By Olena Borodyna
Hours before meeting Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Donald Trump said he wanted to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and was “not going to be happy” if it wasn’t agreed today. The US president appears to have left Alaska with no such agreement in place.
“We didn’t get there”, Trump told reporters, before later vaguely asserting that he and Putin had “made great progress”. Trump is likely to return to the idea of engaging Putin in the coming weeks and months, with the Russian leader jokingly suggesting their next meeting could be held in Moscow.
A land-for-ceasefire arrangement, an idea Trump has repeatedly raised as an almost inevitable part of a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine, could still reemerge as a possible outcome. In fact, in an interview with Fox News after the summit where Trump was asked how the war in Ukraine might end and if there will be a land swap, Trump said: “those are points that we largely agreed on”.
Securing territorial concessions from Ukraine has long been one of Moscow’s preconditions for any negotiations on a peace deal. Putin is likely betting that insisting on these concessions, while keeping Ukraine under sustained military pressure, plays to his advantage.
Public fatigue over the war is growing in Ukraine, and Putin will be hoping that a weary population may eventually see such a deal as acceptable and even attractive. Russia launched a barrage of fresh attacks against Ukrainian cities overnight, involving more than 300 drones and 30 missiles.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who was excluded from the Alaska summit, has maintained that Kyiv will not agree to territorial concessions. Such a move would be illegal under Ukraine’s constitution, which requires a nationwide referendum to approve changes to the country’s territorial borders.
The assumption behind a land-for-ceasefire deal is that it would enhance Ukrainian and European security. Trump sees it as the first step in bringing Putin to the negotiation table for a broader peace deal, as well as unlocking opportunities for reconstruction. In reality, such a deal would do little to diminish the longer-term Russian threat.
Moscow’s efforts to shore up and modernise its defence capabilities and neo-imperial ambitions would remain intact. Its hybrid attacks on Europe would also continue, and Ukraine’s capacity to secure meaningful reconstruction would be weakened.
Institute for the Study of War
Whether or not Russia ever opts for a direct military strike on a European Nato member state, it has no need to do so to weaken the continent. Its hybrid operations, which extend well beyond the battlefield, are more than sufficient to erode European resilience over time.
Russia’s disinformation campaigns and sabotage of infrastructure, including railways in Poland and Germany and undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland and Baltic Sea, are well documented. Its strategic objectives have focused on deterring action on Ukraine and sowing disagreement between its allies, as well as attempting to undermine democratic values in the west.
Europe is under pressure on multiple fronts: meeting new defence spending targets of 5% of GDP while economic growth is slowing, reducing the dependence of its supply chains on China and managing demographic challenges.
These vulnerabilities make it susceptible to disinformation and have deepened divisions along political and socioeconomic fault lines – all of which Moscow has repeatedly exploited. A land-for-ceasefire deal would not address these threats.
For Ukraine, the danger of such a deal is clear. Russia might pause large-scale physical warfare in Ukraine under a deal, but it would almost certainly continue destabilising the country from within.
Having never been punished for violating past agreements to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, such as when it annexed Crimea in 2014, Moscow would have little incentive to honour new ones. The government in Kyiv, and Ukrainian society more broadly, would see any accompanying security guarantees as fragile at best and temporary at worst.
The result would probably be a deepening of Ukraine’s vulnerabilities. Some Ukrainians might support doubling down on militarisation and investment in defence technologies. Others, losing faith in national security and reconstruction, could disengage or leave the country. Either way, in the absence of national unity, reconstruction would become far more difficult.
Making reconstruction harder
Ukraine’s reconstruction will be costly, to the tune of US$524 billion (£387 billion) according to the World Bank. It will also require managing a web of interconnected security, financial, social and political risks.
These include displacement and economic challenges brought on by the war, as well as the need to secure capital flows across different regions. It will also need to continue addressing governance and corruption challenges.
A permanent territorial concession would make addressing these risks even more difficult. Such a deal is likely to split public opinion in Ukraine, with those heavily involved in the war effort asking: “What exactly have we been fighting for?”
Recriminations would almost certainly follow during the next presidential and parliamentary elections, deepening divisions and undermining Ukraine’s ability to pursue the systemic approach needed for reconstruction.
Ongoing security concerns in border regions, particularly near Russia, would be likely to prompt further population flight. And how many of the over 5 million Ukrainians currently living abroad would return to help reconstruct the country under these conditions is far from certain.
Financing reconstruction would also be more challenging. Public funds from donors and international institutions have helped sustain emergency energy and transport infrastructure repairs in the short term and will continue to play a role. But private investment will be critical moving forward.
Investors will be looking not only at Ukraine’s geopolitical risk profile, but also its political stability and social cohesion. Few investors would be willing to commit capital in a country that cannot guarantee a stable security and political environment. Taken together, these factors would make large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine nearly impossible.
