For the 17h straight year, and despite population growth that ranks Flagler County among the fastest growing in the state, Flagler County’s public schools’ enrollment has failed to grow.
At a school board meeting on Tuesday, Board member Colleen Conklin said development in the county was continuing “in leaps and bounds.” She had just attended the periodic meeting of local government representatives to discuss how that development has been affecting school enrollment and the fees builders pay to defray the cost of new schools–if new schools are needed.
What Conklin did not say is that in spite of growth that added 16,000 new residents to the county in three years, in spite of Palm Coast, the county and Flagler Beach issuing certificates of occupancy for some 3,200 housing units in 2023 alone, and in spite of similar growth trends in 2024, Flagler County schools are simply not attracting enough students to reflect that growth.
Students are going to private schools, to virtual schools, and staying home to homeschool: the number of homeschooled students has grown 58 percent in six years, from 706 in the 2017-18 school year to 1,119 this school year. They’re just not enrolling in Flagler’s traditional public schools.
Enrollment in the district’s nine traditional schools in May, at the end of the school year, was 12,659–almost the exact enrollment in the 2008-09 school year. It has fluctuated up and down since, and this May’s enrollment is up by 300 over last year, but it is hardly an increase over pre-Covid enrollment.
Three years ago the district made a big pitch to double school impact fees, arguing that an enrollment surge was coming, that it needed to build a new school by mid-decade, that it didn’t want to be behind. School impact fees are the one-time fee builders and developers pay for every housing unit they build. The fees defray the cost of new school construction. The School Board voted to increase the impact fee, which had budged since 2005, from $3,600 to $7,175.
Builders and the County Commission argued then that 14 straight years of flat enrollment did not support doubling the fees. They opposed that sharp of an increase. School officials considered the opposition deluded and insisted that growth was on its way. How could it not be, with so much construction happening everywhere?
In the end, the county, which had the authority to ratify the new impact fee, agreed only to a fee of $5,450 for single-family homes, with an allowance for a $500 increase for every additional 500 students enrolled. Even that incremental enrollment has not materialized.
The officials gathered around the table at the latest ILA meeting on June 12 were oddly muted about the anemic enrollment. (ILA stands for Interlocal Agreement, reflecting the joint agreement that controls how school impact fees are levied.) All the focus was on growth in general, though William Whitson, the district’s point man on impact fees, said it had gotten money from developers to “reserve” 2,466 student seats in future classrooms, based on developments in the pipeline.
But that number reflects an assumption that has not held true so far. A formula estimates that each new housing unit will generate 0.43 school age students. But the formula does not–cannot–say how many of those students will go to private school, will be homeschooled, will go out of the county, or will attend charter schools.
“This generation rate will probably hold for a year or two,” Whitson said. Like enrollment, it is almost unchanged from 2021. Which means that school-age students have continued to come in. They just have not gone to public schools.
Hunter’s Ridge, the big development at the south end of the county, straddling the line with Ormond Beach, has been growing substantially. But many families choose to send their students to Volusia County. The bus drives to Flagler schools are too long, having to cover a 20-mile distance, when the distance to Volusia schools is a fraction of that.
There was once devoted acreage for a school in Hunter’s Ridge. “That’s gone,” County Commissioner Dave Sullivan said. Only 17 students from Hunter’s Ridge are attending Flagler’s public schools, Dave Freeman said, and only four of those students were taking the bus. “We are looking at an alternative to that next year by using some vans instead of buses to get them a little bit quicker,” Freeman said. Flagler schools are working on an agreement with Volusia County to delineate the line from where, in Hunter’s Ridge, students can normally attend school in Volusia.
Nevertheless, the district’s projection is for either a new middle school or a high school, or both, to open in the 2029-30 school year, according to Dave Freeman, the district’s operations manager, though Whitson later modulated that: “Our new schools, should they come about, are going to be in that 29 to 30, 31 timeframe,” Whitson said.
“Unincorporated county is not generating maybe as much or as many students as other jurisdictions because we’re trending towards more of the larger homes, higher value, particularly in the Hammock area,” Adam Mengel, the county’s growth management director, said. “Those are typically going to be second homes or now retirement homes for those folks moving in, they’re going to have grandchildren versus children in the schools.” The Hammock is also big on vacation rentals.
