• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
MENUMENU
MENUMENU
  • Home
  • About
    • Contact Us
    • FlaglerLive Board of Directors
    • Comment Policy
    • Mission Statement
    • Our Values
    • Privacy Policy
  • Live Calendar
  • Submit Obituary
  • Submit an Event
  • Support FlaglerLive
  • Advertise on FlaglerLive (386) 503-3808
  • Search Results

FlaglerLive

No Bull, no Fluff, No Smudges

MENUMENU
  • Flagler
    • Flagler County Commission
    • Beverly Beach
    • Economic Development Council
    • Flagler History
    • Mondex/Daytona North
    • The Hammock
    • Tourist Development Council
  • Palm Coast
    • Palm Coast City Council
    • Palm Coast Crime
  • Bunnell
    • Bunnell City Commission
    • Bunnell Crime
  • Flagler Beach
    • Flagler Beach City Commission
    • Flagler Beach Crime
  • Cops/Courts
    • Circuit & County Court
    • Florida Supreme Court
    • Federal Courts
    • Flagler 911
    • Fire House
    • Flagler County Sheriff
    • Flagler Jail Bookings
    • Traffic Accidents
  • Rights & Liberties
    • Fourth Amendment
    • First Amendment
    • Privacy
    • Second Amendment
    • Seventh Amendment
    • Sixth Amendment
    • Sunshine Law
    • Third Amendment
    • Religion & Beliefs
    • Human Rights
    • Immigration
    • Labor Rights
    • 14th Amendment
    • Civil Rights
  • Schools
    • Adult Education
    • Belle Terre Elementary
    • Buddy Taylor Middle
    • Bunnell Elementary
    • Charter Schools
    • Daytona State College
    • Flagler County School Board
    • Flagler Palm Coast High School
    • Higher Education
    • Imagine School
    • Indian Trails Middle
    • Matanzas High School
    • Old Kings Elementary
    • Rymfire Elementary
    • Stetson University
    • Wadsworth Elementary
    • University of Florida/Florida State
  • Economy
    • Jobs & Unemployment
    • Business & Economy
    • Development & Sprawl
    • Leisure & Tourism
    • Local Business
    • Local Media
    • Real Estate & Development
    • Taxes
  • Commentary
    • The Conversation
    • Pierre Tristam
    • Diane Roberts
    • Guest Columns
    • Byblos
    • Editor's Blog
  • Culture
    • African American Cultural Society
    • Arts in Palm Coast & Flagler
    • Books
    • City Repertory Theatre
    • Flagler Auditorium
    • Flagler Playhouse
    • Flagler Youth Orchestra
    • Jacksonville Symphony Orchestra
    • Palm Coast Arts Foundation
    • Special Events
  • Elections 2024
    • Amendments and Referendums
    • Presidential Election
    • Campaign Finance
    • City Elections
    • Congressional
    • Constitutionals
    • Courts
    • Governor
    • Polls
    • Voting Rights
  • Florida
    • Federal Politics
    • Florida History
    • Florida Legislature
    • Florida Legislature
    • Ron DeSantis
  • Health & Society
    • Flagler County Health Department
    • Ask the Doctor Column
    • Health Care
    • Health Care Business
    • Covid-19
    • Children and Families
    • Medicaid and Medicare
    • Mental Health
    • Poverty
    • Violence
  • All Else
    • Daily Briefing
    • Americana
    • Obituaries
    • News Briefs
    • Weather and Climate
    • Wildlife

Hurricane Forecast Ramps Up, Adding 2 Named Storms for Total of 25 as Beryl Is Termed ‘Harbinger’

July 9, 2024 | FlaglerLive | 8 Comments

A palm tree at the south end of Flagler County teeters on the edge of a vanished dune, three-quarters of its roots exposed, ready to tumble. The tree symbolizes the consequences of Tropical Storm Nicole on Flagler County's coast, where A1A, homes and the county's tourism economy are similarly teetering. (© FlaglerLive)
A palm tree at the south end of Flagler County teetered on the edge of a vanished dune, three-quarters of its roots exposed, ready to tumble two years ago. That portion of the sands are now being reinforced with a seawall under construction, but the ocean’s record warmth is powering what may be a record storm season. (© FlaglerLive)

A day after deadly Hurricane Beryl pounded Texas, experts at Colorado State University on Tuesday increased their storm forecast for what was already expected to be an above-average hurricane season.

The university’s Department of Atmospheric Science added two named storms and a major hurricane to its outlook for the 2024 season, which started June 1 and will run through November.




The department said it needed to “slightly” increase projections because of near-record warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters and a lack of strong vertical wind shear that helps temper hurricane development. Warm waters fuel hurricanes.

“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the department said in an online post.

