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Florida’s Hispanics Like Obama Over Romney By Big Margin, Dimming Rubio’s VP Appeal

| June 27, 2012

Obama at the NALEO Conference in Orlando last week. (White House)

President Barack Obama is maintaining a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, fueled by a big lead among Hispanic voters, who prefer Obama over Romney by a 56 to 32 percent.

The lead is surprising on two counts: Florida’s Hispanics have traditionally voted Republican. And talk of a Romney-Rubio ticket, floated by the Romney camp to test that possibility, was calculated to swing the state’s big Hispanic population Romney’s way–a swing that would theoretically affect November’s outcome in the fierce contest for Florida’s 29 electoral votes. A very substantial Obama lead among Latino voters would make Marco Rubio’s effect on a Romney ticket less appealing.

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The poll released Wednesday takes into account Obama’s declaration on June 15 that younger undocumented immigrants will no longer be deported. Latinos reacted enthusiastically to the new policy. In Florida, Hispanics supported the initiative by 58 to 33 percent, while 46 percent (against 40 percent) said Obama would do a better job on immigration, overall, than Romney would. The results of the poll also take into account Romney’s talk on immigration in Orlando last week. That announcement did not have one overriding policy proposal, and was more notable for Romney’s more conciliatory tone on immigration than it had been during the primary season, when he repeatedly suggested that undocumented immigrants should “self-deport.”

The latest Quinnipiac poll is part of a trio released this morning, focusing on swing states. Obama’s lead in Ohio is now 47-38, an improvement over a March poll that had Obama leading Romney 47-40 (at the time Rick Santorum was still in the race). Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania is 45-39, also an improvement over March’s 45-42.

It would be almost impossible for Romney to win the election without winning Florida, though it is easier for Obama to win if he doesn’t hold Florida–as long as he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election.”

Brown added: “The president’s overall margin is built on his big lead among women, younger voters and African-Americans. In Florida, on the heels of the president’s order that will prevent the deportation of some younger illegal immigrants, he holds a big lead among Hispanic voters. The horse race numbers reflect the general view of voters that they like the president better. Obama has a net favorable view among Ohio voters and he is viewed evenly by those in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Romney’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is negative in all three states.”

In Florida, Romney still leads 50-35 percent among white voters. Obama leads 85-6 percent among black voters. The president had a 47-40 percent lead among women, with men evenly split. But another darkening prospect for Romney–and a brightening one for Obama–is the recent surge in independent support for Obama, who now holds a 44-37 percent lead in that category.

Last week’s Florida poll story is below.

Seesawing Continues as Obama Retakes Florida Lead; Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble

June 21–Florida is turning into a microcosm of President Obama’s fortunes as he counts the days (138 of them, to be precise) until Nov. 6: he’s up one day, down the next, but neither surging nor plummeting. The latest Quinnipiac University poll, released this morning, has Obama in a favorable 10-point switch over Mitt Romney. Obama erased a six-point deficit in the last poll, when he was trailing 41-47, in late May. He’s taken a four-point lead, 46-42, thanks in large part to independent voters. In late NMarch, Obama was ahead by seven points.

The deciding factor is key: whoever controls independents in Florida will win in November, as Democrats and Republicans have, by overwhelming margins, already made up their mind. The number of registered independents is surging in Florida, well ahead of Democrats (who have the overall plurality) and Republicans. The latest poll was conducted between June 12 and June 18, so it doesn’t entirely reflect reactions to Obama’s executive order ending the deportation of young, undocumented immigrants. He made that announcement on June 15. More tellingly: it comes after the June unemployment report, which was a significant disappointment as job creation hit its lowest figures in a year and unemployment inched up again.

Also notable: the last poll, when Obama was behind, was taken just after the president’s clumsy declaration of support for gay marriage, which did him no favor in a state notorious for its homophobic tendencies. The effects from that announcement appear to have evaporated.

Trend-wise, the news is less reassuring for Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida’s last remaining statewide elected Democrat. Nelson, hoping to win his second re-election, is running ahead of Republican Connie Mack IV by just four points, 43-39. It’s the same margin as Obama’s, but the trend and nature of the race is very different: an incumbent senator in the state would normally have a more comfortable lead. Nelson has yet to manage one. In May, Mack had a one-point lead. Mack hasn’t won the Republican primary yet, but he might as well have: he wins 41 percent favorability from those polled. His opponents, including Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux, Tea Party favorite Mike McCalister and U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon, each are in the single digits.

“At this point, the Republican Senate nomination is Congressman Connie Mack’s to lose,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In politics, anything is possible and we still have two months to go until the Senate primary, but it would take a major change in public opinion for one of the other candidates to stop Connie Mack. And the projected November election between U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Mack looks like it could go down to the wire.”