The county issued 146 single-family home building permits in the nine months from July 2023 to the end of March 2024. In the 12 months ending in December 2023, the county had issued 434 certificates of occupancy–meaning that the houses were ready for residents to move into. Most of those homes are in Hunter’s Ridge.
“We continue to grow like everybody else has been in Flagler County,” Ray Tyner, the chief development officer in Palm Coast, said. In 2023, the city issued 1,339 building permits for single-family homes, and permits for a total of 2,131 units when apartments and duplexes are included. The first three months of 2024 point to a slight decline, but the annualized total would still be 1,916 total units permitted.
So far this year, the city has approved development orders for 742 units in four subdivisions or multi-unit project.
“So all the hysteria that we read about in the paper, Palm Coast is building 9,000 units here, 3,000 units there, that’s all going to take a lot of time,” Flagler Beach Commissioner Jane Mealy said. Tyner agreed, making the comparison with the time when ITT platted 47,000 lots in Palm Coast in the late 1960s, with 20 percent of those still unbuilt. But Mealy had a point: “My question really is, at what point does the school board need to say hey, X number of kids is coming because of that.”
That’s the point of the ILA group and its reports, Tyner said.
“I think people are freaking out because they’re seeing the buildings going up,” Conklin said. “It’s not even so much looking at the permits. They’re seeing massive building projects taking place and popping up.”
They’re just not seeing them go to Flagler schools.
Robin says
A useful addendum to this article would’ve been the enrollment numbers at private and charter schools within the the Flagler ISD and how they have changed over the past 20 years.
JimboXYZ says
The upside is we don’t have to build more multi-million dollar schools, instead that cost is diverted to 4 lane projects for roads & gridlock issues with inadequate traffic control. Water & sewage plants expansion that is grossly underfunded. Unaffordable Housing continues to plague the economy, as does unaffordable groceries. It’s a Biden (Alfin) America (Palm Coast) story unfolding into the misery of a day to day existence. A persecution of Trump while a drug addict cheats America out of his $ 1.4 million in taxes. Those impact fees need to go up to maintain the next round of repaving & any other infrastructure projects that cost more than new schools would cost. What was the number ? $ 52 million to repave the residential roads ? How many FCSO Sheriffs facilities could they build with those, 2.5 of them ? they could build more Pickleball facilities. Imagine that, a Tennis Center expansion that one of the reasons the WTA isn’t creating a Tennis tournament in Palm Coast is because they don’t have a dedicated Women’s locker room & showering facility ? Evidently higher prices haven’t slowed the approval of more growth for new construction, but unaffordable housing continues to be a theme in Biden’s America.
Steve says
“Persecution of Trump” Where there’s smoke there’s fire Jimbo. Guilty of 34 Felonies are alot of self inflicted Crimes. It’s only four more years it goes quickly.
Biden 2024
Jim says
Steve, you’re being unfair to ol’ JimboXYZ! He’s 100% right to compare the prosecution of an ex-president for felony crimes to the son of the current president’s legal woes. That’s an apples to apples comparison if I’ve ever seen it! And you must see that bringing in Biden on a discussion of the number of students in Flagler County schools is absolutely on point. It’s Biden’s fault, right JimboXYZ??!!!
And Alfin and Biden are almost indistinguishable (except Alfin is a Republican and Biden is a Democrat) so, again, he’s right on point! Ol’ JimboXYZ brings the heat!!!
Give ol’ JimboXYZ a break. If anyone in this county has their finger on the pulse of the community, it’s ol’ JimboXYZ!!
JC says
And what the hell all of this mean for student enrollment?
The dude says
There’s no families moving here. Just retireds.
No middle class families. Nothing here to support them. It’s hard to support families and kids by cutting grass, baking pizzas, or managing self storage units.