Beyond fundamental issues of accountability and just peace, a land-for-ceasefire deal would be simply a bad bargain. It will almost certainly sow deeper, more intractable problems for Ukraine, Europe and the west.
It would undermine security, stall reconstruction and hand Moscow both time and a strategic advantage to come back stronger against a Ukraine that may be ill-prepared to respond. Trump would do well to avoid committing Ukraine to such an arrangement in further talks with Putin over the coming months.
Olena Borodyna is Senior Geopolitical Risks Advisor at ODI Global.
Atwp says
Why have a summit and Ukraine wasn’t there. Don’t understand.
Voter says
The one that brags about the Art of the Deal failed again.
Tired of it says
Didn’t he say he would end the war in Ukraine on Day One? He got played again. His kissing up to Putin got him nothing, And the killing in Gaza continues but hey we are getting a 200 million new ballroom….
Jim says
A rational person might conclude that Donald Trump has not understood the situation in Ukraine since, well, forever. “I will end that conflict on Day 1!” said the Donald. Well, here we are, seven months into his term and… nothing…. Still, I see no signs that MAGA recognizes the amount of BS this guy spews forth constantly.
Donald and his sycophants badgered Zelenskyy in the oval office saying he had “nothing”, “no cards to play” and clearly indicated that they all were siding with Putin.
But Putin hasn’t played ball with the Donald and continues to send “troops” into Ukraine that are dying as fast as they get there. It’s estimated that over 1 million Russians have died in this war.
Donald meets with Putin in Alaska with absolutely nothing agreed to and apparently no plan of action. This after three years of war and 7 months in office. Still no plan.
So Putin goes home having gotten face time with the US president on USA soil and is treated like royalty. He got a better reception than those leaders of countries that we’ve historically considered allies. (Stay tuned, our allies are moving away from us as prudently and quickly as they reasonably can.) And, with no agreement, the Donald TACO’s again on his “threat” to critically sanction Russia and those that do business with Russia – although that’s exactly what he said he’d do if Putin wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire.
So where does the war stand now? Well, Russia continues to target civilian areas with rockets and drones. Russian continues to send their forces against the Ukrainians in suicidal attacks which are slower wearing the Ukrainians down. The USA has withheld military aid to Ukraine. Why? No explanation from this government. And Putin has his little buddy in the White House right where he wants him.
I’m hoping the EU will step up and support Ukraine fully. I hope that if Trump says Ukraine must give up land for some kind of “peace deal” (translate – time for Russia to rearm and come back again; they’ve NEVER honored any deal they’ve made), the EU will say no, that they’ll support Ukraine completely. I’m hoping that the EU still has the spine to do what it takes to support democracy in this world. It is quite clear that this administration doesn’t even support democracy here at home. And, as we all know, it’s AMERICA FIRST even though it really appears that this wonderful plan is only going to led to the fall of the USA as a world power and definitely as the “leader of the free world”. Who wants to follow a leader who isn’t willing to step up when needed?
I wish Ukraine the best. I think Zelenskyy is a true war-time leader who puts every one of our so-called “leaders” to complete shame. I contribute to some of the groups that supply vehicles and other gear to the troops. I encourage those of you who can afford to (considering where our economy is going) to do so as well. The Ukrainians understand the difference between living in a flawed democracy vs. the dictatorship Russia offers. At one time, we Americans did as well and we’d have done anything we could to help them defend their country. So please help them if you can. Our government may be missing in action but we can still help make a difference.
Poho says
@A better photo caption:
Fat Judas and its interpreter holds intimate conversation with Satan.
Know more about this
https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+satan+weapon
Ibid
https://www.google.com/search?q=who+are+the+allies+of+russia+today
And who is aligned with those allies? The answer is not a secret: when Russia was crumbling before US and European unity — its (Putin) allies, including the allies’ subordinates, opened new fronts of conflict to save Putin’s rotten ass — the same ass that is kissed and caressed by Trump, et al. — MAGA comrades.
Lynne says
Can someone please explain to me what authority Trump has to give away another country’s land? And the in-your-face finger gesture from Trump to Putin is certainly not a gracious indication of willingness nor strength – it is the mark of a bully. Well, maybe bully to bully is a wash!
Stephen says
Where is Ukraine? Peace is not possible without them.
Laurel says
Atwp: Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize as a personal trophy. Yet, Trump has made Putin more important than he has been in years, if ever.
We should have supported Ukraine, financially, from the get go. Cleaning it up will be more costly, land lost for Ukraine, and a loser for democracy. There would be nothing to stop Putin from regrouping and attacking again.
Another f**k up.
Robjr says
Once again the handler managed his asset(the Taco).
Mothersworry says
Because it wasn’t a summit meeting. It was a distraction and an embarrassment. More of trumps say one thing, do another.