Nelson isn’t quite in the dog house: voters give him an anemic 47-32 percent job approval rating. Just 46 percent say he deserves another term. Mack has a 34-22 percent favorability rating, with 42 percent saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. (Here’s a hint, from a Mack posting on his Facebook page: “I’m proud to receive the endorsement of Attorney General Pam Bondi, who is working hard to repeal ObamaCare! Thank you, Pam!”) Nelson took over the seat Mack’s father, also called Connie, vacated when he retired in 2000.

In the presidential race, Obama’s lead reflects the coalition that elected him four years ago, Quinnipac numbers show. He carries women 49-39 percent, African-Americans 91-5 percent and voters 18 to 34 years old, another key demographic–if those voters actually turn up at the poll, as they did in big numbers in 2008–55-28 percent. Obama also leads 48-41 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old. Romney carries white voters 50 – 37 percent and voters over 55 years old 48-43 percent in a state where the elderly vote, often synonymous with tea party and other right-wing elements, have a dominant voice.

But it’s among independents that the shift is most pronounced. On May 23, independents were favoring Romney 44-36 percent. It’s now 46-37 for Obama. Obama also carries Democrats 88-4 percent (no surprise), while Romney takes Republicans 91-5 percent.

Floridians still give Romney the edge 48-44 percent on the economy yet split 45-45 on who would create more jobs, a curious dichotomy that suggests skepticism about Romney’s own jobs record: television ads have been running in Florida markets pointing out Romney’s dismal job-creation record when he was governor of Massachusetts for one term (2003-07). And voters believe Obama would do more “to advance the economic interests of middle class Americans” by 49-44 percent.

“At this point, Romney is not well-defined in the minds of many voters, especially those in the middle,” Brown said. “his movement reflects that uncertainty among voters who are up for grabs.” That. too, does not augur well for Romney, whose name recognition has not been an issue, and whose positions, such as they are, have been on display throughout the Republican primary debates.

A few other notable findings in the Florida poll: military households disapprove of Obama’s job performance by 59-39 percent. Born-again evangelicals disapprove, 74-24 percent. Obama’s likability remains at significant highs: overall, 76 percent find him likable, including 57 percent of Republicans, 81 percent of independents and 72 percent of military households. Comparatively, only 66 percent of evangelicals find him likable.

Romney’s likability contrasts sharply with Obama’s: just 60 percent find him likable overall, mostly on the strength of Republicans (84 percent). Only 60 percent of independents but 77 percent of evangelicals find him likable. He does well among the rich, too: while fewer than 60 percent find him likable in households making $50,000 or less, his likability rises to 75 percent for households making more than $100,000 a year.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,697 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points from June 12-18. Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 698 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

Other recent polls:

An Associated Press poll released today shows Obama winning by 3 percent nationally. Rasmussen Tracking has Romney winning by 4 percent. Gallup has Romney up by 2, Bloomberg has Obama up by 13. Real Clear Politics’s composite polling has Obama up by 2.1 percent nationally, with Obama ahead in Ohio by 1.8 percent, in Florida by 1.8 percent, and in Virginia by 3 percent.

Real Clear Politics's latest composite polling, Romney-Obama.

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36 Responses for “Florida’s Hispanics Like Obama Over Romney By Big Margin, Dimming Rubio’s VP Appeal”

  1. Anon says:

    What the Quinnipiac University poll cannot factor into their calculation is the boost that Romney will get through Rick Scott’s efforts to disenfranchise voters.

    The so-called fraud solution in search of a problem.

    • sam8131 says:

      Or Obama’s failed Affordable HealthCare act going down the tubes. Or the continued descent of the world’s and our economy. Or the Syrian debacle. Or Obama’ s failure in the middle esat. Did I mention jobs and the sinking economy? Can’t wait for the gas prices to go up again. Wait till all the new money hits the strees and inflations starts. Did I mention the lack of jobs? What’s the black unemployment rate? What’s the hispanic unemployment rate? Good job obama!

  2. question says:

    Re Survey: Looks like we’re going to show this thread may be sadly– accurate:

    Democrats Outpacing Republicans In Florida Registrations, But Not in Flagler

    The same tea party/conservative idiocy that wants to send the senior United States Senator, a former Space Shuttle astronaut , Senator Bill Nelson, packing.

    No sir…only unindicted Medicare Fraud kings [& anything the NRA wants] get our vote]!

    • sam8131 says:

      Space Program is shut down, we don’t need an astronaut to be in congress. We need an economist/businessman, Thomas Swoell!

  3. Clint says:

    Polls are “worthless garbage”. Not only will Obumbo lose, he will be arrested and charged with TREASON after the elections along with his commie buddy Eric Holder .