Mary Fusco says
Dude, PC is a bedroom community. Businesses do not relocate to these communities to pay top wages. They are looking to pay the lowest wage possible. In 1974 my husband and I bought our first home. We would have loved to be able to afford something closer to his job but wound up 65 miles away in a bedroom community. (yes, things were tough back then also). He commuted 90 minutes each way so that our children could have a great school system. Most of the families were middle class and commuted to work. It is what it is.
JC says
Wrong.
House being built next to me in the F-Section is a family from MI moving in with kids. Few houses in my block already have families in with children.
Those who have jobs do travel out of Flagler for work or they are fully remote. I work remote but my office is in Jacksonville, and I know a few coworkers with families who moved to Palm Coast since better cost for housing. Middle Class do exist but the majority of them make their living outside of the county, and they are perfectly fine with it.
Chip D says
Dude,
You hate everything about Palm Coast and Flagler County, I imagine that was the reason that you moved away. Just curious as to what utopian, blue paradise you are living in now. Maybe you could convince some others to follow you.
The dude says
Palm Coast and Flagler County are beautiful… it’s the people and the politics that make it a shithole.
Now why on earth would I possibly want any of those people to move where we moved?
Don miller says
Private schools and virtual having biggest years ever. What does that tell you about perception of public schools? They did it to themselves. Denying that they voted with their feet ?
Laurel says
Don Miller: Not really. DeSantis made Florida a great place to move to if you want $8,000.00 dollars a head to keep your kids home or go to private, Christian schools. Quite a draw! Meanwhile, the public schools get less and less help from our own government the taxpayers pay into. Then, we can wait for Trump to eliminate the Department of Education. Dumb and Dumber the kids will be, and much easier to control. After all, who’s monitoring?
I’m not going to go into another rant, again, about how my granddaughter did so well in public schools, because the far right doesn’t want to hear it. In one ear and out the other. However, I’d gamble she could run circles around your home schoolers with her sky high S.A.T.s and current high average in college. BTW, I too went to Florida public schools, and graduated from a community college with a 4.0 average. How’s your kids doing?
vance hoffman says
Since 1979 when the department of education was created school have become worse. (Google statistics) name a single thing the government has made themselves apart of and it’s gotten better.
Ray W. says
In the early 2000’s, a chemical engineer approached a number of American shale oil producers seeking funding to support his efforts to develop a fracking compound that would release greater quantities of crude oil from the rock formations that were to be fracked. Every last one turned him down. President George W. Bush’s Department of Energy granted him the research dollars. He soon patented a fracking mixture of chemicals that accomplished his goal. Thus began to Shale Revolution lasting from 2008 to 2016. American crude oil production had dipped to just over 5 million barrels per day at the onset of President Obama’s first administration in January 2009. It rose to 9.8 million barrels per day in 2016.
In the 1950’s, a different engineer predicted that peak U.S. crude oil production would occur in 1970. It happened as predicted when U.S. crude oil production peaked at over 10 million barrels per day in 1970. The prediction held that U.S. production would forever drop because oil reserves would become harder and harder to find and more and more expensive to exploit. Over the next 48 years, crude oil production did steadily drop. The theory held and was reinforced every year. Every presidential administration beginning with Nixon saw crude oil production figures drop. Yes, there were blips, fits and spurts, when production went up for a few months, but the overall numbers followed the geological script. Engineers kept seeing the results. Eventually, they began to say that worldwide crude oil production would also reach its own “peak oil” figure and then it would inevitably decline. Just before the Shale Revolution, it was widely believed in the oil industry that the world had indeed reached peak oil production. Many FlaglerLive readers recall the days late in W’s second administration when futures investors drove the price of crude oil up to over $140 per barrel. Gasoline prices rose to well over $4 per gallon in Flagler County. World crude oil production had peaked and begun to drop, according to widely held belief. Oil consumption had outstripped supply. No one thought oil production could rise. Then came the Shale Revolution. A whole new perspective was forced on the oil industry.
The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.2 million barrels of crude oil production for the entire 2024 year. The figure is more that 2.5 times the 2007 figure of just over 5 million barrels per day that “peak oil” theory predicted. Sometimes, what we know to be true is simply wrong.
