By Andrew Gawthorpe
Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, has been apprehended and flown to the US where the US attorney-general has announced he will face charges of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. The US military’s operation to snatch Maduro was carried out in the early hours of January 3 and follows months of steadily mounting pressure on the Venezuelan government.
Now it appears that the US operation to remove a leader it has designated as a “narco-terrorist” has come to fruition. But whether the capture and removal of Maduro will lead to regime change in the oil-rich Latin American country remains unclear at present.
The US campaign against Venezuela is the product of two distinct policy impulses within the Trump administration. The first is the long held desire of many Republican hawks, including the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, to force regime change in Caracas. They detest Venezuela’s socialist government and see overturning it as an opportunity to appeal to conservative Hispanic voters in the US.
The second impulse is more complex. Trump campaigned for election in 2024 on the idea that his administration would not become involved in foreign conflicts. But his administration claims that Venezuela’s government and military are involved in drug trafficking, which in Washington’s thinking makes them terrorist organisations that are harming the American people. As head of the country’s government, Maduro, according to the Trump administration’s logic is responsible for that.
During Trump’s first administration, his Department of Justice indicted Maduro on charges of “narco-terrorism”. Now Bondi says there might be a new indictment which also covers Maduro’s wife, who was taken into detention with him. The fact that US law enforcement was involved in their capture reinforces the idea that they will now face those charges in a New York court, despite an early claim by opposition sources in Venezuela that Maduro’s departure may have been negotiated with the US government.
What comes next?
The big question is what comes next in Venezuela, and whether either the Republican hawks or the “America first” crowd will get the outcome that they want: ongoing US military presence to “finish the job” or simply a show of US strength to punish its adversary which doesn’t involve a lengthy American involvement.
The US has discovered time and again in recent decades that it is extremely difficult to dictate the political futures of foreign countries with military force. The White House might want to see the emergence of a non-socialist government in Caracas, as well as one which cracks down on the drug trade. But simply removing Maduro and dropping some bombs is unlikely to achieve that goal after nearly three decades of bulding up the regime under Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez.
The Trump administration could have learned this lesson from Libya, whose dictatorial government the US and its allies overthrew in 2011. The country collapsed into chaos soon after, inflicting widespread suffering on its own citizens and creating problems for its neighbours.
In the case of Venezuela, it is unlikely that American military’s strikes alone will be enough to fatally undermine its government. Maduro may be gone, but the vast majority of the country’s governmental and military apparatus remains intact. Power will likely pass to a new figure in the regime.
The White House may dream that popular protests will break out against the government following Maduro’s ousting. But history shows that people usually react to being bombed by a foreign power by rallying around the flag, not turning against their leaders.
Nor would Venezuela’s descent into chaos be likely to help the Trump administration achieve its goals. Conflict in Venezuela could generate new refugee flows which would eventually reach America’s southern border. The collapse of central government authority would be likely to create a more conducive environment for drug trafficking. Widespread internal violence and human rights violations could hardly be portrayed as a victory to the crucial conservative Hispanic voting bloc.
If the Trump administration dreams of establishing a stable, pro-American government in Caracas, it is going to have to do more than just arrest Maduro. Bringing about durable regime change typically involves occupying a country with ground troops and engaging in “nation building”. The US tried this with decidedly mixed results in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump has pledged to avoid such entanglements and Rubio has said that, for now at least, the US has no plans for further military action against Venezuela. Trump has a penchant for flashy, quick wins, particularly in foreign policy. He may hope to tout Maduro’s capture as a victory and move on to other matters.
Nation-building failures
In almost no recent US military intervention did the American government set out to engage in nation-building right from the beginning. The perceived need to shepherd a new government into existence has typically only come to be felt when the limits of what can be accomplished by military force alone become apparent.
The war in Afghanistan, for instance, started as a war of revenge for the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11 2001 before transforming into a 20-year nation-building commitment. In Iraq, the Bush administration thought that it could depose Saddam Hussein and leave within a few months. The US ended up staying for nearly a decade.
It’s hard to imagine Trump walking down the same path, if only because he has always portrayed nation-building as a waste of American lives and treasure. But that still leaves him with no plausible way to achieve the divergent political outcomes he, his supporters and America’s foreign policy establishment want with the tools that he has at his disposal.
Meanwhile the US president will face pressure from a range of constituencies from Republican hawks to conservative Hispanic voters to force wholesale regime change in Venezuela. How Trump responds to that pressure will determine the future course of US policy towards the country.
Andrew Gawthorpe is Lecturer in History and International Studies at Leiden University.
