By Martin Kear
Australia will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly meeting in September, joining the United Kingdom, Canada and France in taking the historic step.
Recognising a Palestinian state is at one level symbolic – it signals a growing global consensus behind the rights of Palestinians to have their own state. In the short term, it won’t impact the situation on the ground in Gaza.
Practically speaking, the formation of a future Palestinian state consisting of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is far more difficult to achieve.
The Israeli government has ruled out a two-state solution and reacted with fury to the moves by the four G20 members to recognise Palestine. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the decision “shameful”.
So, what are the political issues that need to be resolved before a Palestinian state becomes a reality? And what is the point of recognition if it doesn’t overcome these seemingly intractable obstacles?
Settlements have exploded
The first problem is what to do about Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which the International Court of Justice has declared are illegal.
Since 1967, Israel has constructed these settlements with two goals in mind: prevent any future division of Jerusalem, and expropriate sufficient territory to make a Palestinian state impossible. There are now more than 500,000 settlers in the West Bank and 233,000 in East Jerusalem.
Palestinians see East Jerusalem as an indispensable part of any future state. They will never countenance a state without it as their capital.
In May, the Israeli government announced it would also build 22 new settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem – the largest settler expansion in decades. Defence Minister Israel Katz described this as a “strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel”.
The Israeli government has also moved closer to fully annexing the West Bank in recent months.
Geographical complexities of a future state
Second is the issue of a future border between a Palestinian state and Israel.
The demarcations of the Gaza Strip, West Bank and East Jerusalem are not internationally recognised borders. Rather, they are the ceasefire lines, known as the “Green Line”, from the 1948 War that saw the creation of Israel.
However, in the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel captured and occupied the West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula (since returned), and Syria’s Golan Heights. And successive Israeli governments have used the construction of settlements in the occupied territories, alongside expansive infrastructure, to create new “facts on the ground”.
Israel solidifies its hold on this territory by designating it as “state land”, meaning it no longer recognises Palestinian ownership, further inhibiting the possibility of a future Palestinian state.
For example, according to research by Israeli professor Neve Gordon, Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries covered approximately seven square kilometres before 1967. Since then, Israeli settlement construction has expanded its eastern boundaries, so it now now covers about 70 square km.
Israel also uses its Separation Wall or Barrier, which runs for around 700km through the West Bank and East Jerusalem, to further expropriate Palestinian territory.
According to a 2013 book by researchers Ariella Azoulay and Adi Ophir, the wall is part of the Israeli government’s policy of cleansing Israeli space of any Palestinian presence. It breaks up contiguous Palestinian urban and rural spaces, cutting off some 150 Palestinian communities from their farmland and pastureland.
The barrier is reinforced by other methods of separation, such as checkpoints, earth mounds, roadblocks, trenches, road gates and barriers, and earth walls.
Then there is the complex geography of Israel’s occupation in the West Bank.
Under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the West Bank was divided into three areas, labelled Area A, Area B and Area C.
In Area A, which consists of 18% of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority exercises majority control. Area B is under joint Israeli-Palestinian authority. Area C, which comprises 60% of the West Bank, is under full Israeli control.
Administrative control was meant to be gradually transferred to Palestinian control under the Oslo Accords, but this never happened.
Areas A and B are today separated into many small divisions that remain isolated from one another due to Israeli control over Area C. This deliberate ghettoisation creates separate rules, laws and norms in the West Bank that are intended to prevent freedom of movement between the Palestinian zones and inhibit the realisation of a Palestinian state.
Who will govern a future state?
Finally, there are the conditions that Western governments have placed on recognition of a Palestinian state, which rob Palestinians of their agency.
Chief among these is the stipulation that Hamas will not play a role in the governance of a future Palestinian state. This has been backed by the Arab League, which has also called for Hamas to disarm and relinquish power in Gaza.
Fatah and Hamas are currently the only two movements in Palestinian politics capable of forming a government. In a May poll, 32% of respondents in both Gaza and the West Bank said they preferred Hamas, compared with 21% support for Fatah. One-third did not support either or had no opinion.
Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, is deeply unpopular, with 80% of Palestinians wanting him to resign.
A “reformed” Palestinian Authority is the West’s preferred option to govern a future Palestinian state. But if Western powers deny Palestinians the opportunity to elect a government of their choosing by dictating who can participate, the new government would likely be seen as illegitimate.
This risks repeating the mistakes of Western attempts to install governments of their choosing in Iraq and Afghanistan. It also plays into the hands of Hamas hardliners, who mistrust democracy and see it as a tool to impose puppet governments in Palestine, as well as Israel’s narrative that Palestinians are incapable of governing themselves.
Redressing these issues and the myriad others will take time, money and considerable effort. The question is, how much political capital are the leaders of France, the UK, Canada and Australia (and others) willing to expend to ensure their recognition of Palestine results in an actual state?
What if Israel refuses to dismantle its settlements and Separation Wall, and moves ahead with annexing the West Bank? What are these Western leaders willing or able to do? In the past, they have been unwilling to do more than issue strongly worded statements in the face of Israeli refusals to advance the two-state solution.
Given these doubts around the political will and actual power of Western states to compel Israel to agree to the two-state solution, it begs the question: what and who is recognition for?
Martin Kear is Sessional Lecturer at the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney.
Deborah Coffey says
This is a good thing. The Israelis have become the terrorists, the very thing they despise.
JC says
Palestinian State is impossible since the Palestinians themselves don’t have anything to offer to the world. All of this is about money and the Arab Nations/Israel/Western Nations don’t give two shits about them. The Arab Nations would love to just have a nuke over Gaza and the West Bank to kill the Palestinians so they can get rid of the victimhood of the people once and for all. I know too many Arabs over the years who are also sick of the tired of the Palestinians and their backstabbing ways.
Pierre Tristam says
@JC, there are roughly 4.5 million people in Kentucky. There are roughly 4.5 million people in Gaza and the West Bank. It is not your place or mine to judge whether people in Kentucky have any more to offer or not to offer the world than do the people in Gaza and the West Bank. The more notable point is whether, or how, we live in a world where 4.5 million Palestinians have any less of a right to a state than do 4.5 million Kentuckians. And let’s skip the bullshit about Palestinian “terrorism,” now that we see every day that Israeli terrorism/atrocities/war crimes are to the Palestinian equivalent what an ICBM is to a .22.
JC says
I have my opinion and I am sticking to it, just like yours. I met plenty of Palestinians who live in Jacksonville over the years and they mostly said the real issue about the conflict is about money, not about the lives. It is one giant proxy battle and everyone knows it. Deep down inside the Saudis, UAE, and the other Sunni Nations in the region wish the Palestinians can just go away since they are doing the victimhood thing for too long. They don’t give two craps if someone kill them all, and that is the reality since you know that part of the world people think like a tribe and they don’t have problems if one enemy tribe goes away.
Most of the Palestinians that I met in Jacksonville were the Christians who left the West Bank because the Muslims more/less kicked them out. They aren’t the fans of Israel but they are super not a fan of the Palestinian Muslims who want to act like a third-world nation with their victimhood. If they want to act like animals, they deserve what they get I am sorry. I don’t give a crap about them, the world doesn’t care about them because they always pick the wrong answer to everything since You talk with some of the Sunni Arabs from Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and they wish the Palestinians can go away. Now this doesn’t mean Israel is right on everything and I even think their actions are going a little too far (including them trying to go back into Gaza), but I don’t feel any real feelings if the people in the Gaza get their punishment for doing the wrong decisions for decades and want to be controlled by corrupt politicians who just want to take all the aid money and become billionaires.
Kennan says
A Palestinian state is more than likely unattainable as long as the US support for Israel remains intact. A Palestinian state is a challenge because there is barely anything left now.
Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF are more interested in a”Greater Israel” which of course includes all of Gaza. And even more daunting challenge is that no matter what, Gaza would take between 10 and 15 years to remove 60,000,000 tons of rubble even before rebuilding took place. Who would they rebuild for? If you are Israel.; it’s certainly not Palestine. Netanyahu made that quite clear, and as Israel goes….. so does the United States.