Ban misinformation says
The orange terror and his hidden files! Didn’t Ukraine give us mineral rights in exchange for something…..
I’d bet Putin went to Epsteins island with the pedo king!
Lost over a million jobs already! Only 62 percent even have jobs so there should be many openings but there just not. Especially the ones that pay enough to survive . Faux news and faux statistics is not a bright bright future lol! Forced recession is not good now matter how you try to spin it or point fingers.
Janet Sullivan says
@atwp. Of course you do.
Skibum says
Make no mistake… the self-centered, phony “peacemaker” has only his own interest and publicity in mind in his latest bid for a Nobel Peace Prize. He is no peace maker, no deal maker, and certainly no diplomat. The failed meeting with the murderous Putin in Alaska did no good for Ukraine, no good for America or our allies. It only bolstered Putin’s stature in Russia by giving him plenty of media coverage being escorted into U.S. airspace by our own military fighter jets, getting the red carpet treatment, even a ride in “the beast”, can you imagine that?!
Drumph was putting on an “Apprentice” like show for sure, only in the end Putin might as well have looked down on the felon president as he was walking out of their meeting to deride drumph and say “You’re FIRED!” because Putin well knows he is a chess master while drumph sits on the floor playing with his marbles.
Cue the drumph voice: “Nobody in the history of this country deserves the Nobel Peace Prize more than Donald J. Trump! I have made more peace deals than any other president, by far! Of course, my biggest peace deal was with Melania. Otherwise, who knows, maybe I would have started dating Ivanka. You know, nobody has better legs than Ivanka.”
So far, drumph has cajoled numerous people to nominate him for the Nobel prize. He has persuaded, possibly even threatened other heads of state, where they have made ridiculous and false assertions of drumph somehow being involved in their own negotiations with countries they have had disputes with. He has put the word out in our own Congress, where some maga GOP members have publicly stated their support to nominate him for some vague or misleading reasons. I wouldn’t put it past him to contact the real author of his stupid book “The Art of the Deal” to put his name in for a Nobel prize simply because of having his name associated with that book that another person authored.
Well, let’s see how Ukranian president Zelinsky is treated this time around when he arrives in Washington D.C. We all remember how terribly drumph and his idiot V.P. treated him last time, even raising their voices and yelling at him while the world’s tv cameras rolled! Drumph made a complete mockery of such an important visit to the WH by the president of a country that was fighting off Russian invaders who are trying to rebuild the communist Soviet empire to it’s former size, threatening the rest of Europe. Will drumph greet Zelinsky with the same pomp and circumstance as he gloriously awarded Putin???
We need to continue to stand with Ukraine and the rest of the NATO countries who have shown much more understanding, much more support and given much more money and resources to help fight off Russian aggression than we have here in the U.S.
DaleL says
Just a reminder, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation. Ukraine inherited the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The arsenal included nuclear weapons designed to strike the United States. To secure the weapons and demilitarize Ukraine, the United State, Great Britain, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 to guarantee the security and borders of Ukraine. The nuclear weapons were turned over to Russia as part of the agreement.
Vladimir Putin grossly violated the agreement in 2014. He went even further with Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The very idea that the Russian dictator would honor any agreement, unless it suits him, is farcical.
The U.S. and Europe need to provide Ukraine with every weapon it needs to defeat the Russian tyrant. All trade with Russia should end. All Russian assets should be seized and given to Ukraine.
Laurel says
So, will Trump threaten Norway with high tariffs if he isn’t considered for the Nobel Peace Prize? What do you think?
Joe D says
In reply to Atwp…
Yes…you DO UNDERSTAND…why would they exclude Ukraine?
Because the so called “SUMMIT” was merely a PHOTO OP! Trump wants that NOBEL PEACE PRIZE, so bad, he can TASTE IT! No matter that there is no way Ukraine is going to agree with what Russia wants (except if you watch and listen to Trump, Trump said the US wasn’t going to give Ukraine any more weapons…so with THAT THREAT over Zelenskyy’s head…he could be bullied into agreeing to anything)! Putin just wants the world to see what a great and REASONABLE GUY he is! He’s just stalling for time, so he can gain control over more Ukrainian territory, before Trump agrees to “freeze” the current wartime borders ( with Russia keeping the 20% of Ukraine it currently controls).
Just watch out Latvia. Poland, Slovakia, and the Chech Republic ..you’re NEXT….Putin has plenty of time…he recently changed the laws allowing him another 10 year presidential term. Let’s HOPE he didn’t give Trump any ideas on THAT!
Ed P says
If the commenters above had simply spent more time edifying themselves about the conflict and the purpose Alaskan meeting, most of the misinformation posted would not have been. You are vomiting sound bites. How is possible that a 6 hour meeting was ever going to find a resolution. Idiots.
There wasn’t a scintilla of objectivity in the analyses.Try setting aside your abhorrent feelings and glaring hatred for Trump.
