The campaign for Florida Democrat David Jolly said Wednesday that a new public opinion poll it has commissioned shows the former GOP congressman in a statistical dead heat with both Byron Donalds and Paul Renner, the two major Republicans to enter the contest for governor in 2026.
Jolly leads Donalds, the Southwest Florida U.S. representative endorsed by Donald Trump, 41%-40%, with 19% undecided.
Renner leads Jolly, 42%-40%, with 18% undecided.
“This is more than just a number,” Jolly said in a post on X. “It’s a sign that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike have had enough of the chaos. It’s a sign that Floridians are ready for something better.”
The survey of 631 registered Florida voters was conducted by the Miami polling firm of Bendixen & Amandi International, with a margin for error of +/- 4.0%.
With the general election more than 13 months away, the survey revealed that a large portion of the electorate isn’t aware of who any of these candidates are.
Donalds does best in name recognition, with 50% saying they don’t know who he is. Renner is unknown to 57% of the public, while 62% said they didn’t know who Jolly is.
The survey also shows that 48% oppose a mid-decade redistricting of Florida’s congressional districts map, with 41% in support. Banning vaccine mandates is also a loser, with 60% opposing and just 37% supporting.
In a breakdown of the poll results, Bendixen & Amandi says that 43% of those who responded to the survey were Republicans, 34% Democrats, and 23% registered as non-party-affiliated (NPA) or with a third political party. That’s close to the political breakdown of the state by party registration, which now has Republicans with a 10-point lead over Democrats statewide.
A poll conducted by Victory Insights in June showed Donalds leading Jolly, 37%-31%, with 31% undecided.
–Mitch Perry, Florida Phoenix
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