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Flurry of Polls Show Gillum and Nelson Decisively Edging Past DeSantis and Scott

| November 5, 2018

Andrew Gillum likes what he sees. Ron DeSantis, not so much. (© FlaglerLive)

Andrew Gillum likes what he sees. Ron DeSantis, not so much. (© FlaglerLive)

Six polls published Sunday and today show Andrew Gillum ahead of Ron DeSantis in the race for governor, and five of the six polls show Bill nelson ahead of Rick Scott in the race for U.S. Senate. Some of the polls show both Democratic candidates with majorities that are now outside the margin of error.

The two most reputable polls in the series–NBC News/Marist, and Quinnipiac University, which have an A and an A-minus rating in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rating–both give Gillum a 7-point advantage, well outside the margin of error, and Nelson a 4-point advantage, still within the margin by fractions.

In 2014, Quinnipiac’s last poll before Election Day had Charlie Crist ahead of Rick Scott by 2 points, well within the margin of error. Scott eventually won by 1.1 percentage points. At the time, Quinnipiac called it too close to call, something it is not doing with Nelson and Gillum this time. No numbers favor DeSantis this time.

In the 2014 governor’s race, Crist had a mere 7-point advantage among independents. Gillum now has a 13-point advantage among independents–the key to most statewide Florida races–a 14-point advantage among women, and he splits men 46-46. That last figure is notable, and bad news for DeSantis: in 2014, Scott was leading among men by 13 points. DeSantis would have a hard time winning without a solid majority among men and more inroads among independents. (Crist had the same advantage Gillum has among women.) His only advantage is among white voters, a demographic he leads by 13 points.

“Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 – 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum’s 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome,” Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown said.

Nelson’s advantage over Scott mirrors that of Gillum’s, with double-digit leads among women, independents and Hispanics, and a split in the vote among men.

“Candidates with double- digit leads among independents rarely lose,” Brown said. “There is little difference in the two races. Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats.”

The Marist poll gives Gillum a crushing 20-point lead among independents (and 18 points for Nelson): if that sort of number holds, it would easily neutralize the advantage the GOP has been playing up in the past two weeks–its clear lead among the 4.3 million Floridians casting ballots in early voting. But the lead vanishes when Democrats’ numbers are combined with those of independents.

Both the Quinnipiac and Marist polls showed Gillum and Nelson gaining since the last Marist poll, as was the case with Quinnipiac, suggesting that Donald Trump’s rhetoric in the last two weeks of the campaign, much of it laced in lies about immigrants, has not resonated in the two Florida Republican candidates’ favor. Trump’s approval rating has also fallen in the period, the poll found. Marist found both Democrats to have higher likability ratings, while both Republicans have more unfavorable than favorable ratings in that regard: DeSantis in particular, at home behind a television camera, has had difficulty connecting with voters in person.

Other polls showing Nelson ahead in the past two days include St. Pete Polls, by 4 points, Emerson, by 5 points, and Gravis Marketing, by 3 points. Those three polls get a B-minus, a B-plus and a C-plus, respectively, from FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rating. The only poll to show Scott ahead of Nelson is NRF/Harris (the conservative he Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and National Retail Federation, which relies on HarrisX for its polls, conducted online. Harris Interactive gets a C-plus from FiveThirtyEight.)

For Gillum, even NRF/Harris shows a 3-point lead. Gravis gives Gillum a 1-point lead, Emerson and St. Pete both give him 5 points. In Real Clear Politics’ combined average, Nelson leads by 2.5 points, Gillum by 3.1, numbers that, at this point, should seem insurmountable. But polling remains an inexact science, and early voting numbers suggest that past off-year elections, on whose data pollsters generally rely for their methods, are no longer a guide.

24 Responses for “Flurry of Polls Show Gillum and Nelson Decisively Edging Past DeSantis and Scott”

  1. combat vet says:

    Dream on!

  2. Don Schulze says:

    You are dreaming. On Wednesday, instead of a blue wave the Democrats will be cryin’ the blues!

  3. Dave says:

    For a better run state ,Gillum and Nelson are a must. The state cant afford to allow itself to continue on the path it is.

