By Gregory F. Treverton
While the Biden administration has maintained its strong support of Israel’s war aim of eliminating Hamas in Gaza, that support has for weeks been tempered by statements from U.S. officials saying Israel needs to minimize deaths of civilians as it continues fighting.
Those mild rebukes appear to have been ignored by the Israelis. Their continued widespread bombing has raised the death toll in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, to 18,600. And the growing tension between Biden and Israel’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, broke into the open on Dec. 12. Biden warned Israel that it is “losing support” over the war. Netanyahu publicly disagreed with the U.S. goal of having the Palestinian Authority run Gaza.
The Conversation’s senior politics and democracy editor Naomi Schalit interviewed Gregory F. Treverton of USC Dornsife, a former chairman of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, about the divisions between Israel and the U.S. In the end, Israel’s behavior, says Treverton, shows “the limits of influence” the U.S. holds.
Anadolu via Getty Images
The U.S. has criticized Israel’s conduct of the war. Israel has ignored that criticism. That looks like humiliation for the Biden administration. What is going on?
This is a pattern we’ve seen before. We saw it in the war Israel fought against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. The U.S. was trying to push Israel to be more humane in the way they conducted that war. So while the disagreement is not especially new, it is not just humiliating but also shows the limits of influence.
Indeed, throughout the U.S.-Israeli relationship, there has been a lot of the tail wagging the dog. Israel has been good at playing American politics. And so it is hard to put the kind of pressure on Israel that the objective facts would suggest the U.S. should be able to wield. After all, Israel is by far the biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. And the U.S. has stood with Israel firmly for a very long time. So to that extent, it is a bit humiliating that all that apparent influence doesn’t get listened to.
Is Israel, as you say, “very good at this” because they they live in a rough neighborhood, or because of the pressure domestic politics plays on Biden? What gives them the power to do this?
Surely it is partly the rough neighborhood – Israelis certainly see themselves as living in a very rough neighborhood. So the typical pattern is the U.S. says “go easier.” Israel says “give us a few more days.” That was the pattern in 2006 and has been the pattern this time – Israel asks for a little bit more time to accomplish its military objective. But if its ability to ignore U.S. demands stems primarily from living in a rough neighborhood, Israel does have a lot of influence in the United States. Majorities in both parties in Congress support Israel, though there is increasing dissent over that support on college campuses and elsewhere. In a recent Pew poll, four times as many Democrats as Republicans in the U.S. thought Israel was going too far in its military operation.
Biden recently said Israel is “losing support” over the war and its “indiscriminate bombing of Gaza.” Netanyahu said the Palestinian Authority will never run Gaza, despite U.S. support for that idea. What does this more open division tell us?
It tells us that things are getting worse between the two countries for sure. It obviously reflects the frustration on Biden’s part and the administration’s part. It is a marker, I think, of how isolated Israel is now in global public opinion and is obviously taking the U.S. with it. So that’s a big source of frustration for the administration. It really is time for some kind of cease-fire again, and maybe another release of some hostages. But that doesn’t seem in the cards soon.
What are Biden’s options at this point? It sounds like you’re saying Biden doesn’t have much that he can do. And, in fact, it looks like within Israel, Netanyahu – whose government may fall once the war slows or ends – is using Biden’s disapproval to shore up his political standing with his right-wing supporters.
Certainly, Netanyahu’s playing to the right makes the problem even harder for the Biden administration. Netanyahu’s problem is more his right flank than Washington. And so that makes it difficult for the U.S. to exert the kind of influence it should. And we still don’t have an understanding of what the Israeli sense of the endgame is. On the current track, they wind up, it seems, occupying Gaza. They surely don’t want to do that. My guess is behind the scenes the Israelis are thinking about some option involving the Palestinian Authority, even though Israel says it wants no part of that.
Biden went to a fundraiser the other day and told attendees that Netanyahu was the leader of “the most conservative government in Israel’s history” that “doesn’t want a two-state solution” to the Palestinian conflict. “I think he has to change, and with this government, this government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move,” Biden said. When a president makes such a statement in a fundraiser, it’s not going to remain secret. What an extraordinary thing for a head of state to say about another government.
It amounts in some sense to calling for regime change in Israel. We all assume that once the war is over, Netanyahu will be gone. But obviously if he has any thoughts of staying on, he does need to think about a different coalition. World opinion is going to force him to think seriously about the Palestinians, if not about a two-state solution. Whatever else has happened, Hamas certainly succeeded in its objective of getting the Palestinians’ desire for statehood back on the global agenda. And Netanyahu is going to have to deal with that at some point.
Said Khatib/AFP via Getty Images)
What are the elements that Biden has to consider as he manages this situation going into the future?
He starts with generally strong American support for Israel that cuts across both parties. But the thing he needs to cope with is the increasing concern among progressives, especially young people in the Democratic Party, that there’s way too much suffering by the Palestinians, that something has to be done. And now it seems to me there’s almost a global consensus that this war needs to end. That’s the challenge that the administration faces: to try and heed that global consensus while letting Israel do the things it feels it needs to do in Gaza.