What makes the situation in Gaza is so unbelievably dire is the US’s stance on Israel, C-Spire, and of course, the billions of dollars in annual support for weapons to kill Palestinians in Gaza, With impunity I might add.
There is virtually nothing left of Gaza now. All the talk of the cease-fire is too little too late. Gaza has been effectively destroyed. We now see G20 countries like Spain, England, and France with support for Palestinian statehood, but at this point it’s really to take pressure off their governments from protests and such. Again…. Support from European nations, although encouraged, do very little until the United States says,” No more”. “ No more”. No more cash. No more weapons to administer this.” Modern day holocaust”. A holocaust in real time. A holocaust that Hitler tried to hide and Netanyahu does not. Brazen. It gives the middle finger to the rest of the world and the United States condones it.
The equations simple. The ax obvious. The manufactured consent continues to fall apart time after time. The conflation of Hamas with Palestinians? A complete failure.
The continued” Okey-doke” Being attempted by the current administration as well as many very weak Democrats, will ruin this country internationally. The Trump administration would love to convince you that like.” Clint Eastwood, we ride alone”. In terms of policies abroad as well as respect…. SUICIDAL . We will never recover, and it will affect us in the worst ways in international trade. Oh, and let’s not forget that it turns us into Nazis.
Millions of Gazans are being forced to leave in order to complete the ethnic cleansing. 500,000 are on the brink of starvation. Pictures, videos say 1000 words and none of them are good. We as a country should not be associated with this. It’s shameful, but our leaders are bought and sold by Israel. Red and Blue By the magic that is BLACK..
Kennan says
Hey, thanks JC! thanks for vomiting every Israeli bullshit talking point to justify the killing of civilians on our dime.
You know nothing about Palestinians. Palestinians that happened to be prisoners on their own land.
Well, done JC! Your ignorance is only surpassed by your blunt force racism. Again. Well done.
Sherry says
Truly excellent comments Kennan! Most certainly ditto from me on all accounts, including (legend in his own mind) racist JC!
BillC says
@JC Kentucky is 40,400 sq. miles. Gaza and West Bank together are 2,300 sq. miles. As PT points out, equal population for Kentucky and Gaza/W.Bank.
JC says
The folks who didn’t read carefully my second comment aren’t thinking about this carefully at all. Calling my viewpoints Israeli bullshit when my life experiences is showing something completely different. Lets go over it again with extra detail:
*Palestinians exist in Jacksonville, which isn’t far from Palm Coast. When I spoken to Palestinians over the years most where the Christians who escaped the West Bank. I was super clear that they aren’t fan of the Israelis but they are super not a fan of the Palestinian Muslims who more/less kicked them out of their land. This is a very similar story of the Iraqi Christians and the Syrian Christians that I bump into over the years who share their hostility of the Muslims and also wasn’t the biggest fans of the Palestinians and the Israelis over the decades. The only one Palestinian Muslim that I spoke to in the past stated the issue with Gaza with the West Bank is more about money than morals. The people with the money don’t give a shit about the Palestinians and wish they would just get out of Gaza and West Bank. Who are the people with the money, well it is Americans, Israelis, UAE, Saudis, and most of The Sunni Nations in the Middle East.
*You guys can’t also between the lines. Middle East is not a place of Western Values. You are dealing with a group of tribal people who think they are always right and the other side must die. Go tell the Jordanians about the Palestinians, same for Egypt and Lebanon about the Palestinians. These places don’t want these people in their lands after they were backstab by the Palestinians in the past. These tribal people will remember the sins of these people for decades and there’s nothing you guys can do about it. There is a major reason the Sunni Nations in the Middle East don’t want nothing to do with backstabbers. There are good reasons Egypt will not want Gaza back, and there were multiple reasons why the Jordanian Kingdom gave up the West Bank. Before people say Israel is a western value nation, well it kind of is but also isn’t. The ultra right-wing Israelis act very similar to Hamas in Gaza, saying their side is the best and the other side must die. These are the type of people who are an eye for an eye. Ethnic cleansing? Oh please, this is normal in that part of the world whenever we like it or not. These are tribal people, regardless of the side. Saudis wish they can kill a group of Shi’as from Iran as a way to control their power in the Middle East.
