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Not So Good For Jeb: Hillary Would Tie Him in Florida, Easily Beat Him in Other Swings

| February 3, 2015

And they're off. (DonkeyHotey)

And they’re off. (DonkeyHotey)

In light years, the 2016 election is still a little less than half way between the Alpha Centauri star system and Earth. But polls and prognostications, twin tortures of American elections, began last year even before Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton had declared for the presidency. A Quinnipiac University poll in January 2014 had Clinton trouncing either Bush or Marco Rubio in their home ground of Florida.

Bush and Clinton have not yet made their run formal. But Quinnipiac today released the first of what will be a long series of swing-state polls ahead of the 2016 election. For Bush, it’s not as bad as last January: he is no longer losing Florida. But he’s not winning it, either. Clinton and Bush are in a statistical tie, with Clinton ahead 44-43. That’s an improvement over last year, when she beat Bush 49-43 percent. Clinton still beats Rubio 49-39 in a theoretical match-up in Florida.

A slightly brighter spot for Bush: he would win Florida’s Independent vote, 40-36, and would win men voters 45-37. Clinton has a decided advantage among women voters, 50-41, which may prove difficult to overcome when combined with minority and younger voters, as Bush is far less likely to make inroads among either groups.

But Clinton beats Bush by a wide margin in Ohio, 47-36, and by an even bigger margin in Pennsylvania, 50-35, where New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie fares better than Bush against Clinton, but still gets below 40 percent. Clinton’s numbers are even bigger if her opponents were to be either Mike Huckabee, the evangelical conservative, or Rand Paul, the libertarian.

Clinton also beats Bush, Rubio and Bush in favorability in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania: she garners 53, 51 and 55 percent favorability in the respective states, well ahead of Bush, who gets 46 percent in Florida, 26 percent in Ohio and 30 percent in Pennsylvania. Christie’s likability is fading: it’s 28 percent in Florida (well below even Rick Scott’s likability), 25 percent in Ohio and 36 percent in Pennsylvania, which shares a long border with New Jersey. Christie’s approval rating in New Jersey proper is at 48 percent, a three-year low.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are critical swing states in any modern presidential election. A candidate can win the election without winning all three, but since 1960, when John Kennedy won despite losing Florida and Ohio to Richard Nixon, no candidate has won the presidency by losing more than one of the three. (In 1960, Florida had just 10 electoral votes. It now has 29.)

The poll also looked at a Clinton contest against Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

“There is a reason why Hillary Clinton has followed a slower, less aggressive schedule when it comes to ramping up her expected presidential campaign than have virtually all of her potential White House opponents,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said. “She holds double-digit leads over all her potential GOP opponents in the three biggest swing states, except for two Native Sons, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. And she is under little pressure from within her own party to hit the campaign trail.”

“Although history suggests that once she becomes a full-fledge candidate and part of the nastiness that comes with politics these days those numbers may drop some. She begins the campaign in very strong shape with voters and not just Democrats. In the three big swing states she is getting 86 to 93 percent of Democrats, 36 to 54 percent of independent voters and even up to 15 percent of Republicans. Because Mrs. Clinton would be the first woman major party presidential nominee, she probably gets an extra boost among women, who tend Democratic.”

Women are the key to the Democrat’s dominance over Republican contenders. She leads among women by margins of 9 to 31 percentage points. Men are more evenly divided. Clinton’s biggest deficits with men are 8 percentage points against Bush in Florida and 9 points against Kasich in Ohio.

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16 Responses for “Not So Good For Jeb: Hillary Would Tie Him in Florida, Easily Beat Him in Other Swings”

  1. m&m says:

    Clinton is an EVIL an person who has allowed U.S. workers to get killed.

  2. Waldo says:

    Cankles will never become president. She’s too—DESTRUCTIVE. How many have died on the Clinton watch mysteriously ?….Oh about 43 so far !!! Even her old bosses in the Law Firms called her a huge liar and dangerously back stabbing !!!!

  3. Sherry Epley says:

    GO HILLARY GO! Elizabeth Warren for VP too! I’m ready for women to be elected! We simply can’t do any worse than the old guys have done all these years!

  4. Merrill Shapiro says:

    The only hope for JEB is that a virulent epidemic of amnesia spread across the country and we all forget what his brother did to the US and the Middle East, not to mention his father’s crushing our economy!