And that’s really an impossible circle for Biden to square. President Lyndon Johnson used to say that sometimes being president was like being a mule in a hailstorm. “There’s nothing to do but to stand there and take it,” he said.
Gregory F. Treverton is Professor of Practice in International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Ric Flair says
In all wars children are the unfortunate victims. Tens of thousands of German children were killed in World War Two. In both cases they were victims of the deeds of their own governments. Sometimes in order to root out evil, innocents are collateral damage. You can be outraged and you don’t have to like it, but its simply reality.
Marc Crane says
Israel s coalition govt, quite united on the issue of protecting itself, has every right and should remove Hamas. The Palestinians should put on their big boy pants, renounce the Hamas overlords and learn to govern in a peaceful way. If they learn to move away from their barbaric behavior they have large support from civilized nations to manage their place in the world.
Hippy says
I agree that the Palestinians need to step up but so does the rest of the world and renounce Hamas and religious extremists. But it will never happen. The Religious extremists use the Palestinians as fodder to support the extremist agenda. And the rest of the world sits on their hands and or buys into the propaganda that the extremists put out. You can see it in the fact that people are demonstrating to support the Palestinians but not to denounce Hamas and their actions. You see it in the press coverage. But how long has it been that we have had or seen real news and not just opinions…..
Dennis C Rathsam says
The IDF has taken its time, and energy to make sure the people of Palistine are not killed. Millions of leaf lets were dropped tell them to leave. Many listened,& left. The ones that didnt are Hamas controled. The Palistine people elected Hamas. They have only themselves to blame. Hiding under hospitals, shows how evil these people are. The IDF is doing a good job wiping out these terrorists, while saving inocent lives. Yesterday they started pumping in sea water in to the Hamas tunnel system, flushing out the terrorists like rats. The IDF will destroy Hamas, & not stop until the job is done. This fight has gone on for centuries, too many were killed troughout the years. Now is the time to stop them once & for all. Gaza will be rebuilt, the Palistine people will live in peace, without the scum that started this. With the tunnels gone, Hamas dead, peace will prevail.
Foresee says
You forgot to mention the 18,500 civilians, mostly innocent women and children, who have been killed by the Israeli military. You can’t even spell Palestine right (it’s not “Palistine”), just goes to show how misinformed you are.
Bill Boots says
Spot on Dennis, perfect!
Bill C says
As stated in the article: “Israel has been good at playing American politics.” Anyone who protests against Israel’s inhumane war against the Palestinians is smeared with the usual gambit of “anti-Semitic”. Now we know that Israel knew of the specific plans of the Hamas attack plans a year in advance, then it took the Israeli military 8 hours to respond to the attack. How could that be? Seems very suspicious.
dan says
Last i heard Israel is not a state but an independant country, so for the US to try to dictate what they are doing kinda goes against what this country was founded on, freedom to run your affairs with intervention from others. Let them finish what they have started by getting rid of Hamas once and for all time. If it was your family that was raped and butchered you would be speaking out of the other side of your mouth. Better be hoping old Joe wakes up to the fact that we may have several thousand of the bad boys in our country that have crossed the border with welcome to la la land signs.
Kennan says
This is really bloody simple. Do you want peace in the Middle East? Stop supporting Israel and its apartheid government. Biden and his administration are fully breaking, an already destabilized region, by supporting Netanyahu, and letting him do whatever he wants to Palestinian civilians.
By doing this, you are assuredly, making it a certainty that you will have more terrorist groups
The U.S. gives Israel $4 billion a year, just for being Israel, an additional 14 billion was given to enhance the ground attack in Gaza. Really?
What is truly disgusting is the way America is handling this whole thing. We already know Hamas is a terrorist organization, and condemn what they’ve done. What we don’t do, is handle the situation, the way we should’ve from the very beginning and bring in special forces, ours and Israel’s, and get Hamas that way. We both have two of the most advanced militaries man for man in the world, especially Israel.
Netanyahu does not want to state solution. He has said it in no uncertain terms publicly. He sees is the opportunity to kill thousands and thousands of civilians. Biden sits on his hands and watches this happen in real time, when he asks for a cease-fire, he is laughed at, and Netanyahu continues to do what he’s doing now. All any leader hast to do that is giving a country $4 billion a year can simply say enough. If you don’t stop this indiscriminate killing, we will stop funding the Israeli machine. That simple. Sometimes the simplest answer is the most obvious one. Middle eastern countries at this point would be more trusting of the United States. The United States puts Israel above the rest of the world , and that’s a fact. When you do this, you create wide distrust all over the region, because you are no longer human. You are certainly not treating the situation like a human being would.
If we would simply do logical things, our chances of peace in the Middle East would be far greater than they are today. Are we that stupid? Are we that corrupt apparently we are.