R.S. says
This guy is trampling all international rules and regulations with both of his clumsy feet. When one thinks we’ve made some headway toward respecting other country’s governmental set-ups, a troglodyte like T-Rump comes along and upsets it all: T-Rump, Peuh-tin, and Xi Jin-Pang–birds of a feather! World Police, my donkey!!!
BIG Neighbor says
Is Greenland next? Just what does it take before this quasi act first, then frame policy approach implodes in our faces and we all, not just some, but all realize the gift of our founders has been squandered? Rubio should be ashamed of himself like any yes-man or woman should be.
Laurel says
Big Neighbor: Rubio reminds me of a woman (coworker) I once knew (unfortunately) who was *socializing* with a married man. She said she had already sinned so much, that she had no expectations of going to heaven, “So what the hell?” That’s how Rubio looks to me. Like someone who knows he sold his soul, and it’s too late now to do anything about it, so what the hell? Carry on. Just like that woman who slept with the man, in his wife’s bed, every time his wife was out of town.
Richard Fay says
To the point, Representative Randy Fine has abdicated his responsibilities to the constituents residing within the bounds of his electoral district, Florida’s Sixth Congressional District. There may be other constituencies who he supports and advocates for but in matters of international state affairs he is responsible for providing the approval for the President of the United States to enter into military excursions within another sovereign state. There is a congressional process for such approval.
I called both the Washington DC office and Local District, I spoke directly to an aide in the local office for Florida’ Sixth Congressional District expressing my concerns and seeking answers to the Representative’s understanding of the interventionist activities of the Administration within and around the area of Venezuela; I did not get a response nor did I notice any public statement from the Sixth Congressional District regarding the Administrations actions and seeking input from district constituents regarding the Administration’s activities. This is a sad state of affairs, this is what happens when politicians pick voters as opposed to voters being given the opportunity to select between competing ideas.
Jim says
From NBC News – Trump’s speech to the country (and the world):
“‘We are going to run the country,’ says Trump
The U.S. is “going to run the country,” Trump said of Venezuela at a news conference today, following the U.S. capture of his South American counterpart.
“We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transitions,” he said. “So we don’t want to be involved with having somebody else get in and the same situation that we had for the last long period of years.”
“We’re there now,” he added. “So, we’re going to stay until such time as we’re going to run it essentially until such time as a proper transition can take place.””
Can’t wait to see how this works out. How are we (USA) going to run Venezuela? We have no infrastructure in place in that country. I guess the current government is just going to go along with this…. Apparently Iraq taught us nothing.
And is this not regime change out in the open for the world to see?
Where is our moral standing now?
And I now know why Trump is infatuated with Putin. It’s now okay for bigger countries to take military action against smaller countries if they don’t like what is going on there. No wonder Trump supports Putin’s murderous and illegal war on Ukraine. After all, it’s just business….
Also, Trump did not notify anyone in the Senate or House about this before doing it. So, clearly, the three branches of government are NOT equal (surprise) and the power to declare war no longer lies with Congress.
We have lost our way.
Al says
[Disallowed. Please comply with our comment policy. Thank you.–FL]
JC says
The Venezuelans I know are happy that Maduro is gone from the country. The left-wing/progressives I know keep saying Trump is acting like a madman. The right-wing/conservatives folks I know who don’t want the president to have too much war powers are happy Maduro is gone.
I’m going to listen to the Venezuelans that I know in America who got the hell out of their country when Maduro was running the show and told me horror stories of home. I don’t know any one of them who aren’t happy that Maduro is gone.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
The venezuelans that live here are americans, not venezuelans. Maybe you should consider listening to venezuelans instead.
JC says
I know a hell a lot more Venezuelans than you did, including those who escaped during Maduro rule and told me the horror stories. Please go and call them Americans and let’s see how fast you get booted out of their house. And I know you will most likely not even listen to their stories.
PaulT says
Really?. So theres’s nothing wrong with a bit of 21st Century colonialism?
If the King of Spain could claim exclusive ownership of the entire Caribbean for centuries, why shpuldn’t Trump do the same?,
Pogo says
At least we were saved from genocide Joe
… right?
Steve says
There goes your Peace prize for 2026 Donny.
Skibum says
Not to worry. He might yet conjure up another sports club, or maybe some paid off CEO of a corporate oil company, to make up some fake S. American continent oil peace prize to satisfy his juvenile delinquent fantasies.
Taxpayer says
So, now we just go into another country seize power over the country and kidnap the person in charge and take their oil.
What would we do if another country did that to us?
Laurel says
“Now [U.S. Attorney General] Bondi says there might be a new indictment which also covers Maduro’s wife, who was taken into detention with him.”
“…might be”?
Trump’s incompetents kidnap people and then say “…there might be a new indictment which also covers Maduro’s wife, who was taken into detention with him.”