First, there isn’t another world leader who could get Putin to the table. Not Macron or Starmer. The United States with its economic strengths and military is the key.
Second, if Trump fails, the war grinds on for another year or more with more death and destruction.
Third, by design the meeting excluded Zelenskyy to set the parameters of negotiations. A resolution was never expected. Trump stated that he has zero authority to negotiate a land swap for peace. Zelenskyy and European leaders are traveling to Washington August 18 to discuss Putins demands. Next a 3 way sit down would be next step.
Every negotiation needs a mediator and any successful peace agreement will require both Putin and Zelenskyy to make some concessions. Neither one of them will be 100% happy. That would be called a surrender not a peace settlement.
Fourth, if this peace deal fails and secondary economic sanctions and additional military support is provided to Ukraine, we can expect an escalation with tens of thousands more casualties and deaths.
Finally, if Trump is successful, who gives a rats ass of his motives? Honestly, who cares as long as it happens.
I believe most of the naysayer never endured the sights, sounds, and smell of war.
Yes, you can close your eyes and cover your ears, but you have to breathe. The smell is inescapable.
BillC says
Hey MAGA… do you get it now?! Trump is not a leader, just a salesman making overblown claims he can’t deliver on.
Jackson says
Trump keeps portraying Russia as some kind of mighty empire. Its GDP is smaller than Italy’s. Its economy is on the brink of failure, and Trump is now giving Vlad all the time and space to continue his war of aggression in Ukraine.
Standing in the Middle of Palm Coast Parkway says
If you thought that the President could end the war in Ukraine on the first day or within the first week of his administration, shame on you for falling for that advertising and electioneering.
If you think bringing Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to Alaska for a meeting with Russian President Putin would accomplish anything at this point in the conflict, you were mistaken.
Everyone will have their own take on the Alaska Peace Summit. Here is my take. President Trump brought President Putin to the United States. They didn’t meet in a neutral country. They met on American ground. American ground that was once (from the late 1700s until 1867) a Russian colony.
They met without leaders from other countries involved or invited. No distractions. This setting allowed the American President the opportunity to express his own and his administration’s opinions about the state of the world and the actions of the Russian nation-state.
You can call him a bully, but I wager that President Trump shared his assessment of the state of the Russian Republic with Putin. They have lots and lots of problems. Their young people (mostly men) in the military are being killed in great numbers in a senseless border war. Russian influence throughout Europe and most of the rest of the world is that they can’t be trusted. Their control over Cuba and “nation-states” (war zones) in Africa and South America is virtually gone (largely ceded to China). Russia is an arms supplier to nation-states in the Middle East and Africa. Arms that they may need for that senseless border war. A war where Ukrainian innovation is outpacing Russian defensive capabilities. If no other nation-state trusts you, how do you expect to do business? What else does Russia have to offer? That would be oil.
I believe President Trump and his Administration made it clear to President Putin and the Russian delegation that if any of our US trading partners buy Russian oil, that trading partner (say India) will pay a price in all other trade with the US (i.e., tariffs). I believe President Trump will present this to European leaders and Middle East oil producers over the next few weeks. The Europeans want to ‘de-fang’ Russia but still trade. The Middle East oil producers want to take back control over that commodity oil market.
And what could Putin share with Trump? That Trump just won an election? Putin ‘won’ elections too. His administration is enforcing border security? It may be very unpopular, but Russia does that too. That many people in his nation’s opposition party don’t like him? In Russia, those people who oppose Putin mysteriously develop health issues or vanish.
TL;DR Not everyone has to like Trump, but give the United States’ efforts at international diplomacy a chance.
CC says
Once again Trump caved to Putin and Ukraine and the brave men and women fighting for their democracy are the ones who suffer. I am ashamed that this coward we have as president has once again showed us his true colors….Putin’s Puppet
TACO STRIKES AGAIN
Michael Cocchiola says
No wonder there’s no deal. Trump & Putin never got past the ass- kissing stage of “negotiations”.
Here’s where things stalled…
Trump demanded the Nobel Peace Prize. Putin demanded Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Belarus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Texas and Alaska.
Trump was willing to cut the deal, but Putin couldn’t bring himself to sully his international reputation by supporting Trump for the prize.
Seems Putin drew a bloody red line in the sand – Nyet Nobel!
Skibum says
Ed P, you are delusional if you think for one second the idiot in the WH can negotiate ANYTHING! The only piece deal the orange faced moron is possibly capable of is a piece of ass from some big boobed ex-porn star after he pays bigly bucks to persuade and cajole her to unrobe for him… she would sure have to avert her eyes from the horror before her!
