“It’s the economy, stupid.” That was Bill Clinton strategist James Carville’s famous epitaph for George Bush’s loss in 1992. Donald Trump’s confidence about winning a second term could be similarly summed up: It’s the electoral college, stupid. He wouldn’t be wrong.
A constellation of national polls show Joe Biden’s lead anywhere from 3 to 18 percent, though his battleground state polls are much, much narrower: from 1 to 6 percent. In other words, almost most are within the margin of error. Or terror, if you’re hoping for a Trump loss.
Out there in the Kuiper Belt two or three pollsters generally favorable to the president have him winning Tuesday. They may be right–not because the polls are wrong. They’re not. But because once the margin of error is accounted for–it’s there for a reason: uncertainty is the human factor behind the numbers–the polls can be accurate and Trump can win, simply by eking out victories in even fewer states than he did in 2016.
It comes down to Florida and Pennsylvania. If Trump holds those two states, he doesn’t need Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota, assuming he also holds Arizona and North Carolina. Not necessarily an easy scenario, but not the insurmountable one Biden fans are making it out to be: Biden’s lead in none of those states is bankable. Democrats had a good lead in ballots cast so far in Florida, but Republicans have been narrowing it steadily and may erase it by Tuesday. The Democrats’ lead in Pennsylvania is larger so far, but far fewer votes have been turned in: most Pennsylvanian are voting in person.
And if non-college-educated white men were Trump’s ace in 2016, when pollsters ignored that demographic, Latinos are the invisible men of this election, and I do mean men: women aren’t as easily swayed by Trump’s “Potemkin patriarchy,” as Susan Faludi describes it. Latino men (and more Black men than voted for Trump in 2016) could provide the Hail Mary margins of 2016 in just those states where Trump needs them most. It looks like they’re doing it in Florida and Pennsylvania. If that holds, he’s halfway there. The rest is downhill. So the polls aren’t wrong, except maybe in Pennsylvania, where pollsters got it quite wrong in 2016 anyway. The Pennsylvanian topography isn’t as malleable as pollsters’ biases.
How to account for those national polls that have Biden winning by double digits? Again, the polls aren’t wrong, if we average them out and down to the more reasonable margin of 6 to 8 points. But they lead to outdated conclusions based on previous elections’ assumptions.
The nation is growing more polarized from election to election, not more purple. The blue-state vote gave Clinton a majority of nearly 3 million four years ago, and that was when Trump was running up his own red-state scores by big margins. This year the solid-blue states are voting in more massive numbers for Biden, and the red states are all voting for Trump in much slimmer margins than in 2016, at least according to polls: His Texas margin in 2016 was 9. It’s now 3, in a state that’s already matched the total vote of 2016 in ballots cast. Iowa was 10. It’s 1. West Virginia gave him a 44-point margin four years ago. It’s down to 29. And so on: Kentucky, 31 to 21, Idaho, 37 to 26, even Wyoming, 51 down to 40.
So a much less talked about phenomenon of this election is that Biden is stacking up millions of votes Clinton didn’t have from red states. But those states are still red, and the blue states are just bluer. Under that scenario, you can have a 6 to 8 million Biden popular vote margin in line with the national polls that see him, on average, winning by 7 percent (the actual divide will almost certainly be smaller). The end result is still the same. Trump wins the electoral college.
Of course it wouldn’t be easy and a lot of assumptions would have to align. And if Latino men are a key factor in this election, Texas may well live up to its old tourism campaign in the 2000s: “It’s more than you think.” In this case, it’s the youth vote in Texas that’s smashing all records and that could tip the state blue for the first time since Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976. If Texas goes blue, all bets are off and Trump can turn his attention to the popup books he’ll want for his presidential library. But we’re not there. Like its Hill Country, Texas can beguile and deceive.
Instead and back on earth, a Trump win seems to be less improbable than in 2016, not more, simply because of the narrower margins in battleground states and some of those less-calculated factors such as the Latino vote. (That the electoral college is as undemocratic and politically unconscionable as the three-fifth compromise is irrelevant. That’s the system we have.)
