Helene Will Be Major Hurricane by Landfall in Big Bend, Flagler at Edge of Concerns; Expect Messy Thursday

Last Updated: 12:56 p.m.

Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to strengthen and move rapidly, becoming a major Category 3 hurricane–with winds above 111 miles per hour–before landfall along Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coasts on Thursday evening. Helene will become very large, so impacts will be experienced far from the center. The potential for direct impacts is increasing for northeast Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, with local impacts including heavy rain and some flooding possible beginning on Wednesday night and lasting through early Friday morning. Thursday will be messy locally.

Flagler County is at the southeastern edge of the tropical storm watch zone. It will start to feel outer-band effects of the storm as early as today, with some wind gusts of up to 30 miles per hour inland and on the barrier island, including Flagler Beach and Beverly Beach, and up to 24 mph in Palm Coast, with increasing chances of showers as the day progresses into evening. Rainfall could total 1 to 2 inches overnight tonight.




Tropical storm conditions are expected Thursday and Thursday night inland and on the barrier island, with slightly less intensity in Palm Coast. Sunshine should return Friday, with lingering wind and wind gusts of up to 30 mph. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Flood watches have been expanded across northeast Florida for potential impacts from Helene. Those impacts are expected to take a toll on Flagler County’s freshly renourished beaches, which–even before the storm–have already suffered some carving erosion, forming cliffs where the new white sands previously sloped down to the surf. Helene will likely carve out more sand.

Early Wednesday morning Helene was still under just hurricane status, its sustained winds at 65 mph (it becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph), but it was strengthening rapidly and was expected to be a hurricane before noon. It was threading the needle between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and the western edge of Cuba, bringing rain and winds to Cancun on one side and the area around Cape San Antonio and the thinly populated Guanahacabibes Peninsula on the other.
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Helene is expected to make a turn toward the north and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with all models showing intensification, with conservative estimates of 120 mph winds by the time it strikes land. If there is a silver lining it is in the speed of the storm: it will cut through Big Bend rapidly, preventing lingering effects from wind or rain, and weaken as it moves inland, though areas of Southwest Georgia could see some severe impacts, as will the Tallahassee area.




“Helene’s wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size,” the National Hurricane Center cautions. “Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.” The risks include landslides in the southern Appalachians, as mountains damaged by surface coal mining and mountaintop removal, weakened without trees, are more prone to slide.

Locally, some closures are expected to–like rain–start to accumulate today. Flagler County schools announced the district will be closed Thursday, but will keep Wednesday activities as scheduled. No decision has been made for Friday in Flagler schools yet. Volusia County schools cancelled Wednesday afterschool activities and will be closed Thursday. Daytona State College is canceling all classes and assignments (in-person and online), and activities on all campuses Thursday, and plans to reopen Friday. Castillo de San Marcos National Monument and Fort Matanzas National Monument in St. Augustine closed starting Wednesday. Flagler Tiger Bay was scheduled to host a candidate forum at the Palm Coast Community Center this evening. That event was still on, according to an announcement posted by the organization on its Facebook page around 7 this morning.

Another tropical disturbance with an 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm is churning in the east-central Atlantic. “Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center states. But its path even if and when it forms is expected to make a sharp northerly, then northeasterly turn in the middle of the Atlantic, sparing the Caribbean and the American mainland.




Florida’s Big Bend may feel like the weather gods have it in for them: Helene will be the third hurricane to slam the area in 13 months. Hurricane Debby made landfall there as a Category 1 storm on Aug. 5. Hurricane Idalia made landfall there as a Category 3 hurricane (winds of 115 mph) on Aug. 30, 2023,near Keaton Beach, with a storm surge of 7 to 12 feet. Big Bend is more sparsely populated than areas to its east and west. Big Bend was not used to storms. Idalia was only the third-strongest hurricane to hit the area behind a 1896 Cedar Key Hurricane and Hurricane Easy in 1950. Idalia caused one direct and three indirect fatalities in Florida, and seven more direct fatalities in other states, all from dying in the surf.