You are aware, aren’t you, that everything drumph has sought to manage or influence in his long, dreadful life ends up failing, going through bankruptcy, endless lawsuits and verdicts against the dispicable POS? Now, you seem to fantasize that he has suddenly acquired some brain cells, some common sense, some sense of humanity and concern for others? No thought at all about that glorious, just out of reach Nobel Peace Prize he continues to have nightmares about it STILL slipping through the grasp of his tiny fingers??? Hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the chuckle this morning, Ed. I really needed that to start my day off right.
Ray W. says
In a Sunday editorial column titled “What Kind of Peace in Ukraine”, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote:
“Whether it’s the start of a road to peace, or to appeasement, is impossible to know. … We’re not sure if Mr. Trump knows himself.”
I have long taken the position that the only road to peace for the Ukraine is to never cede a square meter of its territory to Russia. Any cession of land to an invading nation that has already lost the war it started would lead to the ultimate loss of all of the Ukraine.
I base this view on the speech Winston Churchill gave to the American people in May 1943, during which speech he argued that WWII had already been won, but for the killing. He used the example of Gettysburg, which in July 1863 had marked the ultimate defeat of the Confederacy, but for the killing.
This was not the only time that Churchill raised this view.
In 1918, months after the October and November collapse of the Russian army, and shortly after Russia signed an armistice with German
Ed P says
Skibum,
Your Trump Derangement Syndrome may require professional help. Even though it’s not an actual diagnosed condition. It is a representation of political obsession and polarization. Your posts are descending and spiraling into nonsense.
Rehabnet.com can help. It has a 24 hour hotline as well.
Good luck.
Ray W, says
For an undiscerned reason, only portion of my comment in the thread above made it through to FlaglerLive.
Perhaps I can reconstitute the remainder of the comment as it was intended.
… and shortly after Russia signed an armistice with Germany, millions of German troops were transferred from the Eastern Front to the Western Front.
In March 1918, the German Army pushed those millions of its soldiers and more across the entirety of the Western Front, driving the Belgians, the British, and the French back, but after months of fighting and millions of deaths, the Allies held. American soldiers were streaming into Europe, but these fresh forces were not put into action in large numbers until September 1918.
After four years of war, many in England were promoting a need for an “honourable” peace that would stop the killing.
According to the official Churchill family biographer, Martin Gilbert, Winston Churchill published to his constituents a warning against war-weariness and defeatism.
Mr. Gilbert wrote:
“
Ed P says
I based my earlier post to Skibum not just based on his actual colorful outlook, concepts, and words composing his posts but on the actual rewriting of history and denial of reality.
Brokered peace deals by the Trump team…
2020 Abraham Accords
Armenia-Azerbaijan
Rwanda-Democratic Republic of Congo
Israel-Islamic Republic
India-Pakistan
Thailand-Cambodia
His motivation may not be anything other than his inability to tolerate waste. Money, time, or lives.
Ray W, says
For a second time, only a portion of a comment made it to FlaglerLive.
“On August 3 [Churchill] drafted a message to his constituents, explaining his feelings. Lord Lansdowne, he wrote, had advised that ‘we shd now endeavor to make peace with Germany upon honourable terms . . . & that we shd now try to make a territorial bargain with Germany & her allies wh wd spare mankind the suffering & slaughter & economic waste through wh they must otherwise plough their way’. Such a proposition, Churchill declared, was ‘undoubtedly a serious one, but it is not one wh those who take the contrary view need to be afraid of facing.’. His letter went on:
“‘For what is the contrary view? It is in a sentence that this war has got to be won & that it is not won yet. These twin hard facts will be found to dominate every form of argument not arising from despondency or treason. Let us not pretend that we have won yet. Let us not delude ourselves by thinking that there is any substitute for victory. To enter upon a struggle like this, to proclaim that vital & sacred issues are at stake, to cast the flower of the nation’s manhood into the furnace, to wage war by land and sea for four devastating years, & then to discover that the foe is so stiff that after all a reasonable accommodation is expedient, & shd be brought about as quickly as possible is not, however it may be disquised, anything wh resembles ‘an honourable peace’. To set out to redress an intolerable wrong, to grapple with a cruel butcher, & then after a bit to find him so warlike that upon the whole it is better to treat with him as a good hearted fellow & sit down & see if we can’t be friends after all, may conceivably be a form of prudence but that is the very best that can be said of it.
“But is it even prudent? To judge this we must look out upon the vast field of the war & try however inadequately to compute its awful balances. Stated vy broadly, the following is the salient fact of the war situation: — The Appearance of power is with the enemy & the Reality of power is with us. . . .”
Mr. Gilbert wrote further:
“Churchill went on to explain that whereas Germany had won ‘scores of battles’, had occupied Belgium, Serbia, Rumania and Poland, had ‘overthrown Russia’, and had ‘gripped tight in her hands’ the three other enemy states — Bulgaria, Turkey and Austria-Hungary — the reality was that the German people themselves had suffered enormously in achieving these conquests. ‘The strain upon the life energies of the German people,’ he declared, ‘cannot be less than three times what we in the British islands have yet been called upon to endure . . . If we are steadfast, they must collapse.’