Because of the Texas factor and those blue-trending polls there’s talk of a Biden blowout. That too is possible. But if you’re the betting kind, you might want to take a look at the average in current odds, which has stayed in the 60-30 range for Biden all months, and remains there even 100 hours from Election Day. That’s not a confidence booster for Biden voters, considering that Clinton’s odds were far better this time four years ago.
If I were betting, I’d bet on Trump. But since I don’t bet on weapons of mass destruction, I’m shopping for shrinks and booking ahead for a Baker Act.
Pierre Tristam is FlaglerLive’s editor. Reach him by email here.
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Only Me says
As they saying goes, it isn’t over until the Fat Lady Sings. And for those people that have decided to vote for Trump, we will all remind you if he wins and your rights have been taken away from you. Also when someone in your family or yourself gets the virus and Donald didn’t come to help you out.
He has yet to tell even his own party what his plans are for 2021 but those supporters still feel that is ok as well as him bullying and threatening people. What is wrong with this country? What brought those people to feel the anger that Donald feels? I will never understand it.
Mark says
Which rights has Trump taken away? The right to life (abortions). Our right to vote? Our right to keep and bear arms? Has he shut down our right to free speech? Or maybe has signed some law to keep us from worshiping as we want to? Has he ordered our books be burned? Has he put us in reeducation camps. Has he restricted our travel plans? I missed it because I can’t remember a right he has taken away. I know he took away our right to be forced to pay for a health care plan we didn’t want. Hope fully he will get rid of our right to wear a seatbelt.
Stephen Ward says
Hes taken away our dignity and decency and divided Americans to either its his way or you are human scum. He has embarrased our Nation Internationally and taken away our Trust in his Office to do the right thing for ALL not his self image. He has taken needless lives of Citizens by lying to the World. He is a disgrace a fraud an Egomaniac who will continue to condition and blurr the lines of right and wrong for his own selfish gains. He has NO plan for C19,Immigration, Infrastructure, Healthcare etc. He is a pump and dumper of the Stock Market which is his only barometer of the Economy.IMO the rush to open was to save his own crumbling empire. Want me to keep going. He had the oppurtunity to do the right thing and BLEW IT. Deal with it.
Mark says
My decency and dignity are intact thank you. You still don’t list any rights that have been taken away. Just a bunch of emotional thoughts opinions. Divided Americans? Many cities are getting ready for election day violence. Violence from who? From the rioting conservatives? No plans according to who? Embarrassed our nation? Was it with mideast peace plans, getting NATO members to pay their agreed upon dues, bring our troops home, not starting any wars, dealing with North Korea and preventing war, concluding fairer trade deals, or not paying countries to hate us? Which one/s? People don’t want to get back to work or get back to normal?
Steve says
Good for you I never mentioned rights try reading what was printed. Hs an embarrassment
mike says
Heard all the doom and gloom of all the terrible stuff Trump was going to do in 2016. None of the left’s predictions came true, instead the economy flourished among other positive things. Only bad thing that happened was COVID, Which he did not cause. What makes you think the left has any credibility this time ?
Mythoughts says
Try getting sick without any health care insurance you will be bankrupt. If you do have Obama Care Insurance that too will be gone. No one is taking anyone’s guns away. If your received social security which is the right of all those that paid into it that will be gone.
For those that feel wearing a mask or wearing a seatbelt to protect their life or their loved ones or a stranger is taking away their freedom very sad that people are that selfish that they don’t care about their own life or others.
Mark says
What does one do if they can’t afford the outrageous ACA deductibles? Why did Biden say “Bingo” when asked about coming after guns? (yes I know he was talking about AR style guns, although he has no idea what an assault weapon is) If I have a weapon that he declares illegal he will be coming after my gun. So, “no one is taking anyone’s guns away”? Think again. Your crystal ball must be broke. SS is not a right, and everyone has said they are not touching it. Has anyone touched it yet. As a proud mask wearer, your analogy doesn’t work. Wearing a seatbelt is a requirement to drive a licensed, registered, insured vehicle. A seatbelt does not equate to a mask. A mask is not a proven safety device. Since 85% of people who have contracted the virus were mask wearers what do masks protect you from?There are no standards for a mask. You can wear anything from panties to a plastic bag. What works and what doesn’t? If you have breathing problems what gives you the right to selfishly endanger others by not wearing a mask? How about your right to breath?
