A day after deadly Hurricane Beryl pounded Texas, experts at Colorado State University on Tuesday increased their storm forecast for what was already expected to be an above-average hurricane season.
The university’s Department of Atmospheric Science added two named storms and a major hurricane to its outlook for the 2024 season, which started June 1 and will run through November.
The department said it needed to “slightly” increase projections because of near-record warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters and a lack of strong vertical wind shear that helps temper hurricane development. Warm waters fuel hurricanes.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the department said in an online post.
The department also described Hurricane Beryl as “a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.” While Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm, it earlier set a record by becoming the earliest Category 5 storm in a calendar year as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico.
Including Beryl and short-lived tropical storms Alberto and Chris, the department’s forecast now calls for 25 named storms this season, up from 23 when the first forecast was released in April.
Chris made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico, shortly after reaching tropical-storm strength on June 30. Alberto affected parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico in mid-June.
The university department’s new forecast includes 12 hurricanes, up from the initial estimate of 11. Also, six hurricanes, instead of the initially forecast five, are projected to reach Category 3 or higher status to qualify as major systems.
Expressing “above-normal confidence” in its projections, the department said it continues to anticipate a “well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
But with more than one-sixth of the storm season finished, the projection of a U.S. landfall has dipped slightly, from 62 percent when the outlook was first released in April to 57 percent, according to the department.
Most years, the average is 43 percent.
The landfall projection for the U.S. coastline that includes parts of Florida south and east of Cedar Key is now at 31 percent, down from the earlier 34 percent. Since 1880, the yearly average is 21 percent.
Colorado State isn’t alone in predicting a highly active hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast up to 25 named storms, with as many as 13 reaching hurricane strength and four to seven packing Category 3 or stronger winds.
Experts at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Arts & Sciences, meanwhile, forecast an eye-opening 33 named storms.
The 2023 season was the fourth most-active on record with 20 named storms, including seven that reached hurricane strength and three major storms.
By comparison, seasons from 1991 to 2020 averaged 14.4 storms a year, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane strength.
–Jim Turner, News Service of Florida
Watcher says
Hurricane experts in Colorado? Give me a break with all the fear porn. We have enough to fear with our captured Government.
Time Will Tell says
FYI, the University of Colorado at Boulder is ranked in the top 20 nationally for meteorology majors. Colorado State University has at atmospheric research facility that is well respected, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research is located in Colorado. So, yes, people in Colorado don’t have to live in Palm Coast to understand hurricane patterns and development.
There is no fear porn here, just the typical science geeks who are often accurate, but people like you with their reality blinders on don’t listen to the scientists, and then cry for help when they aren’t prepared.
FlaPharmTech says
You are wise. Thank you.
JimboXYZ says
As Beryl set all kinds of records over open waters, we also need to pinch ourselves and realize that anything USA it was nothing more than a typical June/July Cat 1 hurricane that Galveston/Houston has been thru before. Just as FL & LA, AL & MS, NC/SC as well. The usual Caribbean Islands, PR, Haiti/Dominican Republic, Jamaica & Cuba, even landfall Central America of the Honduras, Gautemala have experienced similar storms over past hurricane seasons. I don’t like to downplay a Cat 5/6 strom, because it was that, but it was also over open waters & as it strengthened to that, it also weakened as it sped across the Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico at 18-22 mph. Like most all hurricane seasons, the early storms stay low, skirting under PR => Cuba before anything NW/N puts FL => TX into play. When one has lived in FL since the 1950’s & 60’s, some seasons are better & worse than others. And the storms, I don’t think they’re any worse than they ever were. Hear me out, technology has gotten better, so they take more readings & measures, there are more data points. The destruction is what it is, construction supposedly has improved survivability , but at a cost. Every storm that ever se a record from the previous for dollar damages, how much of that is inflation ? Inflation being that man made variable to make the same physical property damage cost more. A roof that gets take off is the same sq ft of materials it’s always been whether it was Katrina 2005 or Beryl 2024. Katrina was a $ 125 billion damage Cat 5 for 2005 dollars. In terms of 2022 dollars that’s $ 186.3 billion according to Wikipedia. Same damage inflated for effect. If a shingle gets blown off the roof, it’s still a shingle, what it costs at any given point in time is a man made figure for a corporate profit when the roof went on the house. We’re looking at Bidenomics for growth & even just repairing nature’s damages for the status quo. Gotta do what you gotta do when a natural disaster happens, but it shouldn’t be unaffordable Biden-Harris housing costs. Too early to say what Beryl cost, but wiki has it greater than $ 6Billion so far. And then also realize Beryl was a Cat 5 that really was only a Cat 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beryl
Lynne says
One of the islands in the Caribbean hit by Beryl suffered destruction or damage to 98% of its buildings, and another has been calculated at 90%. To those people, this was more disaster than anything previous, granted that Beryl was “only” cat 4 when it went over. The difference between cat 4 and cat 5 is negligible to someone who lives through such a storm. So let’s not trivialize their suffering just because they are not part of the US.
Callmeishmael says
You know, I don’t think I’ve ever read one of your posts without invoking your Biden-Harris diatribe. Do you blame your bunions on them, too?
Sure, there is inflation. There’s been inflation since I was a child generations ago. Even since you were a child, I’ll bet.
But what you leave out of your “analysis” is the fact that there have been millions of new rooftops built in Florida over the years. More density means more damage and repairs after a storm. More demand for these repairs means higher prices. Don’t think for a minute that the explosive growth and higher densities in this state have nothing to do with higher construction/housing costs or our state’s current insurance crisis.
Pogo says
@FOX says
The history of the pioneers behind the Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
CSU has been issuing forecasts for nearly 40 years
https://www.foxweather.com/learn/history-colorado-state-university-atlantic-hurricane-forecast
dave says
The group in Colorado have been doing this for 35 years. Nothing new. The team’s seasonal forecast couldn’t have predicted the destruction of a Hurricane because it doesn’t focus on where or when specific storms will happen. Instead, the forecast focuses on overall activity for the hurricane season. According to reports, they are accurate 60% of the time. But I’ll stick with the NHC.