The department also described Hurricane Beryl as “a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.” While Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm, it earlier set a record by becoming the earliest Category 5 storm in a calendar year as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico.

Including Beryl and short-lived tropical storms Alberto and Chris, the department’s forecast now calls for 25 named storms this season, up from 23 when the first forecast was released in April.

Chris made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico, shortly after reaching tropical-storm strength on June 30. Alberto affected parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico in mid-June.

The university department’s new forecast includes 12 hurricanes, up from the initial estimate of 11. Also, six hurricanes, instead of the initially forecast five, are projected to reach Category 3 or higher status to qualify as major systems.

Expressing “above-normal confidence” in its projections, the department said it continues to anticipate a “well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

But with more than one-sixth of the storm season finished, the projection of a U.S. landfall has dipped slightly, from 62 percent when the outlook was first released in April to 57 percent, according to the department.

Most years, the average is 43 percent.




The landfall projection for the U.S. coastline that includes parts of Florida south and east of Cedar Key is now at 31 percent, down from the earlier 34 percent. Since 1880, the yearly average is 21 percent.

Colorado State isn’t alone in predicting a highly active hurricane season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast up to 25 named storms, with as many as 13 reaching hurricane strength and four to seven packing Category 3 or stronger winds.

Experts at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Arts & Sciences, meanwhile, forecast an eye-opening 33 named storms.

The 2023 season was the fourth most-active on record with 20 named storms, including seven that reached hurricane strength and three major storms.

By comparison, seasons from 1991 to 2020 averaged 14.4 storms a year, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane strength.

–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida

Support FlaglerLive's End of Year Fundraiser
Thank you readers for getting us to--and past--our year-end fund-raising goal yet again. It’s a bracing way to mark our 15th year at FlaglerLive. Our donors are just a fraction of the 25,000 readers who seek us out for the best-reported, most timely, trustworthy, and independent local news site anywhere, without paywall. FlaglerLive is free. Fighting misinformation and keeping democracy in the sunshine 365/7/24 isn’t free. Take a brief moment, become a champion of fearless, enlightening journalism. Any amount helps. We’re a 501(c)(3) non-profit news organization. Donations are tax deductible.  
You may donate openly or anonymously.
We like Zeffy (no fees), but if you prefer to use PayPal, click here.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Watcher says

    July 9, 2024 at 2:14 pm

    Hurricane experts in Colorado? Give me a break with all the fear porn. We have enough to fear with our captured Government.

  2. JimboXYZ says

    July 9, 2024 at 6:20 pm

    As Beryl set all kinds of records over open waters, we also need to pinch ourselves and realize that anything USA it was nothing more than a typical June/July Cat 1 hurricane that Galveston/Houston has been thru before. Just as FL & LA, AL & MS, NC/SC as well. The usual Caribbean Islands, PR, Haiti/Dominican Republic, Jamaica & Cuba, even landfall Central America of the Honduras, Gautemala have experienced similar storms over past hurricane seasons. I don’t like to downplay a Cat 5/6 strom, because it was that, but it was also over open waters & as it strengthened to that, it also weakened as it sped across the Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico at 18-22 mph. Like most all hurricane seasons, the early storms stay low, skirting under PR => Cuba before anything NW/N puts FL => TX into play. When one has lived in FL since the 1950’s & 60’s, some seasons are better & worse than others. And the storms, I don’t think they’re any worse than they ever were. Hear me out, technology has gotten better, so they take more readings & measures, there are more data points. The destruction is what it is, construction supposedly has improved survivability , but at a cost. Every storm that ever se a record from the previous for dollar damages, how much of that is inflation ? Inflation being that man made variable to make the same physical property damage cost more. A roof that gets take off is the same sq ft of materials it’s always been whether it was Katrina 2005 or Beryl 2024. Katrina was a $ 125 billion damage Cat 5 for 2005 dollars. In terms of 2022 dollars that’s $ 186.3 billion according to Wikipedia. Same damage inflated for effect. If a shingle gets blown off the roof, it’s still a shingle, what it costs at any given point in time is a man made figure for a corporate profit when the roof went on the house. We’re looking at Bidenomics for growth & even just repairing nature’s damages for the status quo. Gotta do what you gotta do when a natural disaster happens, but it shouldn’t be unaffordable Biden-Harris housing costs. Too early to say what Beryl cost, but wiki has it greater than $ 6Billion so far. And then also realize Beryl was a Cat 5 that really was only a Cat 1.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beryl

  3. Pogo says

    July 9, 2024 at 7:20 pm

    @FOX says

    The history of the pioneers behind the Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
    CSU has been issuing forecasts for nearly 40 years
    https://www.foxweather.com/learn/history-colorado-state-university-atlantic-hurricane-forecast

  4. Time Will Tell says

    July 10, 2024 at 6:28 am

    FYI, the University of Colorado at Boulder is ranked in the top 20 nationally for meteorology majors. Colorado State University has at atmospheric research facility that is well respected, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research is located in Colorado. So, yes, people in Colorado don’t have to live in Palm Coast to understand hurricane patterns and development.