LynnCap says
Totally agree 100%! I pray Trumpers open their eyes, blinded by lies and false hopes. If Trump wins your all gonna hear a lot of… told you so! Your all gonna be going boo who who.
Geneva Ayte says
This is not Biden v. Trump. It is what is known as a “centrally planned economy” (go look that up) v. a market economy. It’s that simple. Unfortunately, this is way over your head. If Biden wins, the United States will out-France France. I know you don’t understand that, but others will.
Pierre Tristam says
His Smugness above is so wrapped up in his guy’s lurch right that everything left of tiki torches in Charlottesville must look like a “centrally planned economy,” something not even Scandinavia’s socialists–let alone France’s–practice. Biden would be right of Macron, but nowhere near the neofascist, bigoted National Front to the right of which Trump has taken his party. I’d suggest His Smugness could look it up, but his first go at economic theory suggests he wouldn’t know how. Maybe an image will help. Sorry it doesn’t popup.
Richard says
Only the left chooses to believe in the polls. There are some of us that have more common sense than that. Then later they need extensive consoling when Trump wins well over 300 Electoral Votes. I have purchased 20 truckloads of tissues stored up just for the occasion, $10 a box.
Mark says
Like! We need to keep guns away from liberals too. They may hurt themselves.
Trump/Covid 2020 says
How’d that prediction work out for you? Enjoy your tissues. Like a wise man once told me “It’s better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt”.
Korean vet says
Please watch the rallies . Trump has thousands at his rally and Biden is still hiding behind his mask and in his basement . The ex VP has a health issue and we don’t want a pres with a health problem and we sure as hell don’t wan caaaammmmLa running our great country . Let’s watch the great RED wave on tues . God protect our great country and our men in blue . See you all at the polls tues . The best is yet to com .Joe We Re coming .
Uhhhhh says
And your point? Biden reaches millions online. Why do I need to go to a rally when I already know who I’m voting for? This is 2020, people don’t have to stand shoulder to shoulder like sheep, well that is unless you are one which is exactly what these people are, sheep. You’re delusional if you think there is a red wave coming unless it’s a red wave of death from the covid rallies. Those rallies are nothing but to stroke your Fuhrer’s ego. He doesn’t care about you. He wouldn’t even shake your hand or invite you into his home for a cup of coffee. In all honesty, though, nether would I because you revealed that you are just like Trump. By extension, you are a misogynist, sexist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic individual.
Are you like Trump too, where you sold the soul and secrets of America to help your own personal interests? Did you approve the slaughter of our Kurdish allies by Erdogan because you wanted to keep your business relationship in place? Did you look the other way when Putin put bounties on American troops heads? Did you condemn Xi when he built concentration camps for the Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other ethnic Turkic Muslims, Christians in China?
What exactly makes you a Trump supporter that isn’t smothered in fake cries of socialist leftist agenda, which by the way has yet to happen in any Dem presidency, or steeped in the same boring lines of God, Gays, Guns, and Abortion. What makes you salivate for Trump? Not a single person has been able to tell me why they support him without saying something completely offensive about a group of people. Listen, you had four years to make America white again, I mean great again, and it’s been an abject failure, just like your Fuhrer. Prepare for the blue tsunami that will slap you silly. The only way Trump wins is if he cheats because that’s the only way he knows how to win in life with his narcissistic sociopathic ideology. It’s his MO and his actions, words, and criminal activity is completely un-American.
Nancy N. says
Korean vet, can you clarify for me…is Joe’s basement in Iowa, Minnesota, or Wisconsin? Because those are the states he is appearing in today, so I’m a bit confused. And yesterday he was here in Florida…and we don’t even HAVE basements…so…that’s extra confusing.