“‘For several weeks, over 10,000 American soldiers had been reaching Europe each day. The German assault of March 18 had not produced any decisive result, despite nearly five months of effort and loss. Since the March attack began, the Allies had won aerial control of the western front. ‘All the world is marching against Germany & her confederates,’ Churchill wrote. ‘All the continents, all the oceans, all the men in all the lands are leagued against the guilty nation. We have but to persevere to conquer. That is the reality.’ He continued:
“‘A Peace made now would for all time register & rivet upon the world the appearance of German power taken at its culminating point. It wd forever deny the other nations of the world their heritage in Reality. A peace upon the accomplished facts of German triumph, at the hour when German triumph is tottering would shut out for many years from mankind their native basic right. They have the right and they have the strength. Are they to forego the right, & to disperse the strength before the hollow pomp of German military assertion? Are we to doom our children to accept for all time the Germans at their own valuation, at their highest valuation, at their most extravagant valuation; to stamp these false values forever upon the world & to blot out from the account our immense, and if we give them play, overwhelming resources? To do so would be to defraud & defile the destiny of man. …”
Make of this what you will.
Me?
For the majority of my life I have heard and read that the Soviet and later Russian army was a tiger.
In 1994, the Ukraine entered into a pact with the Russian Federation, Great Britain and the United States. Ukrainian nuclear weapons would be sold to Russia in exchange for the other three nations sworn oath to protect the Ukraine from invasion, no matter the source.
In 2014, the appearance of the Russian tiger persuaded both the United States and Great Britain from honoring its sworn oath to the Ukrainian people, forever staining the Obama presidency. The Russian tiger took a small part of the Ukraine, and Russia annexed all of Crimea. No one lifted a finger to defend the Ukraine, yet its small army fought the Russian’s to a standstill.
For eight years, Russia rebuilt its army and stockpiled billions of rubles into various financial reserves.
In February 2022, the Russian tiger again invaded the Ukraine. This time, western nations, including the United States and Great Britain, lifted a finger, but they didn’t lift the collective middle finger, unlike the Ukrainians on Snake Island who gave the Russians a verbal middle finger. To the West, the Russian army had the appearance of a tiger.
But the small Ukrainian Army fought the Russian tiger to a standstill and then, during a counter-offensive, drove the tiger back. At one time, Russia held as much as 26% of the Ukraine. Pushed back, they came to hold somewhere around 16% of Ukrainian soil. After three more years of battle, Russia still holds less than 20% of Ukraine’s land. Unveiled by the Ukrainians, the Russian tiger never really was a tiger; it had all along been nothing more than a paper tiger.
To the Biden administration’s credit, it did, however imperfectly, step up to honor America’s promise to the Ukrainian people. To the forever stain on the Repubican-led House, it failed for months to vote for additional funds and weapons at a time when the need for both was critical. Eventually the House voted for the funds and weapons and then, to the forever stain on the presidency, the Trump administration cut off the funds and weapons, and severed the lifeline of military intelligence to the Ukrainian people. The 1994 promise to defend the Ukrainian people died.
Now, we are seeking a false peace, a peace to be bought with Ukrainian soil. We are recognizing the appearance of Russian strength at a time when the reality is one of Russian tottering. It is a false strength, not a real one. The Russians no longer support infantry advances with tanks and other armored vehicles. Mules and horses deliver food and supplies to Russian soldiers at front. Russian soldiers advance on motorcycles and ATVs and in civilian cars.
The path to the Nobel Peace prize will not be earned through appeasement and a false peace; it will come from perseverance in the face of a tottering Russian army. The path to the Nobel Peace prize will be earned when the last Russian soldier leaves the Ukraine and when Crimea is returned to Ukrainian sovereignty. Anything less allows Russia to define for itself the appearance of its strength when the reality is that it is nothing more than a paper tiger.
Jake from state farm says
@EdP — it looks like SkiBum and the rest of the perpetually outraged liberal brigade are clutching their soy lattes a little tighter today. The comments under this article are a masterclass in emotional unraveling. You can almost hear the collective scream echoing through the Whole Foods parking lot every time the Trump administration racks up another win.
It’s as if each success story chisels away at their delicate, soul-of-a-snowflake core. And now, with what appears to be actual movement toward peace — you know, the thing they supposedly care about — you’d think they’d be dancing in the streets. But no. Because if Trump has anything to do with it, they’d rather gnaw off their own Birkenstocks than admit progress.
Meanwhile, Europe is gasp stepping up and taking on some real responsibility — a concept so foreign to the liberal mindset, it might as well require a passport. The economy? Still chugging along. Apparently, it didn’t get the memo that it was supposed to collapse under the weight of orange tweets. Oh and were is WWIII? I thought that was going on. It seems to have faded from the news.