While I support efforts to reduce the world’s reliance on extracted hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids), and I believe we should have started investing billions in the renewable energy sector decades ago, I have to concede that we are where we are. We are here out of short-sightedness, out of stupidity, out of a lack of inertia. We need the oil we extract today to meet current demands. We need the natural gas and natural gas liquids we extract today to meet current demands.
In the years dating from 2016, we went from a nation that exported zero liquified natural gas to a nation that exports more LNG than any other country in the world. For better or worse, these relatively huge amounts of LNG bring in billions of dollars into the overall economy. This improves the overall trade deficit figures that America has compiled for decades. In the few short years since Congress repealed a law enacted in the 70’s that forbad the export of U.S. extracted crude oil, American crude oil exports went from zero to the largest figure in the world. Again, the huge amounts of dollars (billions) pumped into our economy from the sale of crude oil to other nations have improved America’s international trade deficit figures.
You asked for one statistical thing the government has made itself a part of. I give you two: The Department of Energy and the Patent Bureau.
As an aside, the 2020 election was statistically the cleanest nationwide event in history. Flagler County’s Supervisor of Elections is worth every penny of her expense.
Yes, according to a 2021 review by the Associated Press, the six “battleground” states saw 473 instances of possible voter fraud.
Arizona saw 198 such instances. The Arizona Republican state legislators conducted their own hand recount. President Biden picked up 306 votes.
Georgia saw 64 possible instances of voter fraud. Georgia officials conducted three separate statewide recounts. President Biden lost a total of some 1000 votes.
Michigan saw 56 possible instances of voter fraud. Michigan’s Republican-majority state senators concluded after examination of votes cast that no widespread systemic instances of voter fraud had occurred.
Nevada saw 98 possible instances of voter fraud. Of 1506 filed claims of deceased voters, 10 were deemed worthy of further investigation. Of 1778 filed claims of double voting, 10 were deemed worthy of further investigation.
Pennsylvania saw 26 possible instances of voter fraud. At the time of publication, the Pennsylvania Republican effort was still in court.
Wisconsin saw 31 possible instances of voter fraud. A statewide hand recount gave 87 more votes to President Biden.
The authors of the AP study concluded that both Republican and Democratic voters had engaged in fraud. From the many hand recounts, Biden picked up 393 votes in two states and lost 1000 or so in one.
As I recall from memory, Florida saw 23 voters arrested for committing voter fraud after the 2020 election. Republican voters accounted for just under 10 prosecutions. Of the Democratic voters charged with voter fraud, many were given registration papers by officials while in prison; they were told that when they left prison they could vote. Most of the prosecutions of these convicted felons were either dropped by prosecutors or dismissed by judges. Fraud, by definition, is a specific intent crime. If the government tells someone they are eligible to vote upon release and they then vote, there is no intent to commit voter fraud.
On August 4, 2022, Newsweek’s Fact Check team published an article about national voter fraud prosecutions; it concluded: The “vast majority of recorded voter fraud charges were among Donald Trump supporters.”
Here, then, is a third instance of statistics supporting the argument that government efforts have provided a better outcome. Our decentralized network of elections supervisors ably and competently conducted a national election that saw a miniscule number of instances of suspected voter fraud. Government worked. There never was any competent and reliable evidence of a “stolen” presidential election.
Since it only takes one instance to disprove your claim, please disabuse yourself of your fake belief. You are wrong. Write what you wrote again and again, and you will still be wrong. There is no way for you to be right when you post your comment in an all-or-nothing format. One instance is enough to disprove your assertion.
Me? I am partial to the belief that our founding fathers who comprised the several state Ratification Commissions that voted to ratify our experimental liberal democratic Constitutional republic did a good thing. If so, can it be argued that government got involved in the running of a fledgling nation and it grew to become the greatest democracy the world has ever seen and a model of other nations to emulate? It isn’t perfect. We made and continue to make mistakes, sometimes huge ones, but in a good/better/best, bad/worse/worst reasoning process, can it be argued that it has been a good 235 years, on average? That government can indeed get involved in something and make it better?
If I am right, then you will never ever win your argument. Every time you think your argument, every time you voice your argument, every time you write your argument, you will be wrong.