Maduro is an known bad guy, but kidnapping him, and his wife, without any evidence of Trump’s claims of “narco terrorism,” since Trump made sure there was no evidence left behind, is madness.
Now, not only is Trump a sick bully, we will be seen as a sick bully nation around the world.
Me says
No Peace Prize for Donald.
Robjr says
From the man who claims he deserves a Pulitzer Peace Prize.
What he deserves is the same type of trial that Slobodan Milošević received.
Robjr says
Even though Milosevic did not make it to a trial
Robjr says
Although Slobo didn’t make it to trial. He received his justice in a jail cell.
JW says
If you don’t know history, it repeats itself! By now, most Americans, including our “representatives” in DC, are no longer educated (K-12) or interested in world history. We just want to enjoy sports and entertainment. Our “representatives” are just exploiting us (the voters) to win their “game” to dominate the country and the world. Well, just read more about history, but it may be too late to prevent the greatest nation on earth from becoming the next failure.
Jim H. says
It’s going to be prophetic when Putin pulls this same kidnapping gig in Ukraine, and no one will care.
Wanna take bets on which week in February?
What a world we have created!
Skibum says
I’m more concerned about communist China looking at what drumph did as a green light to invade and take over Taiwan! They have been threatening to do that for eons, conducting war drills right off of Taiwan’s coast, shooting missiles over their sovereign country, and rattling their sabers just drooling at the possibility of such an opportunity.
How is American democracy going to stand up to China with a straight face, warning them not to attempt to invade a sovereign country and take over when our imperial idiot with dollar signs in his eyes and oil oozing out of his tear ducts has just shown China and other dictators of the world that America, of all places, is the 21st century version of British imperialism, taking over other countries for their natural resources? Are we sending our Navy’s ships to stage off the coasts of Greenland next?
BIG Neighbor says
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5oSRcLWxzYA
Pogo says
@BN
Excellent, very worthwhile use of 30 minutes.
Thank you.
Atwp says
If Drunk Trump plans fails, he will blame the Dems and Joe. If his plans succeed he will declare himself as the greatest American Leader of all times. What a crazy poor excuse of a leader. He said he is going to run that country, can’t run the usa. This country is going to charge him but Trump goes free.
Atwp says
If this happens what would what would Drunk Trump supporters do. We interrupt this program. The USA has been attacked, Trump and Vance has been kidnapped by the bombers. If that does happen and I hope it does just to see how this country would react. It would be nice if the bombing country would put Trump on trial for all of the criminal acts he has committed. If that does happen and it probably won’t, I will call in from work and praise God all day. To see Trump go to trial, is a desire I hope come to pass.
BillC says
Trump freed former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who had been convicted in the U.S. of helping smuggle more than 400 tons of cocaine into the U.S. with some of the largest and most violent drug-trafficking organizations in the hemisphere. Hernandez was sentenced to 45 years in prison yet Trump pardoned him after less than a year.
Hey MAGA how do you explain this after what Trump just did in Venezuela?
Skibum says
Distraction, obfuscation, lies to the American people about the convicted felon prez’ true motives and intent. And yet, his maga sheeple will continue to fall onto their knees in worship and adoration of their underlord, uttering a mishmash of incomprehensible maga jibberish in his defense. Exactly what could be expected of a cult.
Laureld says
Maga will explain nothing. Have they done so yet?
Ed P says
Kidnapping? Apprehension? Depends on one’s political beliefs.
Could have Killed him, but instead brought to NYC to face charges of narco terrorism and flooding the U.S. with cocaine.
The Biden Administration increased the original bounty on Maduro to $25 million.
This is just another issue that anyone on the Maduro side of the equation will find themselves on the wrong side once again. Those opposing this action must not want a strong U.S. administration/ country.
Remember, Venezuela also has the world’s largest immigration exodus in the world.
Are all 8 million refugees wrong too? 20-25% of the total population fled the Maduro regime.
Laurel says
No one here is “on the Muduro side,” and no, we don’t want an authoritarian administration. No kings, right? Trump’s administration is the most incompetent, and inexperienced batch of nincompoops we have ever had to tolerate. Are you going to tell me that Hegseth, Bondi, Patel and Noem are competent, intelligent, integrity laden folk, more so than the Four Star Generals Trump fired? Seriously? How about Steven Miller? You like him too? A real humanitarian.
Yes, Muduro is a bad guy, but here, in the U.S., we have a Constitution that Trump completely ignores, and wants to demolish, along with U.S. and world laws, as well. We don’t want that either. We also don’t want to destroy the agreements, that are meant to preserve peace, and prevent nuclear wars, we have worked on since the 1940s.