But in all seriousness, following proper guidelines advised by the CDC should be applauded not denigrated. That’s what a role model, a good leader with peoples’ best interests at heart, should be doing right now.
JJ says
Korean Vet, Thanks for your service. You’re obviously an honorable person for protecting the rights of all Americans. I sure am glad you didn’t need a Bone Spurs Doctor to help you dodge the draft.
Please find another news source, because you’re only getting one third of the facts.
Also, maybe some day, the name Kamala will be American enough for you.
Agkistrodon says
Biden got 5 deferments from Vietnam. What was his excuse? And that comes from a Disabled Vet as well.
Carl Lewis says
You mean Trump got 5 deferments! That article you link to in your post is about Trump’s deferments!
Gary R says
@Carl – They were both draft dodgers. Both got 5 deferments.
Mark says
Try this link:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/16/fact-check-biden-received-multiple-draft-deferments-vietnam/5809482002/
5 deferments for asthma.
LetThemEatCake says
It’s not the size of the rallies, it’s how you use them. Just saying…
Jim says
Non-educated white men voted for Trump in 2016? You continue to be an elitist and not really in-touch with the population as a whole. Shame on you!
Pierre Tristam says
That should have been non-college educated white men Jim, as it’s now been corrected (thanks), though a demographic voting block has nothing to do with elitism. Incidentally, you might want to recall that it’s Trump who’s called these followers “disgusting people.” Talk about being in touch.
Bonnie says
Hello. I don’t LIKE Trump, and I don’t HATE Biden. I voted FOR Trump, so AGAINST Biden. The election is not a popularity contest, folks. Yes, Trump can be an ass at times, and Biden gets very angry and defensive. (Don’t know why). What drove my vote is the fact that Trump gets things done, and looking at Biden’s record, I can’t see much. Yes, he was VP for 8 years, but he had Obama directing him.You people that HATE Trump need to look at a list of his accomplishments, before you vote. Yes, Trump could of handled Covid better, but even now the best doctors don’t have a very good handle on the virus. And for those folks who make generalizations that all people who vote for Trump are xenophobic, mysoginistic, and racist, etc. You know that is not true. Trump voters come from all walks of life and are just like the rest of you. Look back at Biden’s history. He was best friends with Robert Byrd who at one time was a klansman. In a speech at Byrd’s funeral, Biden called Byrd “his inspiration”. Remove hate from the equation, and your selection for the right candidate will be so much easier.
Carl Lewis says
Unfortunately, one can’t remove hate from the equation, because hate is what Trump has sown from day one of his campaigning in 2015. He has sown hate and fear and pitted American against American. He has created the “Us” versus “Them” mentality and has called on his supporters to attack journalists at his rallies and even incited his supporters to violence against a sitting State Governor. He has refused to condemn White Supremacists even when one of them drove his car into a crowd and killed a peaceful protestor. Note: Peaceful Protestor! He has preached Blue states vs Red states, threatening to withhold federal assistance from so-called Blue States. Division, Fear and Hate.
As for his accomplishments:
• More than 100 environmental regulations repealed, including many involving the Clean Air Act, and also the Clean Water Act. See the evolving list: https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/regulatory-rollback-tracker/
• Signed into law tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy. See https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tax-plan-consequences/. Unless you are extremely wealthy, you would be ill advised to vote for Trump!
• Met with the North Korean leader, one of the worst dictators in the world, with no good results for the US
• Started a trade war with China that has resulted in the American people having to pay tariffs enacted by Trump. Remember, we pay those tariffs, not China!
• Weakened the little health care assistance we do have and threatening to completely repeal the Affordable Care Act, with no replacement or plan in place
• Threatened to stop payroll taxes for Medicare. Again, unless you can afford to pay over $2,000 per person per month for medical insurance in retirement, do not vote Trump.
• Alienated our international allies, insulted the leaders of our law enforcement agencies and armed forces
• Over 230,000 Americans dead from Covid-19; more than any other country in the world. The doctors do indeed have a handle on how to stop the spread of the virus, Trump and his supporting governors just won’t listen to them. Look at other countries and notice how the ones that did early lockdown, enforce mask wearing and stay locked down long enough had very few deaths: New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan, for example.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
I must say that I do not understand how a person who purports to be a reasonable person can vote for Trump after his dismal track record over the last four years!