  5. confidential says:

    Could not agree more Mr. Shapiro! Looks at the Bush mess in Iraq and allover that area now and our economy never recovered after Bush…keeps on tanking for the middle class only while the wealthy get wealthier!

  6. Sherry Epley says:

    Right On Merrill! The trouble is that so many voters are FOX zombies. . . they will vote for anyone Rupert Murdoch, and the Koch brothers tell them to. . . regardless.

    OK, so Hillary is “mature”. . . she can certainly do no worse than what the “mature” men have done to our country!

  7. Lin says:

    When Scott walker is thrown into the mix, the latest poll shows he is on top in the GOP not Bush

    Bush (who is NOT my candidate by any means)should not be given credit or blame for what 43 and 41 have done. Neither should Hillary be given credit or blame for Bill.

    It should be best person for the job — seemingly a foreign concept to the Clinton dynasty (as with Bush)
    I don’t want a woman just to have a woman Pres if it is that woman
    What has she done for our country? Nothing
    What did she do to further our relationships as secy of state — they got worse
    Benghazi — ” what difference does it make?” Lots of difference to me that those men died & she participated in that spectacle afterwards
    So many reasons

    I’m so tired of being called a zombie because my logic is different from the progressives
    Should I blame MSNBC or he of the tingle up the leg version of “journalism” and put down those who watch?
    I’d rather have a discussion of specific issues of differences in policy without the insults
    Speaking of Koch and contributions, democrat fundraisers are legion
    That’s what held our president’s attention the night of Benghazi
    It’s not the good guys vs the bad guys
    I say we are more alike than different in politics too
    Not a complement to either party
    Let’s not start campaign rhetoric with the same old talking points about fox and republicans in general or this discussion will get tired fast

  8. Lancer says:

    Hillary Clinton is a horrible person and candidate. She and Cheney should be thrown into a steel room to fight to the death. She has zero accomplishments and no merit. Her stint as a Senator was uneventful. Her stint at the Sec of State was an unmitigated disaster.

    She’ll be promoted and, more than likely, elected based on her last name and the media manipulation of this country. She shouldn’t run, but the “first woman president” historical significance is prevailing.

    Jeb Bush will be the GOP establishment candidate. He isn’t electable, nor should he even run. This is a power play by an old established political family.

    The one telling thing about our next election? Whomever is elected our next president will be a marketable improvement over the complete failure and abysmal leadership we currently have in place.

  9. Sherry Epley says:

    OK let’s pull in some actual facts on political influence and fund raising. . . this from ABC News:

    Nearly half — 48 percent — of Obama’s $118 million haul in 2011 came from individuals giving $200 or less, according to a new analysis by the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan group.

    Small-donors made up only 9 percent of the 2011 fundraising total for Mitt Romney.
    But it’s on the other end of the donor spectrum that Romney holds more sway: He gathered 82 percent of his funds from donors giving $1,000 or more, the Campaign Finance Institute found. Those high-dollar donors comprise just 28 percent of Obama’s total.

    Also, please note that the Koch brothers were responsible for contributions exceeding 300 million to the Romney campaign. Huuuuummmm. . . . I wonder what kind of influence that kind of money buys?

  10. Lin says:

    “Political spending by unions far exceeds direct contributions”
    Wall Street journal 2012
    I don’t know how to add the link but Google where do democrats donations come from if you are interested.

    Do you not think that Obama is beholding to the public unions or the Morgan clan of attorneys or the other Democrat pacs? The populist theme of Obama’s donations makes it sound like the rich didn’t get richer under Obama lol

    The Koch brothers are rich & supported their guy
    THEY all do it
    WE can do it but I’m not rich
    Either it is ok for no one or ok for everyone

  11. Lin says:

    One more thing
    Do you really think it is in the control of the union members individually who they contribute to? NOT

  12. downinthelab says:

    A N Y O N E

    E L S E !!

  13. Sherry Epley says:

    A good read and detailed analysis, which includes Super PAC figures, shows the Koch brothers spent more than the top 10 unions combined!

    Surely, the top ten unions represent just a few more Americans than the 2, “TWO” oil billionaire Koch brothers!

    Yeah. . . the Citizens United decision made the bribery of elected officials legal. . . but that doesn’t make it right!

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