The world does not want to depend on, and should not depend on, the selfish whims of an unstable man. We don’t need, or want, “a new world order.” Especially, one that is run by a man who displays psychopathic tendencies. It didn’t work in Germany, it didn’t work in Italy, and it didn’t work in many other countries. In fact, we have fought against that sort of regime. No, we don’t want it here.
Foresee says
Rubio explains why congress could not be informed about Venezuela in advance- because they couldn’t be trusted not to leak the information. Wasn’t it Hegseth who used Signal to inform, among others, journalist Jeffery Goldberg, editor in chief of “The Atlantic” wherein Hegseth discussed specific details such as the timing of strikes and types of weapons to be used. This level of detail was classified as “secret/no foreign,” meaning unauthorized disclosure could seriously damage national security. The Pentagon stated that Hegseth’s use of Signal was a violation of policy, as he used a personal device instead of a government phone. Hegseth defended his actions by claiming he was declassifying information as he communicated it.
Ahhh, to hell with the Constitution!
Mike P says
First fact, it was not a kidnapping as your headline reports, Maduro was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice in 2020 on charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, and arrested.
Second fact : Other Presidential Actions Without Prior Congressional Approval, prior to President Trump:
Harry S. Truman: Ordered troops into combat in Korea.
Ronald Reagan: Used force in Grenada, Libya, and Lebanon.
George H.W. Bush: Invaded Panama and deployed troops to the Persian Gulf before a formal AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force).
Bill Clinton: Intervened in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia (airstrikes), and Kosovo (NATO bombing).
George W. Bush: Invaded Afghanistan and Iraq without formal declarations, though Congress later passed AUMFs.
Barack Obama: Authorized airstrikes in Libya and drone strikes in Pakistan.
Joe Biden: Conducted airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
What were the Flagelrlive stories on these??
Skibum says
The former Honduran president was indicted by the U.S. Dept. of Justice after a lengthy criminal investigation into him leading a drug cartel in that country. He was arrested and hauled before a federal court, convicted by a jury and sentenced to 45 years in prison for his involvement in the trafficking of approx. 400 tons of illegal drugs into the U.S. And yet, the convicted felon in the WH has issued him a complete and total pardon for his drug crimes, because he apparently was treated so unfairly, as the convict in the WH loves to say when he grants very inappropriate pardons.
Just wait until Maduro goes to court on his alleged drug crimes. Don’t you think it is likely that drumph’s pardon of the Honduran ex-president will complicate the prosecution of Maduro now that a presidential pardon is on the official record showing the convicted felon in the WH’s disdain for our American system of justice in prosecuting and imprisoning drug traffickers? He only wants those he disagrees with in prison, and his cronies to walk free after committing the same type of crimes. How is that in any sense of the word “justice”???
Laurel says
Mike P: So, Maduro’s wife was what, *escorted* against her will, and we’ll come up with some sort of indictment later? It’s not about drugs. It’s about oil, minerals, money and power. Over and over, it has been repeatedly explained how little Trump cares about drug trafficking (or sex trafficking of children, either). He also doesn’t care about Hispanic people, but right now, a little of their support will help. He’ll get them later, too. Trump escorts people here, escorts people there…
Mothersworry says
WTF!!! Haven’t any of these clowns learned a thing over the years?? Now this fool who claimed no more nation building is now into it. He’s not afraid to put boots on the ground? Let him take his fat feet and the rest of this cadre of clowns he surround himself with, put their boots on and romp around down there. I’m sure Hegseth with his warrior bs will lead them. All I see is another Viet Nam. That country is nothing but triple canopy jungle once you move inland. Get wounded in that jungle there is no way for an extraction. A wounded person will have to be carried out and probably will die before reaching medical aid.
Maybe all these red hat wearing folks that like to march around carrying guns playing tough guy will volunteer for combat to help the orange fool that got this country into this mess.
Pogo says
@Typical The Conversation polemics
… sweaty heat and fumes of sulfur; for a drum circle of fellow travelers.
And still
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=5oSRcLWxzYA
Will anyone be allowed to read this? Very doubtful.
EC: File
Sherry says
* Masked thugs assaulting citizens
* Protesters pepper sprayed
* Heavily armed military taking over sections of cities
* President’s crime family raking in “Billions”
* Crimes of fraud and sexual assault swept under the rug
* Attempted election stealing and insurrection
* Suppression of the free press
* Prosecution of political enemies
* Pardoning violent criminals and drug dealers
Absolutely that corrupt criminal should be captured, arrested and sent to prison!
BTW . . . Maduro has done some bad things also!
The Slime says
I am waiting to hear what the Danko/Mullins duo has to say about this! They worship at the feet of Trump.