Sheila Zinkerman says
Mark’s question is a good one: “What rights has Trump taken away?” That question should be answered from a broader perspective given that Mr Trump has issued “damaging initiatives” that continue to threaten both domestic and global human rights. Columbia Human Rights Law Review has documented at least 73 potential human rights violations since his inauguration. Many of these cases end up in court to determine if they are in fact a violation of human rights (re: trumphumanrightstracker.) This list includes (but is not limited to) the victims and their rights that Mr Trump and his administration has undermined with their initiatives. Below is an example.
The Victims: Federal workers; asylum seekers; migrants; children; women; mothers; fathers; families; detainees; civilians killed in US air strikes; Puerto Ricans; Haitians; Salvadorans; Muslims; incarcerated citizens
Rights Potentially Violated: security; equal protection; living standards; freedom of expression; freedom of religion; non-discrimination; global human rights; liberty; education; individual health; participation.
https://trumphumanrightstracker.law.columbia.edu/
Carl Lewis says
Unfortunately, one can’t remove hate from the equation, because hate is what Trump has sown from day one of his campaigning in 2015. He has sown hate and fear and pitted American against American. He has created the “Us” versus “Them” mentality and has called on his supporters to attack journalists at his rallies and even incited his supporters to violence against a sitting State Governor. He has refused to condemn White Supremacists even when one of them drove his car into a crowd and killed a peaceful protestor. Note: Peaceful Protestor! He has preached Blue states vs Red states, threatening to withhold federal assistance from so-called Blue States. Division, Fear and Hate.
As for his accomplishments:
• More than 100 environmental regulations repealed, including many involving the Clean Air Act, and also the Clean Water Act. See the evolving list: https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/regulatory-rollback-tracker/
• Signed into law tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy. See https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tax-plan-consequences/. Unless you are extremely wealthy, you would be ill advised to vote for Trump!
• Met with the North Korean leader, one of the worst dictators in the world, with no good results for the US
• Started a trade war with China that has resulted in the American people having to pay tariffs enacted by Trump. Remember, we pay those tariffs, not China!
• Weakened the little health care assistance we do have and threatening to completely repeal the Affordable Care Act, with no replacement or plan in place
• Threatened to stop payroll taxes for Medicare. Again, unless you can afford to pay over $2,000 per person per month for medical insurance in retirement, do not vote Trump.
• Alienated our international allies, insulted the leaders of our law enforcement agencies and armed forces
• He has been trying to weaken and dismantle one of our most venerable institutions, the US Postal Service. For him and Louis DeJoy to make service reductions just ahead of the election is unconscionable. This is a disservice to all Americans not least of all the thousands of hardworking men and women who, come rain or shine, work hard to get our mail delivered in record time. Instead of the government helping its workers during this time of pandemic, they are reducing their working hours.
• Over 230,000 Americans dead from Covid-19; more than any other country in the world. The doctors do indeed have a handle on how to stop the spread of the virus, Trump and his supporting governors just won’t listen to them. Look at other countries and notice how the ones that did early lockdown, enforce mask wearing and stay locked down long enough had very few deaths: New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan, for example.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
In summary, can you mention one thing that Trump has done in the last four years that has actually helped you?
I must say that I do not understand how a person who purports to be a reasonable person can vote for Trump after his dismal track record over the last four years!
A. J. says
Did not vote for Trump. Do not like him
I voted for Biden. I think he has a heart for people unlike Trump. The great tax cut of 2017, for the big companies and the very rich. In 2021 I believe the middle class and the poor will hsve more taxes from their checks to pay for the tax cut. Obama Care will get thrown out as unconstitutional, no replacement. Good job Trump. I xan go on and on, do not have enough time. Who would vote for Trump after knowing his terrible work ethics. The only thing Trump did that I like was foring Comey, I think he is the reason Hillery was defeated