  4. Bonnie Bellin says:

    I rest my case!
    fellow alleged “treasonous commie”

  5. Think first, act second says:

    I believe the caption to the picture is wrong, I think it was Nelson telling Obama that he was not helping, just like the NC, WV congressmen/women and senators have told the DNC that they will not be attending the DNC convention in Charlotte. They can’t even draw a crowd of their own believers.
    Maybe Soros will send Obama some more money so he can buy some more votes.

  6. roco says:

    Look at Obama’s expression. It look like he’s asking himself, what am I doing here with this loser.

  7. Yellowstone says:

    Hey Clint-

    Still got medical insurance? Have you run out of unemployment? Still looking for one of those jobs anywhere in the public sector; ie, fixing roads, bridges, teaching school, firefighter, policeman, county or city job?

    If your answer is “No” to any question – FIND OUT WHO IT IS VOTING AGAINST YOUR BEST INTERESTS. You’ll be better informed rather than belivieng the hate mail.

    Take names and vote correctly next time.

    • NortonSmitty says:

      You mean so we get the results we have gotten for the last three years as reward for voting correctly last time?

  8. gatorfan1 says:

    obama and nelson both need to go and sooner rather than later. nelson was fleecing the american public when obama was in grade school…..bub bub byeeeee!!

  9. NortonSmitty says:

    Here’s the real punchline to all of you well informed students showing of what you learned at PolySci101 at the Murdoch School of Mayberry Machiavellian Thought as well as the supporters from the Moonbeam School of Hope and Change: Your both Suckers!

    Anybody that would support the Republican Party after eight years of Bush/Cheney is not even worth an insult and is too damn stoopid to waste any sarcasm or parody on.

    And also those of you who are still posting in defense of the Nobel prize winning Harvard educated Constitutional scholar who promised us change and salvation from the Evil Republican Bastards who Tortured, Killed and Spied on us all, But somehow he is doubling down on every abuse we railed at from the Bushies. Torture, spying, drone murder, prosecuting whistleblowers and dissent. You still support him after this because he isn’t a Republican? You sad desperate fools.

    A pox on both your houses! If you think Obama is running this country today any more that the drunken, coke-snorting Air Force deserting son of the ex Director of the CIA was before him, you have to shut off your TV, pull your head out of your ass and wake up.

    We all know we are getting screwed, that’s obvious. But you have to realize that whoever the American media is telling you who that is THEY ARE LYING!!! You both know this. We all do in our hearts.

    In the words of The Master:

    Your neighbor is not your enemy. The ones who stole our Government are.

  10. pollworker says:

    You should be thanking Obama for for getting us out of some of the mess Bush put us in.
    Obama had nothing to do with the bottom falling our. It started with the wars after 9/11. Bush was after the wrong man. Obama got the right one.
    The Republican business man is not creating any new jobs because they want Obama to loose.
    You should get your facts right before you vote. We have a lot of people voting because of a party or one issue. Listen to the news and read your newspaper. Talk among some friends could be unfortunate.
    Don’t believe all you hear. Find out the facts.
    If you have Social Security and Medicare you should be thankful. If you do not need it, vote foe Romney.
    If you vote for Romney your children will never see S.S. or Medicare.

    • sam8131 says:

      I don’t believe all I hear. Only what I observe, Now tell me about all of obama’s great accomplishments.

      Fisrt president to have our credit rating lowered.
      Kills people, including Americans with drones.
      Lets the leader of Egypt fall, a man who has helped and stood by to help America and Israel.
      Went to war without the consent of congress.
      Okays foreign drilling offshore, restricts American drilling.
      Overregulates and keeps businesses guessing about new regulations.
      Touts transparency; but dosen’t live up to it!
      Bypasses Congress with executuive orders creating new laws.
      Takes million dollar vacation while the country is in 16T debt.
      Gives donor green companies millions of taxpayer dollars with no recourse of recovery if the company fails.
      Tells Russia where each one of our nuclear missiles is located in the British military.
      Rams through an unaffordable “Affordable HealthCare Act”
      Refuses to let state agencies to enforce federal laws.
      Picks and chosses the laws he will defend wether he has sworn to defend them or not.
      Distorts facts and figures to sway people with lies and half truths.
      Uses his color to twist peoples arms to vote for him, he is a racist.
      Arrogant, refuses to work with other towards compromise, his way or the high way.
      Takes no responsibility for his decisions or actions.
      Has no negociating skills.
      Surrounds himself with people and advisors who blatently profess to dislike America and its way of life.

  11. NortonSmitty says:

    Polliwog, explain to me how after I voted for the Socialist that got more money from Wall Street than any candidate in History, the one that led me to believe in Hope and Change, the one who made me cry on election night thinking we just elected a Franklin Roosevelt for the 21st Century and turned out to govern like the bastard was Dick Cheney in Blackface, please Polli explain to me before I fail to figure out how I can possibly extend this paragraph any longer to make the point that politics are irrelevant today as long as both parties are owned by people who don’t give a fuck about you or me or the idiots who take MSNBC or Fox seriously, the people that think they are well informed and patriotic because they would screw up their idiot neighbor because they don’t understand they are being played, unlike themselves. Whew!