And let’s not forget that glorious “transitory” inflation brought to you by the Biden administration, which lingered longer than Kamala at a campaign photo op. But don’t worry, that economic fever dream is fading too.
So yes, it’s shaping up to be a very long three years for the professional hand-wringers. Stock up on tissues, folks — the liberal lunatics are in for a rough ride.
Pogo says
@Kinda cute
… little rush limbaugh, giving archie bunker tongue. Signs and omens — and proof: after you’ve heard it all, take a break and watch paint dry.
Skibum says
Both Ed P and Jake apparently have no clue what diplomacy and peace negotiation is about and what it should look like. Contrast the spectacles from drumph meeting with the Russian dictator the other day, and then see the optics of his meeting yesterday with Zelenskyy and the several other European leaders.
Putin was welcomed and treated like he was The Pope, not the murderous thug the man actually is after he orchestrated the invasion of another sovereign country and is responsible for killing thousands of Ukrainian citizens. He was feted with a military flyover, a ride in the presidential limousine, and most remarkably, treated by drumph as if Putin is an equal. Not once during their meeting did drumph have to interrupt to pause their talks so he could go consult with the Ukrainian president, and in fact drumph only notified Zelenskyy sometime afterward to let him know what they had talked about.
Does anyone believe drumph sat behind a large desk and made Putin sit in a chair in front of him like he was a school student being called in to see the principal during their meeting? Of course not! They sat and talked between themselves like the U.S. and Russia are equals, which we are certainly NOT!
Then yesterday’s meeting with Zelenskyy and the European officials was handled completely differently, with the optics that were shown on this morning’s national news verifying the striking difference that drumph associates with Europe. There was a photo after all the assembled people in yesterday’s meeting in the oval office started their discussions. There drumph was, seated behind his enormous desk like he was God himself, and all of the others were in chairs facing his desk like they had been in a school fight and were called to the principal’s office to be lectured and disciplined. The optics could not have been more stark from how he treated Putin a few days prior. During the talks with Zelenskyy and the European leaders, drumph paused it so he could go “consult” with Putin while the others had to sit there and wait him out. How disgusting, how disrespectful, how downgrading it appeared to the world leaders like drumph was some Russian stooge who needed the approval of Putin regarding negotiations.
It may come as a complete surprise to drumph, but HELLO!!!… the U.S. is Ukraine’s ally, NOT Russia’s!!!
Yesterday’s meeting, to negotiate a peace deal, should have been set up to properly stage a normal meeting like this, at a round table or similar set up where it would not give a false assumption that the U.S. president was the supreme authority who will be making any decision about what a peace deal looks like between two other nations. Absolutely reprehensible conduct once again on the part of drumph, who fashions himself as a “deal maker” but has not one iota of common sense to make any deal unless it involves some mob tactics that he mistakes for “negotiation”. “I’m gonna make you an offer you can’t refuse.” (Call in the dark suited thugs standing to the side with guns).
Well, drumph has NO guns in this fight to try to demand anything, and the European leaders who were there yesterday have been much more supportive of Ukraine and given them more money and resources than the U.S. has anyway. So they are on a much more even footing than we are… the U.S. should be A NEGOTIATOR, a mediator, but instead drumph continues to prostrate himself at the foot of a murderous Russian dictator and acts in deference to the aggressor, instead of the president of Ukraine who’s country is the actual innocent victim in this fight!
Maybe Ed P and Jake need to remove their rose colored glasses, after they take their entire heads out of the sand, and start looking at reality instead of just mimicking farcical talking points from right-wing media sycophants to the idiot in the WH’s contemptuous and one-sided attempt at “peace negotiations” a la drumph style. Ridiculous Russian ass kissing nonsense is what it really amounts to!
Ed P says
Skibum,
Did you ever once think of the optics of having the meeting in Alaska , once part of Putins coveted Russian Empire? Selling it was a strategic blunder only eclipsed by the fall of the empire in Putins world.
You missed the actual significance of Trump making Putin walk to him on that red carpet. Or Trump pulling Putin in on the handshake and monetarily later cover the handshake with his second hand. All power moves. You missed the deer in the headlight expression Putin’s face when that b2 bomber flew over, the same one that recently flew 3600 miles to degrade his Iranian friends nuclear facilities.
Giving Putin a ride in the beast demonstrated that 100% of the control was Trump’s.
Your hatred of everything Trump clouds reality. I just describe what most rational thinking Americans saw.
You described what the fringe left saw while hoping that Trump fails just because it was Trump. I suspect some people would prefer failure and a protracted war just because it’s Trump.
It’s rich that you think I need to take off my rose colored glasses as pragmatic as I approach problems. Trumps personal appeal to me is because we both monetize everything. It is nonexistent with career politicians or business people who never held fiduciary responsibility, answering to a board and share holder.