We all have the right to wander through life fooling ourselves.
As an aside, do you want me to write about the government unveiling design parameters for a new fighter plane. A specifications (spec) fighter plane took to the skies 91 days later. Many consider the P-51 the greatest piston-engine fighter the world ever saw. It would never have been built had the government not decided the military needed it. That, too, shoots down your claim. Yes, after the occupation of Iraq, it took seven years to design and build the V-hulled infantry fighting vehicle that was introduced to soldiers and Marines far too late. While they waited, they scoured the scrapyards of Iraq looking for steel plate to weld onto their infantry fighting vehicles.
Homeschool Mom of Flagler says
All the schools in America need to upgrade how they educate and spending money to build schools isn’t the answer. Homeschooling is trending! This is proving to not be a fad. The facts in this well written article do not lie! Microschools are popping up everywhere and if PS want to survive they need to offer hybrid options. For example, a reading class for homeschooling kids -focused on a drop off program. 2 days a week would be enough. Also, LA, art, science and math options as well.
Let parents choose what classes they want like an ala carte menu. This isnt rocket science, but PS are failing students. There are middle school children reading on a first grade reading level. This is an embarrassing commentary on the system. Then we have the violence in the schools and bomb threats? Why are we still even having conversations about building more public schools. The school system is broken. They have proven unworthy of people’s hard earned money.
These trends will continue till there is no money left to fund the building/classes and the teachers in it. America has made their bed and now we are literally laying in it. We need smaller neighborhood schools to bring back a sense of community. These large schools the community has are not enticing and they are equally difficult to manage.
Im not proposing building smaller schools here in Flagler, but overall this should be a better move if new schools are needed. Possibly a technical center for 13 and up would be a wise investment to recruit kids to trade schools. Chefs, plumbers, A/C, laborers, Landscapers, etc etc etc.
The school board doesn’t deserve their paychecks if they cant do better. Fixation on the same issues every year is redundant and a waste of tax dollars. Lets see you all actually forward think, please!
Laurel says
So, Mom, how many families can stay home to home school their kids? You’re right, it ain’t rocket science.
Sooo OVER our Republican Controlled State says
FAMILIES ARE FAILING THEIR KIDS!
Public Schools are faced with multiple challenges because parents have their heads up their asses, and THEIR CHILDREN are out of control!
Politicians have realized education is the BIGGEST honey pot that has gone untapped. They are hell-bent on privatizing in the name of improvement to grab every last dollar that is becoming available as they turn education into corporate profits. Let’s see. I’ve never attended public school, but I can get 10K to offset my private school tuition. My son is bullied because Johnny’s family is an utter train wreck – I can get 10K for staying home with him. Shit, if I have 4 kids, that’s 40K. The money is unaccounted for. So much for the republicans being the party of transparency and accountability. Freakin joke! Don’t believe me – see if any private school accepting vouchers are required to open their books up to the tax payers or even the state! NOPE!
Education may need a overhaul but how about INVESTING/INCENTIVISING in it, instead of diverting $$$$ for a private industry who has ZERO accountability and transparency with MY tax dollars and YOURS.
WAKE THE F’ UP PEOPLE!
If you are STILL a Republican in this state, you should be ashamed and disgusted with your party! Ronald Regan is rolling over in his grave. THEY will go down in history as the party that dismantled America!
Callmeishmael says
I wonder if our dysfunctional School Board and all the negativity it spawns has anything to do with this conundrum.
Thanks Sally Hunt!
Joe D says
Why would students attend Florida Public Schools, when Governor Ron has siphoned off $7000+ tax dollars for each school age student to any parent who wants to send their child to a private school ( even millionaires qualify), OR who wants to “Home School” their child…imagine a 3 child family getting a sudden $21k+ “free income.” No receipts or program reporting from these parents required!!
All this MIGHT work, if the rules many other states impose on HOMESCHOOLING students were followed…annual standardized testing to PROVE your student is advancing at GRADE level… If they don’t, you can’t continue in a homeschooling program, and you have to enroll in private school or a public school…..FLORIDA has NONE of those verifications of progress….
