and adverse weather conditions. In all, tens of thousands of American Indians, some estimates are close to 100,000, lost their lives and their homelands in the series of forced migrations which lasted through the 1840s. ”
– Smithsonian Museum on “Manifest Destiny and Indian Removal”.
Kennan says
Well, it’s clear that some of you are going to have to be spoonfed fax, taught how to chew and maybe have your hands held.
What is the exchange rate on human lives? What is it? It’s not good if you’re an Arab.
It’s shocking to me that we are still having this conversation seven months into this genocide.
I condemn what Hamas did on October 7, 2023, but they have put forth A permanent cease-fire deal on the table several times and have been rejected every time.
Here’s an important tip. Gaza has been destroyed. There is almost nothing left. Netanyahu knows this! AC fire doesn’t get him what he wants. He doesn’t want a two state solution, but somehow the Biden administration pretends he does. Do I have to connect the dots for you?
I was lucky enough to travel And live in the Middle East with my dad who was a Middle East expert. Well, i’ve learned a few things.
This is the second “Nakba” only much much worse. No water. No electricity. All before major bombing begins. Send Palestinians to the West Bank. Bomb them. Send them to East Gaza. Bomb them. Send them to Central Gazza. Bomb them. Now we have them corralled in Rafa. The Biden administration has the audacity to say that an attack on Raffa is unacceptable. Where have you been for the last Seven months? Joe Biden will do nothing, and Netanyahu knows it. The state department can answer any questions anymore, because they are in complete contradiction of themselves.
For the last seven months in real time, the IDF has blocked almost all humanitarian aid to civilians, they have blown up every hospital in Gaza, claiming Hamas had secret tunnels under Al Shifa Hospital. Tunnels Israel built in the 1980s by the way. No Hamas! Just children having body parts amputated without anesthesia. Hundreds, by the way. Sulfur bombs being used burning women and children. Illegal by international law ! Another fun fact.
About 50,000 dead. Mostly women and children. Over 100 reporters killed. UN workers and humanitarian aid targeted and killed. CNN kept off the ground and Al Jazeera news, organization infiltrated, and closed. Thousands of bodies buried in shallow graves By the IDF.
This is a genocide! Israel uses multimillion dollar jets to drop bombs so they can call it a war. Oh, by the way.! Our tax dollars paid for those weapons and jets.
What is happening now is a 21st century “Arab Holocaust”. The holocaust of World War II was horrible, especially in terms of numbers, but this in many ways could end up just as bad, because it is not being done in the shadows. It is being done in real time in front of the whole world. In front of the world superpower America. Who refuses to do anything about it.
Mark my words. When Gazza is completely gone after Rafa is destroyed, Joe Biden, the administration and the state department will say they did all they could. That will be another lie. Israel will continue to use the holocaust as a wedge point to Garner support for the holocaust. They Just administered on Palestinians.
When this is all over, the US will run as far away from this as they can.
God bless America.
Pogo says
@Yes, yes
The solution to the brutality of total war is the enlightened kindness of Trump.
Dennis C Rathsam says
This latest Biden moment, is caused by the radical wing of the party! This is the last straw for Biden. He worry,s so much about Michigan, & the Arab population there, he needs thier votes…Not realizing there are more Jewish voters, around the country than there are Arab voters. The weapons were all ready to go, until Biden steped in Israel has been our ally for years,they didnt want this war, but they will finish it & remove all the terrorist. TRUMP, had the Middle East, in harmony, just like Ukraine. Nobody invaded any other country…. Until Biden was installed. Thank god this latest Biden move will make all the Jews vote for TRUMP. Once again Biden prooves he,s not fit to lead!
Kennan says
Dennis i hear what your saying. BIDEN is not the guy for the job, especially the middle east. I fear however; that TRUMP or anyone else,except maybe JIMMY CARTER would completely fuck up the middle east! We have shown in at least the last 50 years that we are completely beholden to Israel, no matter what, no matter how. we have to remember that the treatment of Arabs by ZIONIST JEWS OVER THE LAST 70 YEARS, WITH OUR HELP I MIGHT ADD, HAS CREATED THE TERRORIST CELLS WE SEE TODAY.
We carry much of the responsibility for this! This does not make terrorism right, but when people are subjugated in the the worlds ‘largest open air prison”, which expresses that one group of people is better than another: Then this is what happens. How can a group of people kick out 750,000 people of their land with the help of the U.S. and UK (the NAKBA) in 1948 in the wake of a Holocaust they endured? How does that work?
Nancy N. says
No, Trump just rolled over and played dead while his buddy Putin “annexed” more and more of Crimea every day in a stealth invasion that was the precursor to what is happening now in Ukraine. And allowed the Netanyahu government to engage in more and more aggressive settlements in occupied territories they shouldn’t be in, and even moved the embassy to Jerusalem – setting the stage for the violence happening now.
Don’t kid yourself that it was all that rosy before President Biden took over. It was just being done in the shadows before then.