The concept of monetizing opportunities, approaching them from America first is the only way our tax dollars should be spent.
Your posts indicate a totally different philosophical/ideological perspective.Not necessarily wrong, but you’re the open minded, woke, all knowing person who has devolved into ranting, raving, and name calling. Not me.
Foresee says
Ed P and Jake are so in love with Trump, they have a man crush on him, Trump can do no wrong.
Skibum says
OMG Ed, I don’t think you can be saved from the maga poison that has infected your brain. Yes, I am fully aware that we acquired what is now the State of Alaska from the Russians.
You conflate a whole lot of fairytale power moves to drumph’s made up “brilliance”, especially when it comes to anything trumpty dumpty could possibly do to influence or persuade Putin to do what drumph wants unless it is in Putin’s interest. Is it not lost on you that the Russian murderous thug is a longtime communist spy chief who I believe has a whole lot more marbles between his ears than the orange-faced whiny baby who has a penchant for ranting, pouting when he doesn’t get his whittle way, poor baby. His tantrums have included throwing ketchup at the walls in our nation’s WH. He is not in any sense of the word a genius except to the mush brains who prostrate themselves on the ground before him to kiss his feet as if he is Jesus reincarnated.
GET REAL!
Ray W, says
A Rutgers University-Newark professor of political science submitted an unusual and provocative opinion piece about the war in the Ukraine that was published by The Hill.
Here are a few of the bullet points from the piece:
– That the Donbas, located at the far-eastern edge of the Ukraine, was for decades the “industrial powerhouse” of the Soviet Union, but it began a long decline in economic might in the 70’s and 80’s.
– There was a time when residents of the Donbas “claimed to have an exalted status belied by a wretched reality.”
– And for a time, “[t]he Donbas fed the corrupt appetites of local politicians, oligarchs and organized crime.”
– When the Ukraine achieved independence in 1991, it inherited a “value-destroying territory.”
– By 2015, according to an economist writing on the subject of the 2014 invasion at the time, the Donbas had become “a rust belt of old mines, steel mills and chemical factories. Almost all the coal mines and chemical factories are inactive. … The rebels have blown up the railway bridges, complicating bulk transportation.”
– In 2016, demographic estimates of displaced Donbas citizens included 500,000 fleeing to Russia, 1.2 million internally displaced throughout the rest of the Ukraine, and 100,000 fleeing elsewhere. Some 1.5 million of the pre-war 3.3 million Donbas residents remained, as of 2015.
– It is unknown how many of those 1.5 million Donbas residents still reside in Donbas. With fighting since 2022 centered in and around the Donbas, who knows how many more of the 1.5 million have been killed or driven off. But of those who remain, it is estimated that many are elderly and impoverished, therefor far less able to contribute to rebuilding a demolished economy. In such “an environmental hell hole”, just who would want to return after peace comes to the Donbas?
– To attempt to rebuild the Donbas today would take an estimated $200 billion, which is more than the Ukraine’s total GDP for a year, money that the Ukraine simply does not have. In other words, attempting to fix the Donbas would bankrupt the Ukraine. Much of the Donbas’ groundwater is contaminated from flooded coal mines. Hundreds of environmentally sensitive sites have been overrun by the fighting.
– But the Russian economy, while some 10 times that of the Ukrainian economy, does not have the extra resources to rebuild the Donbas either. Gaining the Donbas in a peace settlement would likely bankrupt Russia, too.
– Should Russia gain the Donbas in any peace settlement, the author argues that pro-Ukrainian elements would likely continue to assassinate local officials and sabotage plants, among other acts of defiance. The same might happen by pro-Russian elements should the Ukraine keep the Donbas in a peace settlement.
Make of this what you will.
Sherry says
One broken record for many different Maga “Trolls” = “TDS”! “TDS”! Forget those facts! Forget that trump is a “Liar, a Twice Impeached Convicted Felon and a Sexual Abuser”! Everything’s about that “TDS”! Complete Fools! LOL! LOL! LOL!
Pogo says
@Many sound comments
… and this to consider too: after Putin — what will become of Russia’s nuclear weapons (and give a moment’s thought to chemical AND biological weapons too)?!
Sweet dreams.
Sherry says
Thank you for trying Skibum. Unfortunately there is no reasoning with those who are so hate filled, immoral and brainwashed in their complete and utter devotion to their lord and master trump that they refuse to acknowledge that trump is not perfect in every way.
Actually, IMO. trump is the “criminal” mind that is actively destroying our democratic freedoms. Maga core members (not Republicans) are supporting trump’s growing fascism 100%. Unfortunately, it seems that no amount of “factual information” and credible analysis will sway that unthinking “cult” mentality.
We are all trying to awaken them from their stubborn, soul rotting cult stupor in different ways. Let’s hope the “spell” will somehow be broken before the US falls into complete destruction!