It just pulls MORE money away from the already strapped public schools (reportedly Governor Ron’s attempt to “break” the teacher’s unions).
Just another stepping stone to the dumbing down of Florida education…
Villein says
Since there is no growth in the school aged population does that mean we don’t need 50 additional deputies every year?
JF says
Flagler County Schools completely suck. My kid went to Wadsworth and I took him out after I found out one of the teachers had several arrests and still kept his job. Then transferred to Rymfire elementary school where I found really fast that the good ole boy system is even in the schools. Shame on your redneck administration . I am telling you right now that if you are from anywhere up north your kids are in for a rough ride. I’ve seen it. Complained about it. And yet the administration refuses to do anything about it. My kid was being bullied by southern kids and repeatedly told to go back north, you don’t belong here,my mom is friends with the principle, on and on and on. Where does it stop. The administration told me that this is the south and my kid just has to adjust. REALLY!!!?? Shame on you and you know who you are. I asked to record my conversation with the admin at Rymfire elementary and I was told that I couldn’t. What are they hiding??? It’s ridiculous. I am telling you first hand that Flagler county schools are CRAP!!!
The dude says
Yep.
80% of the reason why we decided to move away… those horrible horrible schools. Horrible schools that will not get better anytime soon given the voting proclivities of flagler county.
Don miller says
So mealy says don’t panic it will take awhile to really overwhelm the system. That’s the problem . Put elected people have vision and no planning because if that. Instead of saying we time to pla if better she prefers time to sit and watch it happen to us.
Atwp says
Please don’t forget tax dollars going to private schools.
Greg says
Impact fees should raise to about $15000. One other close location raised their fees real high, to try to prevent future growth. The city is always crying for money, then raise the impact fee to support more of your needs. But I’m sure yiu DONT want to control growth.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
You know what would fix this? Lining up more black kids in bunnell and yelling at them over baggy pants. That’s sure to fix the issue. Maybe include a few more openly racist white moms on the school board will help things out too
JHM says
I just moved here, early 60s, no kids. My neighbor across the street recently moved here, no kids. Pretty much the story up and down my street. Very few school age children. Most people ate retired, middle aged with grown kids, or a family with one or two school age children. That’s just the prevailing demographic here. Even if they’re younger folks, kids are very expensive. That’s the way it is nationwide, it’s just more pronounced in a retirement destination like NE Florida that’s still somewhat affordable. Shift those unneeded but still collected impact fees to improving infrastructure in this city.
former palm coaster says
I liked palm coast, had to move for a job as there wasnt very many opportunities around. Home insurance tripled, company closed, and prices increased everywhere. So options were move to orlando or jax or move somewhere else entirely.
Joey says
Due to the high volume of crime here traffic over building overpopulation a lot of families do not want to raise their kids in that type of environment. I know a lot of them that left headed west or north palm coast has become nothing but an Orlando Miami Jacksonville.
dave says
I guess the big question of these 16,000 in 3 years how many of these included school kids. Just because you have homes and appts being built doesn’t means its for “families with school kids’, you have a lot of older non school people moving in.
Deborah Coffey says
So, the decades old Republican plan to demolish public education is working in Florida. Autocrats know they cannot possibly control an educated populace…only a system that employs indoctrination works for autocrats. Remember when Rick Scott tried to cut $2 billion from education when he first took office as governor? DeSantis has pushed the pedal to the metal with mandating fake history, awarding thousands of dollars vouchers for parents to move their kids to private school, killing DEI and threatening tenure in colleges and, more guns for teenagers, etc. So, dear Republicans, you voted for bad schools and you got them. Now, stop whining and do something about it!
dave says
due to school vouchers ( in 2023 parents can apply and use up to $8000 a year towards private schools that accept the voucher), private schools, magnet schools and the growth of charter schools. Its occurring all over this state. Look up Hillsborough, Broward and Duval Cty for ex. And its not just Fla, its all over the US. The share of children ages 5 to 17 enrolled in public schools fell by almost 4 percentage points from 2012 to 2022, an NBC News analysis of Census Bureau data found, even as the overall population grew.