*Regarding Palestinians that happened to be prisoners in their own land: Who fault is it? The Palestinians. Blame the PLO and their terrorist leader, the infamous Yasser Arafat, and the Arab League for making so much terrible stupid mistakes it make the Arabs look like complete fools. The PLO gets the blame for all their backstabbing in Jordan, the BS they did in Lebanon that sadly helped cause the first Civil War (which Israel involvement did not help at all), and not willing to deal in good faith. Blame the Arab League since their efforts started the War in 1948, the 1967 war, and the Yom Kippur war. Also blame the Arab League for rejecting the land deal the UN was trying to broker Pre-1948. Also blame the Palestinians for picking some of the most terrible/corrupt leaders in the West Bank and Gaza, robbing the aid that’s supposed to go to the people into their leader’s pockets (research why these politicians are rich). It is like a video game where you have to pick a decision, but the joke is that the Arab League/Palestinians keep selecting the wrong option for decades.
Before everyone get their pitchforks out, you will also know that there’s other people who have similar viewpoint as I am and they also happen to be history buffs that is aware of the situation. They also see the situation where the Palestinians are playing victimhood for decades even when their legitimate government of Gaza started Oct 7th and still haven’t returned all the hostages. With decades of poor decisions, you will find that people don’t care anymore, and they don’t care about that group of people who keep making the wrong decisions on just about everything. You know who also thinks like this as well? Almost all of the Sunni Nation governments in the Middle East who are doing lip-service that they support the Palestinians, but don’t give two shits about them and wish deep down inside that Israel can just nuke/kill them all. As I previously stated, these are tribal people.
Kennan says
First of all: PALESTINIANS have plenty to offer the world. I will try to be far less cruel to you than you were to an entire race of people.
You have some personal experiences with Palestinians in Jacksonville, some Christian, and maybe some other Arabs. I will go out on a not too risky, limb, and say that you’ve talked to maybe 10 Palestinians in your life. You have made one very critical mistake. You cannot make your own personal experiences, although important, encapsulate and entire people. An entire race. There has always been secular in fighting among religions in the Middle East.
Palestinians are looking for a way to get their occupiers off their land. Over the last seven decades after they were between 750,000 and 1 million Palestinians pushed off their land in 1948.
These people have been subjugated and humiliated for all this time. Children, grandchildren, being born into an open air prison run by Israel. 78 years! Imagine what that alone does to a person psyche. Not thinking you’re worth it. Being told you are a dog. An animal. Decade after decade after decade.
All of this gets worse and worse as Israel gets more and more weapons, billions of dollars annually so that they can have the most powerful military in the Middle East. Maybe not the numbers, but American weapons and American tax dollars.
October 7 was never condoned by anyone, an idiots that makes statements about college students that are fighting for Palestinian freedom, and for them to simply be treated like human beings under every human rights law known to man.
The bow has broke. The dam has burst. Yet we do nothing.
Everyone sees it. Israel is a pariah state. We are now a pariah state. You use religion, the PLO, Christians leaving the West Bank in the 60s, the Yom Kipur war. I don’t agree with everything the PLO does. I certainly don’t agree with anything Hamas does. None of this has anything to do with the reality on the ground for the last two years! Zero! None of it. I don’t care about God. I don’t care about Buddha. I don’t care about Allah. I don’t care about any of it. None of it addresses the human needs of the Palestinian people now.
My father was one of the pre-eminent Middle East experts of his day. A Georgetown professor who did work for both the state department, and our governments, Middle East Bureau. He was an Atheist , but had respect for people that believed otherwise. He instilled the values in me to keep my eye on the ball, hopefully. To understand, the humanity is the most important value.
Let me be blunt. I have enough sense to know that Jewish people are not the problem, the problem is the Zionist Israelis that have been running Israel since day one or evil incarnate. It is presenting itself in no uncertain terms right now. In a world that can see it, can feel it, can starve from it, and we’ll ultimately be judged for it. SEVERELY.