    There is no fear porn here, just the typical science geeks who are often accurate, but people like you with their reality blinders on don’t listen to the scientists, and then cry for help when they aren’t prepared.

  5. dave says

    July 10, 2024 at 7:44 am

    The group in Colorado have been doing this for 35 years. Nothing new. The team’s seasonal forecast couldn’t have predicted the destruction of a Hurricane because it doesn’t focus on where or when specific storms will happen. Instead, the forecast focuses on overall activity for the hurricane season. According to reports, they are accurate 60% of the time. But I’ll stick with the NHC.

  6. Lynne says

    July 10, 2024 at 2:12 pm

    One of the islands in the Caribbean hit by Beryl suffered destruction or damage to 98% of its buildings, and another has been calculated at 90%. To those people, this was more disaster than anything previous, granted that Beryl was “only” cat 4 when it went over. The difference between cat 4 and cat 5 is negligible to someone who lives through such a storm. So let’s not trivialize their suffering just because they are not part of the US.

  7. Callmeishmael says

    July 10, 2024 at 8:20 pm

    You know, I don’t think I’ve ever read one of your posts without invoking your Biden-Harris diatribe. Do you blame your bunions on them, too?

    Sure, there is inflation. There’s been inflation since I was a child generations ago. Even since you were a child, I’ll bet.

    But what you leave out of your “analysis” is the fact that there have been millions of new rooftops built in Florida over the years. More density means more damage and repairs after a storm. More demand for these repairs means higher prices. Don’t think for a minute that the explosive growth and higher densities in this state have nothing to do with higher construction/housing costs or our state’s current insurance crisis.

  8. FlaPharmTech says

    July 11, 2024 at 8:50 pm

    You are wise. Thank you.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

  • Conner Bosch law attorneys lawyers offices palm coast flagler county
  • grand living realty
  • politis matovina attorneys for justice personal injury law auto truck accidents

Primary Sidebar

  • grand living realty
  • politis matovina attorneys for justice personal injury law auto truck accidents

Recent Comments

  • Jim on The Daily Cartoon and Live Briefing: Wednesday, June 4, 2025
  • Jim on Palm Coast Council Approves Hiring of Sheriff’s Chief Strobridge on 4-1 Vote; Staly Addresses Risks
  • Bobsea on County Kills Half-Cent Sales Tax for Beaches as It Seeks Mystery ‘Alternatives’ to Save 18 Miles of Shoreline
  • Gary on Palm Coast Council Approves Hiring of Sheriff’s Chief Strobridge on 4-1 Vote; Staly Addresses Risks
  • James on Mark Strobridge, Sheriff’s Chief of Staff, Set to Be Assistant City Manager in Palm Coast for 3 Months
  • Michael J Cocchiola on Led by Paul Renner, Board of Governors Rejects Ono’s Appointment as President of UF Over Past Views on DEI
  • Tjmelton on Palm Coast Council Approves 36% Water and Sewer Rate Increase by 2027 to Finance $455 Million Infrastructure Loan
  • Jim on Led by Paul Renner, Board of Governors Rejects Ono’s Appointment as President of UF Over Past Views on DEI
  • Engin Ruslpostur on Led by Paul Renner, Board of Governors Rejects Ono’s Appointment as President of UF Over Past Views on DEI
  • Pogo on Led by Paul Renner, Board of Governors Rejects Ono’s Appointment as President of UF Over Past Views on DEI
  • Vincent A. Liguori on Only 6 Apply to Serve on Palm Coast’s Charter Review Committee So Far, 2 Weeks Ahead of Deadline
  • Darlene Shelley on Mark Strobridge, Sheriff’s Chief of Staff, Set to Be Assistant City Manager in Palm Coast for 3 Months
  • just wait for it on County Kills Half-Cent Sales Tax for Beaches as It Seeks Mystery ‘Alternatives’ to Save 18 Miles of Shoreline
  • Mischa Gee on Palm Coast Council Approves 36% Water and Sewer Rate Increase by 2027 to Finance $455 Million Infrastructure Loan
  • Diane Cline on Flagler County Will Buy 5.2-Acre Parcel on Intracoastal North of Hammock Dune Bridge for Preservation as Parkland
  • Pogo on Only 6 Apply to Serve on Palm Coast’s Charter Review Committee So Far, 2 Weeks Ahead of Deadline

Log in