    Your neighbor is not your enemy, the people who are convincing you he is ARE!

  12. Dorothea says:


    When you find your utopian paradise where heads of state don’t lie and people don’t kill each other over religion, politics, and power, let me know. When you find your perfect world where there are no shades of gray and there are only your standards of right and wrong, let me know. Perhaps you and Newt Gringrich can establish a perfect utopian colony on the moon.

    • Magnolia says:

      Dorothea: It’s really simple for me. I ask myself the question, “have things gotten better or are they worse?”

      There is no utopian paradise, but I most definitely don’t want more of this. In my view, you don’t get rewarded with reelection for this.

    • NortonSmitty says:

      Dorthea Darlin’ we know there never has or never will be a utopia, but this country has been getting less free, less fair and less democratic (Small d) since, oh, I’d say about 1963. November 22nd to be exact. And it’s going downhill faster every day. I believe it’s really too late to actually do anything about it, but I swore years ago I was going down laughing and wiggling my ears at all of us fools that let it happen.

      It’s the least I can do for Humanity.

  13. Anonymous says:

    After almost 4 years and another 5 TRILLION of debt is this Republic better off??? No its not.

  14. Dorothea says:


    I’m not sure you get what Smitty is saying. Smitty thinks that both candidates are equally bad. Here’s what Smitty said about people who vote for Republicans:

    “Anybody that would support the Republican Party after eight years of Bush/Cheney is not even worth an insult and is too damn stoopid to waste any sarcasm or parody on.”

    If you aren’t going to vote for Obama, who will you support in order to keep Obama from being reelected? Unless of course you are one of the stoopid (sic) people that Smitty refers to.

    • Magnolia says:

      Dorothea, I’m gonna support ANYBODY BUT Obama. You gonna call me a racist now?

      [Dorothea and Magnolia, you both are better than this.–FL]

      • Magnolia says:

        Dorothea, here’s the problem…the economy is killing us all. To me, this is not about “stopping him from being reelected.” I rarely support incumbents unless they have shown me something exceptional. I didn’t like it when Bush was President, I’m not liking it now.

        I watch him bail out wall street, the banks, the car companies. And I see 25% of the nation’s homeless children right here in Florida. (Those children come with parents, families). Just try to find a cheap motel room anywhere in the Orlando area. They have become homeless shelters for a quarter of the kids in this country. Have you heard any politician speak about these children, even once? About the empty homes everywhere? Hillary is out there giving billions to foreign countries.

        With the money they’ve spent, we could all be living in mansions, have college tuition and lifetime medical care all taken care of. Once again, a politician lied.

        All those evil people we keep hearing about received help from this administration, but not those who need it the most. He’s helping the unions, the immigrants, every special interest in the country who can vote for him, but not us.

        You don’t keep reelecting the same people if you expect to see something different. That goes for every elected politician in Washington. Not ONE of them have even acknowledged the American devastation going on now. We have no leaders anymore. We have lifetime politicos…It is all about them.

        So I will vote for Romney and if I am embarrassed four years from now, you may call me whatever you wish. But I just can’t support this anymore. I haven’t been this embarrassed since Nixon was President.

        I’d rather YOU were President. I’m not stoopid, I’m the last person on the planet you’d call a racist, I just don’t want to see this continue. Time is running out for us all.

        I’m not gonna waste my vote. I’m voting for the other guy.

  15. Dorothea says:


    At the risk of alienating FL, I will answer the question you raised. This is what Magnolia said,
    ““have things gotten better or are they worse?”

    My answer is that things have gotten better. This link pretty much sums it up.

    I judge the question based on the state of the country, not the state of my personal life and I have no idea if you are a racist. Since I’ve been admonished by FL, I’ll refrain from answering as I normally would, but the answer would have contained the words “shoe and fit”, not glove and acquit.

  16. Dorothea says:


    My dearest Norton, the pendulum of politics has swung from right to left and left to right in perfect balance since we adopted our Constitution. I would date the beginning of the end of this balance, not from the death of JFK, but from Dec. 11, 2000 when a conservative Supreme Court appointed George Bush, president of the United States. It’s been all downhill since then. But, unlike you, I prefer to adjust to the consequences of SCOTUS’ political appointment rather than giving up on our country altogether. I owe it to my kids and grandkids to support Obama becaue the election of Romney would deliver a death blow that I don’t believe this country would ever recover from.

  17. John Boy says:

    The election will be determined by the number of Republicans and Tea Bggers who get their white sheets back from the dry cleaners and are not out of town attending the National KKK Convention.

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