  4. Richard says:

    If anyone thinks that I am stupid enough to believe ANY polls regardless of who they are predicting is out front need I remind you how accurate the polls were 2 years ago. This is just another Democratic way that they lie to the American people but trust me most people with a smidgeon of common sense can see right through your smoke sceen.

  5. Agkistrodon says:

    If Gillium manages to get elected, all those Dems who moved here from high taxed DEMOCRAT states to live with lower taxes, I will laugh at YOU. Perhaps you should NOT have also brought your liberal politics with you. Enjoy.

  6. Palmcoaster says:

    Sure! they both got our votes GOP and NPA! Hope they succeed.

  7. gmath55 says:

    Nancy Pelosi is an idiot

    Maxine Waters’ district is THE worst place to live in America

    Democrats are losers!

  8. jake says:

    Damn, I was hoping smart people would be voting, instead, all the dumb asses of Florida voting blue, kill me now.

  9. Jimb0 says:

    Sounds from posts that some are are still holding on hope. Good for you. As a republican for over 40 years, I am hoping the Democrats take all so we have some balance in our divisive government driven by the trumpeters. Nothing but divisiveness with the trumpeters – around race, gender, sexual orientation. And the invasion coming that we are spending millions on having troops at the border. (I am a veteran)

    With 2 heart attacks already, I can’t afford my health care now never mind when the trumpeters take away all preexisting condition coverage or make it so out of reach.

    This isn’t the republican party I experienced throughout my life. Something happened. Someone took them down a one way street.

  10. Concerned Resident says:

    Yes! Let’s go Florida! Let’s get back to the United States; not the divided states. Gillum all the way!

  11. anony says:

    The republicans have invited hatred, ugliness, lies and terror into their midst. They also were responsible for the Great Recession where so many lost their jobs and homes and ended up on the street. I met several of them – whole families homeless begging for a place to stay, a job, money for gas. It’s time to cleanse the toxic corrupt red tide of liars, terrorists, nazis, facists and russian lovers with a cleansing, purifying blue wave. What would YOU rather swim in – a toxic, deadly red tide pool, or a refreshing, clean BLUE pool?

  12. ConstantlyAmazed says:

    Polls ? Romberg this famous polls:


    Are you talking about those polls ?

  13. Deb says:

    Oh boy I can’t wait for the tax increases. News this evening.

  14. Anonymous says:

    Does god make any descent , honest politicians

  15. mausborn says:

    Trump didn’t have an issue with chain migration when citizenship was given to Melania’s parents this year.
    Alright America VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! Let’s vote all of these Republicans out of office. Strange how Republicans are more afraid of caravans thousands of miles away, than of going bankrupt by medical bills, or rising cost of living due to tarrifs and higher interest rates.

  16. Lamo says:

    Pray for Florida, it takes true ignorance to vote for Gillum.

  17. Dave says:

    Constantly Amazed, yes i do remember the polls having Hillary ahead, I also remember her winning the popular vote by a land slide. Can you say tilted unfair gerrymandering?

  18. mark101 says:

    Maybe this time America will get it right. The Big Blue will come out on top in the key areas.

  19. gmath55 says:

    Most of the people who voted in the 2016 presidential election voted for Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is the president-elect.

    Here are the final numbers:

    Clinton received 65,844,610 votes, or 48.2% of the total vote.

    Trump received 62,979,636 votes, or 46.1% of the total vote. (That’s a difference of 2.86 million votes.)

    A difference of 2.1% and that is a landslide? Please tell me you didn’t major in math!

    The remaining 5.7% of the vote went to other candidates, like Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMullin, and, I don’t know, write-ins for flesh-eating bacteria.

  20. Katie Semore says:

    A whole lot of Trump voters have turned. They got smart in the past two years.

  21. Jake says:

    “A whole lot of Trump voters have turned. They got smart in the past two years.”

    Guess again, Katie.

    Polls have been known to be wrong, again.

  22. Instigator says:

    Looks like folks finally came to their senses. You were really going to vote for tax increases?? Really?
    Congrats to Governor elect DeSantis and Senator elect Scott!!

  23. Richard says:

    Yes, a whole lot of Trump voters have definitely turned into people who are smarter and wiser as they have seen through the smoke screens of the left. LMAO

  24. Agkistrodon says:

    I painted my hand blue and I’m waving at you. There, is your blue wave……..

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